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The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
Author: The Bahnsen Group
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The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47xUXzF
David Bahnsen hosts this week’s Dividend Cafe, briefly noting ongoing Iran-related market volatility but avoiding a third straight week of geopolitical speculation, criticizing market pundits for pseudo-military commentary. He instead addresses private credit, arguing mainstream narratives wrongly conflate liquidity/redemption features with claims of current, broad credit distress. He says reported loan issues are being overstated, noting a $600 million sale from a multi-billion-dollar portfolio cleared at 99.7% of par, and that future defaults—if they rise—won’t be monolithic and require manager-, collateral-, and portfolio-level nuance. He outlines five points: avoid simplistic AI/software assumptions; recent loan sales were near par; losses fall on investors, not banks, making risk non-systemic; a washout of weak managers can strengthen capital allocation; and investors should distinguish good vs bad and aligned vs non-aligned managers. He adds software loan yields rose while total loan yields are lower than a year to 18 months ago.
00:00 Welcome and Market Volatility
00:42 Why Not Iran Again
02:51 Private Credit Enters Spotlight
03:25 Defaults vs Liquidity Confusion
04:57 What the Facts Show
06:11 AI Software Loan Hype
07:06 Five Key Takeaways
08:56 Systemic Risk Myth
10:20 Alignment Matters Most
11:28 Chatter vs Reality
12:37 Chart and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Brian Szytel recaps a volatile, mostly down trading day with a late rally that still ended negative, warning against trying to time markets off Middle East headlines as volatility persists absent de-escalation. He notes Brent spiked to 111 then closed near 107 and WTI around 95–96 amid strikes affecting global LNG and energy infrastructure, and argues oil over 100 can shave GDP over time; markets appear priced for tensions to abate, with repricing risk if the conflict drags on. Offsetting positives include $160B in Q1 tax refunds (up 14% YoY), a shift from QT to balance-sheet expansion, GSE mortgage purchases, and financial deregulation reducing bank reserve requirements. He explains Strait of Hormuz risk (20% of global supply) drives prices, with speculation playing a role; the U.S. still imports ~35% of consumption. Data: jobless claims 205 vs 215, Philly Fed beat, wholesale inventories -0.5%, new home sales 587 vs 719.
00:00 Market Volatility Recap
00:55 Oil Shock and GDP Drag
01:43 Tailwinds Stimulus
03:12 Timing the Crosscurrents
04:14 Hormuz and Price Mechanics
05:18 US Imports and Refinery Reality
05:53 Economic Data Scorecard
06:36 Close and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Brian Szytel reports modestly positive markets from The Bahnsen Group’s Newport Beach office: the Dow rose 46 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.25%, the Nasdaq rose nearly 0.5%, and the 10-year yield fell 2 bps to 4.20% after trading in a 4.15%–4.30% range. Economic data were light, with February pending home sales notably stronger than expected, possibly reflecting slightly lower mortgage rates and pent-up demand. He previews upcoming PPI data and the Fed’s meeting conclusion, expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, while watching potential dot-plot changes amid new geopolitical developments. He addresses three market concerns—war with Iran, private credit default fears, and slowing AI capex—and explains fiduciary duty versus broker suitability standards.
00:00 Market Close Recap
00:41 Housing Data Snapshot
01:15 Fed Meeting Preview
01:39 Three Market Worries
01:56 Iran War Pricing
02:49 Private Credit Fears
03:51 AI Capex Reality Check
04:27 What Fiduciary Means
05:19 Wrap Up and Tomorrow
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lFUmle
The episode recaps a broadly positive market day with the Dow up 388 points and all 11 sectors higher as tech and consumer discretionary led, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.22%. It notes that 43% of S&P 500 companies hit a 20-day low amid war-driven volatility, highlights extreme index concentration that could worsen if major private firms go public, and questions default fears given high-yield spreads near 3.17%. On Iran, the U.S. conducted targeted strikes while leaving energy infrastructure intact, and the Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk as oil closed above $94, with China potentially involved in reopening efforts and a Trump–Xi meeting delayed. Economic updates include Q4 real GDP revised down to 0.7%, flat durable goods orders, modest industrial production growth, and expectations that major central banks hold rates while guidance drives markets.
