Happy New Year

Update: 2017-01-04


Sarah and Matt offer predictions for 2017, and offer tax wonk tips about when to time your child's birth.

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change things up with our third house so and we hear President Obama is going be looking for a job pretty sad but exciting news is as or and I will be interviewing President Obama on Friday at eleven a m It will be about the Affordable Care Act is one of the president's last chances to defend Obamacare as Republicans begin in earnest attempting to repeal the affordable to you is like a it's like a live event it was a live internet like this podcast to listen to after record this will be at home he will be of the West is live on Vox to concentrate websites and again will be eleven a m on Friday also be recorded if don't know what awesome at giving love and community due to the and Leah you to our Facebook page will be on the face putting White House's if you have to like to avoid all websites and dislike give your money to giant Internet monopoly is you have that option is yes yes there are many options for how one can experience is that so the great it'll be about an hour and Obamacare and it'll be a good time awesome so you know one that that sort of plays out and we want to do a little bit of a New Year's episode and its January fourth which is still New Year's dish and sore to look ahead to it to the year to comment for our year end special we A Look Back and twenty sixteen is one in twenty sixteen it said political pundits are just like really good care events that this aside our core competencies and saying we really need to focus on yet we're going to predict some good future here totally accurate so this is going to be so rock solid hold us a hundred I want to be judged in my career exclusively on the quality of the predictions here um I don't want that guy that's all that's on the diamond are a visible a You go first so I wasn't a factor since anyone's know how not if you take during our errands or you're totally for here is what I think we're going to see I think we're going to find that there are some powerful individuals in Republican Party Politics Paul Ryan Mitch McConnell et-cetera who I think feel like they are on the top of the world right now that they felt a lot of discomfort over the summertime and the fall maybe a touch in the spring with a thought to strum thing you know it's a it's not good you know this really happen where they were they were really queasy about it but then someone in trouble winning removed a lot of their doubts about Trump and they are now riding high Paul Lyon is tweeting very confidently about the ones in a lifetime opportunity that congressional Republicans have and I think that this is going to end in humiliation and disaster for them as individuals I think they may achieve a lot of their substantive policy agenda I think that Paul Ryan with AS are not here to to interrupt me just to say Paul Ryan gets up in the morning he thinks like what can I do to help or people and by help or people of PA line means is reduced their incomes and living standards he's really obsessed with purses minute like a years long mission of has been attributed to him that he cares about other things like that deficit and debt but that there's no evidence of that but he is like a single focus on like taking in common in kind support away from poor people and he's going to achieve some of that but I think is awesome and a broken and humbled me and if you look through down trumps career which is extensive you do not find I think a single instance of a person who went into business with Donald Trump and came out on the other side of it like feeling good about themselves and what they got I don't know exactly what's going to sort of come of it but you know we've seen a lot of people like Trent Lott when Georgie Bush was president you know he was like a really important influential senator until he had a president of his same party at which point as soon as Trent Lott became like an inconvenience he was ditched and rejected and that's not because George W Bush was like Trump like figure who like humiliating discarded absolutely everyone but it's because it is a is a shifting of power you know it's very common like this new guy comes into town and it's like our ride we've been here a long time you know we're going to giving him the marching orders but it turns out to be the other way to add to that the fact that rum doesn't care about conservative politics doesn't care about the Republican Party doesn't care about having a reputation as like a square dealer who cares about is having reputation as a tough guy who stands his ground and I think you know people are going to find themselves really sort of discomfort that Chris Christie has completely vanished from national attention but before vanishing to national attention he was a humiliated broke a national joke and before he was a humiliated broke a national joke he was a well respected figure in Republican Party politics and that is what is going to happen to every single person who thinks they can collaborate with some care is a kind of like how you see this playing out if they could see it going one of two ways can a building on something you are saying that Trump does not seem super interested in traditional conservative politics EC is at this point somewhat interested in doing these things outside of DC that talking about the carrier like doing these things that really don't involve Paul Ryan Mitch McConnell these leaders on the UN the hell so in one version of that legacy that is going forward right that be continue doing what they're doing on Obamacare appeal it beckons driven by the Hell and from plays a relatively minor role as he does other things or you see him getting more involved in the process and see things like that with us later Monday nights or Sunday night all the days of this new year playing together about the congressional ethics office and I can like jumping into things that look very unexpected moments like I'm curious how you see this playing out like where where you see this humiliation happenings they do great things happen to a number of Republican politicians of Long's primary schedule is very unpredictable what is actually going to happen like I would not have said a week ago I think what's going to happen is House Republicans are going to try to undermine the Office of Congressional Ethics and then Trump is going to humiliate him Harris them but