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Veep Debate and Cranky Judges

Update: 2016-10-05
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Sarah, Ezra, and Matt debate Mike Pence's puzzling performance at the vice presidential debate and highlight new research on the surprising link between college football and prison sentences.

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the following podcast contains explicit language and to another office of the weeds boxes policy podcast intently network to Matthew place he sat with me as my colleagues are Cliff and joining us from New York is is the Daily show's Ezra Klein The Cars The Daily Show was as though she was good why is everything York so far from everything else in New York City today it's a it's a big gap to the largest of the ways things were close together would be small dishes good it is very very funny so last night's was on The Daily Show after the VP debate you can find it on the interweb and right before I came on they did when their man on the streets cats and the point of the streets killing literally busy the the correspondent said ways of a disguised all these experts as people on the street because nobody wanted to listen to boring nerd stock that is a break now a boring like to show as I know I think the show is sequenced and usually don't so you were that become essential to discuss the vice presidential debate that I was and by the way presidential campaign I notice a way to do here but if you aren't in the show I might ever know interview on my other podcast is good to great oak presidential debate was the sorbet it was I thought his strange debate to watch because Tim Kaine clearly went in with the game plan of trying to make Mike Pence defend specific things Donald Trump has said or done over the past eighteen months that were strange or offensive and Mike Pence just didn't do it he was he was very well prepared he was very disciplined he was very you know like all the stuff they like teach you in a media training to do and just talk about what you want to talk about Mike Mike Pence does not want to talk about Lisa Machado or whether Vladimir Putin is or intelligent Americans or Donald Trump's tax returns and so he just he just didn't write and it was I mean I think will will will have to see how that sort of plays out but he was a window an interesting alternate reality in which Pence did not separate himself from Donald Trump's campaign theme it's entirely you know he he sort of hit Democrats for being anti police he hit an online order themes he gave a sort of thinking man's of the deportation force concept but it was completely divorced from the kind of wild antics that we've come to associate with The Donald Trump show and it seemed to me that it was probably all things considered not an evening that would worry Hillary Clinton's campaign but that should make people I don't know take take a little bit more more seriously and sort of the the idea of an enduring city to city down from a policy exactly but that but that there there is a recognizable horror there in the hands of a more disciplined more professional politician looks looks pretty good and effective in syllable to me I think this speaks like one of the larger ideas of the debate I think we're talking before for weenie when it aired and feel like a weed the debate that there wasn't a lot of policy but I think we can kind of dry out from it is what this means for the future of the Republican Party and our land one of our borders are really great season is over night about Trump is um after Trump anything in the this expectation if you do have a Donald Trump loss that there's a lot of hand of like what we do in such disarray and maybe there isn't like maybe what we saw last night is kind of you see a scale version of that where you kind of don't acknowledge these things have happened you like you of the for trumpet not acknowledging the things he's saying when Tim Kaine brings them up he just kind of moves on like Matt said that you do in media training where they kind of teacher to say yes but the important thing is Acts and then you just like literally move on or toy different subject it makes me understand better how you could see a version of that happening on a larger scale after the election like Matt said not from some of the ideas that Trump is generated because obviously there's large part of a population his message appeals to that is energized by Hammond don't disappear after the election but it makes it easier to see how this becomes not dislike moment of panic and what we do now in disarray but just kind of moving on in a quiet way if you have literally the guy who on his ticket already doing the same thing the contra argument here I think I used to be a believer in post Trump Trump is a man I've become less and less of one as time's gone I think Mike Pence is actually a really good way to explore the different facets of this so there is no doubt that there is a message strategy could succeed Donald Trump you can very much imagine a politician who took tall chums immigration restriction is nationalism traditional some racial conservatism white resentment there's things you can put together with a more skilled sch until politician and as Mike Pence did last night you can make them sound a little bit more normal on a national stage but nothing worth looking at who Mike Pence is and why that wouldn't happen why Mike Pence would run that campaign if he ran in two thousand and twenty Mike Pence is a