00:00 Welcome and Resources
00:47 Market Rally Recap
02:35 Index Concentration Risks
03:33 Private Credit Reality Check
04:42 Iran Strikes and Strait Risk
07:03 GDP Revision and Growth Drivers
08:14 Consumer and Industry Signals
09:35 Central Banks and Energy Outlook
10:52 Week Ahead and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40tWZg8
David Bahnsen reviews an eventful mid-March 2026 market backdrop through five themes: the Iran war and its impact on oil and volatility; the state of the economy after tariff changes; private credit; AI; and a rotation in market leadership. He notes large daily market swings driven by uncertainty, but limited net movement, and argues volatility is largely immaterial for disciplined investors. The key economic risk is disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as insurers and shippers avoid the waterway, lifting oil from the low 80s toward the 90s and potentially above 100, which would meaningfully compress consumer and investment activity if sustained. He sees evidence of economic drag (weaker GDP revisions, modest job growth) alongside tariff-driven goods inflation offsetting services disinflation. He criticizes conflating private-credit default fears with liquidity issues and stresses idiosyncratic underwriting, recovery rates, and coming opportunity. He attributes AI weakness to valuation and fatigue while warning against treating the theme as monolithic. He highlights a rotation toward energy, utilities, staples, and industrials.
00:00 Friday Dividend Cafe Intro
01:07 Five Big Market Themes
02:25 Iran War and Volatility
04:19 Oil Shock and Strait Risk
07:45 Economy After Tariffs
10:02 Private Credit Fears
12:40 AI Valuations and Fatigue
14:34 Market Rotation Winners
15:27 Chart of the Week and Wrap
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
On March 11 from West Palm Beach, Brian Szytel reports a mostly negative but relatively benign market day amid volatility tied to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and surging energy prices (Brent ~$92.77, WTI ~$88.29). February CPI came in as expected: headline +0.3% and core +0.2%, with year-over-year headline 2.4% and core 2.5%; he notes current oil moves could have lifted year-over-year inflation to ~2.8–2.9%, though de-escalation or large IEA releases could offset. He highlights shelter’s lagging but cooling impact (rent measures up just 0.1–0.2%), important given shelter’s 35% CPI weight versus energy’s 7%. He discusses a new Fed chair in May aiming to cut short rates while shrinking the balance sheet, arguing productivity gains from AI and weaker labor data support easing. He also answers that TBG charges no extra external fees for alternative funds beyond internal fund expenses.
00:00 Market Recap and Volatility
00:44 Energy Prices and CPI Print
01:30 Oil Shock Scenarios and Offsets
02:34 Shelter Inflation Finally Cools
03:35 New Fed Chair and Rate Path
05:00 Alternative Funds Fees Explained
06:35 Wrap Up and Next Update
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Brian Szytel from Dividend Cafe (Tuesday, March 10) recaps a mixed market day that started higher on optimism from comments that the war would end soon, then faded to flat after reports of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz amid intensified Middle East conflict. He notes modest economic releases: the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 98.8 (near historical average) and February existing home sales above expectations at over 4 million, suggesting some housing thaw as rates ease. He explains the Strait’s global importance (about 20% of oil/LNG and 30% of helium) and estimates a ~0.4% GDP impact if disruptions persist, contributing to higher long rates and a steepening yield curve. He advises against timing volatility and discusses defense contractors, emphasizing fundamentals and the ability of large firms to develop or acquire new technologies.
