DiscoverVox's The WeedsFinal Debate Special

Final Debate Special

Update: 2016-10-20


Ezra, Sarah, and Matt rally after a late night to talk about the third and mercifully last presidential debate.

Following script is auto-generated by Speech to Text Technology:

the following podcast contains explicit language the great thing about DC is how close it is to West Virginia is nothing anybody else ever said the two leave a rough plan for this piece just talk about recreation opportunities in Harpers Ferry the oh welcome to another piece of the weeds boxes policy podcast apparently network that Yglesias and joined as usual by at my colleague Sara Clifton Ezra Klein for another special debate edition fortunately it will not be any more of these one hopes but we're at now at least the twenty three days after her dad has nineteen to the next year ten months from now there'll be debates for the Virginia special governor's election and you can expect some special needs coverage debate America and we will talk about some of them but for now there are presidential debates and in some sense the election will and Election Day but in another sense the Donald overtures and Donald Trump is at least reporting that he is very concerned that the election will be stolen through fraudulent means and it was put very squarely to him by Chris Wallace last night's debate you know Chris was Fox News moderator which a conservative leaning die and was tries you could hear in every economic policy question right Wells was I would say trying to give Trump an opportunity to sort of put some of this behind him by saying we're going to be on the lookout for problems but like America is great and you know win or lose whatever and he did not say that he said he wants to keep us in suspense and will have to see what happens and that generated a lot of dominated headlines out of the debate in newspapers and waited frankly surprised me a little that says Trump has been saying this consistently for weeks but sometimes I say what's going to shop the other people so did two things I think are interesting here about what is happen from debate one to be three in debate one Hillary Clinton went into that debate leading Trump by one point five points in the pulse by debate three of a tree it was seven point one points so it was a huge shift in polling from day one of a tree across that same period of time old chums faith in the legitimacy of the democratic process has really declined to debate one it's easy to forget he was ousted both are asked will you on a result of the election he said absolutely no problem mate too he began to dip his toe into the waters of maybe this democratic processing isn't really working and said that if he was elected he promised he would put his opponent in gel bite debate three he not only said the election was rigged but I think people are missing this he said part of the way the election was rigged with Heller Clinton should have been put in jail before the election to the very fact of her being able to run against him for the nomination for the presidency was it self evidence of raking and I do point out that one we've had a lot of rigging creep from from Trump also a lot of jail Creek knowledge he can imprison Clinton but it should have been done before but also there's a very expansive nature to the argument is making its Reg because the media is reporting too much on things Trump said in the past that he doesn't like it's Rigby so Clinton isn't already in shell its rate because the things that he policed people might do in the future it's just kind of dragged all over and I couldn't a pointed this out that he is a guy with a conspiracy theorist personality he is an anti vac so he believes climate change hoax perpetrated by the Chinese and I think this is sort of part and parcel of it to Trump everything is a grand conspiracy meant to keep him and those he believes are part of his tribe down what things I found aside from threatening not to accept the results of the abs election which is obviously the more surprising than that I think because of this escalation what are things Anderson less about that than the previous iterations of this was which audience this was heading so with the you know put Clinton in jail that was all over break but like those clearly like something his base is really excited about either the chance of Walker up if you go to break apart this morning of this will keep you in suspense and everywhere in the media the ladies news sources that Donald Trump generally dislike very much so you could think well why is he doing this is you know railing up folks I am folks into it you are reading these more mainstream publications maybe it's for the base but then you go to bed by and there's like no like I just put up a second ago the top stories something about Hillary Clinton saying no more naps I mourn s no more naps Hillary Clinton previews final campaign stretch that is currently at um eleven a m with a flashing orange the blessing that we do work on me the graphics of our eye anyways you scroll through this more sad Republicans attack from exclusive General Mike Flynn shrubs quote unbelievable victory is quote exactly what we needed so I was surprising to me the expected if you're going to do this thing that is going to play very negatively with the E with kind of mainstream media you'd expect of your reason for the GB playing the basics of getting people riled up and setting the stage for him of some kind of pushback after the election and he really seems to me it isn't a matter both written about that it gives Trump too much credit to say this is like a strategy is driving the chilling Hillary thing I see the strategy that I see how that