it was just a sign post of the fact that I think I think there's a fantasy among Republicans on the Hell that because Trump doesn't care that much about the stuff that he's going to just go on with whatever it is they want to do I think he will go along with a lot of what they want to do we saw I mean to explain in case anybody missed this was his was into doesn't he house Democrats created this new stronger or House ethics office and that was because they had won in two thousand and six in large part on the basis of sort of Republican scandals and things like that so they in there a sort of first term as in the majority of the clothes he created this new ethics office has annoyed a lot IU conferred Democratic members grumbling about it just as much as Republican members because Democrats have created this was like one of their signature accomplishments they wanted to do away with it house Republicans decided yet lets crap that they don't want bad press about it like bad tweets a surprising amount it seems to me like one of main stream media people went with the word guts in there like headlines about what was going on here but it was perfectly accurate but was like more aggressive than I would have guessed and I think was probably more aggressive then Representative Goode last thought is was was was going to get constituents were outraged they started calling and and House Republicans would probably have wanted at that time Donald Trump to either defend them with some tweets echoing the members' complaints about how his office was unfair like due process to help them out with some distraction he could have got a tweet storm just about the Chevy Cruze is and how he hates Mexico or to um just like stay silent and let them ride this out but instead he piled on with a little gentle criticism for no real reason if you are house made me mad when here's a guy who is corrupt as fuck right so much more corrupt than anyone in the House of Representatives probably ever he is just sitting there as we speak foreign governments are paying cash bribes directly to Donald Trump right as we speak we have no idea what financial position Donald Trump as in any of the businesses that he is regulating it is safe and all of the Republicans every single house with public and is as we speak covering for Donald Trump any one of them could say it anyway they have any problem with any of crumbs massive corruption they haven't done it they've been going along to get a loan as soon as they said they want a little piece of the action trumps smacked him down right she just cut them off and that's the kind of thing that is going to keep happening people are going to do things this theory being if I do acts some kind of bad sorry it will be avoided for me and is just like it is not going to happen I don't know what I don't know what Donald Trump cares about anymore than they do but I think it's really clear that he cares about humiliating his opponents dominating others he doesn't believe in fair play he has gotten so much further than anyone would've ever thought anything about his business career and makes you think like why does anybody pay their subcontractors fright I I think we mostly think that well if you developed a reputation as a guy who will say he's going to pay one hundred thousand dollars for piano but then just doesn't that you would have like a really hard time building things in the future but Trump is always reinvent and some can along get along everybody thought he wasn't in when the selection him one am and he's just I think is going to betray and crash at one point that as of last week that like we thought we knew what the rules where we thought we knew the rules of written like a businessman for being a politician unlike anything we've learned last year that we can really understand as so here's that I don't know if I believe it I think I'll just outline the case for why this might not happen to see what you think of it so Ina wind out of Congressional Ethics things that happen in the one thing that's notable about it isn't something that the folks who talk about that Mitch Connell par and that they were not onboard with the seems to be something that like came out of the number sat there like even reports the night it happened like Paul Ryan was upset with that he realizes was a bad luck so he was clearly unaware like almost not quite as directly like not out there sending these tweets but a in the courts are coming out was kind on the same side as Trump here and throwing his cock is under the bus a little bit in the thing I wonder about is whether him and his is a big customer the car or Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan smart enough to avoid this in some way but I think Mitch McConnell is a very good politician and has been very good at like demonizing the Affordable Care Act in rallying people around appeal unlike as you ran on a platform of repealing Obamacare in Kentucky the state that has of the biggest decline in insurance and one and was really amazing at keeping his caucus you so so aligned objectives of running against Obama hit in ways that I did not expect that I did not expect they can maintain that ideological consistency for the entirety of the president's time in office that they did I see the way this doesn't happen and is that they are able to out politician Trump that they're able to avoid the traps that like Chrissy was falling into the cruise was I don't know exactly how you do this but I do want to give them credit for people who have been doing this for while we were quite good at politics possibly being able to avoid this in some way I will give some credit to McConnell and I would say one thing that you can say about Mitch McConnell is that he has never once in any way criticize or distance himself from Donald Trump or suggested any resistance to anything that Trump has to say about anything right all during the campaign was like is running story like Donald Trump would say things like I don't believe Mexicans should serve as federal judges right and you know there would be like an outcry right and Paul Ryan back on that's a textbook example of racism gonna fuck all the same rights record and the entertainment we are whatever the present day where I saw a lot of people or flip flop was like Yeah I like to re please just all the time and a lot of Republicans right it sounds kind of damage but Collins say anything right he was going to defend it because if you defend Donald Trump to be humiliated