Claim OwnershipThoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Subscribed: 363Played: 17,149
Subscribe
© Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money
Description
Actionable insights on building wealth from the top experts in money & the markets
Hosted by Adam Taggart
Hosted by Adam Taggart
115 Episodes
Reverse
In markets as in life, sentiment drives decision making.
And until sentiment shifts, the status quo will maintain. Even when at extreme conditions.
Today's guest has made the study of sentiment his life's work.
Which is particularly timely given that consumer confidence continues to plunge, with the recent April Consumer Confidence numbers coming in far below the consensus estimate.
This is important because when it comes to the markets, as well as a number of other issues central to our way of life, we may be walking dangerously close to a tipping point where the prevailing sentiment suddenly reverses and the herd bolts in an unexpected direction -- potentially leading to sharp changes most will be caught unawares by.
So what do we need to be keeping our eyes on most closely?
To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, and author of the book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity.
We'll ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2024.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#socialunrest #bullmarket #sentiment
Stocks markets have had a massive run since November of last year and all the major indices -- the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDAQ - have hit all-time highs this week.
US GDP growth for the current quarter is currently predicted to be 3.6%, global economic growth as measured by PMIs has turned positive for the first time in 2 years, the official unemployment rate remains below 4%, the most important stock to the markets -- Nvidia -- just beat expectations on earnings & revenues...
So it's unsurprising the bulls are feeling large & in charge right now. Talk of hitting S&P 6000 later this year is getting louder.
Is that likely?
In heady times like these, turning to the data & navigating by what it's telling us is often highly useful. Which is why we're fortunate to have one of the best technical analysts in the industry, Tom McClellan, joining us today to share his latest interpretation of the current market action.
Tom is watching several key indicators that, if their decades-long correlation with the stock market continues to hold, suggest a material correction is coming in the second half of this year.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#stockmarketcorrection #stockcrash #oilprice
It's been a week to remember for stocks...
After the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ each hitting all-time highs earlier this week, Nvidia blew past expectations on both revenue and earnings, eclipsing $2.5 trillion in market value.
The bulls are feeling large & in charge as a result, though stocks may take breather soon -- as signaled by Thursday's bloodbath in the markets despite Nvidia's big beat.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees stocks as extended and overbought in the near term, and expects a "cooling off" period to happen soon.
We discuss the reasons why, as well as recession risk, the latest employment data, technical indicators, and our advice to job seekers in this Weekly Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#nvidia #jobs #stockmarket
Today's guest is best known for publishing the world's most respected annual analysis of the precious metals market, known as the In Gold We Trust Report.
It covers what's driving supply & demand, the performance of the metals vs the companies that mine them, and what the outlook for prices is.
This year's report, subtitled The New Gold Playbook, was just issued last week -- all 400+ pages of it. To learn its highlights, we're fortunate to speak today with one of its co-authors, Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Managing Partner & Fund Manager at Incrementum AG.
Ronnie calculates that the bull market in gold is still in the early "Accumulation" phase. That will be followed by the "Public Participation" and "Distribution" phases.
Before the bull run is over, Ronnie sees gold being substantially re-priced higher.
Access the new 400+ page In Gold We Trust report, for free, at https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/34291/?lang=en
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#gold #goldprice #preciousmetals
After a blowout Q1, stocks swooned in April, raising concerns the bull rally had ended.
Nope.
The bulls returned in May and as of this recording, the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ are all trading at all-time-highs.
Wall Street is confident, the financial media is downright gleeful, and the market momentum has a lot of tailwinds behind it right now.
But...there are headwinds, too.
Which will win out as we head closer to the uncertainty of the November elections?
For perspective, we're fortunate today to talk with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth.
Cameron thinks that markets still have room to run here. But she warns that if the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, it may have the OPPOSITE effect of what investors are hoping for.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#interestrates #ratecuts #investing
While the official unemployment rate remains at a low 3.9%, there is an epidemic in the US and other Western countries of men -- and now increasingly women -- without work.
These are millions of otherwise able-bodied working age adults who have given up on finding work, often driven to do so out of frustration and despair. It's gotten to the point where 1 in 6 prime working age men has no paid work at all.
What is causing this?
And what can be done about it?
Because when an increasing percentage of your prime working age population stops contributing to economic productivity, not only do they suffer the consequences of diminished prosperity -- we all do.
For a deep dive into this pressing crisis, we're fortunate to speak today with Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and author of the book Men Without Work.
