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AHCApocalypse II

Update: 2017-04-28
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Live at Vox Conversations, Sarah, Ezra, and Matt discuss the GOP's doomed effort to reboot Obamacare repeal and the White House's 'new' tax reform 'plan.'

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the Venetian be confusing or frustrating but it helps answer the question What is the best way to invest my money and investing involves risk but right now we as listeners can get one month managed free for more information visit betterment dot com slash weeds that's betterment dot com slash weeds betterment investing made better hi guys here's a live bonus episode of weeds recorded the conversations conference earlier this year the usual weeds I I yeah did I buy Hello and welcome to a live episode of weeds policy podcast on the box media podcast Network which a daring production tax and I'm working on it and we really got to be with you off this been like a super busy week in policy so much so that we not even going to probably have a chance to address the Canadian soft wood lumber dispute the I happen to feel passionately about what he'll be our gear one sentence on Canadian soft wood lumber dispute one sentence is actually right in that move the one the tumors and the uh now that we're going to wait an extra year the Canadian I The happening is outrageous but I know I I think we want to talk about the big tax reform plans that are coming down the road but also because we talk about health care all the time and that there is new health care repeal happen maybe not but we before we see the tough yesterday at this level of health care from news is that it's her ruined the entire congressional Republicans on this day I I I would also as we show that on a not quite this side of the story which I think is actually an important story because what was happening and the level of confusion speaks maybe to broader dynamics within this ongoing health care process that are worth trying out a little bit less attacks I think Matt you're going to kick us off right on what's going on at the text so don't come when the election in a while ago he was inaugurated a thing was ninety seven days ago he's been working on his tax reform plan and it was released yesterday to great fanfare and it is a one page document it has I think eight bullet points it is basically the same vein the tax plan he had the campaign but they took out some of the details the Treasury secretary claims that a hundred staffers were on it it's about two hundred words long as the and what it what it amounts to a This was a campaign plan tax policy was not a big focus during the campaign but Trump is proposing basically a very large tax cut is proposing to eliminate the estate tax entirely he's proposing to eliminate the alternative minimum tax entirely both the provisions that only how the most affluent families proposing to cut the corporate income tax rate to fifteen percent is proposing cuts in all the individual rates there's a very slight pay for an elimination of some tax deductions but that the biggest ones are staying on the table I guess most intriguing is he's putting forward the proposition that I pass through business entities which is basically a at a partnership business opposed to a big publicly held company should also be taxed at fifteen percent grade and they characterize that as a small business tax rate but the sense in which the businesses or small is a very small number of owners so like Donald Trump's business is a quote small business by that standard I wish she would not otherwise ordinarily call in a small business and delivering a gigantic tax cut to himself it's really impossible to say anything about the other parameters like he says what the three tax brackets will be but not what income level no staff is obviously influences that and yes only nobody knows what they've been doing for the past four months why would take a hundred people to copy and paste the campaign website to read a quote that are calling Jim Hankins who loves tax reform the way Sarah loves health care I got of this because I really never would've expected to read this quote about a tax plan the release by Republican presidential President I guess is where we are in life to this Alan Cole was an economist at the Tax Foundation that explanation just to get the CBC ecosystem right here the Tax Foundation are the people who exist to cut taxes like VAT is their role in life made you a lot of good research they do good work I've relied on their on their work before but they are a organization oriented to favorable analyses of tax cuts and South Col says about this plan we are just in the Trix mode even though it's a chance to do something he said that Trump officials still think of how to stop play on cable news they built a culture that is not ideologically predisposed to listening to someone who cares about little details it feels like we're in a kind of perpetual campaign as a result there is no policy that is searing from the Tax Foundation on a plan that if they come out with really tells I think that the expedition would have liked a lot of pieces of it and it also suggests how little actual policy process is happening they're not going to the organizations around town Republican presidential position normally go to and talk to them and get there by and get their support and deal with their concerns this is exactly what happened on health care to them where they had no support and it looks like they're building the same process on