candidate who is extremely close to the Koch Brothers which I don't mean a conspiratorial way I think Which wich folks often talk about but others do have policy positions and their policy positions their original donors to that the Cato Institute ten of libertarian theme to them they're reasonably pro immigration they're pretty pro criminal justice reform is what Mike Pence is having to do last night on the chopstick Ed was be extremely restrictions on immigration and that was be extremely traditionalist on Law Order issues he went on what might have been ineffective but was a very fallacious and for the current Republican Party very old school ref on Law Order is just an implicit bias was unreal thing and this one I think is interesting about trying to think about Trump is him after Trump there is not the case before Donald Trump we did not know that there might be constituents in Republican Party for a policy platform that combined a sort of Beacon sort of anti trade economic populism with a social conservatism met and traditional ism or not to say that kindly but the reason people didn't do it the reason it never worked the reason and I would really use his account exam reason Mike Huckabee did not become the Republican nominee in two thousand and eight for two thousand and twelve for two thousand and sixteen is because there really are things that party does for you in terms of directing money toward you in terms of sending signals to the media about who should get coverage just making sure you're heard and what Donald Trump was able to do with short circuit those things he was able by dint of his own money which she ultimately need to spend but it meant he could he was able by his own celebrity by his shameless and skill in in in securing media attention he was able to evade the normal ways a party shuts down an argument it doesn't want to have and what I think is sort of interesting when you think about this is yes I think Mike Pence showed more skilled politician could do could run it rubbish of the campaign but also the Mike Pence his career who is close to how he's risen up in Republican politics should certify it wouldn't happen because you lose the source of institutional support that created and trained him in the first place or scene I feel like the sort of post nomination wrapping Donald Trump though has shown that there is more possibility of doing that then you're giving credit for write in at one point Donald Trump was talking about raising taxes on the rich right which we know is an overwhelmingly popular idea and we know that Donald Trump dropped immediately write and I think the reason Donald Trump dropped that is that the Republican Party but to feel like there's no way Paul Ryan would endorse someone who wanted to raise taxes on wealthy but I think we've seen that like Republicans have all lined up behind Trump on trade from Time Crime trumpeting immigration and I think that like part of what Mike Pence was showing it was a proof of concept that like professional that neo Trump ism looks good and that Trump has shown that he is true that the Koch brothers and some Republicans who they work with wanted to field test this idea of a more libertarian ash Republican Party but I think we've seen that Republicans are open to going in that the Trump your direction that like the core commitments on taxes on environmental regulation on abortion and gun rights are what they really really care about and that there is flexibility for people to take to be criminal justice reformers but also to be law and order types right that's like in the zone of flexibility and I think that we're seeing that there was at stab read like a Rand Paul and Mike Pence was even part of this idea that you know small government should should incorporate criminal justice reform ideas but I think I think politically we are seeing that doesn't work in his work with Republican base it maybe doesn't work with the voters and also that Democrats particularly as Barak Obama personally steps off the stage there is more and more pressure on white Democrats to acknowledge and embrace the concerns of non white Americans in a way that creates political vulnerabilities I think is true that had Mike Pence ran on this agenda in twenty sixteen that the institutional forces in the Republican Party but have sidelined him Mike Pence is so great but if some Republican you have always we had grade I don't view him as I go back now I I never believe that Mike Pence is great I have always believed that Mike Pence is well networked with the different constituencies has a good pulse on where Republicans are anti pants and I think that you know I I think he I I believe the lie the thought for years that the smart thing for Republicans to do would be to nominate one of these politically successful bland Midwestern governors who they're constantly electing because planned mid Westerners are an important swing group in general elections and they never seem to want to do that because they're so boring but they should be tried at some point but all I'm saying is I think I think that the past is one thing right like it took a Donald Trump to put Trump ism on the agenda but another we've seen what work from and what didn't work from it I feel like Republicans will be much more open to the idea of what there was some some stuff here they got his votes there was some stuff here that people liked there was some stuff here that people thought was too bizarre but that like if we can incorporate this into our professional