The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4jGkzyW In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen explores the critical importance of dividend growth investing, using real-life examples from the media sector's history of mergers and acquisitions. He talks about the recent Netflix's proposed acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery, recalling the infamous AOL Time Warner merger and the turbulent history of Viacom, Paramount, and CBS. He contrasts these with companies like Comcast that have demonstrated responsible capital return through dividend growth. Bahnsen explains how dividend growth signals management's confidence in their business model and serves as a safeguard for both investors and companies, preventing reckless financial behavior. The episode emphasizes the value of dividend growth investing for long-term shareholder value and financial stability. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:29 The Media Sector's M&A Drama 02:21 The AOL Time Warner Merger: A Case Study 07:18 The Rise and Fall of Viacom and Paramount 10:56 The Importance of Dividend Growth 19:15 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a daily market recap for January 15th, highlighting a positive day across indices such as the DOW Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. Key economic insights discussed include lower-than-expected jobless claims, strong manufacturing survey results, and the performance of semiconductor stocks. The episode also explores reasons why markets continue to climb despite various economic concerns, emphasizing financial conditions, Fed balance sheet policies, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation in financials. Brian addresses a client question on Fed independence and the potential implications of administrative actions on market volatility, underlining the importance of maintaining diversified portfolios to navigate uncertainty. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:42 Economic Indicators and Job Market 01:24 Manufacturing and Semiconductor Updates 01:51 Year-to-Date Market Performance 02:11 Climbing the Wall of Worry 03:23 Financial Conditions and Fiscal Stimulus 04:45 Fed Independence and Market Implications 06:06 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the overall market decline and the shift towards value-oriented sectors. He highlights the impact of delayed government statistics on retail sales, home sales, and inflation. Despite mixed earnings from major financial institutions, value stocks and sectors such as industrials, energy, and materials have shown positive performance at the start of the year. Brian also addresses a thoughtful question on whether the US dollar could be replaced as the reserve currency, emphasizing current market dynamics and the lack of a stable alternative. He concludes with insights into upcoming interest rate policies and potential judicial rulings on tariffs. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:16 Sector Performance and Market Rotation 01:02 Economic Indicators and Earnings Reports 03:15 Discussion on the US Dollar and Global Trade 06:27 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Update and Inflation Insights - January 13th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update, highlighting a 398-point drop in the DOW and smaller declines in the S&P and Nasdaq indices. The episode features an in-depth analysis of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating modestly above-target inflation at 2.7% year over year, with core inflation at 2.6%. Brian discusses the Federal Reserve's modestly restrictive policy stance amid current inflation rates and anticipates further inflation trends. He also addresses the potential impact of the Trump administration's announcement of $200 billion in Fannie and Freddie mortgage bond buying, expressing skepticism about its long-term benefits. The episode concludes with an invitation for listener questions and provides insights into upcoming economic indicators. 00:00 Market Overview and Daily Performance 00:41 Inflation Update and CPI Read 02:35 Fed Policy and Interest Rates 04:11 Government Interventions and Housing Market 05:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4jyfdpi Market Updates, Fed Investigation, and Public Policy Insights - Monday Dividend Cafe In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen emphasizes the productivity and enjoyment derived from the structured Monday format, which covers key market categories including public policy, economic data, and energy. The episode dives into five significant recent events, including criminal investigations into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, tweets from President Trump, market reactions, and President Trump's various policy announcements. David also provides a market performance update, specifically mentioning the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ movements, and discusses the implications of public policy changes on sectors like housing, defense, and finance. Economic data such as job creation numbers, the trade deficit, and CFO survey findings are also analyzed. Additionally, Bahnsen previews the upcoming earnings season and offers insights into the impact on markets and sectors. Closing the episode, David shares details about Dividend Cafe's regular content offerings. 