taxes on only this time out of the White House itself but I think that's actually a huge difference because the granting of the healthcare process you Paul Ryan did actually write a bill was super unpopular and they did not consult a lot of health care groups on it who quickly came out against if they actually rode through you could analyze it you could say here's what would change for people like you or you get is you know details about here is how the subsidies will change for someone or earns thirty thousand dollars and fifty years old this doesn't really get to that level like now was saying there's three tax brackets but you don't know who is in which tax bracket which isn't very very hard for someone like Ellen called the Texan vision to say we think about it and if you think there's almost it feels like there's a cost releasing something like this that releasing something like this almost moves things backwards rather than forward because it seems to suggest that the administration is naive thinking seriously about what they actually want to do on the side is actually very different from the healthcare process because the process trumpet a very similar in terms of a granular D health care plan has been busily will be Obamacare and allow insurance across state lines it was like nah it was the same link a bunch of bullet points I did that never really got rolled out they went a totally different directions they actually spelled out the details of yours would look like this feels very different that we're starting from a place where it's just big sweeping when wedge and like you know causing the quote you're reading that there's not any sort of attention to the Granville area that seems to almost stop them backwards on tax reform to say like Well this doesn't look like a partner who really liked once alike engage in policy issues when it was interesting is that Josh and dossier has that story in Politico today in which he reports that the White House's understanding of this is that it's the complete opposite of what they did hear that they've learned their lessons from health care thing and that the problem with the healthcare bill was that they outsource that bill writing to Paul Ryan this time by going to keep in house and instead of any particular in this way to the House Republicans have been working on his tax plan that journalists love to talk about because it involves an exotic new tax that was the destination based caf attacks the very few rooms you can get a laugh the uh the the I think actively constructed as a joke the town had tried to sort a dumb it down icon of the border just attacks really all consumption tax is adjusted and it's it's it's much more nuance anyways lot of shade the are are sweeping that all aside and basically reiterating their campaign promise to do the I was in its simplistic like it's just a task like there is that standard deduction is going to get bigger their rates and they're going to go down there's no real reform I mean they can call it tax reform but there's no there's no change in the conceptual underpinnings of the tax code is just going to raise revenue and they don't address the question you mean this to be permanent or temporary are you looking at the sixty votes or fifty about things like the process bullet point on the document and its like this is the beginning of a process we're going to talk with senators and members of Congress so it's not it's it's clear that there was a big push to get some stuff out the door this week because of the hundred days staying and it's not clear that there is any thought as to like how does this make it more likely that a tax cutting bill will pass two months from now worse is if they had just said we have those campaign pledges and we're working to try to make them happy so I think it's important to spend a moment here on that fifty six he does it go perm and is a temporary issue because this is in the same way that the healthcare bill one of the foundational problems they have never figured out that they did not have sixty votes they needed to do reconciliation which meant they couldn't do a lot of regulations which meant a lot of their core framework fell apart here to have the same issues so what they want to do in theory is permanent tax cut passed with fifty one votes in the set because there's no way to getting sixty for anything in the neighborhood what they're looking at the walls of that fifty one vote process of reconciliation are among other things it cannot increase the budget deficit after ten years so when the Joint Committee on taxation scores to spell it cannot in years eleven through twenty make the deficit go up when your plan is a multi trillion dollar unpaid for tax cuts one of its outcomes is the budget deficit goes up in the long term so the Bush administration had the same problem and what they did with what I think I actually forget how insane it was they just said the tax went away after ten years ago literally on the day of the ten year know like the tax is gone so wouldn't have the deficit all what you can do and what ended up happening was Obama took away the tax increases for the very very rich tax cut for the very very rich but kept the tax cuts down the line for the cap a lot of that tax cut it back but a lot of Republicans in this is a problem because if you want to get the supply side effects you want to convince businesses they can invest if you want to get all the things that tax reform is supposed to do you have to give businesses certainty this is going to stick around C wanted to be permanent that's what