00:00 Market Open And Headlines
00:48 Economic Data Check In
01:27 Strait Of Hormuz Stakes
02:18 Rates And Yield Curve
02:51 Staying Invested Through Volatility
03:19 Defense Stocks And Cheap Weapons
04:50 How We Invest In Defense
05:16 Wrap Up And Q And A
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lfOy1s
The episode reviews continued heightened, two-way intraday market volatility tied to the Iran military operation, highlighted by a Dow swing from sharply down to closing up over 200 points and oil’s brief spike near $115 before falling back to about $83–$84 after comments that the war may be nearly over. David argues these violent moves reflect short-term trading, hedging, and speculation, and advises long-term investors to avoid reacting. He notes the 10-year yield fell to about 4.1%, technology led while financials lagged, and last week’s index declines were modest despite some weak breadth. He discusses oil and VIX backwardation, shipping/insurance uncertainties in the Strait, debate over targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, and risks of bad policy if oil rises. Bahnsen also cites a “horrific” jobs report with unemployment at 4.4% and significant job losses and revisions, and previews CPI Wednesday.
00:00 Volatility Backdrop
00:54 Wild Market Reversal
01:47 Oil Spike Explained
04:10 Ignore The Noise
04:31 Rates Sectors Breadth
06:18 Backwardation Signals
07:42 War Timeline Shipping
09:57 Policy Risks Oil
10:42 Jobs Report Shock
12:33 Energy CPI Outlook
13:35 Wrap Up Stand Pat
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46HCMXH
From Nashville, Dividend Cafe host David Bahnsen discusses investor implications of the U.S. military operation that began in Iran, emphasizing the discomfort of analyzing markets amid potential casualties. He notes the Dow is down about 3% on the week but highlights extreme intraday volatility as a sign of uncertainty rather than news-driven moves. Bahnsen argues the key market driver is oil: WTI has surged into the 90s, up over 32% in a week, while futures show backwardation implying a temporary shock. He cites knock-on effects including higher shipping costs, sidelined container ships in the Persian Gulf, and aluminum at four-year highs. Political ramifications could affect markets via midterm outcomes. He advises investors not to change asset allocation or trade the “fog of war,” expecting volatility to persist while focusing on long-term dividend compounding.
00:00 Welcome From Nashville
01:01 War And Investor Lens
02:54 Market Drop Versus Volatility
06:45 Fog Of War Uncertainty
09:24 Oil Shock And Backwardation
11:26 Shipping Metals And Gas
15:09 Political Ripple Effects
18:16 What Investors Should Do
20:04 Closing Thoughts And Prayer
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Brian Szytel recaps a volatile market day with a broad selloff: the Dow fell 784 points after being down over 1,100 intraday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined modestly, with tech relatively stronger on AI-related earnings. Despite headlines tied to Iran, he notes markets are only slightly down overall and still focused on positive economic fundamentals. He highlights supportive data: initial jobless claims met expectations at 213, import prices rose less than expected, and productivity surged to 2.8% versus 1.8% expected (with prior quarter revised higher), though labor costs also rose 2.8%. He discusses whether AI may be contributing to productivity gains but wants more quarters of evidence. Addressing questions about Iran and U.S. debt, he contrasts it with Afghanistan’s 20-year, $2T ground war, emphasizes oil risk via the Strait of Hormuz, and says dollar impact depends on unknowns.
00:00 Market Volatility Recap
01:05 Staying Invested Amid Geopolitics
01:21 Economic Data Three Signals
01:54 AI And Productivity Debate
03:16 Client Question War And Debt
03:37 Afghanistan Comparison Costs
04:19 Oil Shock And Dollar Impact
05:17 Closing Thoughts And Thanks
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Brian Szytel recaps a rebound day in markets with broad gains (Dow +238, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.3%) amid headline-driven volatility tied to Iran and renewed tariff discussion. He notes Secretary Bessent’s comments on Section 122 potentially moving tariffs from 10% to 15%, which would still mean $65–$70B less in taxes than under IEPA, helping especially smaller and mid-sized businesses. Key market watchpoints are oil and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and bond yields, which rose with higher energy and inflation expectations rather than signaling a flight to safety; the 10-year is around 4.07%. He reiterates a midterm outlook of Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate. Economic data were strong, led by ISM services at 56.1, alongside services PMI at 51.7 and ADP private payrolls at 63K. He also addresses software stocks, viewing AI-driven selloffs as selective opportunity with potential margin benefits.
