"Moment of Zen"

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja explore cities as civilization's most enduring institutions, examining their political dynamics, technological evolution, and role as interfaces between competing social forces and power structures. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: ⁠https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/⁠ Live Players: ⁠https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers⁠ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠ -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- Key Highlights Core Thesis: Cities are humanity's most enduring institutions (5,000+ years), persisting through complete civilizational changes due to human co-location needs Political Dynamics: Cities vote left due to visible inequality and Democratic urban optimization Republicans lack compelling urban vision beyond deregulation Prediction: DC will become America's dominant city like Moscow or Paris Digital-Physical Connection: Social media platforms remain tied to specific cities (Twitter/SF, Instagram/LA) Physical proximity still creates career advantages despite digital connectivity Reform Strategies: Moving coordinated voter blocs more effective than building charter cities Charter cities work best in high-growth regions (Africa, Central America) Current cities technologically obsolete - not optimized for autonomous vehicles Need for "Refounding": Cities require complete institutional overhaul rather than incremental reform Political and cultural change must originate in cities, not countryside

Today on Moment of Zen, we're excited to cross post a conversation from the newly revamped a16z podcast featuring Antonio Garcia Martinez and MSNBC's Chris Hayes exploring how AI-generated content is reshaping the attention economy, from algorithmic manipulation to the future of human creativity in digital spaces. Listen to more episodes of The a16z Podcast here: link.chtbl.com/blpusvv- -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠ -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @chrislhayes @antoniogm @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- Key Highlights AI "Slop" Problem: Discussion of how AI-generated content could overwhelm social platforms with low-quality material, similar to email spam but at unprecedented scale Attention vs. Intent Gap: The fundamental tension between what captures our attention algorithmically versus what we actually want to consume Brand Advertising Paradox: Why major advertisers (Ford, Progressive) still avoid platforms like TikTok despite massive young audiences, suggesting ad tech limitations Cultural Homogenization: How algorithmic feeds are creating identical subcultures across geographic boundaries while fragmenting shared national experiences Group Chat Migration: The shift from public posting to private messaging as people seek authentic community away from performative social media Future Interface Prediction: AI chatbots becoming the primary way we interact with digital services, replacing traditional apps and websites Technology vs. Utility: The disconnect between what's profitable (attention-grabbing tech) versus what's genuinely useful (like solar power), and its implications for innovation priorities

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja explore how China's elite universities are creating a ruling class similar to America's, with student activism and credentialism reshaping both nations' power structures. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: ⁠https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/⁠ Live Players: ⁠https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers⁠ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠ -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- Key Highlights Core Thesis: Elite Convergence China and America are creating remarkably similar ruling classes despite being geopolitical rivals with different political systems Universities are the primary mechanism driving this convergence in both countries China's Leadership Evolution Historic shift: For the first time, Chinese leaders are educated in China's own elite universities (Peking, Tsinghua, etc.) rather than abroad or through practical experience From engineers to lawyers: China moving from technocrats with engineering backgrounds to university-credentialed elites Signaling theory: Chinese elite universities now function like Harvard/MIT as intelligence signals "Chinese Woke" vs Western Woke China already has student activism - but it's Marxist/Maoist students organizing workers' unions Ideological trap: Communist Party struggles because students use party ideology to critique the party itself Future prediction: Chinese "woke" will likely focus on gender/feminism rather than racial/ethnic issues due to China's homogeneity University Power Dynamics Zero-sum tournament: Universities create gatekeeping for elite positions in both countries Elite clubs, not education: Universities function more as exclusive clubs than learning institutions Defensibility: University power will be extremely difficult to dislodge without radical intervention Consequences for China Positives: Better rule of law, higher status for journalists/lawyers, more humanistic perspective Negatives: Loss of business acumen, reduced technical expertise, potential future incompetence as credentials replace competence Mirror Society Concept Both nations face similar paradoxes: Ideological foundations that create unresolvable contradictions Generational warfare: Young elites using ideology to displace older generations in both systems Talent retention: China increasingly keeping its best students domestically rather than sending them to American universities Long-term Prediction China's government may become incompetent as university credentials replace practical experience and technical knowledge

