The Milk Check

Are you leaving calf money on the table? Not long ago, a Holstein bull calf might have earned you 50 bucks, if that. Today, thanks to high beef prices and better breeding tools, that same cow might deliver a $1,000 calf instead. Beef-on-dairy isn’t just a trend; it’s changing how progressive dairies manage their herds and drive revenue. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III talks with CoBank’s Corey Geiger and Abbigail Prins about how dairy farmers are rethinking breeding strategies and how those decisions are reshaping herd structure, replacement numbers, and profitability. Why some farms are holding onto cows longer How sexed semen and genomics are guiding breeding calls And how beef calves are becoming a serious income stream Whether you're breeding for replacements, premiums or profit, this episode unpacks how to make herd decisions that pay. Listen now to hear why the value of a cow’s uterus might be higher than ever. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Intro (with music): Welcome to the Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Co., where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome everybody to this month's version of the Milk Check, a T.C. Jacoby & Co. podcast. Really excited today to have two special guests from CoBank, Corey Geiger and Abbi Prins. We are going to talk about breeding to beef and the profitability of the dairy farm, and how that dairy farm profitability has changed over the years as this trend has come about, and what it means for the future of dairy. Excited to have this conversation, Corey, Abbi, thank you so much for joining us today. So Corey, what do you do? Corey Geiger: CoBank is actually short for cooperative banks, so we're the bank of cooperatives. We're part of the Farm Credit System. Abbi and I are part of the knowledge exchange division, so we have a group of 10 economists who work in dairy and animal protein, consumer package goods, digital infrastructure, and farm inputs and crops. I've been at CoBank for two years now. I have just started my third year with CoBank, and Abbi joined our team about a year ago. She can tell you a little bit about herself. Abbigail Prins: Thanks, Corey. I also joined CoBank about a year and a half ago. I helped cover the dairy and animal protein sectors, come from a very heavy dairy and agriculture background, originally from Tulare, California, based out of Minnesota now. We're excited to be on the podcast with you today, so thank you for the invitation. Ted Jacoby III: Abbi, Corey, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. So our topic today is going to be about breeding to beef and the dairy farm profitability, and how the whole breeding to beef trend has been affecting dairy farm profitability. Give us a little background on this trend of how more and more dairy farmers are breeding dairy cows in order to get cows to enter the dairy herd. More and more dairy farmers are breeding to beef and how is that affecting the dairy breed right now? Corey Geiger: I have a broad background, having been in the editorial team of Hoard's Dairyman for 28 years and a past president of Holstein USA, and this is a journey. It really involves a triple play. The first part of that triple play was gender sorted semen coming onto the scene. Then genomics came on the scene, and then it all kind of came together with the beef on dairy movement. Now, economics always enters the equation because if I were to come back and have a conversation with my late grandfathers and say, "We're breeding some of our prize Holsteins to Angus," they'd throw me out the window, thinking I fell on my head. But gender sorted semen came along.

