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Start your day with 5 in 5 with ANZ. You’ll hear the five things you need to know about the global economy and markets in under 5 minutes. Plus a deep dive into emerging trends and issues. Hosted by business and financial journalist Bernard Hickey, the podcast features exclusive insights from ANZ’s global team of experts.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
406 Episodes
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Donald Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, unleashing a furious rally in stocks, but increases his tariff on China to 125% after China retaliates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, as does the Reserve Bank of India. Meanwhile, the Yen is attracting safe-haven demand.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala reviews how Australian states and territories performed at the end of last year.
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Global stocks initially rose overnight on hopes for trade deals, but are off their highs in late US trade on confirmation China’s exports will face a 104% tariff within the day. The RBNZ is set to cut today, but will it be 25 bps or 50? And confidence surveys in Australia and New Zealand show confidence rebounded, but that was before the tariff news.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says the market reaction to the US administration’s latest tariff announcements could result in a Trump pivot.
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Global markets are very volatile again this morning after Donald Trump threatened another 50% tariff on China. Hong Kong stocks fell 9.5%, their worst day since 1997. The Aussie dollar falls below 60 USc to a five-year low. The Kiwi is at a 16-year low.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks at whether China will now push even harder to de-dollarise its foreign reserves.
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Global stocks fall the most since March 2020 after Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff shock. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars slump after China retaliates. And ANZ Research now sees the RBA cutting three times this year, rather than once.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, analyses the economic effects on India of the 26% tariff rate put on its exports to the United States.
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US stocks, bond yields and the US dollar are down sharply after Donald Trump unveiled much higher than expected tariffs. Investors fear a US recession and higher inflation. Australia though may fare better, with gold exempted, and beef prices high.
In our bonus deep dive interview, I spoke with ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny late last night about what would be an unprecedented rise in US tariffs to higher than levels seen after the Smoot Hawley Act of 1930.
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US markets rose overnight, but are in a holding pattern ahead of Donald Trump’s big tariff announcements due at 7am Sydney/Melbourne time. Australia’s housing market picks up, while New Zealand building approvals stay sluggish, and inflation unexpectedly rises in South Korea in the middle of a rate cut cycle.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan outlines ANZ Research’s work developing a new method to detect Foreign Exchange trading signals.
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US markets are defensive ahead of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff news, just as weak US manufacturing and jobs data raises slowdown fears. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates, but hawkishly. Australian consumer confidence rises and retail sales keep recovering.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why Asian economies may be particularly nervous about the upcoming US tariff announcements, and how they might react.
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US stocks and more risk-sensitive currencies weakened ahead of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ of tariff announcements. Gold jumps to US$3,160/oz. China’s factories brace for tariffs too. Australia’s bank lending growth is steady.
In our bonus deep dive interview, Greater China Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses the prospects for a second Plaza Accord-style deal on semiconductors between Taiwan and the United States, similar to a US-Japan deal in 1986.
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US investors start the week nervously ahead of tariff news they’ve yet to fully price in. Gold hits a new high. Japanese inflation is rising, which is seen leading to another Bank of Japan rate hike. And New Zealand consumer confidence fell in March.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin looks at who might be the winners and losers in the tariffs Donald Trump is set to confirm, or at least announce, on Wednesday night.
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US stocks trade cautiously after Donald Trump sets a 25% tariff on car and car part imports. Gold hits a record high US$3,100/oz. Australia’s Federal Government borrowing task has jumped, and the People’s Bank of China turns dovish.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses why heavy equity outflows from Asian economies are likely to keep flowing after a swathe of US tariff announcements due on April 2.
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US stocks slide on fears Trump will announce car tariffs tonight. UK inflation falls unexpectedly. Australia’s inflation rate slips as Budget rebates are set to keep repressing headline CPI. And Indonesia’s currency is the lowest it’s been since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari tracks the fortunes of silver following record-setting price moves for gold.
