Resonance Podcasts

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey as we see extreme heat in Southern Europe. Topics explored include:  Not much response in pricing to extreme heat, although there is some reduced capacity of the French nuclear fleet.Demand has increased in southern Europe, but there is significant renewables generation to counter that right across Europe.The variability of renewables and the impact on the management of grid.Norwegian gas production increases following the return of a major processing plant. Further maintenance lies ahead next month.LNG drops, but meets demand and storage is expected to be at capacity going into winter.However, any significant cold snap or supply disruption still presents a real risk for both winter and next summer, especially with LNG demand in Asia picking up.The threat to remaining Russian gas supplies.Listen to the latest episode of the Resonance podcast.  This episode was recorded on 18th July 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer as we return to equilibrium, but the fragile balance of supply and demand is causing challenges across Europe. Topics explored include:  We return to equilibrium, but hydro and nuclear capacity remain a risk.Renewables have improved and softened markets, but being intermittent present a challenge to stability without the appropriate storage technology to better manage grid supply.Demand destruction is coming to the fore, with natural gas demand in May 23 25% down on average across EU member states, compared with the average for May between 2019-21.What does the new European normal look like? What would a difficult scenario mean for prices in Q4 2023?Listen to the latest episode of the Resonance podcast.  This episode was recorded on 7th July 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey discuss the market implications of Europe reaching full storage capacity by the end of summer, as well as the potential impact of unexpectedly mild weather.Topics explored include: Short term spike on mutiny news, but no fundamental changes to gas flows from Russia.Intra-day volatility has returned somewhat, driven by supply constraints. E.g. Extension of maintenance at a gas processing facility in Norway; expected to be resolved in July. We’re not back to end of June price lows, but far from way off highs at time extension was announced.Gas storage good in Europe – stores 76% fullInflation and high interest rates may have a marginal impact on forward pricing due to less demand for commoditiesCoal generation still on track to be phased out, despite requirement for baseload powerConcerns about renewable energy supply chain, as with rest of energy sector, new wind perhaps more expressive than expected and CODs not attractive enough to drive new generation development. Skills gap may also need to be filled.The Dutch government has confirmed that the Groningen gas field will close in October, mainly due to earthquake issues in the area.It is expected that US LNG cargoes will increase over the next few months, which will help boost storage.With storage close to capacity, if we don't see an increase in demand going into September and the weather is milder than expected, the markets will adjust to encourage demand or reduce production. However, further unplanned outages, extreme hot weather, and nuclear outages in France could of course affect this situation.This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 27th June 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer about why Europe is not out of the woods on energy price concerns. Topics explored include: Complacency reigns following the price plunge, as gas price spike highlights market risks.Focus on structural dangers to manage price risk.Storage in Europe is not up to the challenge of a cold winter.The recent spike caused by minor issues only – extended maintenance in Norway and demand from Asia.Renewables are supporting the market, but intermittent production due to weather creates a volatile market. Policy and contract length to provide adequate baseload is weak across Europe – a shift is needed to manage price volatility during the transition to a low carbon economy. Watch out for nuclear production, hydro and LNG demand in East Asia as we head towards Q3 2023.While German industry is concerned about a cut in remaining Russian gas supplies.This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 20th June 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey about the return of energy market price volatility. Topics explored include:  Power market balancing met by coal generation with nuclear reactors offline and demand increases with warmer weather. Reductions in LNG arrivals indicates a general slowdown of deliveries as Asia becomes a more attractive destination. Volatility returns after months of falling prices. The state of the global economy puts downward pressure on oil prices. Despite plans to diversify supply generation for power, a huge reliance of gas remains while storage technologies are developing to meet the needs of intermittent renewable generation.  This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 13thJune 2023. 