00:00 Market Rebound Recap
00:42 Tariffs Back in Focus
01:45 Iran Risks and Oil
02:41 Volatility and Bond Yields
03:49 Midterm Politics Update
04:27 Economic Data Rundown
05:33 AI and Software Stocks
06:47 Wrap Up and Tomorrow
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
On Tuesday, March 3, Brian Szytel reports a volatile session where the Dow opened down about 850 points, fell as much as 1,200, and recovered to close down about 400, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down about 1% and moving more in unison; the 10-year yield rose only 1 bp after being up over 6 bps earlier. Markets reacted to fears around a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly lifted oil over 9% before closing up 2.8%, and to U.S. assurances of tanker insurance/protection that eased inflation expectations; TIPS breakevens jumped about 20 bps. He notes LNG is cut off to most Middle East countries and export transportation is down 20%, with U.S. gas about 40% cheaper than Europe/Asia. He previews key week data (ADP, PMI/ISM services, Beige Book, claims, productivity, and the employment report) and answers an AI question: U.S. power upgrades are “when, not if” despite regulatory delays and natural-gas advantages, while China faces chip export controls; U.S.–China AI partnership is unlikely due to national security concerns.
00:00 Market Selloff Recap
00:36 Strait Tensions and Oil Spike
02:03 Energy Supply Disruptions
02:27 War Headlines and Market Context
03:16 Inflation Breakevens and TIPS
03:32 Staying Calm in Volatility
04:12 Week Ahead Economic Data
04:52 Ask TBG AI and Energy
05:24 US Power Buildout Outlook
06:33 China Chips and DeepSeek
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NdZ2Sm
In a Monday Dividend Cafe recorded before the market close, David Bahnsen discusses the market and energy implications of weekend U.S. military actions involving Iran, emphasizing the show is not for strategic or editorial war analysis. He notes futures opened down about 500 points but equities recovered to roughly flat, while oil rose about 6–9% to around $70 and U.S. LNG-related names moved on the prospect of greater export demand if Middle Eastern supply is disrupted. He highlights the absence of a traditional “flight to safety,” with Treasury yields higher across the curve (10-year up about 9 bps, 2-year up about 11 bps) and defensives lagging while energy and technology led. Bahnsen argues outcomes hinge on conflict duration, but elevated valuations and broader uncertainties (AI, private credit, tariffs, courts) raise risk and volatility.
00:00 Monday Market Setup
00:51 What This Show Covers
02:21 Futures Drop Then Recover
03:26 Oil Moves And LNG Angle
04:50 Conflict Duration Scenarios
06:47 Why Markets Stay Calm
08:16 Bonds And Sector Signals
10:09 Valuations And Uncertainty
11:59 Closing Thoughts And Prayer
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4u0yp3O
David argues there is growing, often uninformed media hysteria about private asset markets that affects everyone and conflates many separate issues into one negative narrative. David says the Dividend Cafe aims to deliver truth in a discernible, actionable way by parsing distinct “stories,” including AI’s potential impact on software firms and related loans, liquidity dynamics and loan quality in private direct lending, limited partners versus investors in private asset management companies, the implications of offering private-market investments to retail investors, and capital-markets “indigestion” from many sponsors trying to sell companies amid limited buyers. Bahnsen criticizes financial media for blending these topics to drive clicks and ratings, creating hype while obscuring important distinctions and actionable understanding.
00:00 Media Hysteria Setup
01:41 Why Nuance Matters
02:15 Ten Stories Not One
04:28 Media Incentives And Clicks
05:46 The Catchall Narrative
07:24 Closing Take On The Hype
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Brian Szytel reviews a mixed Thursday market session with the Dow slightly up, the S&P 500 down about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq down about 1.2%, highlighting value’s outperformance versus tech. He discusses Nvidia’s heavily anticipated earnings beat (including guidance) but notes the stock still fell, arguing expectations were priced in and that AI-related capex at big tech is already starting and will inevitably continue to slow from a record pace that has pushed Mag Seven free cash flow slightly negative; as free cash flow rebounds, he expects more shareholder returns via buybacks, acquisitions, and potential dividend growth. He then explains the Depository Trust Company (DTC) system created in 1973 to simplify securities ownership and transfers, addresses concerns about government seizure as unlikely, and cites MF Global’s 2011 misuse of client assets as an example of illegal but possible misconduct.