The school bells are ringing in some changes for milk. Are you ready? Tune in to The Milk Check as the Jacoby team churns through the latest supply and demand dynamics in the August milk market, including: Why the usual summer heat dip in milk production feels normal, despite 3.3% higher year-over-year numbers Why cheese prices are holding steady and how New Zealand’s production could impact exports Why protein products are powering ahead with strong domestic and international demand Why nonfat dry milk remains stuck in a flat market Whether you’re a farmer, processor, or trader, tune in to The Milk Check to learn where we are and where we’re headed as we head into the holiday season. Click below to listen to The Milk Check episode 81: From Summer Heat to School Coolers. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to The Milk Check. We're recording this particular podcast on August 5, 2025. We're having a classic market discussion today, and with us are Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients group; Greg Sheer, who heads up our milk marketing group; Mike Brown of Jacoby dairy market intelligence; Tristan Suellentrop, and me. We're gonna just quickly speed through all the products and talk a little bit about what the demand and supply looks like as we transition from the heat of the summer into the fall. This time of year, what we're usually watching: the weather is hot, milk is starting to get a little bit tight, and then school starts up in a couple of weeks, so the bottling plants start needing more milk. We start shipping milk to the Southeast, and that tends to start a progression of tightness, not only in the milk supply, but in the supply of all dairy products as we get into the fall and the holiday season. So, we'll go ahead and start with Greg. Hey, Greg, can you tell us a little bit about what's going on with milk right now? Greg Scheer: We do see seasonally tightening milk supply. Production has been hit by the summer heat like it usually does. Maybe a little more heat in the Northeast than normal. We're seeing that in the Mideast and Midwest and all the way into the South and Southeast. We have some comments from some of our producers that maybe a little bit older cow herd has caused the heat to be a little more significant than normal. But we don't see an overabundance of that normal seasonal weakness in milk production. We're seeing solid demand, and we're starting to see a draw to the Southeast as schools will be starting up soon in the South and moving North when the schools start. So, that filling of the pipeline is going to really tighten the market, as it normally does seasonally at this time. So, tight spot markets and premiums throughout the Northeast, Mideast, and Midwest. We have the normal heat in the Southwest. Maybe a little less than usual in California, in the very west, but seasonally we're trending where we typically are this time of year, and we're about to get to the tightest time of the year when schools start to fill that pipeline for the school milk. So, expect firm spot market prices going forward. Even though production may bounce back a little from recent heat as we move into the end of August and September, depending on the weather this month. Ted Jacoby III: The Milk Production Report for June said we were up 3.3%. Does it really feel like we're up that much in a lot of the parts of the country, Greg, where we've got milk, or does it just feel like a classic deep summer transition into fall tightness? Greg Scheer: It felt like that in June that we were up that much. It doesn't feel like that now, which is normal. We had a heat wave in June, all of a sudden it went from being kind of cool and rainy to a hot spell that kind of kicked ...

GLP-1s like Ozempic and Wegovy are changing how Americans eat, and that has big implications for the dairy industry. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III welcomes Paul Ziemnisky, leader of nutrition and industry growth platforms at Dairy Management Inc., and Dr. Chris Cifelli, vice president of nutrition research for the National Dairy Council. Together with the Jacoby team, they unpack what GLP-1 appetite-suppressing drugs mean for dairy demand, and how our industry can win. We cover: How GLP-1s suppress hunger and how dairy’s fat + protein combo supports satiety How protein quality matters more than ever, and why dairy still leads the pack How R&D teams are turning classic dairy products into high-protein, low-sugar solutions From gut health to GLP-1 support, this episode dives deep into one of the most important trends shaping dairy today. Join us for The Milk Check episode 81: The Ozempic and GLP-1 shockwave hitting U.S. dairy. Intro with music: Welcome to the Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Co, where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Hello, everybody, and welcome to the Milk Check. Excited to be here today. In addition to our usual suspects, Josh White, Mike Brown, and my brother guest, Jacoby. We've got two special guests today. We have Paul Ziemnisky, leader for nutrition and product science, technology, innovation and industry growth platforms at Dairy Management Inc. Again, we have Dr. Chris Cifelli, vice president of nutrition research for the National Dairy Council. Guys, thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you for taking time out of your busy days to