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US consumer confidence slumps into recession territory, Australia’s Budget reveals a surprise tax cut, while future spending plans sit near expectations. Oil prices fall as Ukraine agrees a partial ceasefire.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny analyses how the Federal Open Markets Committee’s projections for the US GDP have changed, and how rising uncertainty is hitting the world’s largest economy.
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1US stocks rally on hopes Donald Trump will soften the blow of tariffs due next week. Flash PMIs for the US economy reassure. ANZ Research raises gold forecast to US$3,200 an ounce. And all eyes tonight are on Australia’s Federal Budget.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes reveals two vastly different approaches to slumps in cobalt and lithium prices.
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ANZ Research has lowered its US growth forecast, while also nudging its China GDP forecast higher. Donald Trump’s big tariff day on April 2 will be a key moment for global markets, and Japan’s inflation is rising nicely for more Bank of Japan rate hikes.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton previews tomorrow night’s Federal Budget.
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The Bank of England holds. New Trump sanctions on Iran pump up oil prices by 1.7%. Australia’s big jobs fall in February is not expected to force more RBA cuts, while New Zealand’s stronger Q4 growth shouldn’t stop RBNZ from cutting more.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell digs into what led to New Zealand’s faster-than-expected growth at the end of 2024.
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The Fed has just held US official interest rates, but has forecast slower growth and two more rate cuts. Traders pushed the US dollar and market interest rates down. Gold jumped to a new high. The Bank of Japan also holds, but is expected to keep hiking. Australian jobs data today is forecast to show more growth. NZ GDP is forecast to bounce.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen looks at Fiji’s growth outlook and considers what is needed to drive growth.
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US markets fall ahead of tomorrow morning’s rate decision by the FOMC. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates today, German policy makers get ready to take on more debt, and Australian consumers reveal their lowest confidence so far this year.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains what the Reserve Bank of Australia means when it says it will make ‘data dependent’ decisions.
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US retail sales are sluggish and dragging on US GDP growth. China’s economy outperforms expectations, so ANZ Research lifts its China GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. New Zealand’s housing market is stirring, but slowly.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing analyses China’s fiscal response to soften the economic impact of US tariffs.
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Gold finally jumps through US$3,000 an ounce. US consumer confidence about jobs and inflation slumps. New Zealand’s GDP data is expected to show growth returned in the December quarter. And the Fed is expected to hold later this week.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses how all the Trump tariff turmoil is affecting global markets and the US economy.
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US stocks slide again after a new Trump tariff threat. US inflation data was below forecasts. Migrant departures from New Zealand hit a record high, and Australian businesses didn’t get the same boost as consumers did from the RBA’s rate cut.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala analyses the impact on Australia from the Trump Administration’s new metals tariffs.
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US inflation is below forecasts. Donald Trump ‘un-doubles’ Canada tariffs, but sets global steel and aluminium ones. Japanese bond yields hit their highest since 2008, thanks to safe-haven demand. And New Zealand’s trucks got moving in February.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim looks at how India’s growth rate over the next year may come in below potential, opening room for rate cuts as annual inflation falls, as it did in February to a weaker-than-expected 3.6%.
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Donald Trump doubles Canadian steel and aluminium tariffs to 50%, slamming markets again. Australian consumer and business confidence fall a bit. Japan’s GDP is revised down, but strong wage growth is expected to keep the Bank of Japan hiking.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains why India’s inflation rate doesn’t look to be a problem for further policy easing.
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US stocks and US bond yields are down sharply this morning after Donald Trump accepted the US economy was slowing. Oil prices keep falling on global demand and supply fears. The euro is surging on hopes for bigger European investment spending.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the surprising performance of US shale oil producers and how they might respond to lower prices in a ‘drill, baby, drill’ era.
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Trump’s vacillations on tariffs is unsettling US market and economic confidence, although some think a ‘Trump Put’ will limit any fall in stock prices. Markets now expect more than three Fed rate cuts in 2025. China’s deflation deepens in February.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin takes a closer look at Germany’s plan to step off its ‘fiscal brake’.