appeals to his base questioning whether accept the election results I don't know how how to explain that in a strategic places so I do have a theory about the son of a two fold one of one of the theories is that we are I think imbedded in that that argument is the idea that Trump is executing a campaign strategy here I don't think that's what he is doing I think he's executing a person all whether you want to say personally personal brand strategy trumps primary goal in life is for people to not think he is a loser I mean that it that is what motivates him in the world and what he's doing is setting up an argument where at least he can tell himself and be surrounded by cocoon of other people who will agree that he didn't lose the election was stolen from him by the media by everyone else but the other thing that I think is part of that here is this is one way in which you see you can see the effects of chums complete lack of institutional ties to the Republican Party or government or public service more generally when you have other politicians who run these braces take John Kerry in two thousand and four there is some evidence that John Kerry was inclined to buy into the idea that Ohio was somehow stolen from him he's certainly toyed with it but he never ended up going anywhere it he conceded swiftly he let go and thereby lot of reasons for that one reason is a chunk it was a serving US Senator he needed to retain the esteem of his colleagues he had things that he would want to do in the future like the secretary of state and in the next Democratic administration ever there were reasons for him not to try porch the political system and also his reputation with the net Donald Trump doesn't have that he has nothing in politics he is fighting for after this moment if he doesn't win the presidency the best you can have it is a very intense motivated fan base who is angry that he didn't win the presidency and still committed to the Donald Trump brand so a lot of politicians when they lose an election because of who we see is their peers because of whose endorsements and legitimacy and validation they want and also because of what their future career ambitions are they have resented and also because what their past loyalties are they have reason to act honorably and act with the best interests of the systems and even themselves in mind chump just doesn't he just has a really different incentive said I think you see it coming out here you know get it the other thing about this is that Trump has attracted a level of media scrutiny and harshness about what he says that most politicians don't have right so just go walk our way back in August at twenty fifty he gave a speech at Virginia to like fire up the conservative base in which he said that Hillary Clinton should be disqualified from running for president of United States and this itchy of Scott Walker's tactical goal of being written up in bright part as Great Scott Walker catches fire in Virginia was the headline Hillary Clinton should be quote unquote disqualified from being president Scott Walker is very conservative but he's also a dull bland Midwestern he was trying to make himself more exciting and it worked and it did not generate stories from mainstream political reporters that were like Scott Walker is toying with destroying the underpinnings of American democracy to the extent that it was covered at all it was covered as Scott Walker is trying to make himself seem more exciting to the conservative base then we had another iteration of this in India January thirteen Republican primary debate at the sort of all the Republican candidates like took whacks at Hillary over the male staff Jeb Bush said she'd be a national security mess which was like a low energy Jeb Marco Rubio who's of like a a more skilled politician than Jeb Bush said Hillary Clinton should be disqualified from running for president over this and everybody clapped and we know ultimately he lost but he was the same Scott Walker strategy but again it was not written up as like Marco Rubio is undermining the legitimacy of the American political system in part because like the circumstances were different but like this is what Donald Trump wound up saying was like Oh Hillary Clinton should have been allowed to run and that's knowing people getting up today I mean I think I'm making some idiosyncratic point about his this qualifying creep is related and wanting to put Hillary Clinton in jail that people are are are writing up something these guys didn't say which is that he is pro actively trying to discredit the result of the election and also proactively saying that he may not concede even if he gets fewer votes and the imeem so again like so Scott Walker mean Republican governors they put laws in place like voter ID restrictions as with the We all know right it's a fake rationale and that these laws are needed to prevent widespread voter fraud but then like when the Supreme Court through a half dozen of these laws out saying no sorry this is just illegal racial discrimination then turn around and say like fair enough you caught me I was just B S A They were like Oh no we're going to have voter fraud so like Trump is taking it seriously right and Mike I there's a real difference I a hundred percent agree with this like just like Hillary Clinton you have a public position and I really think like lying in politics is you know it's not the best thing in the world but it's also not the worst thing in the world and like Donald Trump following the logic of this stuff is genuinely worse than people just kind of like kicking around for giggles but like Mitch McConnell put forward a national voter ID amendment to comprehensive immigration reform again