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja explore AI hardware dominance, US-China semiconductor competition, automation's economic impacts, and strategic industrial policy for maintaining technological leadership. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: ⁠https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/⁠ Live Players: ⁠https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers⁠ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠ -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- Key Highlights Hardware as AI's Foundation Data collection (cameras, self-driving cars) and computation infrastructure are the two critical hardware pillars driving AI advancement Physical proximity between chip designers, manufacturers, and users creates significant competitive advantages US-China Semiconductor Competition Export controls came too late and actually accelerated China's domestic chip development Taiwan's TSMC holds crucial position due to personal relationships (Jensen Huang-TSMC founder connection) China has skilled engineers who can optimize hardware locally, creating efficiency gains Proposed US Strategy Create special industrial zones (Bay Area or Texas) co-locating chip fabs, data centers, and AI labs Massive government investment ($500B-$1T) to build "America's TSMC" Talent acquisition focused on patriotic Americans rather than relying solely on foreign talent Start with defense contracts (NSA/CIA) to justify fully US-manufactured chips Automation's Political Risks Automating 50% of white-collar work = economic growth Automating 95% of white-collar work without physical automation = political disaster Displaced laptop class more dangerous than displaced blue-collar workers due to organizational capabilities Risk of expanded bureaucracy and protectionist policies Physical vs. Knowledge Work Knowledge work easier to automate (already digitized) Physical automation requires specialized companies for each domain (5+ years per application) Preference for specialized robotics over general humanoid robots to maintain employment transitions

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine Singapore's transformation from poor post-colonial state to wealthy financial hub through Lee Kuan Yew's strategic governance, geopolitical balancing, and prioritizing economic efficiency over individual freedoms. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: ⁠https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/⁠ Live Players: ⁠https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers⁠ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ⁠https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess⁠  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠ -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to ⁠https://choosesquad.com/⁠ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- Key Highlights Foundation & Strategy Lee Kuan Yew transformed Singapore from poor colony to wealthy financial hub through meritocratic governance Strategic location on Straits of Malacca controls vital trade routes to China Governance Model High government salaries prevent corruption and attract talent Prioritized economic growth over social benefits through "delayed gratification" City-state scale enables efficient planning and direct accountability Economic Evolution 1960s-90s: Industrial development Post-1990s: Tax haven and Asian financial center Current: Attracting foreign headquarters and wealthy immigrants Geopolitical Navigation Successfully balanced US-Soviet competition during Cold War Defeated internal communist movement in 1960s Now faces choice between US alliance vs Chinese economic integration Unique Features Harsh law enforcement (death penalty, caning) maintains order in dense city Land reclamation for expansion Investing in insect protein/vertical farming for food security Challenges Vulnerable to deglobalization as trade blocs form Lee family succession continues (hereditary leadership) Failed to solve demographic decline despite early efforts Lessons Scalable: Low corporate taxes, strong city governance, automation investment Non-scalable: Extreme efficiency pressure, geographic advantages, population density

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg talks with Samo Burja on "long history" - the thesis that human civilization is far older than believed, with complex societies predating agriculture by millennia. It examines why civilizations rise and fall, and implications for preventing our own collapse. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- Long History Thesis Human civilization is much older than believed - complex societies existed before agriculture Göbekli Tepe (11,500 years old) features monumental construction 1,000 years before earliest agriculture Academic consensus moves slowly; archaeologists find what they expect to find Why Civilizations Fall Pattern 1: Military overextension and fiscal collapse (like Soviet Union) Pattern 2: Complex trade network breakdown (Bronze Age collapse example) History isn't linear progress - it's cycles of rise, stagnation, and fall Modern Implications We may not reach the singularity - could face our own stagnation period Military overextension is a current US risk China and US are 80-90% similar despite perceived differences Preventing Collapse Diversify beyond university monoculture - generate more "live players" Invest in novel energy sources and government experimentation Address fertility crisis (affects all societies regardless of politics) Avoid rationalizing decline as environmental success Historical Lessons Ancient societies had sophisticated "social technologies" we've lost Study history for positive examples, not just cautionary tales Human nature and organizational capacity remain largely unexplored