talk about GLP-1s and how it's affecting the dairy industry. We really appreciate it. What are GLP-1s and why are they good for dairy? Dr. Chris Cifelli: I'll start with what they are and then Paul can talk about the consumer point of view. One of the key things whenever we eat food is that feeling of satiety, the feeling of fullness we get during a meal and then the satiation that occurs between meals until we get those body cues again that we're hungry and we want to eat. Unfortunately, in the environment we're in with stress and different factors, our body is a lot off schedule, so we tend to eat a lot more than we may need to on a daily basis. What GLP's are, glucagon like peptide is the official name, it's an appetite suppressant. So, when you eat and especially when you eat fat and protein, the body will release GLP-1 naturally, and that's what starts making you feel full. What these pharmaceuticals are, are ways to keep the levels of GLP-1 up in your body so you feel less hungry throughout the day more naturally. And what that's going to do is you're not going to snack quite as much. You're not going to have those cravings maybe for sweet salty snacks during the day. But with that appetite suppressant, it means that every calorie really then matters when you're eating throughout the day, and that's really where dairy can win. Paul Ziemnisky: To build on that, what it means for dairy is, I think Chris used two magic words, fat and protein. I think fat's been vilified since this early '70s, late '60s, and we've put a lot of effort in investment in proving the value of fat, especially dairy fats. I think you're going to see in the next six months, the acceleration of an acceptance of fat into things like the dietary guidelines and other uses. And the protein side of the equation, we've got the highest quality protein by far. We've got science behind the highest quality proteins and the efficacy of that. And then by the way, consumers, when they purchase anything, taste is number one factor. So, when you look at taste, price, value, health and wellness, we deliver on all those three sweet spots for that consumer. And so, you see things like yogurt on fire because of that,

En este episodio de The Milk Check, le damos la bienvenida a Ruth Aragon al equipo de Jacoby, quien se une a sus colegas de muchos años, Miguel y Yara. Es una reunión basada en décadas de experiencia, relaciones sólidas y un enfoque compartido: fortalecer la presencia de Jacoby en toda Latinoamérica. Acompáñanos mientras el equipo analiza: Cambios en los patrones comerciales y el crecimiento de las exportaciones de queso en México, Centroamérica y Sudamérica Por qué más compradores en Latinoamérica están optando por importaciones directas — y qué significa eso para los productos lácteos estadounidenses Dinámicas de mercado: desde la incertidumbre arancelaria hasta la volatilidad climática Un apetito creciente por las proteínas lácteas en toda la región Desde leche fluida hasta productos terminados, Ruth aporta una experiencia que abarca toda la cadena de suministro. Juntos, este equipo ampliado está listo para ofrecer más valor a los clientes de la región. No te pierdas el episodio 80 de The Milk Check: Bienvenida, Ruth: fortaleciendo a Jacoby en Latinoamérica.

In this week’s episode of The Milk Check, the Jacoby team convenes to dissect a dairy market that feels balanced – barely. From milk still trickling in past the flush to range-bound commodity prices, this episode covers the major trends shaping the back half of 2025. Cheese exports are keeping Class III in check Culling numbers are down as producers are keeping heifers longer Global butterfat advantage fading with tighter GDT spreads WPC, WPI demand stable, but new production capacity looms And what if prices fall off the edge? From trade risks to recession fears, the industry feels one light push from price chaos. Listen now for insights on margins, milk flows and market forces. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We've got answers. Submit your questions below and we'd be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from TC Jacoby & Co., where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Hello everybody, and welcome to this month's version of The Milk Check podcast by TC Jacoby & Co. This week, we will have a classic market discussion. It is June 9th, so we're approaching the midpoint in the month of June 2025, and joining me today are Diego Carvallo, our Director of Dry Dairy Ingredients Trading. Jacob Menge is our vice president of risk management and trading strategy. Josh White, our Vice President of Dairy Ingredients. Mike Brown, our VP of Market Intelligence. Joe Maixner, our director of dairy ingredients and resident butter expert, is also there. I think we'll go ahead and start with milk. It's the middle of June. We're past the flush, but milk is probably a little bit heavier than we expected. Milk production has been up. We know what is going on. The dairy farmers are making money, and they're keeping cows. Their culling numbers are down, and so we're seeing cow numbers up, maybe a little bit surprisingly, given what we know about the heifer replacement numbers, which means they're keeping them for an extra lactation, that is keeping milk solids output maybe a little bit lower than we expected. But the solids are still up as well. So as a result, we're seeing milk still