Guinness in Congress the reason Mitch McConnell did this was to try to mess up the Gang of Eight psych solidarity on the amendment process but his stated reason for this amendment was that we had to prevent to the widespread voter fraud that is happening in the United States of America has filed a case briefs testing to the fact that it's really important to stop voter fraud and I have never seen anybody say that like Mitch McConnell is like seriously trying to undermine faith in the integrity of American elections because we give him as professionals we give him the courtesy of assuming that he's just lying freight entrance or doesn't get that courtesy Rite Aid so the flip side of his like realness and authenticity is that when he says things we take him very very early on them and it is frightening because Mitch McConnell for all his legislative antics does not nobody thinks is right that if I'm blind to lose the Senate election in Missouri Mitch McConnell is going to actually say that the election was stolen by voter fraud St Louis and he will like file briefs to that effect if he can get people purged from voter rolls in advance like he's just trying to win whereas we don't know what Trump is fried but I don't think it's just that Trump gets different treatment that he's legitimately saying crazier things than than other Republicans are willing to say that they might hand everything there is likely the Jazz are saying there's a difference between saying someone should be disqualified which could be read as they should be disqualified because they don't seem trustworthy they did this verse is like they committed a crime and they should be in jail and I plan to jail if I win you see they ease either his others the summer when U M with refugees where you had governors coming out say I'm not going to let Adam Syrian refugees settle in my state and then trim branches of the Andes saying we should not allow any Muslims in the countries I don't I think it's generally true he now says he never said no never mind that it's I think it is true what you're saying that some of the seeds of this or sat in the larger Republican Party could probably look at this across a lot of issues where there is kind of this groundwork laid but I don't think it's a case that we just started taking Trump seriously when he said things that he legitimately said different things that other competitors and theres another Republican politicians were willing to move in the direction of but not go quite as far as going so the two things are true here both are important so one it is a skill and also learned have been in politics to know where the Linus and the line I think is Matt is putting out is often drawn little arbitrarily right you can discredit the legitimacy of the vote in a kind of semi quiet are actually trying to disenfranchise people say your folks who are more elections and somehow that is absorbed as the two sides you know fighting more or less within the rules to begin advantage even though it's a genuine I think quite despicable thing but you can't once you lose you lose like it's itself or Trump doesn't know where that line is a lot of Republican politicians do I think the cells by the way his abortion answer last night where he was beat what Republican politicians say is something that implies that yes they were like Roe v Wade overturned but not quite that of course that will happen is mechanical result of electing into office but he just kind of doesn't know how to finesse and if he just gets up and says well I'll nominate three justices and obviously that would be the outcome it was like what he said I'm going to appoint justices will uphold the Second Amendment and even caught him some was like well actually the Pope Paul VI of the right thing right he doesn't know what the point he's trying to make the elastic the line but to make one other point on this oh so yes is one issue which as you know how to stop or where to stop but the other thing that that I think is true is that and this really goes to Mass when it is important this knowing where to stop thing is a shared coated game of elites Mitch McCall knows where to stop I think I know where Mitch McConnell stop the whole thing if you're if you're professionally in politics everybody gets what the language is really saying and what the boundaries are and what the little sort of coded messages on hold and we all have our decoder rings the Republican base does not the Republican base the actual voters and this is what led to Trump too large a hurdle the stuff they heard about Barack Obama was doing to destroy the country they heard about how Obamacare was the end of freedom they heard about how proper law Mamie not been born in this country may not be legitimate legitimate president at all I am like this is really bad they heard about you know all the terrible things are happening because immigration and they don't know where to stop they didn't know the parts are people are kidding or just indulging them are just trying to get a momentary advantage and that led to Trump that led to them nominating the guy who seemed to have a an agenda and a style that was pre portion it to the kinds of problems that everybody else in Republican politics for telling them existed and knowledge of is authentic that are of his base he also doesn't know where the line is he also doesn't know what to believe and what not to believe and so he would go further than other people I mean the stuff about jailing Hillary Clinton is is a perfect example where if you listen to anything Republican say or what they're saying to Jim scold me for instance I think Matt you would want to point this out on the weeds couple weeks ago if you listen to