because is totally indefensible but if you criticize Donald Trump will be humiliated because Don Trump is out to humiliate and punish his enemies and I think it's entirely possible that Mitch McConnell will serve the next but for years without ever mentioning Donald Trump or offering any opinions on anything that he does and he will be okay with that at Jeff Jeff Stein has a great summer day and said this week with out Miguel s who wrote that fascinating sort of mini biography of Mitch McConnell which I believe that had the title of it is the cynic and it's true that you know if you're sort of don't care at all right like McConnell sorta spends his whole career in this sort of life jacket on you know like home and on like he's very savvy political operator but he's not trying to do anything exactly ended and it works for him but I do think other people ride I mean a great example I would give right now is John McCain Lindsey Graham right they have clearly articulated that they do not think Donald Trump's propose new alliance with Russia is a good idea they are committed to an anti Russian foreign policy are least like they think they are they went and visited troops on the front lines in Ukraine that things like that and I sort of wish them well in this I mean I sort of thing their own foreign policy it is there a little bit crazy but they're doing it like they either they are going to help Donald Trump's opponents destroy him or they are going to be destroyed this idea that you're going and develop some kind of like medium distance from Trump or change hammocks sway him in a different direction like that to me is like what the delusion and I think of Trump tells Mitch McConnell much a stand on one foot to sing the Russian national anthem you know he'll do it I think he doesn't particularly care and probably come on even bother to ask him because you know what why would he write but it's like it's whether it's Paul Ryan it's John McCain whether it's Rand Paul is the people out there who think that they're going to make some kind of accommodation where like them getting what they want is an important part of the puzzle it seems to me are the ones who are core mistake here here I guess the question arises for me like how this plays out in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty and where voters land on like in these battles that I do agree will happen with some members have not the leadership like who comes out looking that I don't even know if it matters to be honest because districts as a member so safe that it might not make much of a difference but I don't think I understand right now I guess making projects hands that have next to ours and how this plays out like if you end up in a situation where the fight unlike the humiliation is coming from the presidents to members of Congress like how that plays out for control of Congress you sad scenario for Republicans is one in which Trump is not that good at being president which leads to the Republican Party being unpopular and twenty eighteen which leads to them losing the house but then because of gerrymandering a lot of the new Democratic members are very vulnerable and you know would like to be seen as bipartisan and because Trump does not care about the Republican Party or conservative politics completely rewrites the rules of this like error of partisan polarization is like Sure I'll cut lots of deals with vulnerable Democrats from Republican leaning seats why don't you know then it's like you're sitting completely jettisoned completely cut loose as the administration has one hundred percent on rogue right message from Democrats which I think is accurate is that Trump seems to be desirous to go along with a very hard line conservative agenda which seems correct to me he's got Mike Pence and eyes from the Heritage Foundation staffing his administration because that's that's like who he's working with right now right when Obama lost control of Congress in twenty ten he remained doggedly committed to the principles that got him elected in two thousand and eight and he kept fighting the painter and McConnell he kept like fighting for environmentalism and fighting for Obamacare and all that kind of stuff just like when Bill Clinton that's what presidents do we expect presidents to reflect their party's mainstream radiology priorities and Trump does it right I mean he's working with conservative Republicans right now because that's who is in office some point in working with moderate Democrat is barely any moderate Democrats around at all but if Democrats win you know he he's going to work with them and they're going in have the chance to get humiliated that's that's how I see my patient I seventeen and humiliation for anyone who doesn't simply genious like to trumpet at all times which is sponsored by texture texture gives you add digital access to basically all of the biggest magazines in the world it's really great my wife and I were doing a home renovation right now so we've been looking at a lot of different design magazines and Texas got them all they 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slash weeds texture dot com slash I am going to focus so differently I see a lot of crazy shit happening in state legislatures that we will totally mess and that will be distracted by what is happening in Washington the end we will miss the story of what's happening in state legislatures so you know given the background to this one thing's been seeing over the past six or eight years is really a Republican takeover of state legislatures that Republicans have increasingly gained full control of legislatures or a he's broken through democratic control Assisi that its leaders like Colorado flipping over the past two years from Democrat controlled to split governance and if you look at these maps that the National Council of State legislatures but out it is kind of sweeping sea of red that keeps growing and growing even with Republican control of Congress in the way how sad I think we're still going to see a lot of difficulty is getting stuff done in part because we relationship between Trump and legislatures like I have just over the past two days become a lot more pessimistic about odds of Obamacare repeal and feeling and seeing a lot of things right now that suggest it's going to be quite hard for them to even move through the appeal process and gets the fifty one votes they need in the Senate but state legislators it's a lot easier to move things through its alot