on the long side, not too much out of what is normal for this time of year, and I wouldn't be surprised as the weather in the upper Midwest starts to heat up, we start to see that milk production drop off a little bit and everything get a little bit tighter. We just haven't quite reached that high temperature yet. And so that's what we're seeing in milk. Jake, how does that translate into cheese? What are we seeing in the cheese market right now? Jacob Menge: It's funny, I think from the last time we had a market discussion to today, the message will be very similar, which is a lot of mixed signals on the cheese side. You can talk to certain people who say, Hey, our orders are way down. And then you might talk to somebody else, saying, Hey, our orders look pretty good, meaning the demand is there. I think it's a bit of a tale of two cities regarding how exposed you are to the export market. Exports have been the thing that has been keeping us afloat on the cheese side. I think domestically, we're not doing great. I would say that the prices that we've been seeing, this kind of upper 190s, mid to upper 190s, we've come off in the past week or two, but I think that mid to upper 190s did hurt demand on the export side. I think that's kind of where we're at. I would say good, not great. It just seems like we're going to be range bound a bit on the cheese market just given this kind of pendulum swing of our prices move too high, which kills exports a little bit, but if we go down even just a little bit, you think the export market comes back in, so that's the feel we've got right now. Ted Jacoby III:

Are you missing the biggest leap in dairy performance since the milking machine? From fertility breakthroughs to Holsteins with 4.5% components/5% fat, today’s cows are not your grandparents’ cows. In this episode of The Milk Check, we sit down with Nate Zwald, president and CEO of Progenco, to uncover how genetics is quietly reshaping the dairy industry. We tackle: Why genetic progress is accelerating and how that changes your herd strategy The rise of gender-selected genetics and the fall of dairy bull calves What makes a cow “better” — and how to breed more of them Why embryo technology could be the next big leap Listen now to the latest episode of The Milk Check to learn why cows engineered for fire in the belly could have improved lifespan, higher fertility, better fat composition and a better life. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We've got answers. Submit your questions below and we'd be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the show. Ask The Milk Check Special Guest: Nate Zwald, president and CEO of Progenco The Jacoby Team: Gus Jacoby, president, fluid dairy ingredients & dairy support Mike Brown, vice president of dairy market intelligence Ted Jacoby III, CEO & president, cheese, butter & dry ingredients Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Co., where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to the podcast. This month's version we have a special guest. We have Nate Zwald, former CEO of ABS Global and current president and CEO of Progenco. Joining us from the Jacoby team is Mike Brown, our VP of Market Intelligence, and Josh White, our VP of Dairy Ingredients. Nate, we've asked you on this podcast today because you're one of the foremost experts in bovine genetics out there, and we've been talking a lot about some of the changes in cow genetics and how it's been affecting our dairy markets. It's something we'd love to learn a lot more about. Why don't you start us off? Tell us a little about your background, and we'll go from there. Nate Zwald: Yeah, sure. Well, first of all, a pleasure to be here. I appreciate being asked and appreciate that introduction. I've had a long career in dairy genetics, starting with growing up on a farm and learning about dairy genetics from where it should be learned about, in a barn with my dad, thinking about milking cows and recognizing that the next generation of cows was going to be better than the current generation of cows. And that was a pretty fun thing to see firsthand. When you think about having a daughter of a cow out in the heifer yard, that's going to be better than the cow you're milking today. And I think that's the whole idea that we think about when we think about genetics is making better animals faster and trying always to make sure that the next generation is going to be more productive, healthier, happier, better for the farmers, better for the community, and better for the world and the next generation than the cows are in this generation. And we've seen tremendous progress through time in doing that compared to when I was a kid milking cows thinking, "Hey, I hope the heifer is going to be better than the cow herself." Because here we are, we've gone through so many technologies like selection for fitness, longevity, and fertility, and then we went through genomic technology that's had a huge impact on the industry. And then more recently, sex semen and the use of beef on dairy cows have all had substantial changes to the genetic progress curve compared to what seems like not that long ago from my standpoint, just milking cows in the barn with dad. Ted Jacoby III: So, currently, what are some of the major trends in genetics that the dairy producer is either utilizing or needs to be aware of, that are coming down the pike?