Republicans attacking James Cole me for not doing his job it is clear that what they are saying is how Clinton committed a crime and should be in jail don't usually quite say that but that's exactly what that implies the Republican base is hearing that they're hearing it and filter through talk radio and filter to Fox News and felt at the bright part so the understanding they have is that criminal who knowingly put American national security at risk in order to hide what she was really doing from the American people and who deleted thirty three thousand emails showing presumably the most scandalous stuff possibly including being the sea is now going to be president and that's what you hear yeah it makes total sense like this this is a raging this is a a totally dangerous disastrous election and you need to do whatever you can to stop it these are our passions are Republican Party on leashes in its base for short term political gain and is now finding that it is unable to control them and they're leading to long term political loss I to give it to someone who really does understand where all the lines are plans out what she's doing very careful very deliberate way and that's Hillary Clinton who you know I think is not the greatest stump speaker in the history of American politics and is in some ways not a particularly well liked politician but is extremely well versed in what is she is doing and who is easy to sort of mock the level of preparation and the like ninety person email threads going into the writing and timing of it we think you wrote about this this last night as robot think we've seen that that pays off right there is something a little less awesome about a candidate who is clearly very focused on like preparation gaming out scenarios thinking things through but is actually quite effective there's a reason why many times people try to practice plan and rehearse and consult with a wide range of people about what they should do and work there make their marks out and it has really over the course of these debates like work for her she has done better than I think any general election candidate in the history of of debating in terms of moving the poll numbers and it gives the impression of really having flowed from a plane so she it is just saying that Hillary Clinton over three debates has left the Trump campaign in ruins on the eve of the first debate Clinton and Trump are almost tied shoes a little bit ahead now on the third she is overwhelmingly overwhelmingly ahead in the race and the Republican hold on the Senate is in danger the Republican hold on the house might be in danger it's a lot harder to know but some polls suggest is that is really not normal if you look at the political science evidence on debates that she has very rarely move the polls and in fact in this so fascinating the debate series that move the polls the most was Carter Ford that to be the series is known for having this massive Ford gaffe or he said that I think is Poland is not under the control the Soviet Union all of these to all of Eastern Europe and it was and said Are you sure to say that last chance call a friend he said absolutely that is exactly what I meant but the debates moved the polls reports Ford Carter went in with the big leading came out a very small one so it is for debates to the polls in the end it here and I think the way people tend to absorb this is it Hillary Clinton is lucky to have a terrible candidate running against Hillary Clinton is herself lauded week but she is boosted by having was even more flawed even weaker candidate but what I think that does forget is that Hillary Clinton through preparation for planning to her own caution and care and to some degree through a savvy use of dolphins weaknesses and her own gender has driven Donald Trump crazy in every single debate that everyone is fall the same pattern but she spends the first thirty minutes kneeling him he completely loses his shit and leaves behind presidential slow talking calming Donald Trump goes in to needle the angry confrontational Trump last night eventually in a dispute about Social Security he ever say you are such a nasty woman which he can't he she is able to make him just totally lose that she sprung release him a shot or trapped on him in the first debate which would lead to which began really the conversation about the way he spoke to him treated with many credit the context in which the two thousand and five Access Hollywood tape came out it was back on track for then the women coming forward and saying it's actually her ass m It also sent chomp into it like this is spin of hysteria he spent the whole next night up all night reading that people should check out the sex tape that didn't exist he then spent a bunch of time organizing three accusers of Bill Clinton to come before the next debate and to a press conference with him which was a totally maniacal strategy that had nothing to do with how he could when he needed to be practicing for the debate and finding Hillary Clinton's weaknesses instead he just wanted to humiliate her and turn so she is really and also in every debate she's managed to not make any mistake she's managed to give clear answers that showed the very large preparation and knowledge gap jump it's been a pretty command performance it has had a huge effect on the poles and I think it's been a little bit hard to appreciate because it's really been Hillary Clinton maneuvered Trump into a place where he would detonate and lucid debates terribly as opposed to the kind of thing where you start judging which is how it ended just doing an awesome job but for all that I think it is inevitable remember Trump became the Republican nominee by out debating a