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Trump delays tariffs on auto imports for a month and the ECB cuts rates. Australia’s exports to the US jump despite tariff uncertainty. Forecasts for New Zealand’s Q4 GDP may fall, and Malaysia holds rates.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the RBA’s February meeting minutes this week point to only one more rate cut this year.
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Oil hits a six-month low and the US dollar drops 1% on fears trade wars will lower global growth. Private spending helps Australian GDP grow 0.6% in Q4. China sets a new growth target of 5%, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Governor resigns.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at whether the GDP growth Australia experienced at the end of 2024 can be sustained through 2025.
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Global stocks and bond yields fall sharply again after the United States imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, who retaliate with moves of their own. Australia’s Q4 GDP is set for an export boost, while green shoots emerge in New Zealand’s housing market.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines what to expect from China’s National People’s Congress this week.
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US markets fall on fears about Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are due to kick today unless he changes his mind. Australia’s business indicators in Q4 beat expectations, as did a survey of China manufacturing in February. New Zealand exports jump in Q4.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani crunches the numbers on how much inflation might flow through to US consumers from Trump’s tariffs.
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Global markets take the White House clash in their stride. Tariff deadlines are more in focus, boosting the US dollar, in particular vs the Canadian dollar. Australian lending growth softens, and New Zealand consumer confidence remains subdued.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell analyses how New Zealand’s housing market has started 2025.
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The US dollar jumps after Trump says 25% tariffs will hit Canadian and Mexican imports from next Tuesday. New Zealand business confidence nudges up as interest rates fall, and weaker Australian capital expenditure may lower Q4 GDP forecasts.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at how much the RBA’s rate cut last week might feed through to Australia’s housing market this year.
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The US dollar stabilises with US bond yields after a surprise drop. Australian inflation is thrown around as electricity rebates roll off, while construction work shows hints of weakness. And Thailand cuts rates unexpectedly, with more cuts likely to come.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s International Economist Kishti Sen considers the outlook for Pacific island currencies amid global trade wars.
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Sliding US consumer confidence hammers US Treasury bond yields down to their lowest levels since December. Australia’s January CPI today could give clues on more RBA rate cuts. Australian consumer confidence jumps after the RBA’s cut this month.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the prospects of OPEC going through with stated plans to reverse production cuts made back during Covid in 2020 and 2021.
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Markets react cautiously to Germany’s new Government. The US economy is softening because of tariff uncertainty. China’s central bank is using off balance sheet tools to intervene in markets, and New Zealand’s retail sector has perked up.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Asia, Sanjay Mathur, has taken a closer look at the importance of household consumption in Asia’s economies, especially in the face of tariff headwinds to their exports .
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All eyes this week are on the latest tariffs drama and German election results, but in Australia, fresh inflation data will be in focus after the RBA’s rate cut. The US dollar stabilises. Japan’s inflation is strong, and New Zealand posts a trade surplus.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at two key issues in geopolitics: whether Trump’s tariffs create inflation, and how the war in Ukraine might be resolved amid elections in Germany.
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Global stocks are down after a Walmart warning. Australia’s jobless rate ticks up, but jobs also surge, so the RBA says it’s hard to see bad news in the data. And China holds its key rates, keeping its powder dry so it can cut when the US trade war hits.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou sorted through more than 10,000 product classifications to find out how the 10% tariffs being placed on China by the US would affect trade.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts 50 basis points and signals more to come. Australia’s wage growth is lighter than expected, which is good news for the RBA ahead of January jobs figures today. They are set to show a solid labour market.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk highlights how housing markets in Australia’s capital cities struggled ahead of the RBA’s rate cut.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts hawkishly, warning of uncertainties around the labour market. The question now is whether it will cut again this year. And Australian consumers lost a bit of confidence ahead of the cut.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner analyses the picture the Reserve Bank of New Zealand faces today as it decides how much to cut rates.