00:00 Introduction to Monday's Dividend Cafe 00:48 Market Overview and Recent Events 01:48 Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell Investigation 04:18 Market Reactions and Analysis 12:09 Public Policy Announcements 15:28 Economic Data Insights 18:46 Housing and Mortgage Market Update 21:46 Oil Market and Geopolitical Factors 23:20 Conclusion and Upcoming Earnings Season Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4qlplEM In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the first of 2026, David L. Bahnsen reflects on the events of 2025 and provides insights and predictions for the year ahead. Key topics include the impact of the Trump administration's policies, particularly relating to tariffs and the tax bill, and their influence on the stock market and economy. David discusses major themes such as the performance of risk assets, the state of the AI industry, housing market trends, the significance of midterm elections, and the potential for small cap growth. Predictions for 2026 include the vulnerabilities in AI, the tug of war between economic drivers and headwinds, and the outlook for energy and M&A activities. The episode provides a comprehensive review and forward-looking analysis aimed at helping investors make informed decisions in the coming year. 00:00 Introduction and Annual Review Overview 01:47 Reflecting on 2025: Key Questions and Themes 06:18 Major Events and Market Reactions in Early 2025 10:14 Mid-Year Market Volatility and Policy Shifts 12:27 Third Quarter Market Dynamics and Labor Market Concerns 17:57 Year-End Market Performance and Sector Analysis 25:53 Evaluating 2025 Predictions and Themes 30:56 China Relations: A Bold Prediction 33:42 Financial Deregulation: A Mixed Bag 35:14 Earnings Disappointment: A Risky Theme 36:27 Corporate Activity: A Record Year 38:17 Deficit Reduction: A Contrarian View 40:11 Quantitative Tightening Ends 42:18 2026 Themes: AI Vulnerabilities 47:45 Economic Tug of War 50:06 Midterm Elections and Market Impact 51:38 Housing Market Predictions 53:11 Small Cap vs. S&P 500 53:51 Foreign Appetite for US Assets 54:43 Energy Sector: A Contrarian Opportunity 55:47 Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook 56:19 Conclusion: Upside Risks and Cautious Optimism Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Overview and Economic Data Insights: January 8th Edition In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the day's market movements from West Palm Beach, Florida, highlighting slight increases in stock prices and minor sell-off in bonds. The anticipation of key announcements, such as the non-farm payroll report and a Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariff eligibility, is noted. Other topics include the initial jobless claims report and its implications, the narrowing trade deficit, and Q3 productivity growth. Additionally, there is a discussion on the strategic importance of Venezuelan oil reserves and the potential geopolitical ramifications. The episode concludes with an optimistic overview of recent economic data and a preview of upcoming events. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:23 Upcoming Economic Reports and Supreme Court Ruling 01:00 Market Reactions and Predictions 02:31 Economic Data Highlights 04:18 Venezuela's Strategic Importance 06:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Snapshot: A Day of Mixed Signals and Volatility In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from West Palm Beach, Florida, discusses the latest market trends as of January 7th. Despite two consecutive positive days, the market experienced a slight downturn with the DOW down by nearly 1%, the S&P down by a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq inching slightly positive. Positive movements in the bond market and an increase in volatility were noted. Key geopolitical developments included potential positive news about Ukraine and discussions around Venezuelan oil and Greenland. On the economic front, the ADP private payroll and job openings numbers were slightly weaker than expected, but the ISM services number exceeded expectations. Brian provides insights into the impacts of Venezuelan oil on global prices and discusses the current state of the energy sector. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:11 Geopolitical Headlines Impacting Markets 02:10 Economic Data and Market Reactions 03:51 Venezuelan Oil and Market Implications 04:57 Energy Sector Insights 05:33 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a brief market update for January 6th, discussing recent market gains driven by anticipated tax cuts and not political events like the situation in Venezuela. He talks about Venezuela's reduced oil production and its impact on energy markets, as well as stock rotations from growth to value sectors. The economic update includes the S&P services PMI, which remains in expansionary territory. He also addresses a viewer question about gold's performance and future outlook, highlighting the complexities and factors influencing gold prices, with a specific focus on The Bahnsen Group's investment approach. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:28 Market Update and Tax Cuts 01:09 Impact of Venezuela on Energy Markets 02:15 Stock Market Movements and Economic Indicators 03:05 Market Predictions and Earnings 04:18 Gold Market Analysis 05:58 Conclusion and Viewer Questions Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4q14ZAi Dividend Cafe 2026: Venezuela's Impact on Energy Markets & Market Rally Analysis In the first Dividend Cafe of 2026, the focus is on the major market rally observed on Monday and its underlying factors. The discussion is heavily centered around the recent geopolitical developments in Venezuela, including the U.S. military operation that led to the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro. The script explores different potential scenarios for Venezuela's political future and the market implications, particularly for the energy sector. Additionally, there are insights on the age of companies going public, recent economic data, and the housing market trends. Upcoming content for the year ahead is also highlighted. 