It’s May 8th. Do you know where your tariff is? When the tariff winds shift, the Jacoby team is there to help you steer your strategy. Tune in to the latest episode of The Milk Check with special guest Will Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council, as we cover: Tariff tensions – How will ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China impact dairy exports? Shifting trade strategies – How are global buyers adjusting to new tariff realities, and where does the U.S. stand in this complex landscape? Innovation and adaptation – What moves should U.S. producers and buyers make to adapt and thrive amidst tariff uncertainty? Don’t miss this conversation as we explore how tariffs are reshaping the dairy trade and what the future holds for U.S. dairy exports. Listen now to The Milk Check episode 77: Tariff talk with Will Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from TC Jacoby & Company where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to this week's version of The Milk Check. It is May 1st, 2025. Once again, we're going to revisit the topic of tariffs and international trade. And as everybody knows, it's a shifting landscape. We have a special guest today, Will Loux from the US Dairy Export Council. Will is Senior Vice President of Global Economic Affairs. Will, thanks for joining us today. Will Loux: Thanks for having me, Ted. Good to be on. Ted Jacoby, III: We also have some of our usual suspects. Mike Brown, VP of Dairy Market Intelligence, Miguel Aragon, our director of Latin America Cheese Sales, and Josh White, our VP of Dairy Ingredients, and Tristan Sellentrup. Thanks for joining us, guys. So Will, we're going to start in the obvious place. What is DC's attitude about everything that's going on in tariffs, especially with regards to dairy? Do you see anything changing anytime soon? Is there anything in the works? What's the landscape as you see it? Will Loux: There's a lot of uncertainty. We were talking about several different types of tariffs that are effectively going on because we have our bilateral relationship with China where we have very high tariffs both for products coming into the US and China has very high tariffs for our dairy products going out, but we also have the 10% universal tariff. We have the steel and aluminum tariff. We have the USMCA question marks between Canada, Mexico, everything else. So right, now I would say there's about four different tariff balls being juggled all at once. And as far as where we're going in DC, I think that's anyone's guess where obviously within national milk and the Export Council, very hard at work these days. Very grateful. Jaime and Shauna and Tony Rice on our trade policy team get to live this every day while I get to check out, I guess, what's happening in the markets. Ted Jacoby, III: There's been rumors that China and the US are talking and they're trying to work out some things that could lower those tariffs. What are you hearing? Will Loux: Good question. Right now, at least what we've heard is there are talks, at least attempting to. I don't know how far along these talks have gotten. When we look at the tariffs between the US and China right now, there probably needs to be some sort of path to de-escalation, but this is also something that when we had the first round of retaliatory tariffs between US and China, that lasted 18 months. So I personally don't necessarily expect this to change overnight. That would surprise me. There are a lot of things that would surprise me these days in DC, but I would expect this to be in for the long haul. Whether it stays at 125%, I don't know, but at the same time finding an off ramp for what seems to be at least somewhat of a strategy towards decoupling the US and China in a lot of ways continues to be at least very much forefront and li...