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European stocks hit record highs and bond yields rise as higher defence spending is priced-in amid Ukraine peace talks. Japan’s economy hits its growth stride, and high dairy prices and a low Kiwi dollar are combining to support New Zealand’s economy.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist
Adelaide Timbrell
explains why the improving inflation outlook has given the Reserve Bank of Australia the room to cut 25 basis points to 4.1% later today, and then once more in August.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to finally cut rates this week. However, the Aussie dollar is firmer this morning and may rise more as global markets take some of the Trump tariff premium out of the US dollar.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist
Adelaide Timbrell
explains why ANZ Research has increased its growth forecast for this year to 2.4% from 2.2%.
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Donald Trump is set to announce global reciprocal tariffs today, but US stocks rose and US Treasury yields and the dollar fell on hopes delays could reduce the inflation hit. Japan’s rising producer prices support another BoJ hike. And the Philippines’ central bank unexpectedly holds rates.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains the importance of New Zealand’s closely watched inflation expectations survey, ahead of next week’s live rates decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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US stocks and rate cut expectations retreat as January inflation comes in hotter than expected - just one rate cut is now priced for this year; And New Zealand trucks got moving last month, but a full recovery in economic activity is yet to take hold.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan reviews which Asian economies are most at risk from US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff proclamations.
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Markets are focused on cautious comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about more rate cuts. Australia’s large and growing US trade deficit could spare it from metals tariffs. Australian consumer confidence in the here-and-now is at its lowest since September.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks into the prospects of gold going through the $3,000 an ounce mark.
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US markets react positively to President Trump’s latest steel and aluminium tariff announcement, but uncertainty remains. Gold hit a new record high overnight. The British Pound continues to weaken following the Bank of England’s rate cut last week.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes unpacks the implications of Trump’s tariffs on aluminium and steel, if enacted, and who might be the winners and losers.
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US consumers increasingly fear Donald Trump’s tariffs will drive up inflation, which worried US markets on Friday. Trump reverses a plan to put tariffs on parcel imports. The Reserve Bank of India cuts rates. And China’s CPI inflation blipped up in January.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton finds some surprising strength in private sector job creation.
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Markets are mixed amid conflicting signals on Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Bank of England cuts dovishly, driving the pound lower. Australia’s trade surplus normalises in December, and Vietnam’s inflation was surprisingly strong.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses the risks to Fiji’s trade from a tariff-imposing White House.
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Gold hits a new record high as the US 10 year yield falls to its lowest point this year.; China holds the Yuan strongly amid depreciation pressure; and New Zealand’s job market loosens enough to green-light the RBNZ to cut 50 basis points this month.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains what’s behind the surge in gold prices to record highs and a 5% fall in oil prices since Trump’s inauguration.
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Mexico and Canada get a one month reprieve from Donald Trump’s 15% across-the-board tariffs and China is in talks for a similar reprieve. China’s response yesterday was also limited, which markets welcomed overnight.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Economist Henry Russell says ANZ’s Business Outlook survey indicates New Zealand’s economy turned a corner at the end of 2024.
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Mexico secures a one-month reprieve from tariffs by agreeing to send troops to the US border. All eyes are now on a call this morning between President Trump and Canadian PM Trudeau; Gold and the US dollar rise amid the see-sawing uncertainty.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh talks about how Trump’s tariffs are likely to drive the yuan and other Asian currencies around, with tomorrow’s fix of the Chinese currency by the People’s Bank of China being a key moment.
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Markets will open this morning for the first time after Donald Trump unleashed 25% tariffs across the board on imports from Canada and Mexico on Sunday. Stocks, bond yields and non-US currencies are expected to slide as investors seek safe havens.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin analyses the detail of Trump’s historic actions and the implications for global trade, output and inflation.
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Markets are coping this morning with the world’s two biggest central banks taking interest rates in different directions, with the Fed holding yesterday and in no hurry to cut again, while the ECB cut overnight with more to come.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch digs into the detail behind Australia’s falling inflation rate and why ANZ Research is expecting a rate cut in February.
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nice source of info