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer about the relative calm we are experiencing, and why it is at risk as we head into the summer months.Topics explored include:A price plunge, but what next for Europe?What about carbon given its volatile past?Why persistent structural risk puts the relative calm in jeopardy.Demand destruction in Europe due to lack of supporting policy.Supply availability while good at present, is countered by higher supplier margins – more so in Europe than the UK.Across Europe the percentage of commodity costs has increased relative to non-commodity costs:Management of commodity costs has once again become an important feature for good delivered energy prices.Will this trend continue with the potential to make Europe attractive for industry once more?If you haven’t already, why you should be looking to tender your supply now.This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 6th June 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey as near-term energy prices continue to fall, the risk to LNG supply from the US and demand from Asia arises.Topics explored include:UK renewable assets lower demand for gas, seeing exports to Europe where prices are at a premium.Responding to falling LNG prices, Asian buyer demand tentatively returns to the market.If prices continue to decline the US may reduce LNG shipments.Structurally the UK and Europe may remain uncompetitive for manufacturing for some time.This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 30th May 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer as prices fall, discussing the innate risk of a single source of supply for gas. Topics explored include: Structural issues effecting European markets remain. The 3 pillars – weather, LNG and storage. TTF prices falls, but only for near term spot and month ahead purchases. LNG remains structurally more expensive, while east Asia switches to alternative supplies, for now. Will that change when LNG prices reach a pivotal level?  Water levels are a cause for concern ahead of August, reflecting on the peak of prices last year. When not to tender as risks lie ahead.  For details of the discussion, listen to the latest episode of the Resonance podcast below.  This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 23rd May 2023. 

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Daniel Veasey as prices soften ahead of the summer.  Topics explored include:  Softening of near-term pricing while winter prices hold. Economic data impacts oil prices, despite OPEC cuts. With LNG delivery at record levels, do falling prices risk supply being diverted to Asia? While supported in recent weeks with increased rainfall and wind power generation, sensitivities around the impact of a mild winter on hydro remain. If the Russia and Ukraine war escalates, risk remains over LNG supplies to Europe. As energy prices in Europe fall, is a recovery in industrial demand underway? UK energy intensive industries are advised to explore government support now.  This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 4th May 2023.  

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, as markets plateau, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer about the structural dangers that remain and the risk of a rapid return to higher prices.  Topics explored include:As we enter Q2 we see a more supply-based market where equilibrium is returning.Joint European energy purchasing raised during the height of the energy crisis subsides, for now. With shocking prices over the energy crisis, many buyers wonder if they should wait or move now on contracts, prices, and where. A supplier market remains, but what does that mean? Recent articles in the market press talk of gas oversupply, but what does the fragility of Europe’s gas balance mean in terms of the risk of a rapid return to higher prices? Supply issues from Norway and France discussed in previous episodes persist, creating uncertainty across Europe, an issue compounded by nuclear generation in Germany being consigned to history.This sees a huge reliance on LNG, intensifying risk between now and 2025, sustaining premiums in prices at least until then. This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 20th April 2023.  

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Daniel Veasey about the recent volatility in energy markets and what that might mean for the remainder of 2023.   Topics explored include:Banking crisis triggered a sell-off in oil, followed by OPEC taking the market by surprise with planned cuts in production Power and gas volatility caused by French strikes and cold weather in the short-term A warning of big swings in prices over the next 6 months Maintenance season to begin with concerns over the likelihood of French nuclear returns Gas storage injection season is expected to be comfortable with LNG deliveries supportive for now, but dynamics could change quickly Risk remains, including: the potential for demand from Asia; drought warnings across Europe; the potential for a lack of wind, and of course; the Russian/Ukraine conflict   This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 4th April 2023.  

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer about energy markets, the current equilibrium, and the supply risks ahead in 2023.  Topics explored include: Weather, storage and LNG find a new equilibrium for European prices, for now. A lack of snow and rain brings challenges for Europe’s hydro power. Considering the impact of the French nuclear fleet had on the dramatic fall in prices, what does the state of an aging fleet mean for European power prices? Does the reliance on LNG mean high prices for gas will become the norm? What does that mean for operations in Europe, when competing with other world regions? Is there a risk to LNG prices from Asian demand? This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 23rd March 2023. You can read more about this topic in our article "What does the state of French nuclear plants mean for European energy prices?"

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Daniel Veasey about energy prices today and ahead, with significant falls in prices of gas and electricity over the last 6 months.  Topics explored include:The impact on risk premiums - Storage at record highs across Europe for the time of year, demand destruction, energy efficiencies and strong LNG supplies contribute. European energy prices remain high in the global arena, impacting business competitiveness. Despite the cold snap in northern Europe and a tightness in power generation, there is little impact on power prices as we head towards the summer season. Carbon remains high and on the increase, testing technical levels. Risks for the immediate future: Asian LNG demand, the nuclear fleet in France, Russian supplies to Europe when considering LNG volumes, and the impact of hot summers on power generation with multiple risks from droughts across Europe.  This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 9th March 2023.  