Get Nicholas' book here: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Without-Work-Americas-Invisible/dp/1599474697
Follow Nicholas at https://aei.org/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#unemployment #jobs #depression
Three week's ago, the S&P had fallen below 5,000 and Wall Street was worried the party in stocks might be over.
Nope.
Stocks rebounded and, as of today, the S&P, Dow, and (almost) NASDAQ sit at all-time highs.
Technically, it looks like the bull trend is set to continue says portfolio manager Lance Roberts, especially with $1 trillion of announced buybacks set to flow into markets through the rest of the year. Though stocks have moved so far so fast that a short-term pullback is quite likely.
Lance and I discuss what's driving the current stock surge, the signs he's monitoring to sense when it may be ending, Warren Buffett's latest warning to investors, and Lance's firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#investing #bullmarket #stockbuybacks
When today's guest appeared for the first time on this channel a few months ago, a start was born.
Those who hadn't yet heard of Danielle Park were impressed by both her command of the macro data and her unflinching courage to call things as she sees them.
She highlighted a number of concerns about the trajectory of the economy and markets back then -- and today we check back in with her to see whether things have improved...or gotten worse?
Well, Danielle thinks they're "worse".
Stress cracks in the economy are now much more clearly visible.
And the markets? While they're currently being driven to new highs by "madness" (see: Gamestop), investors hoping for rate cuts may indeed get them. But history shows that stocks fall, often hard, during rate cut regimes.
So investors better be careful what they wish for. And they'd better be prepared. Too many are too long and too confident right now.
To hear how she's positioning client capital right now, watch this video.
Follow Danielle on X/Twitter at @kdaniellepark, on her daily blog at https://jugglingdynamite.com/, or at her website at https://www.venablepark.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#debt #recession #interestrates
Many of the recent housing analysts I've talked with, like in last week's excellent interview with mortgage expert Melody Wright, see tougher times ahead for the real estate market.
So for further context, I thought it would be helpful to get a true "boots on the ground" view from one of America's more successful property investors.
What is he seeing across the thousands of property units in his portfolio?
Is he buying, selling, or holding steady given current market conditions?
And where does he see the housing market headed from here?
For answers, we turn to Ken McElroy, founder and CEO of real estate investment and property management firm MC Companies.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#realestateinvesting #housingmarket #homeprices
It feels like a tale of two economies right now.
If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs.
But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story.
One of hardship, where wages aren't keeping up with the massive spike in cost of living, where companies are reducing hours, freezing hiring or actively laying workers off, and households are increasingly forced to turn to expensive credit cards to fund living essentials.
Which of these is more accurate?
And are things likely to get better or worse from here?
For an expert view, we're lucky today to talk with Stephanie Pomboy, economic and market analysis and proprietor of MacroMavens.com
Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#inflation #deflation #recession
The Dow just had its best week of 2024.
And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows.
As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two.
Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away.
Lance and I walk through the charts, as well as discuss the late-breaking consumer sentiment and jobs data, the wisdom of Freddie Mac's proposal to enter the home equity market, and, of course, his firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#investing #stocks #jobsreport
A few days ago, an article appeared in the Financial Times revealing that "Last month, the government-sponsored mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac filed a proposal with its regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to enter into the secondary mortgage market, otherwise known as home equity loans"
The article's author, Meredith Whitney, claims that if approved, this "could begin to unleash almost $1tn into consumers’ wallets. By the autumn, it could be on its way to $2tn."
That would be a tremendous stimulus to the economy.
But is it a good idea?
Putting aside for a moment concerns of its potential inflationary impact, the Global Financial Crisis was a credit crisis triggered by bad housing loans.
Would allowing the government-sponsored entities like Freddie Mac to unleash a flood of new loans risk repeating the sins of the past?
For answers, we're fortunate to turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#housingmarket #homeequity #mortgageloans
Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions"
And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets.
For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.
Visit David at https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#jobs #recession2024 #interestrates
Stubbornly sticky inflation looks to be turning the Federal Reserve's campaign of Higher For Longer interest rates into "Higher For Even Longer"
Today's guest warns that "Markets are unprepared for price growth that is becoming entrenched".
Nor do they appear prepared for bond yields to remain at today's rates, let alone march higher from here.
Remember, it was only a few short months ago that the markets were pricing in 7 rate cuts in 2024. Now it's appearing they'll be lucky to get only 2 or 3.