00:00 Introduction and Upcoming Yearly Review 01:18 Market Recap: A Strong Start to the Year 03:08 Energy Sector and Venezuela's Impact 07:38 Venezuela: Geopolitical Developments 14:52 Economic Updates and Housing Market Insights 17:19 Conclusion and Weekly Expectations Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4pUysvR Final Dividend Cafe of 2025: Year-End Market Recap and Outlook for 2026 In this final Dividend Cafe of 2025, David Bahnsen reviews key economic data points and market trends, including the performance of major indices and sector highlights. The discussion covers the lack of seasonality in market movements, updates on bond yields, and the significance of periodic portfolio rebalancing. The episode also touches on public policy issues related to data centers and provides insights on midstream energy sectors. David announces the upcoming annual 'year behind, year ahead' white paper and his ongoing book project on dividend growth investing. The session concludes with a look ahead to the first Dividend Cafe of 2026 and encourages listeners to read further on topics like gold as an inflation hedge. 00:00 Welcome to the Final Dividend Cafe of 2025 00:43 Recap of the Year and Upcoming Plans 02:44 Market Updates and Trends 06:29 Public Policy and The Fed 07:28 Energy Sector Insights 08:39 Looking Ahead to 2026 Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4p4y8t8 Reflecting on 25 Years of Market Lessons in the Final Friday Dividend Cafe of 2025 In the final Friday Dividend Cafe of 2025, the speaker reflects on the major market events and financial lessons from the first 25 years of the new century and millennium. From the Y2K fears and dot-com bubble burst, through the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, this episode covers significant economic and geopolitical events that shaped the markets. The speaker emphasizes the normality of instability in markets and the importance of staying invested despite turbulent times. The primary takeaway is that long-term investment in profit-making enterprises, especially via dividend growth investing, has proven resilient and rewarding. The episode closes with an encouragement to appreciate the lessons learned and look forward to the future with a disciplined investment approach. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:15 Reflecting on the First 25 Years 02:51 The Dotcom Bubble and Y2K 09:58 9/11 and Market Reactions 14:19 The Financial Crisis of 2008 18:15 The Recovery Decade 20:33 The COVID-19 Pandemic 24:15 Lessons from 25 Years of Market Instability 31:20 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap: Thursday, December 18 - Modest Gains and Inflation Insights In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel provides an update on the market movements for Thursday, December 18. The DOW closed with a modest gain of 65 points (0.14%), S&P increased by 0.8%, and NASDAQ saw a tech-led rally with a 1.38% rise. Despite a rebound, the week is expected to end negatively for stocks overall. A key focus is the release of the latest CPI print, which showed a surprisingly low inflation rate of 2.7% versus the expected 3.1%, but the numbers are questionable due to a government shutdown affecting data collection. Initial jobless claims came in line with consensus at 224,000, while continuing claims were slightly below expectations. The Philly Fed Index reported a weaker-than-expected manufacturing number at -10 versus the expected +3. Brian also discusses the interplay between inflation rates and the role of the Fed, emphasizing that market forces and money supply are critical factors. He wraps up with light-hearted remarks about holiday shopping and extends holiday greetings to viewers. 00:00 Market Update: December 18th 00:10 Stock and Bond Performance 00:59 CPI Report Analysis 02:01 Economic Calendar Highlights 02:45 Inflation and The Fed's Role 04:24 Closing Remarks and Holiday Wishes Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Declines, Fed Policy, and Strategic Dividend Investing - Dividend Cafe Update In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the recent downturn in the stock market, particularly in AI-related stocks and cryptocurrencies. Financial volatility and credit default swaps in major names are highlighted. Szytel also reviews ongoing discussions about the next Federal Reserve chair and the implications of potential rate cuts and balance sheet actions. He provides insights on dividend investing strategy, emphasizing yield sustainability and growth. Upcoming economic data releases are previewed, including initial claims, November CPI, December Philly Fed manufacturing, consumer sentiment, and existing home sales. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:21 AI and Cryptocurrency Market Trends 01:12 Federal Reserve and Economic Policies 03:27 Impact of Rate Cuts and Economic Stimulus 05:04 Dividend Income Strategies 06:59 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Movements, Economic Indicators, and AI vs Dot-Com Era Analysis In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel provides a daily market recap for Tuesday, December 16th, detailing a mixed day with NASDAQ slightly positive, and declines in DOW and S&P indices. He discusses the impact of new economic data including better-than-expected non-farm payrolls and a rise in unemployment rates from 4.4% to 4.6%. Szytel also covers flash readings on services and manufacturing PMI which were below consensus. Additionally, he compares the dot-com era of the 90s with today's AI paradigm, highlighting the ongoing capital expenditure needs for AI technologies. Lastly, he addresses a Q&A about potentially creating a financial terminology booklet to help demystify investment jargon. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:41 Economic Data Breakdown 03:13 Comparing Dot-Com Era to AI Boom 05:36 Q&A Session and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3MvD1Ot Monday Market Recap and Reflections on Recent Events In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen discusses various market trends and policy issues from the New York City office. He reflects on the significant news events over the weekend, including the Brown University shooting, attacks in Australia and Syria, and the murder of filmmaker Rob Reiner and his wife. David analyzes stock market behaviors, including sector performances and reactions to AI infrastructure stocks, and provides insights into bond yields and the housing market. He also touches on Supreme Court cases affecting tariffs and forecasts potential policy moves regarding the Affordable Care Act subsidies. Lastly, he speaks about the tragic death of Rob Reiner, highlighting the impact of his films. 00:00 Introduction and Upcoming Schedule 02:13 Reflecting on a Tragic News Weekend 03:41 Market Overview and Key Observations 04:50 AI Sector Performance and Market Rotation 06:47 Bond Yields and Financial Sector Insights 09:31 Policy Updates and Supreme Court Predictions 12:08 Economic Data and Trade Deficit Analysis 13:14 Housing Market Trends and Builder Sentiment 16:17 Federal Reserve Actions and Interest Rates 19:28 Tribute to Rob Reiner and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aK1R6X Honoring a Legacy: Greg Bahnsen's Influence on Investment Philosophy In this special edition of Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen reflects on the legacy of his father, Greg Bahnsen, commemorating the 30th anniversary of his passing. David explores the significant influence his father had on his work at The Bahnsen Group, particularly in investment philosophy and financial advisory. Through personal anecdotes, David discusses his father's dedication to hard work, commitment to first principles, and disdain for relativism, which have all deeply shaped his approach to investment management. He also touches on modern medical innovations and their importance, driven by the context of his father's health challenges. David concludes by highlighting the vital role of intellectual contribution and behavioral management in wealth management, drawing from his father's academic work on self-deception. 00:00 Introduction to the Friday Edition 00:19 Remembering Greg Bahnsen 01:50 Greg Bahnsen's Medical Journey 05:29 Reflections on Medical Innovations 08:10 The Legacy of Hard Work 10:56 Philosophical Foundations in Investment 16:43 Self-Deception and Investment Management 20:56 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Overview and Insights on Private Credit – December 11, 2025 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on the financial markets from the Newport Beach office of The Bahnsen Group. The DOW closed up by 646 points, while the S&P had modest gains and NASDAQ saw a slight decline. Szytel discusses the rotation from growth to value sectors, the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, and their impacts on the market. He also covers upcoming deregulatory changes and tax cuts, a weakening labor market, and concerns about overstated employment numbers. Additionally, he answers a listener question about payment-in-kind (PIK) in private credit, explaining the risks and how such loans are typically managed. He concludes by emphasizing the past three years' market performance and the potential for slower growth ahead. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:14 Stock Market Performance 01:13 Bond Market Insights 01:35 Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Impact 03:15 Corporate Profits and Economic Outlook 04:10 Private Credit and Payment in Kind (PIK) 06:18 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Post-FOMC Meeting Market Reaction and Economic Outlook - December 10, 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group in Newport Beach discusses the market's reactions to the Federal Reserve's recent actions. On December 10th, 2023, the Federal Reserve concluded its FOMC meeting, cutting rates by 25 basis points and adding to its balance sheet, which boosted both the stock and bond markets. The Dow closed up 497 points, with the S&P and Nasdaq also showing gains. Szytel explains the significance of the steepening yield curve, which signals positive economic growth, and reviews the Federal Reserve's future interest rate expectations, unemployment, inflation, and GDP projections. The episode also addresses an op-ed by Muhammad Al Arian regarding the restructuring of The Fed. Overall, the episode provides an optimistic outlook on short-term risk assets and the economy. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Federal Reserve Meeting Insights 00:48 Market Reactions and Performance 01:25 Understanding Yield Curves 03:28 Economic Projections and Fed Actions 04:30 Op-Ed Discussion and Final Thoughts 05:17 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Insights on Upcoming Fed Decisions In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group discusses the market activity on December 9th, highlighting slight declines in both the stock and bond markets. He reviews the latest economic indicators, including the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and the JOLTS job openings report. Szytel also provides insights into the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the potential interest rate changes, and the implications for the labor market. Additionally, he touches on the investment potential in the utility sector and the importance of selecting the right companies within high-growth sectors like AI, using historical examples from the natural gas fracking industry and fiber optics. The episode concludes with a reminder of the importance of bottom-up investment fundamentals and dividend reliability. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview: Stocks and Bonds 00:48 Fed's Interest Rate Decision 01:51 Economic Data Insights 03:10 Labor Market Analysis 04:17 Interest Rates and Balance Sheet 04:50 Investment in Utilities 06:16 Investment Risks and Strategies 08:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com