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg talk with Samo Burja on nuclear weapons proliferation, energy geopolitics, and his "nuclear accelerationist" argument that widespread nuclear capability is inevitable, so countries should pursue abundant nuclear energy despite proliferation risks. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Core Argument: "Nuclear Accelerationism" Nuclear weapons proliferation is inevitable - the 80-year-old technology is only getting easier We're paying security costs without reaping energy benefits Should accelerate civilian nuclear development to achieve energy abundance North Korea precedent: Even poor, isolated countries can build nukes Japan example: Already has tons of plutonium, could build weapons in <1 year Proliferation ratchet: Countries rarely denuclearize once they acquire weapons National security incentives overwhelm nonproliferation efforts Nuclear club expansion: Countries with existing weapons should build thousands of reactors Energy exports: Non-nuclear countries buy electricity from nuclear neighbors Scale economics: Need massive reactor deployment for true cost advantages Incentive structure: Subsidize alternatives for countries that forgo nuclear tech Small arsenals (dozens of nukes) create different dynamics than superpower stockpiles (thousands) Current "doomsday machine" logic only applies to US/Russia/China Widespread small arsenals might actually reduce conventional war risk

Today on Moment of Zen, we're airing a conversation with economist Noah Smith and Substack CEO Chris Best discussing the evolving media landscape. They dive into whether Twitter's dominance is waning, what features a successor platform would need, and how artificial intelligence is set to transform media as we know it. This conversation originally took place live on Noah's Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- RELATED LINKS: Eugene Wei's Status as a Service: https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service Twitter, Threads, and Remote Work with Eugene Wei: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1zSxuEAgUUlptJHNEr2Q7O Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/twitter-threads-and-remote-work-with-eugene-wei/id1661672738?i=1000621483289 -- X / TWITTER: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Breaking News Platform Concept Noah proposed Substack could replace Twitter's former role as a breaking news hub by recruiting OSINT specialists and citizen journalists to create live blogs These would function as both real-time updates and daily digest newsletters, solving the chicken-and-egg problem of audience vs. content AI's Impact on Media AI will serve as a "force multiplier" for writers rather than replacing them entirely Key applications: summarization, curation, and search enhancement Writers may use AI teams to amplify their unique perspectives and research capabilities Platform Evolution Twitter's decline attributed to the shift from chronological to algorithmic feeds (pull to push media) The "age of Twitter" for breaking news lasted roughly 2011-2023 Substack currently excels at day-after analysis but lacks real-time news capabilities Geopolitical Concerns Noah expressed pessimism about US competitiveness against China due to population size (4x difference) Concerns about weakened alliance systems under recent US foreign policy Worries about falling behind in electric/battery technology due to policy and cultural resistance Content Abundance Problem Both noted the challenge of infinite content creation vs. scarce attention Emphasized importance of choosing content that shapes who you become, not just what you want right now

Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg examine how dynastic succession can outperform meritocratic systems. The discussion analyzes successful family-controlled enterprises like the New York Times, Samsung, and Sweden's Wallenberg companies, arguing that hereditary structures can often solve succession problems more effectively than rational selection mechanisms. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith debunk the myth that globalization destroyed America's middle class, showing wages actually grew during hyperglobalization. It examines the limited "China shock" impact and critiques how both political tribes' technology fears may handicap America's competitiveness against China. -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Main Argument Myth: Globalization hollowed out America's middle class Reality: Middle class moved UP income brackets; wages grew 40% during peak globalization Real Causes 1973 oil shock caused wage stagnation (70s-80s), not globalization China shock (2000s): Only 2M manufacturing jobs lost, limited scope America vs. China US: Less globalized than most countries; only 4% manufacturing trade deficit China: Cities will look shabby in 30 years; exports falling as % of GDP Political Technology Paralysis Republicans: Fear hardware (solar, batteries, EVs) Progressives: Fear software (AI, social media) Both sides handicapping American tech leadership while China advances

Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine "failed" industrial revolutions throughout history, particularly Rome's sophisticated water-powered manufacturing, standardized production, and steam engine prototypes. The discussion explores how civilizations like Rome and Song Dynasty China achieved industrial-scale commerce and technology before ultimately plateauing or collapsing due to demographic, military, or economic constraints. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Roman Industrial Capabilities: Extensive use of water power for mills, ironworks, marble cutting, and mining Mass production of pottery (53 million amphora estimated from one Roman hill) Standardized parts for statues, military equipment, and containers Advanced metallurgy producing air pollution detectable in Greenland ice cores Technological Sophistication: Hero of Alexandria created functional steam engines as early experiments Romans used coal for heating and had portable fire pumps Nanotechnology in glassware (Lycurgus Cup with gold/silver particles) Complex mechanical devices and automated systems Economic Scale: Billion+ amphora production across the empire Sophisticated consumer economy with middle class purchasing power Standardized commerce and shipping networks across Mediterranean Industrial-scale mining that reshaped entire landscapes Why They "Failed": Population decline removed growth incentive Military pressures from external forces Reached saturation point where demand was met Industrial revolutions follow S-curves that plateau without continued expansion Broader Pattern: Song Dynasty China faced similar trajectory before nomadic conquests Large-scale commerce and state demand were prerequisites Water transportation networks enabled industrial development All required demographic/geographic growth to sustain technological advancement

Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja back in January 2024 on Japan's existential demographic crisis, analyzing how collapsing fertility rates and population aging threaten the nation's economic and geopolitical future. The discussion explores cultural barriers to family formation, automation limitations, and Japan's dilemma between preserving identity versus accepting transformative change. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Demographic Crisis Fertility rate collapsed to 1.3 - population shrinking from 125M to 50M this century Aging dependency ratio crushing economy - fewer workers supporting more elderly Young people may emigrate if decline accelerates Cultural Challenges Work vs. family contradiction - salaryman culture prioritizes career over children Proposed solution: Require executives to have 2+ kids 97% ethnic homogeneity creates social cohesion but limits immigration options Economic Implications Automation needs scale - fewer people makes it less effective Japan's productivity gains vanish when controlling for aging Risk of economic tailspin and brain drain Military Transformation From pacifist to military power - world-class navy, converting carriers for F-35Bs Nuclear weapons ready - space program + plutonium = "some assembly required" Key player in Taiwan scenarios Geopolitical Positioning Economically tied to China, security-wise allied with US Will stay politically independent from China due to nationalism Would go nuclear if US withdraws from East Asia Japan must choose: Maintain cultural identity and accept economic decline, or transform through immigration to stay economically viable. Currently choosing the former while hoping automation saves them.

Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja about the intricate historical, military, and cultural dimensions of the India-Pakistan conflict, and how these nuclear neighbors navigate their complex relationship. This podcast originally aired on the Village Global podcast. Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- RECOMMENDED LINK/S: India: Live Players Analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GbsYh2kx7Y  -- Follow on X: @samoburja@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia -- KEY HIGHLIGHTS Conflict stems from unresolved partition issues dividing predominantly Muslim and Hindu regions India's large Muslim population (200-300 million) creates internal stability concerns during potential conflicts Pakistan relies heavily on its military for national cohesion despite ethnic diversity Both nations possess modern military capabilities including nuclear weapons (170-200 warheads each) Nuclear conflict would likely only occur if Pakistan's government faced collapse or if India pursued regime change A nuclear war could cause millions of deaths and create 30-50 million refugees China maintains ties with Pakistan and has its own territorial disputes with India Likely future: continued sporadic fighting followed by ceasefires rather than full-scale war Pakistan's legitimacy relies on opposing India; India sees Pakistan as obstacle to global influence Unlike Israel-Palestine, this conflict could theoretically be resolved without existential questions India's optimal strategy: economically outgrow Pakistan while maintaining internal security

Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation  about defense innovation bureaucracy reform recorded at this week's Hill & Valley Forum in Washington D.C.  In this session, Palantir, CTO Sha Sankar and Senator Mike Lee dissect America's defense innovation paralysis. They articulate how bureaucratic accretion stifles the necessary competition and "heretical" personalities historically driving breakthroughs. Their prescription: regulatory reset via the REINS Act, competing procurement programs, and empowering maverick leaders—essential counters to China's accelerating AI capabilities. If you're interested to hear all the talks from the forum, please subscribe to The Hill & Valley Forum Podcast: ⁠YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum⁩⁠ Apple:⁠ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley-forum-podcast/id1692653857⁠ Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi⁠ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠ -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠https://adquick.com/⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- Follow on X: @SenMikeLee (Senator Mike Lee) @friedberg (Shyam Sankar) @cgarrett_15 (Christian Garrett) @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- KEY HIGHLIGHTS: Defense innovation has stalled by prioritizing process over people and rigidly following bureaucratic procedures Competition between services and programs historically drove breakthroughs but has been lost America needs more "heretical" founder-type leaders within defense The REINS Act could restore constitutional order by requiring Congress to approve regulations Bureaucratic reform is essential to compete with China in the AI arms race

Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation about rebuilding American manufacturing recorded at this week's Hill & Valley Forum in Washington D.C. Senator Todd Young is joined by Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia, and David Friedberg the CEO of Ohalo to discuss the massive energy gap with China, how to reform education for industrial jobs, and where strategic innovation could help the US regain its competitive edge. If you're interested to hear all the talks from the forum, please subscribe to The Hill & Valley Forum Podcast: ⁠YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum⁩⁠ Apple:⁠ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley-forum-podcast/id1692653857⁠ Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi⁠ -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at ⁠https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse⁠ -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at ⁠https://netsuite.com/zen⁠. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠https://adquick.com/⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- Follow on X: @SenToddYoung (Senator Todd Young) @friedberg (David Friedberg) @shaunmmaguire (Shaun Maguire) @cgarrett_15 (Christian Garrett) @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Preview (00:57) Introduction to the panel on rebuilding American manufacturing (01:25) Panel discussion begins on industrial strength in America (02:29) Shaun Maguire on creating national champions to rebuild supply chains (04:43) Senator Young on government's role in reshoring critical technologies (08:00) David Friedberg on energy and education as baseline problems (14:35) Sponsors: Netsuite | Shopify (17:05) Discussion on nuclear energy policy and regulatory reform (20:00) Role of automation in American manufacturing revival (22:48) Debate on friend-shoring versus onshoring manufacturing (27:48) Magic wand policy changes to bring back manufacturing (30:56) Sponsors: AdQuick | Squad (32:53) Outro

Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation from the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum with the founders of Scale AI, Anthropic, and AI Fund on the urgent race between the U.S. and China in AI innovation. Moderated by Senator Cory Booker and featuring Alexandr Wang, Jack Clark, and Andrew Eng, the panel covers why American AI leadership is at risk, and how smarter policy and faster deployment are critical to maintaining a competitive edge. (Note: that this conversation took place before the DeepSeek breakthrough.) Keep an eye out for the 2025 Hill and Valley Forum on Wednesday, April 30 — and subscribe to the Hill & Valley podcast in the episode description to listen to every panel. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley/id1692653857 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen. Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen. The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. -- X / TWITTER: @CoryBooker @AndrewYNg @alexandr_wang@jackclarkSF @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: US-China AI competition: The panelists strongly disagree with the Rand Corporation's assessment that China won't produce major AI advances Jack Clark emphasized that underestimating China's creativity would be "chronically stupid" Alex Wang noted Chinese companies have built some of the best open-source AI models in the world Regulation approach: The panelists generally advocated for minimal regulation that doesn't stifle innovation Andrew Ng compared AI to electricity (not a "dual-use" but "multi-use" technology) that shouldn't be over-regulated The panel suggested regulating specific applications rather than the foundational technology National security concerns: Alex Wang expressed that the US Department of Defense is using AI too slowly compared to adversaries The panelists identified bureaucracy as a major obstacle to the US military adopting AI quickly enough They described a "triple whammy" situation: rapidly advancing technology, increasing global conflicts, and risk-seeking leadership in rival nations Infrastructure needs: Jack Clark advocated for US investment in computing infrastructure to maintain leadership He mentioned permit reform as surprisingly crucial for AI advancement to build data centers The panel discussed the need for the US to compete with Middle Eastern countries' massive AI investments Future vision (2055): Jack Clark: Everyone will have customized education and tutoring Alex Wang: Scientific breakthroughs will make sci-fi futures a reality Andrew Ng: Intelligence will become cheap and accessible to everyone, not just the wealthy