Kevin Brady the head of Ways and Means said it's what Paul Ryan has said it's what the Trump administration has said but for it to be permanent it cannot increase the deficit outside the ten year window or they have to get votes from Democrats they have no plan to do either thing at all and nor do they have any explanation of what they're going to do here so sitting behind this plan in which there's no details there is a process collision which they have no theory about which they have no plan for and which at some level they're going to have to figure out or maybe or maybe not often they just the health care have to go for it early so I have a question from and so was this one in tears but we saw this coming more from a gutsy like the think tank world of the right are like Paul Ryan the mention the destination based Castle attacks arguments a lot of water but that may be a part of it what would this look like if this was like the tax plan coming out of kind of like the mean stream rates at the moment and how that be different from the document we got from his house Republicans had certainly two or three like beacons one is that committed to doing the Affordable Care Act repeal first because repealing the Affordable Care Act involves a very very large long term rights of that Medicaid cut Hayes for a lot of tax cut in the House Republican vision and then they were a revenue neutral reform from the New Low were hosts for peel baseline eight hundred billion dollars Medicaid cuts that yet the axes and then and then you can throw in a little bit of dynamic scoring on top of that get yourself a trillion dollar tax cut at the end they had this idea on the corporate side which was to cut the reign of the courting of actually is thirty five percent we headed down to twenty percent and they were going to try to make that revenue neutral by changing the whole base of the corporate income tax to the destination based caf attacks basically have a tax on imports not exports the little bit complicated but the boys and the difficulty with something like that is that some people have to pay higher taxes and they were objecting to an individual side I think the House Republicans have not gotten as detailed in their own thinking they'd been saying it would be a similar kind of thing will be bringing rates down and closing different kinds of loopholes and deductions the one Republicans like to talk about in this vein is that you can deduct state and local taxes from your federal income tax that mostly helps affluent people who live in liberal states so a lot of conservative members of Congress and is there like least favorite Texan action but this whole mechanism it was a sort of like an intellectual thing of beauty but the problem with it has always been an aide the health care repeal has had very little political appointments at NBC the destination a staff of the destination race I had no support in a set and the interdependence of these two things has been making all their problems worse and worse and worse every time you would hear Tom Cotton cast some doubt on the of the House health care reform plan part of what's going on is that Walmart has its headquarters in Arkansas and they were very opposed to this House tax plan so if they can hold up the health care plan also holding up the tax plan and they were really getting with it so I need to understand somewhere the White House is coming from it's like House Republicans had cooked up this scheme that was like it was kind of brilliant in the way it all work together but it's very complicated everything depends on everything else they were unable to get it moving and also you can sorta see where the frustration comes from ok guys I'm back to basics where Republicans want to cut taxes just take all the numbers and make the numbers low the investing your money can be confusing or frustrating that's why you should try better be smarter goal based investing tools and calculators to help set goals and understand rest are mainstream lines the investing in Taylor's a plan for you target offers lower management fees compared to traditional services like point two five percent on ass under management and they also offer advanced tax saving strategies about a veteran data driven investing strategies in a tech focused user experience that aims to deliver higher returns at a lower cost remember any investing does involve risk but right now the weeds listeners can get one month managed three for more information visit betterment dot com slash its betterment investing made better we're getting deep into the weeds of this planet to back out for a second because everything that's going on here is a Paul and I think it is important to just keep in mind on a basic human citizen level that Donald Trump brand for president and when he was running for president and then very importantly after he was elected president he had among many other things too things that were very different with him from traditional Republicans one was he said he was not one of these Republicans who wanted to cut taxes on rich people he wanted sixty minutes and my my tax plan is going to raise taxes on the very wealthy this actually ended up confusing the media so badly to leave at least an actual plan to cut taxes on wealthy they said it raised taxes but that didn't sew but he said this and then after the election Steve knew can in his treasury hearing says center sector he said rich people are not going to get a tax cut here which we're not really paying any less people might get a tax cut not rich people simultaneously Donald Trump said