In this week’s episode of The Milk Check, we strap in for a wild ride. From tariff chaos to spring flush milk surpluses, the market is anything but predictable. Join Ted Jacoby and the team of experts as we cover key topics, including: The spring milk flush and its impact on processing plants Cream demand firming up but still long Butter market volatility and how cream shortages are affecting prices Tariffs and how they're impacting the international dairy trade Our team of experts break down the current dairy climate and offer insights on navigating these turbulent waters. Listen now to The Milk Check episode 76: Tariff talk takes dairy on a wild ride. The Jacoby Team: Brianne Breed, senior vice president, cheese trading Diego Carvallo, director, dry dairy ingredient trading Gus Jacoby, president, fluid dairy ingredients & dairy support Jacob Menge, vice president of risk management & trade strategy Joe Maixner, director of sales, dairy ingredients Josh White, vice president, dairy ingredients Miguel Aragón, director of international cheese sales, Latin America Mike Brown, vice president, dairy market intelligence Ted Jacoby III, CEO & president, cheese, butter & dry ingredients Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Company, where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind Ted Jacoby III: Welcome everybody. It is April 11th, 2025. We've had a lot going on in the last couple of weeks. Trump initiated some tariffs, took some tariffs off, and raised some tariffs. I think we landed in various different spots when the dust started to settle, and I'm pretty sure that the dust hasn't settled yet. So, this market discussion could be completely out of date by the time we get back on Monday. I've asked a lot of my traders to join us for this discussion. My brother Gus is representing the Fluid Group and talking a little about milk and cream. We've got Diego with international sales and non-fat. We've got Brianne here to talk about cheese. We've got Joe here to talk about butter, and we've got Josh here to talk about whey, as well as Miguel to help Bri with cheese. And then we've got Mike Brown joining us. And so we're just going to go around the horn and talk about our various dairy products. Obviously, we can't avoid the topic of tariffs today. Let's start where the milk starts, and start with milk. Gus, what's going on in milk right now? Gus Jacoby: Well, we're in the middle of the spring flush. So, in areas like the Mideast, Northeast, and even areas on the Eastern Atlantic, you have some pretty long milk. But an interesting dichotomy for the discussion is that there are areas of the country that aren't so long. It's mostly areas where a lot of milk-processing capacity has been added, like the I-29 corridor up in South Dakota or down the Southwest. Those areas aren't quite as tight, but nonetheless, where it is long, for example, in the Mideast, there have been a number of plant shutdowns for periods that have made it really long for certain stretches. You add in some higher components, and you're in for some interesting times right here in the middle of April. Ted Jacoby III: So we're about a week away from Easter. Do we think things will get even longer over the Easter weekend before they maybe start to clean up a little bit? Gus Jacoby: Some plants that were down are coming back online, but not all of them, so I think you will have a little bit of both. It's hard to figure out exactly how long we'll be over Easter. But I think it's safe to say that you'll likely have enough plant shutdowns during that holiday weekend, and it'll still be ugly. Ted Jacoby III: And what about cream? Cream has been the bane of many people's existence this year, especially in the Midwest. Is it still ugly? Or is it starting to get better? Gus Jacoby: It's not as ugly as it was.

In this episode of The Milk Check, find out why some dairy producers may be eyeing the exit. Sarina Sharp, risk manager at Ag Business Solutions and the writer behind TC Jacoby’s Weekly Market Report joins the Jacoby team this week. Sarina brings invaluable insights as we dig into critical topics like: Milk prices and financial stability: How long can dairy farmers survive with Class III prices dipping below $17? Supply chain shifts: How whiplash tariffs, changing federal orders, and fluctuating demand are affecting the U.S. dairy market. Bird flu and milk production: How the bird flu has changed U.S. milk production, and where it may strike next. Tune in to The Milk Check episode 75: Exit stage left: Why some producers are selling out while they can. If you like milk (and we know you do), then pour yourself a mug and tune in for insights on how to navigate this uncertain landscape and stay ahead in the coming months. Special Guest: Sarina Sharp, risk manager, Ag Business Solutions, and market analyst for the Daily Dairy Report The Jacoby Team: Josh White, vice president, dairy ingredients Ted Jacoby III, CEO & president, cheese, butter & dry ingredients Mike Brown, vice president, dairy market intelligence Gus Jacoby, president, fluid dairy ingredients & dairy support Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Company, where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome everyone to the March 28th, 2025, edition of The Milk Check, a T.C. Jacoby & Company podcast. It is my pleasure to welcome a couple of special guests to the podcast this week, first, Sarina Sharp of Ag Business Solutions and the Daily Dairy report. Welcome to the podcast, Sarina. Most of you know that Sarina is also the writer of the T.C. Jacoby Weekly Market Report, which we publish every Friday. Sarina, we're honored to have you join us today. More importantly, thank you for the partnership. I can't tell you how often I get