Net Assessment

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the 2024 ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute State of Southeast Asia Survey, in which regional experts assess power trends and perceptions among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The report yields some warning signs for the United States in the region, suggesting that the Biden team has much more work to do in Southeast Asia. Chris and Melanie worry about American shipbuilding while Zack commends and critiques American and Japanese leaders for announcements connected to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Washington. This episode's reading.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, created by the U.S. intelligence agencies. The report focuses on state actors and transnational issues that could be challenges to the United States in the coming year. What major threats does the United States face in the next year? What are we too worried about? What should we be concerned about that we aren’t paying attention to? With so many challenges, where should our focus be? Zack congratulates contributors to the new BlueBlaze newsletter, Chris commends the Veterans Studies Association, and Melanie wonders why New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez is still in Congress and getting classified briefings. This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie and Zack take a close look at the United States’ relationship with countries in Latin America. Why has the United States neglected Latin America in the last several decades? Should the United States government up its game in order to compete for influence with China in its own hemisphere? And, if so, how? And will improving U.S. ties in the region help to alleviate the immigration situation on the southern border? Grievances for Donald Trump's love for TikTok, Americans ignoring Haiti, and Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz who can't get along. Attas to Sen Roger Wicker for noting for months that there won't be enough money for shipbuilding — and being right!; to the members of the House who voted to compel TikTok to divest from Bytedance; and to Sen. Bernie Sanders and five other senators for calling for a new Truman Commission to root out wartime profiteering. This episode's reading:

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss an article on the concept of unbalanced multipolarity by Emma Ashford and Evan Cooper. They debate what might happen if the United States pulls back from its leadership role in Europe and the rest of the world. Would America’s absence lead to global or regional disorder? Would allies step up to take some of the burden off Washington? Or would competing regional blocs emerge? Melanie laments the lack of progress on funding the Compacts of Free Association, Chris criticizes a publication decision by the New York Times, and Zack questions JD Vance’s approach to addressing defense industry shortfalls. Full episode reading.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to talk about the new National Defense Industrial Strategy. Is this document really a strategy? What are the biggest problems we need to fix with respect to our defense industrial base? Considering the state of where we are now, is it even possible to get our industrial house in order in the near term to deter or prevail in a conflict with an adversary? Chris has a grievance for those who couldn’t believe Donald Trump’s recent NATO comments (where have they been for the last eight years?), Zack thanks Rep. Mike Gallagher for his service, and Melanie is unhappy with the response to legislators trying to come to an agreement on the difficult issue of immigration reform. This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie and Zack review the Council on Foreign Relations’ annual Preventive Priorities Survey, which asked foreign policy experts to rank 30 current and possible future conflicts relative to their likelihood and impact on U.S. national interests. The leading threat, according to these experts, was of political violence or domestic terrorism in the United States associated with the 2024 presidential election. Other leading threats were the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East arising out of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and of continued migration from Central America and Mexico. The three consider these, as well as others that fell farther down the list, and asked, how can these be prioritized? What is being done to stop them? And what is the broader value in engaging in these ranking exercises in the first place? Grievances for the Biden administration’s short-sighted new regulations on liquified natural gas, U.S. Middle East policy (does it make sense to anyone?), and the way our broken politics manages to infect even an all-American love story like Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Can we just give it a rest? Attaboys to Navy Comptroller and friend-of-War of the Rocks Russell Rumbaugh, and Capt. Chris “Chowda” Hill, the commanding officer of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), and to the show for reaching 1 million downloads. This episode's reading.

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate whether the international order is fraying and if so, what to do about it. They focus in particular on the recent Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and discuss how the United States should respond. Melanie questions Liz Truss's support of expedited defense exports to China and Chris laments the lack of communication around Lloyd Austin's delegation of authority while Zack makes Chris a job offer he can refuse.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie ring in the new year with a discussion on whether or not "The U.S. Needs More Foreign Entanglements," as writer Andreas Kluth argues. What, exactly, is an entangling alliance? How should the United States manage relationships with some of our more tricky partners? Is it politically possible to extricate ourselves from relationships that no longer serve American interests?   Besides giving the usual grievances and attaboys, the gang looks ahead in 2024. Chris would like to see more coverage of the positive aspects of AI, Melanie is keeping eyes on the new Argentine President Milei as he sets about trying to reform the economic and political systems, and Zack is pessimistic about the upcoming presidential election.   This episode's reading.