sixteen person field that included many politicians who are considered the most help the Republican politicians in a generation it's true that one on one debates are different than multi candidate debates he was a good show man and even towards engages him in Ruby on K sick he did not get creamed in those days in those clashes so there are hidden Cruz and Kate I'm sorry so there is something really going on here I think Clinton deserves a lot more credit for the chance I go back and forth in that I think it's kind of a bummer that Clinton gives great head on a car and if you look at economic information that a generic Republican should win this debate like a new Messiah and we talk about this before the kind of some moments of generic Republican alike Trump coming out in the debates especially in the early part three Could kind of see what it would be like any other mark over Rubio up there on stage and I think you're totally right Ezra that Clinton wanted to these debates in a strategic way that is nigh I especially appreciated the Alicia Machado moment stands out to me especially because of faults as it was hard to pull off because there's no right moment to do it in Clinton's i was like here's a thing of saying put out there and it would have considered feeling very weird like making a strategic decision in the debate like it and come up like there was no moment for it and she had a very clear sense of like yes this is going to feel weird in the moment I know exactly what I'm going to do and it clearly was sell thought out in a way that I think would be easy to scan in a way to say like maybe we'll save that for the next debate maybe we'll just put out these ads unlike push it in that way was high risk high risk but something like I imagined more these emails are probably like thousands of emails about this want to do it with the plan wise so it clearly the Clinton as his skill and debating the same time there's so many buttons to push with Trump gets me kind of into the grading on a curve minds that I think about it what other candidate could you so clearly see his the ways he gets aggravated the way is like you're only get so upset when you use his first name that there's such clear ways you can push him into these entities moment such as look terrible for ham that are not true with most politicians that I think also it is a benefit of debating him later in the cycle we are able to really like watching his personality come out to watch the things that set him off he's he's your candidate is to set off then than others would be I don't think that negates Hillary's skills as a debater but at the same time it definitely changes the dynamic of what she's doing it changes how the moves that she is using a debate are much more successful against a candidate like am than other candidates might have to wait and tell you one thing that I think certain confuses the issue of a little bit here said one question is is is Hillary Clinton ace strong candidate for office like when you just look on paper like at the fundamentals is this who the Democrats would want to grind and I think the answer to that is is no then she is a relatively pour choice on paper that something that her allies like to say about her is that she's the best qualified candidate we've ever had another way of saying that is voters really does spy is super experienced professional politicians who are part of a system that is viewed as deeply corrupt and hateful and that a good candidate would be like a normal presidential candidate a governor with five or six years of experience who is going to say a lot of nonsense about how I'm going to come clean up the system and in Washington right and Democrats I think would be much better off with a candidate like that someone twenty years younger way less qualified all that other kind of stuff on the other hand given that Hillary Clinton is who she is I think she displays an extraordinarily high skill level write it in working with what she's got I think the ultimate example of Hillary Clinton as a as an under rated skillful political player is her two thousand Senate race right if you want to think about OK even open Senate seat in a super blue state and I would like to represent that state in the Senate and my problems include a non elected official at all B I don't live in the state I was a really great hope for from fundamental standpoint but she pulled it off right and then she goes up against against replies EO and she wins and I think if you look at the margin in that race he'd say OK a Democrat running in a presidential election year in New York actually kind of underperformed the margin that you would expect because that you're ahead or behind Gore actually Gore because she was not a good candidate is using a strong selection for that office but she was an extraordinarily skilled politician you know she had this to get the endorsement at all right I mean she had to get Andrew Cuomo who is currently Governor be art but at the time was HUD secretary and Carl McCall who I think was the Comptroller of the state she had to get them to bolster decide that neither of them wanted a crack at this open Senate seat that they were instead going to run against each other in a gubernatorial race two years in the future right when like a normal thing to do would be for state power brokers to be like Hey guys instead of a hugely destructive primary when you answer the seven Tennessee right but yet like work imaginations of the Charlie wrangle was out there Meet the Press and he was like I don't know I think Hillary Clinton would make a good senator and she did this listening course taken with was really hard i
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