And who knows?
They may not get any.
Does this mean financial asset prices need to adjust downward in some material way?
And will the economy slow faster than expected from here?
Perhaps the recent weakness we've saw in stocks in April was Wall Street finally awakening to these potential ramifications.
For an analyst's perspective on the matter, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#volatility #bullmarket #interestrates
1Since today's guest was last on this program back in December, the world has continued to fracture geopolitically.
Where is that trend taking us?
And what will the impact be on global prosperity?
The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Canada, Europe and Australia.
So to provide a perspective from a non-Western point of view, I'm pleased to welcome Michael Every back onto the program.
Michael is Global Strategist at Rabobank, and joins us from Thailand.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#geopolitics #trade #investing
Stock prices are compressing in a wedge pattern suggesting the market is going to make a breakout soon.
But in which direction?
We'll soon know for sure, but portfolio manager Lance Roberts' models triggered a buy signal today. So he thinks the odds favor the bulls.
Why discuss why in today's Market Recap, as well react to this week's Fed guidance, the new payroll data, the impact massive buyback programs from companies like Google and Apple are having on the markets, and the most common ways regular investors sabotage their success.
Lance also shares the latest trades his firm made this week.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#federalreserve #inflation #jobs
Yesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.
Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in June. US Treasury roll-off will be reduced to $25 billion per month, down from the current $60 billion per month.
Above and beyond that, Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is proving more stubborn to tame than the Fed hoped at the start of the year, and that getting it down sustainably to the Fed's 2% target will "take longer than previously expected". This essentially is admitting that interest rates will stay hike for EVEN longer.
In this video, Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart to provide an immediate reaction to the Fed's guidance and take live Q&A from the viewing audience.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#interestrates #inflation #federalreserve
If we care about the future of the economy, then we have to pay close attention to the policies that shape it.
We are currently living in an age of extreme -- and in certain cases, unprecedented -- levels of monetary and fiscal policy.
Is that wise? Or should market forces be allowed to play out more & free us from the constant intervention of the central planners?
To explore this, we welcome economist Dr Arthur Laffer. Dr Laffer was the first to hold the title of Chief Economist at the Office of Management and Budget in the early 1970s. He then later served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board. He's perhaps best known for developing the Laffer curve, a model for determining the optimal balance between tax revenues and economic growth.
Dr Laffer sees the major nations of the world declining into a sclerotic senescence. BUT...he sees a way for us to reverse that plight, on a timeline that could be much faster than many imagine is possible.
The key question is: Will we have the conviction, courage and commitment to embrace the necessary reforms?
For an important discussion with a respected economic advisor to nearly every President since Nixon, watch this video with Dr Art Laffer.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#taxes #internationaltrade #economics
In order to succeed, it's critical to understand the rules you're playing by.
And the rules for investing may have recently changed.
There's a good argument to be made that we are now in an era of fiscal dominance.
Today's guest, one of the smarter you'll get the chance to hear from, is certainly making that case.
So what exactly is fiscal dominance?
Why is it important for investors to understand?
And which assets do well, and which do poorly, in such an era?
To find out, we have the good fortune of speaking today with Lyn Alden, investment strategist & author of the recent book "Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better"
And if time allows, we'll also ask for her outlook on the dollar, gold and Bitcoin.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#fiscaldominance #inflation #recession
Is the market downdraft that sent stocks 5% lower from their recent all-time highs over?
It's looking like it could be.
But the market is at a "critical juncture" observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
The S&P is getting quite close to its 50 and 20 Daily Moving Averages. If it rises above them, then we're likely back off to the races and new all-time highs could be in the future.
But if it fails to do so, then a fall back to the 100 Daily Moving Average is more likely in store.
Lance and I walk through the charts, as well discuss the latest slowdown in GDP growth, the latest hot inflation surprise data, as well as what's happening with bond yields.
This episode is very important to watch if you're 40 years or younger and/or just starting out on your wealth-building journey. Lance shares his simple formula for how to get out of financial survival mode and amass sufficient capital to take control of your financial destiny.
For that, plus everything that mattered to the markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#investing #inflation #interestrates
Download from Google Play
Download from App Store
United States
💚WATCH>>ᗪOᗯᑎᒪOᗩᗪ>>LINK>👉https://co.fastmovies.org
gas is not oil. he sure could do with some self development
Adam, you can not have Mr Dale on without a link to his charts.