politics you know we can we get some yeah and it took a lesson you are saying as red as a deity who knew these people out there and I I guess I disagree little that I don't think we knew people would support these types of ideas out there has been his numbers as we didn't tell Trump came along and you are going back to like the Huckabee example Gary of a case of someone you support some of these ideas but that isn't doing it in the way the way that Trump hasn't set in like you said that is not the entertainers not the celebrity is not the kind of well known person who can get those people out of the woodworking kind of Bach institutions and it seems like almost like a flood gate opening in a way is how I think about it that yes like now was saying I don't think this could have worked for Huckabee in twenty sixteen that he could not have shown up at the Trump message and delivered it but now that is out there like now is out there in the ether now that you have institutions seeing that it appeals to people and I think we have learned about and believes that we didn't out there in as a stronger as large as we did with previous elections that it makes me more more bullish than you the future of Trump and Trump is um without Trump that it could continue because you have this proof and you could have needed that bombastic character once to get it out there to mobilize these people and that puts on the radar in a way that it hasn't been in previous elections and possibly makes it more acceptable to these kind of established elite types going forward I think one reason to say that we knew they were out there that I think of from very much as a descendant of the Pat Buchanan Ross Perot style of politics began in insurgency within the Republican Party that was unexpectedly potent and then Ross Perot obviously being a third party candidate but both of them showing that they're really did seem to be a group of you know the middle to down scale of voters who or a lot less economically conservative and Republican Party but a lot but very traditional very skeptical of immigration very skeptical of foreign trade in foreign entanglements I actually in some ways an important part of Trump's appeal that he says he was against Iraq war obviously he wasn't but it is a useful line for him in signaling to this group of people for a long time and in the European far right so I don't know the other thing that I think is hard to do right now in the heat of a campaign and I certainly shouldn't admit this about myself is it's very hard to project forward to how parties are going to feel after the outcome so obviously maybe Donald Trump wins and the whole job is and is definitely a thing but it might be that with Kino turnout is overwhelming and it is like Hillary Clinton is a win by four point two and by nine points and two and by nine points on the backs of down scale white voters actually not coming out but on non white voters being terrified by the launch of becoming a very large numbers and I think of how the Republican Party reads those results whatever they may be assuming they lose that will really drive the question of what struck me go now obviously they cannot do what they tried to have twenty twelve and become much more cosmopolitan did develop of a whole new immigration reform plan but I am I'm skeptical that they will go in a sort of Trump this direction if the argument out of this is that it gave the country a third straight Democratic term I want to bring up something though that is a bit off topic and obviously somebody else wants to jump in on the trumpets and they should but I thought from a weedy perspective that the beginning of it was kind of interesting and it was a very good debate for the Committee for responsible Federal Budget which probably the most tax they've ever got and yeah a present as Oliva likely the end it was just weird actually to hear it in this context that is what I will see the framing point here that they're a lot of strange structures on quoting quite objective political journalism and one of the strange things about it they're a bunch of positions if you hold them you would be seen as biased like single payer is good or cutting taxes on rich people is good either one of those would be you taking aside the position elite journalists are allowed to hold without it being read as any kind of favoritism towards anybody is it that his bat the bat the budget should be balanced or closed down immediately and use all that in this debate were the first couple of question just totally bizarre Lee were about be the came out and said in reference to see our FB analysis of the McKenna campaign to tax plan shows that Chileans to the national debt and and Clinton adds billions but just in either one of them solve the national debt one with thing to want to solve right now she also didn't phrase it that way right now it was that both raise the debt when there's this huge issue of magnitude it wasn't huge so I think AMC the CFR visas if I be for those who don't know the I Think I Think Tank here in DC that is generally very anti debt I think is a fair way to discuss are term they're pro short term stimulus when you need it but they are like they're there reason to live is that we should lower long term entitlement debt from long term entitlement responsible means less debt yes and so the report has found that the Clinton and Clinton's proposals would raise the debt by two hundred million over the next decade transfer Vols would raise it by five point three trillion