DiscoverVox's The WeedsThe Time Traveling Emanuel Brothers

The Time Traveling Emanuel Brothers

Update: 2017-02-09
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Sarah, Ezra, and Matt talk about anti-Trump protests, cabinet confirmations, and health insurance age rating (exciting!)

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sponsored by Helix sleep but Helix sleep dot com slash weeds and fifty dollars off your order is also possibly give well get well dot org provides a short curated list of exceptional charities maximize the good you accomplish for each dollar you give it give well that org and square space make your next move with a beautiful website from square space the following podcast contains explicit language is Mandarin hits and no it's it's the opposite it's about how much Republicans don't try to cover most of his curveball hello welcome to another set of the weeds boxes policy podcast and pedophile network that Yglesias joined in the studio by my colleagues Ezra Klein and Sir Cliff got that wonderful April morning in DC guess that we are the Chinese posters have to discuss this book is that it's it's nice and we got that we've got a lot gets up to talk about we've got a thrilling it's a white paper but it's about the Affordable Care Act's new has really done it all rings and it's about a Trump executive order yes he brings it brings everything to get about math than rounding I don't think we need to be this concealing of it it's about a trading whew big I can hear you talk about some of their cabin fight ongoing but first we want a candidate step back and as Sharon I have had both been writing about sort of progressive counter mobilization in that Trump ERA and one into a yes and there is been to an extent I expecting a really big counter mobilization that in has reminded me of two thousand I Ain beginning of tea party where there's a lot of focus on going to town halls right now there's list of about one hundred town halls that this new group town hall project twenty eighteen is circulating saying like you should show up you should go and people are really going on there were some town halls this past weekend that had over a thousand people showing up protesting and so there's two kind of interesting surprising things here to talk through what is just that it's it's happening that there's this haul I think the Washington Post of the first one to make that joke or say the protests has become the new brunch like there's always a protest there is always on the weekend has been is really wide scale mobilization then particularly with the protests around the travel ban they felt very organic not especially organized women's march or something those announced weeks in advance of people ready for the protests at airports are really really quite surprising and like not something that anyone could have prepared for given that we didn't know the executive order is coming to sing a lot of this and it seems like it's only picking up I think are going to CA in the last week of February the soul could have hit an even higher note that is when legislators will be on recess you have a lot of tonal meetings and you have these liberal group circulating the lists of town hall meetings that's one thing that has surprised me because it really it seems very similar to how the Tea Party started in two thousand and nine has developed his distinct ideology and then there's the inner side of it that that's been writing about that it seems that this is actually working but I think it is very easy to write these off as a lot of angry people were showing up and then they go home and they watch TV or do something else but it seems like these are the type of things at the Trump administration is watching and responding to and EU matter really good list of some of the things they've scaled back maybe alternative radio about what this mobilization missing like what is meaning and she I mean it's come a little swamped because judges have now stated that the entire immigration executive order but was noticeable is that between Friday evening when protesters started showing up the airports and when the stay came down from already said that they were going to exempt green card holders that's people with permanent residency permits they said they were going to exempt dual nationals first of a select handful of countries then of basically all country is and they started saying that the military was going be allowed to make a list of special exemptions for people who worked with the U S Army in Iraq and Syria I'm so those were very significant kinds of exemptions of the Also lady some handful of refugees who had died was scheduled for medical treatment so basically it was like they started rolling back all of the most sort of heavily criticized parts of this you are still left with an order that has real significance particularly for refugees heading forward but they really walk alot of it back and I think you also so on then an executive order had been circulating that was going to revoke deportation protections from dreamers you know somebody had written that up it was something many Republicans I mean if somebody leaked it to Vox Box of the more than just that the league's Amie forcing the cuddles right up there was a dream Act if Republicans in Congress had wanted to protect its people from deportation they would have voted yes on the dream Act but instead they voted no because they voted no it did pass because didn't pass Obama came up with the doc the program deferred Action for childhood arrivals which was met again with overwhelming criticism from Republicans because again if they had wanted to protect his people from deportation it would have voted for the law then it was a campaign the most anti immigration Republican candidate won the nomination won the election