00:00 Market Wrap and Style Shift
00:33 Nvidia Earnings and AI Valuation
01:10 Mag Seven CapEx and Shareholder Returns
02:45 What Is the DTC
03:59 Can Assets Be Seized
04:58 MF Global Cautionary Tale
05:51 Closing Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel with a Daily Recap recorded shortly before the close as markets trade higher (Dow up ~300, S&P up nearly 1%, Nasdaq up over 1%) and notes upcoming Nvidia earnings. He focuses on economic takeaways from the State of the Union rather than politics, highlighting the lack of new affordability proposals as potentially market-friendly. He says Medicaid drug price controls were reiterated but have little market impact due to low passage odds, and that pharma has largely navigated tariff threats already. He reviews proposals for government-matched quasi-401(k) plans for lower-income Americans, requiring hyperscalers to fund their own power needs, and an unrealistic idea of tariffs replacing income taxes. He supports banning congressional stock trading and notes omissions on credit-card rate caps and 2026 tax-cut reconciliation, while flagging a call to ban institutional ownership of residential real estate.
00:00 Market Snapshot Setup
00:36 State of the Union Focus
01:12 Affordability and Policy Restraint
02:15 Prescription Drugs and Pharma
03:25 New Savings Plan Proposal
03:42 AI Data Centers and Power
04:17 Tariffs and Tax Reality Check
04:45 Congress Stock Trading Ban
05:04 What Wasn't Said and Housing
05:48 Wrap Up and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group’s Newport Beach office recaps Tuesday’s market rebound: Dow +370, S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +1%+, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.03%. He discusses reports of possible tax relief in the State of the Union as potentially positive for productivity and growth, while noting broader political concerns around tariffs and government involvement in private companies. He reviews the finalized broad-based tariff rate of 10% (down from a floated 15%), calling it a meaningful reduction—about $140B less in tariff revenue—supportive of economic growth. Szytel addresses media attention on private credit, saying delinquencies are only modestly higher, spreads remain tight, and lending continues; gated redemptions in some funds reflect illiquid underlying assets, not distress, and cited loan sales were near par (99.70). Economic data was broadly positive: Case-Shiller 20-city home prices +1.4% YoY (0.5% seasonally adjusted), consumer confidence rose to 91.2 vs 88.6 expected, and wholesale inventories were in line at +0.2% for December.
00:00 Market Rebound Recap
00:30 Tax Relief Headlines
01:17 Tariff Rate Update
01:57 Private Credit Reality Check
03:38 Today’s Economic Data
04:35 Wrap Up and Thanks
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40qp47X
Snowed in New York recording opens with a sharp selloff (Dow -822; S&P -1%+; Nasdaq -1.1%). Weakness tied more to AI valuation and pressure in tech and financials than tariffs. The 10-year yield fell to ~4.03%; defensives led.
AI capex for 2026 is pegged at $650B across five firms. Nvidia’s $30B OpenAI investment is expected to cycle back via chip orders.
The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that IEEPA cannot be used to impose tariffs; Congress retains tariff authority. Refund mechanics remain unclear.
Possible alternatives include Section 122 (150-day limit) and the more complex 301 and 232 routes. Strategas estimates a net $70B tariff reduction even if some measures return.
Refunds could total $120–130B, potentially stimulative, though implementation may be uneven. July’s USMCA review approaches amid improving U.S.–Mexico ties and rising U.S.–Canada tensions.
Q4 GDP was 1.4%; 2025 growth seen at 2.2% vs. 2.8% in 2024. Housing is softening, with markets pricing in 2–3 Fed cuts toward ~3%.