compliments on the weekly report that you write for us, so thank you very much. Sarina Sharp: Thanks for having me. Thrilled to hear it. Ted Jacoby III: In addition, we have a few of our usual suspects: my brother Gus, head of our fluid group; Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients team, and I am excited to announce that Mike Brown, formerly of IDFA and Kroger fame, is joining the Jacoby team as our new vice president of Dairy Market Intelligence. Mike, I am excited to have you on the team, and I look forward to having you on this podcast as a regular presence. Mike Brown: Well, thank you, Ted. I'm delighted to be here. It's good to be back in markets and away from government regulation. I'm very excited about the opportunity. And Sarina, I am really looking forward to working with you. I've been a fan for decades now. Appreciate that opportunity to work with you as well. Sarina Sharp: Time flies. Ted Jacoby III: It sure does. So my first question is this. We've been talking for probably a couple of years now about the heifer replacements and the issue that's been evolving because many dairy farmers are breeding to beef simply because it's really hard to pass up $700 for a black cow rather than spending $3,000 to raise that calf into a heifer. But we're getting to the point where right now, for example, our traders that sell into the retail space, they're telling us demand's not that great. Those who are selling into the food service space are saying demand's not that great. Even our traders who export are telling us that Trump's rhetoric about tariffs is having an effect and making it difficult for us to export. In other words, demand is not that great on the horizon. Milk prices have come down. Class III price is probably going to be in the low 17s, maybe even into the high 16s in April. Are we getting to the point that we're starting to reach that line where dairy fa...

Dairy markets have taken a hit, with prices dropping across the board. Global economic uncertainty, tariff concerns, and weak demand have sent prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey tumbling. Our team tackles this and more, including: Pricing market predictions by dairy product category Tariffs and demand changes for U.S. products Global strategies to diversify supply chains and potential long-term impacts A potential shift on feed strategies and butterfat production Don't miss Ted Jacoby III and his expert panel's market discussion on what's going on and what may be coming next. Listen now to The Milk Check. Intro (with music) Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Co., where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome everybody to this month's version of The Milk Check. We're going to have an old-fashioned market discussion this month. Joining me today is Diego Carvallo, Director of Dry Ingredient Trading, especially on the international side, Greg Scheer, our Milk Marketing Manager, Jacob Menge, Vice President of Risk Management and Trade Strategy, Jared Miklasz, Sales Manager for the UFC Group, UF Milk and Cream, Joe Maixner, Director of Sales for Dairy Ingredients, and our Head Butter Trader, Josh White, our Vice President of Dairy Ingredients, and Miguel Aragon, Director of International Cheese Sales for Latin America. We're recording March 7th. Before we get started, let me say this: stick around, and don't go when we start to say goodbye. We're going to have a Marvel version of this podcast. After we said goodbye, we ended up having another 15 minutes of conversation. That may have been the best part of the whole conversation. Thanks everybody. Pretty much every single one of our markets has been down 20 to 30 cents in the last month, whether it's cheese, butter, non-fat, or whey. They all seem to be down 20 to 30 cents. Jake, is this a function of all of the tariff rhetoric coming out of the Trump administration, or is there something else going on? Jacob Menge: It's tough to separate the components of what are really driving these markets. I think tariff talk is absolutely part of it. In our last podcast we mentioned that uncertainty just weighs on markets, and there's more uncertainty today than I would say. There was the last podcast we did. The can has gotten kicked on the Mexico tariffs. I'm not sure how many times you can do that. This time when it happened, we saw it in equity markets, they didn't really pop like they did last time. The can got kicked on tariffs and equities were like, "Oh, okay, good." And when it happened yesterday, equities really just continued. They're crying lower. I'm only bringing that up because this is obviously a macroeconomic-driven dairy and equities market. Tariffs are part of the problem, but demand is just poor, according to everything we've seen. I think we'll hear from all of our product traders. That is certainly a factor, but it’s tough to blame anything. Ted Jacoby III: All right, well, let's start with butterfat today. I'm going to ask Jared and Joe together. The butter market is down 20 to 30 cents, and the cream market has been ugly since Christmas. What's going on on the demand side? Will this market stay this way all year, or is it a classic seasonal phenomenon? Because if there's one market that's probably the most insulated by the tariff talk, it would be the butter market, but butter, if anything, it almost feels like the heaviest of all of our markets right now. Jacob Menge: There are certainly quirks in each market. Dairy is not the only one seeing that, though, so if I had to lean one way or the other, yeah, there are macroeconomic influences in that demand piece. Jared Miklasz: Butterfat numbers are still hanging out somewhere in the 4.5% range compared to they're about a year over year 2.