he came into office I think it would be what have been very reasonable to assume the doctor would be revoked it still might be revoked in the future but it's the order has gotten lost in the mail or something from what I hear people on Capitol Hill are not expecting it soon because there is no fear that that would actually be much more potent range of of park as seeds many sort of tentacles into the community and more people who would show up and similarly eye on health care it sorta seemed I think we sat on the show that you know in mid late November was like while Republicans alike said they wanted to reveal Affordable Care Act they have the votes they probably will and now they are looking VERY has the kind of cautionary notes that as were raised thank you for remembering that seem to be battle yet heavily and while I won't say it's not going to happen but I had thought was that they were going to just like brush that aside and not worry about it and they clearly are worried about it and they're worried because they're hearing from people and it's making them her son was up on the Hill last night and I was talking to a senator he's actually Democrat but he's one of the Democrats who is extremely well liked by Republicans on hell works a lot with them has a lot of relationships and a lot of co sponsor legislation and I was asking him just how things felt and I said to him you know this and feel you take your Republican colleagues have a spring in their step right now are they excited by all the things they're going to get done and you can use another terrified like everybody is terrified and I was asking him about twenty eighteen and just how he saw that the playing out and he said that he's not happy don't shop on the election but it is the case that is a lot easier for Democrats running in twenty eighteen uncaring Hillary Clinton on their backs and that is the thing that a lot of these members of Congress are feeling as I want to try to point this implicit what Sarah and Matt are both saying and relates now I'm like my piece to piece I wrote about how to stop the talk receives in America this week which is what the Tea Party did extremely effectively in two thousand and nine was to be focused on Congress famously during the August recess they went to a million count halls they overwhelm the town halls the scare the hell of a Democratic legislators but they'll scare the hell out of Republican legislators they destroyed the capacity for someone like Olympia Snowe or Chuck Grassley or any of these number of folks who might have cooperated on the Affordable Care Act to land any kind of bipartisan support to the bill and that was very very effective Congress is a much more open institution of protests than the presidency members of Congress they're part of the House are up more often they have fewer constituents they're more free of the constituents they do have so is Congress often very vulnerable to protest and that is really what you're seeing in the kind of mobilization Sarah spoke about quote the camp out not long ago from Dave brat who is the congressman who beat their camper and a primary he said to the Richmond Dispatch was a very sad event of conservative groups you can use talking to some allies about the situation is and he said he's talked about the folk act he said these women are up in my grill where ever I go and it's not to offer positive feedback and it's really upsetting him minutes of setting a lot of these Republicans because that kind of mobilization it does scare them it scares them about their next election and there is a real feeling that between what is happening the chop administration which is to the from the perspective Republicans in Congress very chaotic there's not a lot of forward guidance coming out they don't have a good legislative affairs team and so Republican Congress finals completely unable to plan which is a really big and I think under notice dynamic happening right now they're not effectively planning their own legislative calendar the nominations which will talk about later are taking longer do so the scheduling of Capitol Hill's completely fucked up right now but in addition to dropping a plan and not being caught in the chump administration's ability to messages stuff and sequence that they're also afraid of what they're seeing both in the polls and in their home districts which is a highly mobilized liberal and even to some degree maybe independent base and increasing kind of demoralized and apathetic conservative base and I think that the de mobilization cited this is is also important I mean I think something that every day after the election when you when people are always hoping the winners that like their team is going to keep up the momentum and it's going to like carry them forward into the new year and what you often see is that that doesn't happen right that like you have a number of Democratic senators representing states The Donald Trump one quite overwhelmingly and those senators are going to like go with Trump on a certain number of issues but they're not like at least as I understand it the high camp and Jon tester were not besieged by angry protests from phone calls urging them to confirm that divide us right like the Conservatives are complacent and the grassroots people who really wanted Donald Trump to win the election are happy that Donald Trump has won the election and they may continue to be happy with them and vote for him and whatever but people feel that they have like done their part when their side wins when their side loses they become much more inclined to like get up and go do things and it set the sadness of this which you can tell has taken members of Congress back even though on another level like it's very predictable you don't see the people who are out of the two thousand I in town halls