Today's episode is a conversation I had with Samo Burja in 2019 about why civilizations collapse, how functional institutions are built, and what makes some societies flourish while others decay. We explore his Great Founder Theory, the myth of egalitarianism, and why exceptional outliers drive innovation more than democratic processes.This podcast originally aired on the Village Global podcast.Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers --📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse --RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad SmithJoin Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYgApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165--SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | BREX | INCOGNIOver 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment--RECOMMENDED LINKS:Functional Institutions are the Exceptionhttps://www.samoburja.com/functional-institutions-are-the-exception/Intellectual Dark Matterhttps://samoburja.com/intellectual-dark-matter/--X / TWITTER:@SamoBurja@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Societies are artificial constructs built on cornerstone institutions and knowledge that require intentional renewal Great Founder Theory: exceptional individuals like Steve Jobs create transformative changes that shape institutions Singapore as an example of successful governance through visionary leadership and long-term thinking Egalitarianism often functions as a control mechanism rather than a practical reality Technology inherently drives centralization despite temporary decentralization phases Future global order likely to be bipolar between US (innovation advantage) and China (different values) Successful institutions require adaptability to changing circumstances

In this episode of Moment of Zen, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his new book "Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious," making the case that institutional religion is not just socially beneficial but intellectually defensible. They discuss the decline of New Atheism, the tension between traditional Christianity and Silicon Valley's techno-optimism within the "New Right" coalition, and whether AI consciousness points to something beyond materialism.--📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse --RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad SmithJoin Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYgApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165--SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | BREX | INCOGNIOver 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment--LINKS:Ross Douthat: https://www.nytimes.com/column/ross-douthatBelieve: Why Everyone Should Be Religious: https://www.zondervan.com/p/believe/X / TWITTER:@DouthatNYT@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Ross explains we're at a cultural inflection point where secularization has plateaued and there's evidence of religious revival. New atheism has declined as the world hasn't become more reasonable despite becoming less religious. Ross argues religion is intellectually defensible based on fine-tuning of the universe and the hard problem of consciousness. He contends that merely appreciating religion's social benefits isn't enough—genuine belief is necessary. The AI discussion explores whether consciousness might exist beyond materialist explanations. They examine tensions in the "New Right" between tech-optimists and religious traditionalists.

Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine India's trajectory as the world's most populous nation, tackling India's surprising demographic decline, delayed industrialization due to bureaucratic inefficiency, and complex relations with China and Pakistan. They explore Modi's nationalist approach, India's digital potential, and how institutional barriers might limit India's rise in a multipolar world order.Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers --📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse --RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad SmithJoin Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYgApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165--SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | BREX | INCOGNIOver 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment--X / TWITTER:@SamoBurja@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Demographics: India has surpassed China in population but faces rapid aging with fertility rates already below replacement level. Economic Development: Industrialization likely within 50 years, not 10; constrained by bureaucracy and regulation rather than demographics. Reform Needs: Requires anti-corruption efforts, reduced bureaucracy, special economic zones, and infrastructure development. Geopolitics: Complicated relationships with China (border disputes) and the West; Samo suggests India should be more self-interested in international relations. Modi's Impact: Promotes nationalism but hasn't effectively addressed bureaucratic problems. Digital Potential: Has talent for creating domestic tech giants with proper digital protectionism. Warning: Must avoid nuclear conflict with Pakistan.

Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja dive deep into how Xi Jinping is shaping China's society today and its place in the world. They discuss Xi’s firm hold on power, his connections with different political groups, and how his decisions are affecting China's economy, military, and politics.Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one: Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers —📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse --RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad SmithJoin Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYgApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165--SPONSORS: BREX | NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment--X / TWITTER:@SamoBurja@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia-- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION: Consolidated unprecedented power through anti-corruption campaigns Dismantled previous oligarchic system but created succession crisis Maintains Marxist ideology while managing slowing economic growth Limits wealth influence and civil society (Jack Ma case) Reframes economic challenges as equality/environmental successes Belt and Road Initiative less impactful than expected Scientific innovation hindered by political conformity Future paths: South Korea-style model or renewed socialist focus Demographic challenges may limit long-term economic/military power