On this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the so-called “new Washington Consensus” – a reaction to decades of trade liberalization and free market economics that, some warn, has undermined national security and left the United States and others vulnerable to economic coercion. In a recent article, Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman spell out the rationale behind new restrictions on foreign trade and investment and warn that “nothing less than a transformation of the U.S. government” is necessary to ensure that measures taken to protect our security don’t also weaken the global economy. Grievances for the impenetrable National Defense Authorization Act, Venezuela’s land grab, and Sen. Rick Scott’s ploy to designate garlic -- yes, garlic -- as vital to U.S. national security. Attapeople in this holiday season to those who deliver our packages, to Congress for delivering the National Defense Authorization Act, and to Finland for promising to deliver more munitions in 2024.   This episode's reading.

Net Assessment is back! Chris, Melanie, and Zack return after a hiatus and start by debating a recent article entitled “The Dysfunctional Superpower” by Robert Gates. They agree that Washington is deeply dysfunctional, but disagree about what can be done to overcome political obstacles and the degree to which this dysfunction gives Russia and China an edge. Chris questions additional inflation adjustments for fixed price defense contracts, Melanie criticizes the United Nations' unwillingness to recognize sexual violence in Gaza, and Zack welcomes new colleague Todd Harrison to the American Enterprise Institute.   This episode's reading. 

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss Ashley Tellis’s newest article, “America’s Bad Bet on India.” Tellis argues that if America thinks India will fight on its side in a conflict with China, “Washington’s expectations of India are misplaced….New Delhi will never involve itself in any U.S. confrontation with Beijing that does not directly threaten its own security.” Should the United States expect the world’s largest democracy to come to its aid if there is a conflict with China over Taiwan? What does New Delhi want out of its relationship with Washington? Will India’s democratic backsliding affect its relationship with the United States? Chris has a shoutout for Dr. Jennifer Lind for an article well done, Zack has complaints about the overreaction to news of Cuba possibly hosting a Chinese spy base, and Melanie congratulates War on the Rocks friend Will Inboden on his new post.   Episode Reading:  https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/is-washington-making-a-bad-bet-on-india

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss a recent article by Rosella Cappella Zielinski and Samuel Gerstle in the Texas National Security Review. Zielinski and Gerstle explain why the United States should fund the defense budget with higher taxes, not more debt, while conceding that this will be a tough sell for a country trying to maintain the status quo, as opposed to rising powers like China that are trying to upset it. Are they right? Must taxes be raised in the United States to pay for competition with China? If so, can the Biden administration and Congress craft a message that will resonate with the public? Or is there another way to produce the money that will go for long-term defense? Grievances for Jake Sullivan’s speech at the Brookings Institute, yet the latest sign of the Biden administration’s protectionist turn; NATO’s plan to expand to the Indo-Pacific; and Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama) for blocking military promotions. Shoutouts to the Australian government for their new Defence Strategic Review and a remembrance of Allen Gyngell, the noted Australian security expert, who recently passed away.   Episode Reading:  https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/paying-the-costs-of-competition

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether the world is multipolar and discuss what the United States can do to win support for its preferred policies, particularly in the Global South. They disagree on multipolarity but agree that Washington must pay more attention to non-aligned countries in the months and years ahead. Chris gives a backhanded attaboy to China’s ambassador to France, Melanie commends Elon Musk for SpaceX's Starship launch, and Zack criticizes him for Twitter's labeling of state-affiliated media.   Episode Reading:  https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/multipolarity-what-is-it-good-for