like campaigning against they see a link showing up on mass like saying like yes you have to get rid of a CA e don't see as much you know it from the legislators I've spoken with I think we do hear from constituents are fostered parts of days yea the doctors the premiums but it seems like way more told that to the other side and I think this is like a pretty common dynamic I know I've heard from abortion rights groups like Planned Parenthood and I'm there struggle to fund raise in the Obama era like it's hard to get people to donate to your pro choice group when you purchase president even though all the stuff was up in the states where they had their best fund raising during the George W Bush era see the same thing with ACLU were you solid just eighteen million in donations when they typically get three million one thing's a thing about the moment are in think were just at the beginning of something and I think there's an earlier like it's going to get much bigger as we get into the heart of legislating some big issues what other things I'm curious to see how this develops is whether you do end up with the Tea Party of the left of people who knew anything of the Tea Party process in two thousand and nine they weren't as much about primary and people there mostly about you know making sure people didn't support the health care law and they achieved that the major no Republicans voted for it that but then it really you know crew intellect pie marrying due to the conservative Democrats and really going at people who are eight to the right from the further right and there is a good us think about whether that could possibly develop from this on the left like I've seen some more liberal friends on Facebook talking about you not better not support Cabinet member X or Y or like you should be primary like from years ago that happens if you see the increasing polarization we've seen on the right like that happens on the left is an offshoot of the So this is a thinking to be a very difficult strategic choice for Democratic legislators are some really important happening here and I've talked to some of them about this and I think they are they're not sure what they're going to do let's take the Kilgore such a nomination from it as an example so let's see be your Democratic senator not the most vulnerable not a Joe Manchin right is up in West Virginia which is super Trump country but just a Democratic senator you know and not for me completely safe state one question that you have to face just as a starting point is whether or not let's leave our decided not to vote no on this guy right you would probably lose a primary if you voted yes are going to vote no on your course it's not because he's a bad guy not because he's adventurous but just because you don't agree with him you think Rosie Wade was correctly decided to case so you're going to vote no now the question is does the filibuster so now that this was a game theory becomes a little bit different there is a view and Democrats to hold this view and I think they're probably right about it that if they use a filibuster on Kilgore such is considered a qualified nominee in an open seat that is replacing Antonin Scalia they filibuster will be taken apart by Republicans Republicans will finish the job Democrats began in twenty thirteen and eliminate the filibuster not just from all confirm nominees up to the Supreme Court now including Supreme Court use a filibuster and it gets eliminated what's the point of doing that well one version is that there's no point doing that and C should hold a filibuster and wait until maybe there's a time when you can use it and Republicans moderate public and will be more open to it like say up it justice it's a better Ginsburg side street iron go windsurfing all the time you use it than as a foursome or compromise nominee and you might be able to get Lindsey Graham in a couple people like that to back you up on that you're not going to get a a a liberal nominee but maybe you'll be able to get somebody who's not super far to the right on the other hand if you don't filibuster Gore such the liberal base is going to lose their shit you they're going to be furious they're going to feel correctly like you did not do everything you could fight for them and this mobilization that is currently allied with the Democratic Party will do what happened with the tea party and begin to see the Democratic Party as also another obstacle and meanwhile admits that you will have the Democratic politicians who really do have a Social Media Bass Elizabeth Warren's you're Bernie Sanders to some we are Cory Booker is and they'll probably because the more liberal politicians on the filibuster side you can get creamed by by this liberal activist group that I think is going to be the set of strategic decisions that decides what you're talking about if Democrats decide to play this a little more traditionally and not filibuster everything to work with a Trump administration places they think there's a space to work together and need to do this because they think it'll protect vulnerable nominees in twenty eighteen I think they're going to see the mobilization of this progressive corruption or the press for options going to turn on them on the other hand there is a worry among Democrats that if they go sort of full opposition they are going to imperiled folks like Heidi high camp in twenty eighteen and potentially weaken the strategic position going forward and also discontinue this breaking of the norms that they themselves are this very personally upset about but I think that sells a little bit short like exactly how nutty the Tea Party insurgency became like that to me like Hi Tea Party is right he was when you got to the point where in Delaware right there was an open Senate seat in a clearly a blue state that it