For our first Resonance energy markets podcast of the year, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Nicola Pollard, Energy Markets and Risk Manager at Alfa Energy Group, about the extraordinary events of 2022, looking ahead to 2023 and beyond.Topics explored include:Storage and market mechanism issues, tensions and the subsequent invasion of UkraineGovernment market interventions across the UK and Europe and the energy crisis pushing prices to unsustainable levels for business operationThe need to focus on security of supplyLNG, a saviour to supplies in 2022, but at what cost and what issues need to be considered for 2023?The environmental impact of the dash for coal in EuropeWeather provides further relief for winter, but will investment in strategic storage push up prices?Energy remains a strategic procurement to manage risk and ensure appropriate governanceSupport for business from government in 2023

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Jason Durden about European energy markets and pricing, aspoliticians signal intervention in the energy crisis.Topics explored include:OPEC+ send a signal to the market as prices have fallen since June.Volatility reigns as political intervention talks are planned.The reality of the challenge facing businesses is essential to address now to avoid economic catastrophe.What about carbon as the crisis is fought with increased fossil fuel generation?How does the new UK government manage the current crisis, without derailing the flagship net zero agenda?

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Jason Durden about UK energy markets and pricing, as gas prices reached 11 times higher than a year ago.Topics explored include:The simple truth is there is too much demand and not enough supply.Wholesale gas reaches levels 11 times higher and electricity 9 x higher than 12 months ago.There’s a limit to what can be done on supplies.Germany remarks that NS1 coming back in any meaningful way is a pipedream.Will September see a relief to the vacuum of pricing over the holiday season?

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dr Petra Puskarova about European energy prices, as Russia announces fresh short-term maintenance on NS1 and the market reacts.Topics discussed include:Markets are through the roof following unplanned maintenance of NS1What might happen to prices if NS1 gas flows return80% gas storage levels across Europe are still expected to be metCarbon tested highs in early August, but is now retracing due to lower industry demandGerman industry at risk due to lower gas supply as minister questions relieving sanctions

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa's Jason Durden, Head of Energy Markets and Risk Management, about the current energy crisis being one of price more than storage.Topics explored include:6-month low for Brent crude and other commodities.Oil refinery data suggests Chinese growth is down whilst OPEC and the IEA differ on outlooks for the balance of 2022.Property crisis in China likely affecting demand.Surge in LNG deliveries to the UK and Europe.Gas flows continue to trickle in through Nord Stream 1.Gas storage at 86% in France, 77% in Germany and Italy. 19 days till EU’s -%+ storage target is met, albeit at great cost.Rising risk of default with delivered costs approached £1/kWh.Reliant on Russian gas for some time to come - no quick solutions via electrification of heat, more renewables, energy efficiency, or production of own gas.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dr Petra Puskarova about European energy prices, as the storage milestone for gas is expected to be met in early September.Topics discussed include:Oil is weaker due to economic data, while supply interruptions have disturbed the fundamentalsCarbon in Europe will continue its run till around mid-SeptemberNo changes to gas supplies in recent weeks, but low liquidity and carbon is pushing gas higherWhat might happen in Europe when 80% of gas storage is expected to be met in early SeptemberPositive market news as new US gas exports expected ahead of winter, Germany indicates extending nuclear fleet use, EDF to keep French fleet running during heatwave to avoid blackouts, and a new nuclear plant in Finland begins operational testing 

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Jason Durden about UK energy prices, as we look at the current market situation and consider the winter ahead on prices, the economy and security of supply.Topics explored include:UK NBP gas prices at a 25% discount to Europe.No business in Europe can sustain current prices, even if currently comfortably hedged - will production switch to UK operations?Suppliers prepare for tough period ahead as unsustainable prices continue, a policy vacuum persists while politicians take time off to holiday, and recession looms.Security of supply paradox for the winter ahead – supply will be available, but it might not be affordable.