before the election I'm not what these Republicans who believes like health care should just the government to get out of it everybody's going up health care it's going to be better health care lower deductibles and if you can't pay the government is going to pay he said all of the six election happened he not come out and say I was lying he came out he said everybody's got how healthcare is going to better health care to be lower deductibles the White House's legislative agenda right now current is on the one hand a massive tax cut for rich people on the other hand a healthcare plan that takes hell when a new one scored but takes health care from let's say twenty four million people it's easy all scored in the continually worse and the degree of just promise breaking up fo populace and here is really tremendous now one thing is maybe it doesn't matter maybe nobody cares about I don't really buy that I do think something that is interesting about trauma can be very interesting political theme for him going forward is he was able to run in twenty sixteen without a real record and so is sort of like shredding or strum and everybody can just decide that he supported whatever they wanted him to support and we did reporting to this effect in use on polling but people sort of thought that Hey champ doesn't really believe any of the stuff anyway he's a businessman he's a deal maker he's a pragmatic guy he's a good guy he cares about the little guy so whatever he say me say that to get elected he's going to come in he's going to do the right thing is going to be the sort of like opening the box like the cat is dead and and going for now we'll see maybe nothing passes so people never really feel it and that creates a little bit more with them from going forward but if you get any of the stuff done I think that Trump administration thinks would be really good for them politically is to pass health care bill I think they think and we'll talk about will talk about that more later the really good to pass this tax but what they need his achievements I think it would be really bad for the pass any of these bills because people are not going to like what they do and it will instantly class the tune of Donald Trump potential positions in to the Donald Trump actual position into the dead cat Trump administration and that's looking to be good for them but we're getting deep into it like how this bill is constructed like this and the cover page instead of the actual port in the whole thing like it is absurd there's so much absurdity that is hard to get back unlike say I actually like this bill this presidency is built on a lot like being a lie a lot of people believe like I did get an amount of reporting mostly on the health care law talking to conservatives who enrolled in health care law in Kentucky is in Tennessee a few weeks ago and there's still one hundred percent that believe that you know he is going to cover everybody in the Anderson the end it more than I did before I started doing this reporting to the study was to cover everybody he said again and again in the debates and on sixty Minutes and in interviews that he wasn't like other Republicans that he was going to be very different I'm one of the kind of interesting because I found in their reporting that I've been doing to this he might have more wiggle room on this than you are estimating in that a lot of the other travelers I talk to the question I ask them is Why did you vote for Trump when you have Obamacare and the answer that's a pretty they've got a lot is you know if I was my Obamacare like as long as like other people are losing it too that's five guys up to a guy in Tennessee two weeks ago Adam who was telling me you know I assembled using Trump's going to be something better and he said you know Trump Allah give me very much but Lee's does not give other people very much either and it felt like a lot of resentment of other people were getting kind of ethic an idea that there were people who don't deserve these benefits are getting them and that they were viewed in this is you know all theoretical maybe this changes when you actually this is a very happy with his health insurance I just had cataract surgery like thought Obamacare was working well for him and maybe you after losing coverage things change this is something that's kind of come up in prom said again and again in the reporting that I've been doing is that willingness to say I'm fine losing what I have if it means these other people also use what they have I don't know how that ends up shaking out but something that surprised me and supporting him was Oh that's actually good to shift gears though I think because what if the bill took a lot of valuable consumer protections away from millions of his fall while exempting members of Congress say the end of the things I was in the mei mei people feel like the opposite way yes a very emotional yet at bats that ran this transitioning to get them at no bridge to health care was I yes I guess is go right into it so as many of you likely know and Wednesday nights kind of unexpectedly congressional Republicans released this amendment to the AB American Health Care Act this healthcare bill that pushing for about a month or two when the men that really move the bill to the right is an amendment to get the freedom caucus on board it would let states way about some of the really key Obamacare programs the requirement that healthy people are always charge the same as sick people and that the insurance companies have to cover the set of essential health benefits which includes