00:00 Snowed In Intro
01:15 Market Selloff Snapshot
03:24 AI Capex Reality Check
04:52 Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
06:33 Section 122 Workaround
08:06 Other Tariff Pathways
09:40 Economic Impact Estimates
10:44 Refunds and USMCA Fallout
12:56 GDP Housing and Fed Cuts
15:25 Geopolitics and Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4tNvJGE
David Bahnsen opens Dividend Cafe after a volatile week marked by a weaker-than-expected GDP report and a Supreme Court ruling striking down President Trump’s tariff rationale under the Economic Emergency Act (with a deeper tariff discussion coming Monday). His core thesis: disinflation is likely in 2026—and it may not feel positive.
He clarifies the difference between inflation (rising prices), disinflation (slower price increases), and deflation (falling prices). Bond markets are signaling softer expectations, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.07% and five-year inflation breakevens around 2.4%, suggesting modest real growth ahead.
Recent GDP registered about 1.4% annualized, distorted in part by a government shutdown, while core PCE inflation is roughly 3% year-over-year versus 2.9% a year ago. Bahnsen expects services-driven disinflation, particularly as rent measures catch up to real-time data. However, that may not improve affordability given tight housing inventory and a frozen resale market.
He also warns that business investment is overly concentrated in AI and data centers—echoing the fracking-era CapEx surge—while broader investment remains subdued. Risks to growth include a weak labor market with low hiring, a personal saving rate near 3.4% (raising the chance tax refunds rebuild savings instead of fuel spending), and muted bank lending despite lower rates.
00:00 A wild news week
01:48 Cutting through economic spin
03:23 Why 2026 disinflation may disappoint
04:36 Bond market signals
07:16 GDP and data distortions
10:49 Services-led disinflation
14:05 Concentrated CapEx risk
16:38 Labor, savings, and lending
20:09 Tariffs and demand drag
22:24 What to watch next
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group recaps a modest down day in markets—Dow down 267 points, S&P 500 down 0.25%, and Nasdaq down 0.33%—while noting the market remains up on the week. The 10-year yield edged down to about 4.07% amid expectations that a new Fed chair in May could eventually bring short-term rate cuts. He discusses rising Middle East tensions and increased U.S. presence tied to Iran, which has helped push crude higher (about 6% over two days; up ~15% YTD), but argues energy’s strong performance is primarily driven by supply/demand fundamentals and well-run businesses, with the sector up ~23% YTD and 95% of names above their 200-day moving average. He highlights leadership from defensives like energy, industrials, staples, and materials—often a late-cycle signal—while technology and communication services lag, with only ~40% of names above their 200-day averages; he notes some software valuations have compressed from mid-30s multiples to low-20s. Economic updates include better-than-expected initial jobless claims (206k vs 220k), a wider December trade deficit (over $70B vs ~56B expected), a stronger Philly Fed manufacturing reading, and weaker pending home sales. He closes by answering a question on non-GAAP vs GAAP P/E ratios, explaining non-GAAP adjusts for one-time items to estimate normalized earnings, while cautioning that recurring “anomalies” can make non-GAAP misleading and require careful analysis.
00:00 Market Close Recap: Indexes Dip, Rates Steady
00:52 Energy Sector Strength: Oil Headlines vs Real Fundamentals
02:08 Sector Rotation & Valuations: Defensives Lead, Tech Lags
03:30 Economic Data Roundup: Jobs, Trade, Manufacturing, Housing
04:07 Viewer Q&A: Non-GAAP vs GAAP P/E Ratios Explained
05:28 Wrap-Up & Weekend Sign-Off
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com





After hearing David on The World and Everything In It, I decided to Google him and came across some great additional sources to hear him... including this gem of a podcast!
David's logical brillance makes all of his afternoon missives easy to listen to and understand. On a personal note David's commentary gives me confidence as a client of the Bahnsen Group.
great breakdown of the situation in simple layman terms. always come out feeling better about things after listening to David.
came to this podcast via Radio Free California. awesome commentary, makes complicated stuff seem simple.
Best podcast on economic and financial matters that I have yet discovered.
Amazing podcast. I suggest you market this podcast more. Ive been looking for a informative podcast on the markets and found this podcast on my last try.