looked like Republicans were going to win with a well qualified moderate nominee who had run and won statewide in Delaware previously and instead of him they nominated a crazy lady like that's that's a pore strategic choice right and Republicans like the reason it took them until twenty four team to capture the Senate was like that kind of like extreme primary in the salon policy you know not just things like maybe they took a harsher line and so you settle then was tactically why A's but they would take proposals from Obama and in order to avoid cooperating they would generate worse policy outcome you know I mean like the Obama administration really did come and I really did want to do a grand bargain on the federal budget that would have substantially reduced the long term trajectory of federal spending and tea party infused Republicans say why did that opportunity aside and now their own president has like a position that is to the left of Obama is because they decided to throw a chance at like she knew in compromise I don't think we've seen a lot of indication from that Trump administration yet that they are interested in that kind of thing but to me like that's the big question we discussed a little bit hypothetically because of an infrastructure bill to me like that's the task of Trump regroup so out of bed and is like OK I'm giving Republicans their Supreme Court justice that they want that maybe in other cases will retire someday and they'll get another one like they're excited we're letting Congress work out its own tax in Obamacare issues who knows I want to get my poll numbers up let's I go back to that infrastructure bill idea that seem to really work well for me on the campaign trail and the Chuck Schumer says he embraces and so like if Trump makes that pivot to the center but do Democrats feel pressure to slap his hand away because its incipient Nazi ism or do they respond in like normal politics fashion which is like if the other guy wants to compromise you come and you see if you can compromise and I don't think we'd like to have that put to the test quite like scribbling out an executive order overnight without clearing it with any of the seven days is not like a good faith effort to get anyone to cooperate with you so I mean of course they're not cooperating he looks like they say mantras is go online you get one and they ship it to your house the William H Helix different is that this is a company that understands the different people are different you know it seems like common sense but it's like we don't walk the same we don't talk the same one same size same shape what we don't wear the same clothes and 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whatever things I wonder about what the future of this thing looks like is how long a Kimber says and I'm still of two minds on this one is that like I was the one side is that you make the arguments that I was really expecting this much of a mobilization so quickly on the part of the left that to see both the women's march be really large the protests in airports these town hall protests they have taken me by surprise by how frequent they are how much they're happening how much legislators seem to care about them and what things I wonder about is that whether whether that sustainable like how I think the victories that have happened make it more sustainable about like what I've talked to the CA advocates of one of the things are really buoyed by is that the Trump administration announced that it was going to stop advertising for Obamacare open enrollment and twelve hours later reversed that decision it's a little unclear to me how much of that is because of the outcry how much is because the logistics of just ticking down and you already paid for turns out to be a little bit challenging but both things will be true with the larger Affordable Care Act both the outcry in the logistics are going to be a challenge so you have those pushing people long but it isn't holds up and I think two thousand I'm remembering correctly really had like a finite set of said weeks of the summer where your protests followed by that I think a big protest in DC when the law was passing maybe I forgot where there's like one big march in Washington I don't know how long it has to hold up to be effective in how long it will hold this for I think it's important to create a distinction between protesting is an act and like movements as a social organism so this is where I think the idea of protesting the new punches are really really important and interesting concept actually so what you've been seen recently and I think you had on it well is that the bar for people to decide what they're going to do with their Friday night or Saturday is go out with a bunch of like minded people and hold signs or do something to some kind of act that is political has also gotten really low for the Obama administration mobilized those very same people around those very same issues to actually go out and spend their time on them it was incredibly incredibly difficult to basically they couldn't do it and now it's almost nothing these things are happening you know day by day week by week with very spontaneous organizing now I saw David frum piece about what makes for an effective protest and David is a guy feel any guesswork for the church W Bush is a very smart guy and he's been protested himself before and he's giving this kind of advice which is a sort of I think respectability politics vision of protesting about how you know it needs to be something that has modern Republicans in it that it needs to be something that would get Trump voters on your side and I think that in terms of how this stuff works even if that would be sort of conceptual if you could do it more effective I think it's wrong and the way in which its wrongs that this