doctor visits and hospital trips and maternity care prescription drugs this was at first on the news of the night that they had released this planet was it to the braids I think a lot of Obamacare supporters are really outraged and it really does surprise me that this was the direction things are moving because two days ago I have written about this Washington Post Paul found the two most popular parts of Obamacare or the ban on preexisting conditions and the essential health benefits package and then literally two days later the Republican amendment comes out that dismantled the pre existing condition ban and the health benefits package so it's the do have a sophisticated way to handle this that which is that yesterday they put out a video on Twitter of all Ryan's saying that they were one hundred percent committed to making the sink and the funny things and as the amendment is to go through things they can waive out of the pre existing conditions and at the end there's a paragraph saying like anything you do must protect people and cruising conditions even though like the actual language is about rolling back protections anyways this rules out I write about it and then I get a call from one of the people where the nose health law better than anyone else in the country on this guy Tim Jost a health affairs of their ages and health policy definitely do follow him and he says you did you see that Congress has exempted from all the eyes of nowhere is that and really buried in legally is that you had to know that I'm referring to Section I forget the exact reference was the first section like thirteen twelve C one D or something is exempted from all this if you vote Obamacare thirteen twelve whatever whatever you see that is members of Congress and was really hidden in their ER and Dimes or turn those true there was an exemption for members of Congress that essentially it's as if the state prior to D C applies for one of these waivers the plans held by members of Congress would be exams members of Congress would still get the production for preexisting conditions they would so get there somehow benefits even though the other people in DC Quaid somehow fall out of those so you're in for this article up to go to bed and then I wake up in the next morning and it's just pandemonium around as where Mark Meadows that are the Freedom Caucus thing the exemption doesn't exists the Republicans telling other reporters the exemption does exist is put in at the request of the Senate David brat Virginia saying the exemption exists but is or even fixed isn't an issue anymore that was by favor of the few and then an hour later Mark Meadows was after seeing the exemption exists said they're working on fixing the exemption which seems to suggest exemption did exist and if I just spoke to hold the confusion and the lack of people being looped in on this process and kind of understanding what was going on um you know my final role in all of this as trying to get to the bottom of how to this exemption and up in the legislation who put it there why is it there there's mother reporting other out and saying oh this has to do with eye with budgetary reconciliation rules that don't actually save what the Raul was so you know even the author of From Tom MacArthur I offer this amendment he said the Senate budget made us put it in Senate budget leaders put it and because I'll need some kind of technical roles so many stories in this is why the Carter's aides say you know it's in their twenty minutes later I got a cough and Senate budget saying we absolutely did not at that in that is not our language I think the quote I had as we did write it in at Wheaton draft s so it is currently no one wants to take and understandably so and who wants to be the legislator who wrote the exams n for Congress from your own bill but no one's willing to fess up to Why is there none of the explanations I've heard of you know it's for new rules reasons are for like some kind of Senate process no one's been able to explain to me what actually is the process as she oh and it speaks to I think why Republicans have struggled so much on health care is there isn't really a great sense of Cornish owner's hands of people being on the same page or really kind of thinking through the language that are actually putting into their bills and amendments what well what it actually the real intellect why they need this exemption right because if the bill as written pass this and they don't get the exemption for Congress but Congress still is required to get healthcare through the Affordable Care Act which is in the existing then will create a situation in which no American who has a history of series will be able to afford become a member of Congress I am like a soul icon was absolutely they should this bill is terrible but he will be made less terrible if the exam Congress from it because it would be terrible for members of Congress to have to have the terrible wave so there is another wrinkle to it I understand because what they're doing so this amendment doesn't get rid of the pre existing requirement that says states can apply for waivers the assumption is that DC is not going to apply for waivers like to see the liberal plays that they have a lot of consumer protections and so why are you even says of the assumption is you know the members of Congress who buy through the small business exchange here in DC they probably won't even be affected by the US but they put in this exemption is the exception of its staff its staff to
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AHCApocalypse II