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about a new article by Eric Schmidt on whether the United States can win an innovation race with China. Where is the United States ahead and where is it behind in the tech competition? How should the U.S. government work with private enterprise to maximize defense innovation and procurement? Can the United States overcome obstacles, many self-imposed, to accelerate and sharpen innovative enterprises? Chris congratulates Dr. Elizabeth Samet for a book well done, Zack is unhappy about possible leaks of American intelligence assessments about the Ukraine war, and Melanie congratulates Congress for doing its job.   Episode Reading:  https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/technology-defense-and-the-american-chinese-competition

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss several recent articles focused on alliance burden sharing. Should America want Europe to be dependent on it for Europe’s defense? Is the leverage the United States obtains over European allies because of their dependence worth the cost? Is it even possible for Europe to have collective defense? Should the American public accept that U.S citizens will have to defend Europe because European governments won’t defend themselves? Will the United States inevitably be drawn into intra-European fights? Grievances toward the U.S. mission in Syria, the Biden administration’s next Summit of Democracies, and Tik Tok. Attas for Gen. Mark Milley, Israeli citizens protesting a judicial reform proposal that lacks wide popular support, and to a group of Ukrainians who have just completed training in Oklahoma on the Patriot air defense system. Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/better-burden-sharing-with-allies

Is AUKUS flawed by design? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the AUKUS deal, particularly the newly announced plan for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. Is this the best way to get a critical capability in Australian hands? Does it make sense from a cost or capability perspective? And should the United States be worried about selling Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s, right at the moment of greatest need? In addition, Chris commends Europe for stepping up, Melanie critiques President Biden’s execution of the CHIPS Act, and Zack warns about underinvestment in Asia.   This episode's reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/is-aukus-flawed-by-design

Chris and Melanie sit down with Aaron Stein, chief content officer at War on the Rocks and co-author of a new report on Turkey’s new, more independent foreign policy. Why has Ankara changed its foreign policy course over the last few decades? What does this foreign policy mean for United States interests? How should Turkey’s NATO allies respond when it seems to act against the alliance? What might the upcoming elections mean for the Turkish-U.S. relationship? Chris is unhappy with some defenses of the Iraq invasion, Aaron praises those who worked so hard out of the spotlight to evacuate people safely from Afghanistan, and Melanie is impressed with some journalism at the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This episode's reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/turkeys-more-independent-foreign-policy

Melanie, Zack, and Chris, survey the course of Russia’s brutal war of aggression in Ukraine at the one-year point, with a focus on a recent paper by RAND’s Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe. How did we get here? What key assumptions have been tested? And what does that mean for the future? How do U.S. and Ukrainian interests in this war align or conflict? Does a long war serve anyone’s interest? And what are the prospects that this war will end any time soon? Grievances for China’s mishandling of the balloon fiasco, and to Disney for bowing to the Chinese Communist Party’s implicit censorship. Attapeople to those negotiating a new Compact of Free Association with countries in the South Pacific, for the few smart voices trying to dial down the hysteria over balloons, and to those members of Congress hoping to repeal the 2002 Iraq war AUMF. This Episode's Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/one-year-of-war-in-ukraine

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Frank Hoffman’s recent article in War on the Rocks about the broader implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine. They discuss whether defensive systems are dominant and how long Russia will take to recapitalize its forces, as well as what this means for future conflicts and U.S. posture globally. Chris warns that the United States is not learning from past conflicts, Melanie welcomes continued support for Hong Kongers, and Zack laments Turkey’s renewed opposition to Sweden’s entry into NATO. Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/learning-lessons-from-ukraine-is-defense-dominant

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about a new assessment of President Biden’s foreign policy two years into his administration. Using “A Better Biden Doctrine” by Stephen Wertheim and Matthew Duss as the foundation, the team looks at how well Biden has kept the foreign policy promises he made on the campaign trail, whether he has made incremental or fundamental changes, and what he might be able to accomplish in the next two years. They also consider what policies progressives might hope are given more attention the rest of this term. Chris and Zack have complaints about negligent handling of classified materials by high level officials and the excuses for it, and Melanie gives a shout out to Canada for some new defense initiatives. Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/looking-back-at-president-bidens-foreign-policy