weight in order of men we have a great cartoon explain up on Vox Kelvin Chan Ching that explains all of this but it was such an odd false equivalence to the giving all of us being like wonky budget nerds were like What is this like there is so different and how they would change the budget so I think aside from your point about wise is an accepted norm is also very odd to treat the two as equivalents because they're both in his bucket of raising the debt that the office and became like the same tax plan to make the same problems the dish is not a problem I much I raise the dead it's just we're not facing high interest rates are not facing any problems associated with the dead and the next question was about Social Security shortfalls decades in the future just given them there economic problems the country faces I mean just the same fucking day bill Clinton is out bashing Obamacare in so bizarre to see the vice presidential debate focus on these things it that it just I can't imagine who is or who is out there who is a glint like these are the issues the front of the Milan anything to clarify the point right and I think we understand as media people tried to not only are their affirmative statements you can make that sort of encoded and ideological slant but the questions that you pass can also do that right if you had a debate which was focused on the questions of What are you going to do to ensure that women have access to safe contraceptives what are you going to do to reduce carbon dioxide emissions what are you going to do to reduce the incidence of poverty among the people who already have fulltime jobs that would be putting a very left tilt on the dial because part of what is like can stitch a Div of world politics in the United States is to say that those things are probably right where is if you ask questions about like what are you going to do to make it easier for small businesses to file their taxes in a legal and efficient way to do to protect the rights of American sportsman to obtain firearms right now we're putting a conservative slant on it but the belief seems to be among the lot of reporters that simply defining high of government borrowing as a problem is non slant right in the way if you ask What are you going to do to make the economy grow faster I think both parties would claim would say like that is an important problem right there isn't you could have a political party that was like a limits to Growth Movement but we don't have one right and so it's but it's just like it's not obvious that that the dead it certainly doesn't go without saying or argument that having the government borrow money is bad I don't think it's bad if Vogue recently for Alexander Hamilton and Mike one of his policy was that he wanted to create a national debt right it wasn't that he couldn't make the revenue the spending line up right where he made some kind of mistake that he wanted it to be the case that a savings vehicle exist and that was guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States government because he thought I think correctly that it would be healthier to create a national economy that had this kind of safe savings vehicle an investment vehicle that invested economic actors in the integrity of the federal government of course there were people who thought he was wrong about that but I mean it's like a real idea like should the government carry a large debt load or shouldn't dead and to just do questions that assume it shouldn't of his strange and then if you're going to harp on it as Sarah was say it's weird to come so poorly armed with actual information about the candidates budget proposals there was something that struck me as fascinating in the way that both the cat was actually prepared for this and I think one reason there weren't prepared for it it's really interesting just how much this is changes twenty twelve twenty twelve The debt and is only four years ago wasn't that long that was the Paul Ryan was on the ticket was that he stood for think his plan a cheap this but he stood for the Republican idea that debt was the looming problem in the country the guy the massive cuts to government services to do anything about it and one does the reflecting on watching that with just how far and how fast the Republican Party has traveled on that question in four years Donald Trump has a plan that is the most irresponsible tax cut plan I think probably ever put to paper in the Republican Party it is an extraordinary thing to read I think speaking of the Committee for responsible Federal Budget I think Mark Goldman gave me a quote sometime this summer like it's not even take in the universe of the realistic but it isn't I think would be some like half of all income tax revenue would disappear but beyond even that they're just not trying to find things they would cut they don't talk even really vaguely about things they would cut they're just not concerned with debt as a problem Donald Trump when asked about things like security Medicare he will tend to say that he does make the economy grow so quickly that these cuts will not be necessary and by the same token the Clinton campaign does try to pay for everything and will talk about you know did you know a fiscally responsible plan but it's really not where their focus to either and this does reflect objective reality of the short term debt coming down a bit of last couple of years but it bit fascinating to watch a mom of a question said that felt like a rose from twenty twelve put into the