height less high profile and the stuff really matters alive I knew this state legislators are regulating everything from abortion to criminal justice policy environmental policy of regulating background checks on guns that there's so much happening there are and I think we have focused on and you know the craziness around Trump and the unexpected ness of who is in Washington and we will miss kind of a wave of different laws that are going to come in the state legislature is arguably reshape the country in more of a significant way than whatever happens and is it so I guess what I mean doubt about that is like is largely something that already happened I mean I mean there in twenty sixteen right like Democrats took the Nevada Legislature where Republicans took one house in Colorado I think Democrats took back the Washington State Senate but Republicans won Kentucky says I'm like that but wasn't the earthquake like back in twenty Ten like haven't they already like banned abortion as much as as much as they can like what I grew on one level right so like Michigan Donald Trump won the state of Michigan ever was like whoa the Midwest working class industry something Democrats follow law but it was like two years ago that Michigan became a right to work state and I think we like to look back at like the story of the Upper Midwest Sprite word term we're going to say it was just like Republicans one state government in Michigan but that in like the Heartland of the United Auto Workers the felt emboldened to just wipe out the private sector labor union sector in in that state and any wasn't like a big story when it happened so I agree with you there but I'm curious like what what what going forward that you know is is really certainly in the offing so I think you're a big shift happened it went and the convincing smaller ships in the same direction sense so actually Nevada went Democrat Republican and sixteen and you'll see missionaries the Minnesota going split control I see scene in New Hampshire is going completely Republic and seizing of the same shift that started it went and I think that's one reason I agree that I am the big stuff happened twice in twenty ten but it still still happening I think the other reason to expect more now and I follow this most closely through the lens of abortion policy in one of things I've learned there is a takes a few cycles for laws to really proliferate you generally see it at least I was in a work in abortion policy is a one or two states try something out a good example of this is an Nebraska I think it was two thousand and eight or twenty ten day pass the first abortion ban at twenty weeks and other states are kind of watching to see can we get this passed like how does it go and then you see this wave following afterwards and it builds year after year to integrate a point or ten or twelve states have twenty week bans and if you go back to for the best the law none of them dead and it didn't happen all at once you can see when things it's quite different about this the legislators in Washington as they can look at each other look at what other states are doing and mimic that of national groups helping them make that you have a in the space of abortion the Americans United for Life which wraps up this kind of fill in the blanks legislation were fewer twenty week ban will hand you the billions on your state name is on some details and you can take that to the state legislature so I think it'll matter because the groundwork has been laid for six years and so you're saying both you know the wave of initial lies and now more control of legislatures where they can be passed in those things to me suggests that we'll see some interesting like new law making him possibly like things we haven't seen before with you know in the abortions based on things I've seen since the twenty week ban is people moving like earlier and earlier so you start with twenty weeks a new project sixteen and then you are like his heartbeat laws that Ohio is experimenting with and you see the laws ever passed in twenty eight and like more extreme versions of those coming out of twenty six teens I think that cycle continues and again it just gets less coverage than what's happening in DC and you can read that the millions stories about the Obamacare debate you're going to read a lot fewer stories about what is happening in all the state legislators that are becoming more extreme bells and are getting and more controlled by Republicans yet one has to do and say to scold at that listeners hear that I think I hear journalists talk alot about these things get less coverage and about how you know bureaus in the states and stuff are shutting down all that kind of stuff and that's all true but like it doesn't get less coverage because editors are sitting around being lie fuck Sacramento like we don't care really gets us coverage because it gets less readership like you would think at some point that like ninety different outlets covering Donald Trump's tweets like at the Mar gin you would like get more readers by talking about what the Ohio legislature is doing in Columbus but I feel like we have not yet touched bottom I like how few resources can possibly be devoted to state government like people have like such a firm level of utter indifference like they don't vote in midterm elections people don't know the name of their state senator I was talking about last week Alex was emotionally impacted by these kinds of things like nobody is living in Maryland like emotionally shattered by the fact that Larry Hogan became governor instead of totally good well qualified Democrat veteran who'd served for years in state government some like jackass window businessman vaults is a whimsical like Reagan would have been trying fourteen I mean some people voted for Hogan some to vote against him nobody was bothered nobody's reading about it he now has like a seventy percent approval rating because people figure like he must be okay though now write any it strikes me as you know um I don't know at a crisis in the Like Soul of America and Americans raises the question of like why shouldn't conservatives like completely decimate all state level public services and functions if nobody is actually interested in them or what they do I'm not lucky enough to live in that state now or state senator I tell you if you have what you may be interested I being a citizen who participates in local government
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Happy New Year