will live or die its persistence as you put it Sarah will live or die based on whether or not it is a socially capable movement whether or not people enjoy being part of it I got Facebook invited to and I don't go to these protests but I got this becoming to protest recent was a dance protest I think is outside the Supreme Court and had likes very funny lines in the invitation you know we don't need alternative facts because our hips Don't lie in things like that and I thought that's actually really smart that it looks like fun that's something people might enjoy going to do is an old line that I think is attributed to Abbie Hoffman that I don't want to be part of your evolution if there's no dancing and the degree of something the Tea Party did really well was it turned out were originally very large protests in to local social groups there were all these different tea Party Patriots and Tea Party Express and people became friends in the dating those groups and people got married in those groups and that's how things persist to become part of your life they become a social community that you have responsibilities towards and that you enjoy seeing the people from and so one real question that I just don't know the answer to how effective the folks who are organizing these protests are these Facebook invites and so forth in and building a list and then having people set up like a weekly meet up a friend sometimes it's a protest maybe sometimes he'll clean up trash at the river and I think that that stuff though has a lot to do with the resiliency of these kinds of groups I think of a challenge for Michael F protest groups is that the progressive coalition is more demographic Lee diverse white and so like as you are saying some of it is like what does this seem like something that somebody like me would do I know my my father and his girlfriend in California and they like they went to a protest because they saw how big the protests were on the East Coast you know it was like a signal I need it and it was correcting people like them were the people who were going to the protests at the same time I don't think that these were all white protests by any means but like these were not Black Lives matter protests they were not the immigration protests from two thousand and seven right those are discreet demographic social community is that also Democratic Party politicians like count on for their votes and that are capable of mounting large scale protests when they want to but they seem to be existing in somewhat parallel universes the Republican Party's at the collision is much more mountainous and so it's easier for like one kind of movement for one kind of people to sort of gain a ton of power and traction and things like that and I think you know it'll be interesting to see because there will be things that come up that mobilize more African American Latino community is at that than we've seen so far and it'll be interesting to see you know how leaders in these different groups are able to sort of build ties and bridge those kinds of gaps because I I do think that you will see that light activism is a little bit habit forming and that you know people will keep doing it now keep doing keep doing it but it is also true that you know you need bigger numbers than that to like win elections and to actually do things and you know we saw in the twenty in the twenty sixteen election ride which obviously went generally poorly for Democrats like the big exception so that was in Nevada and to extend extend in that the sheriff's race in Maricopa County where our Pio was finally defeated in both those cases it was like painstaking organizing in the Latino community in southwestern states looked like the sort of great hope that there was getting some plays and that is now like disconnected from the anti Trump protests that we've been seeing so far those were not like the big women's march cities and you know I think to be really effective people are going to have to sort of go beyond people would just like them one thing that this movement does have its eye is a lot of an unemployed former employees of the Hillary Clinton campaign unexpectedly without jobs and I think that might actually end up mastering a significant amount like this project I mentioned earlier town hall project which is basically this google doc of town halls across the country that's being created about a hundred or less because about a hundred volunteers calling Congress getting information on what meetings are having adding to the spreadsheet it's um it's all being former Clinton and organizer from Ohio who was looking for something like this confined and decidedly well maybe I'll post it and it's basically become as of last week is full time job where he was spending two or three hours of on a day and then blew up a little bed has been playing is like sixteen hour days to keep it updated so there is that group of people who I think we're we're not making plans for post election you very much expected to have jobs in some sort of level related to a Democratic administration and I think that could end up mastering a decent amount of people who really wanted Clinton to win who worked on her when are people who are also looking for jobs right now I'd like to go back to something we're talking little bit earlier that is a bit off the question of how the protests of all of which is the decision of the Democrats negotiating and working with a Trump administration and something that is striking about that is that it also is very dependent on the decisions Trump himself makes if he had after the election try to strike a more unifying tone and reach out to more people and really sought to get his approval rating to the fifty five fifty
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The Time Traveling Emanuel Brothers