twenty sixteen election and it just looked very strange but I also thought it was a real failing and Tim Kane's part here when when he got that question sir throughout the debate when it became clear that Pence was sort of getting away from from Donald Trump came in it seems to me did not too anything to like expert Kate to a viewer what policy stakes in the election were you know where's Mike Pence I mean I don't particularly agree with his framing but that sort of part of the problem you know Mike Pence part of sort of standard conservative loss and things that you know Clinton stands for Big taxes and big government and we're going to get the economy moving again and Kim do anything to highlight the idea that if Donald Trump becomes president not just wacky Trump tweets are going to happen but like everyone is going to lose their health insurance that lots of poor kids are not going to get food assistance you know there's going to be an enormous tax cuts for rich people efforts that have been made to curb carbon dioxide pollution are going to go away write this this kind of stuff that to the extent that Mike Pence like wants to talk policy with a conservative frame he would think Democrats would want to push back and discuss policy EU know in in their progressive frame and some speaks to kind of overall campaign strategy of the of the Clinton campaign but I think is that Tim Kaine is a guy who is clear that the Democrats really really like him he's been promoted very rapidly from that whole series of jobs was DNC chair and put on the ticket as vice president but he's never in that time been like a hugely effective public communicator when he was chair he wasn't like on TV constantly crashing at the top Barak Obama Sir again and Hillary Clinton is someone I would say strengths as a politician the people she works with are really enthusiastic about who's very broadly knowledgeable who is widely respected by people who are in the team but who is not a great sort of writer and narrator of of what is she is a ballot and it struck me that we're looking at a world as as Obama steps off the stage if we have a clean came administration that we are going to have a Democratic administration that is is led by people who are neither very strong at presenting a sort of concise coherent this is what we are trying to do it like this is how we how we think of the world kind of thing and you know I don't know how much that matters exactly although as a writer I always find it a little disturbing that Hillary Clinton doesn't seem to be able to like convey like this is my point which is what she's saying thanks yet see it going either way present and future pulling apart it's a little hard to predict the future looks like I could see one version of a world with his kinder minds as his profile Hillary items like Tim Kaine is amazing plus people like the people who like am the people work with them like Camelot that and you could see that being not a great skill for running for vice presidents Avenue It was a skill those on display last name but could be a quite effective skill for governing for when you have to talk to legislators when you have a lot of the work you're doing is with a smaller group of people the kind of legislators who work with the lobbyist the White House staff that the ability to build those relationships could be a quite important skill and one that you don't get to show off a campaign setting that there's no good way to show off the scale of like building the small side relationships one or two trying to do in a campaign as Wu a very large group of voters and then you could see that kind of the other side of it where if you have these kind of an inspiring speeches where I think you know Obama with the city unions with a zoom the larger dresses really was bringing people along with them to relax and he was in creating this group of people feel quite passionate about his presidency I don't I don't really know what what happens when that's missing it feels very much like a trade off like everyone has their set of skills Obama has been fantastic orator and I am curious and interested to see that where this other set of skills goes one other thing you know what out about Cain's performance last night it did seem like it came in like a very clear idea of how these lines I went to deliver them in like that as I'm going to do and nothing about pencil change that and that easement and a little bit for sticking to that strategy when clearly Pence came in with a totally other game but he nails the CIA from his side where you they have all these clips now a pen saying you know he didn't say that for things like trumped up please add things Pence definitely sad that I think will be churned out in some kind of ad formats very clearly so I think there was there was a method to what he was doing that was not useless in the way that I think it's it's been framed in a lot of writing that I've seen in being vice president often isn't actually a great way to become super popular traditionally the vice president role as an attack dog role and that doesn't being the attack dog it doesn't really make you well liked and came came into the OS night you can argue about stylistic things I think he you know other people could have maybe been a more effective attack dog fences had a very comfortable demeanor on TV but it really was a case that Tim Kaine went out there ended with a Low can camping needed him to
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Veep Debate and Cranky Judges