Could tariffs put U.S. dairy exports at risk? In this episode of The Milk Check, special guest Mike McCully, President of The McCully Group, joins us to slice through the uncertainty in today’s dairy market. With trade tensions rising, could tariffs spook global buyers and push them toward alternative markets? We tackle some of the biggest questions facing dairy exporters today, including: Will tariffs curdle U.S. dairy exports? How are Mexico and China adjusting their buying strategies? What happens if tariffs push global buyers to look elsewhere? Listen now to the latest episode of The Milk Check to learn what's making waves in the dairy markets. Special Guest: Mike McCully, The McCully Group The Jacoby Panel: Diego Carvallo Jacob Menge Josh White Miguel Aragón Ted Jacoby, III Yara Morales Intro (with music) Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Company where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby, III: Welcome everybody to The Milk Check. So, today, our topic is going to be tariffs and how that might affect the U.S. dairy industry. We are recording this at 2:00 PM on Friday, February 7th, and we're going to talk about tariffs. Very likely, by the time you listen to this, it might all be irrelevant because who knows what the Trump administration is going to do next? Joining us today from our team is Miguel Aragon, our Director of Latin America's Sales for Cheese; Yara Morales, our Director of International Sales for Dairy Ingredients; Diego Carvallo, our Head of International Trading for our Dairy Ingredients Team; and Josh White, the Head of our Dairy Ingredients Team. Also, Brianne Breed is joining us, Head of our Cheese Team, and Jacob Menge, Head of our Risk Management and Trading Strategy. In addition to that illustrious group, we've got Mike McCully today, the founder of the McCulley Group, who is probably well known to most everybody in the dairy industry, at least in North America. Mike, thanks for joining us today. Mike McCully: You're very welcome. Happy to be here. Ted Jacoby, III: Mike, where do we stand right now on tariffs, what is the Trump administration doing, and what do we expect them to do next? Mike McCully: Had a very different conversation just a week ago when it looked like we were going to start on February 1st with tariffs on Mexico and Canada and retaliation from both countries and then China. But then, 48 to 72 hours, all of it got put on hold. The China retaliation was not on dairy; Canada and Mexico were on hold, so we've basically put all that tariff discussion over in a box, and we're just going to sit and wait here for a while. It's evolving each day. I read something yesterday or the day before: "The best tariffs are ones that are not used." Hopefully, that's where things go, but we'll just have to wait and see. Between this and H5N1 are two very unpredictable elements that we have to deal with in the dairy market, not just this week and next week, but probably for quite some time. Ted Jacoby, III: I couldn't agree with you more on that one. Jake, are we expecting anything to happen next in terms of tariffs? Jacob Menge: I think something is happening as we speak. Trump talked this morning about, in his own words, reciprocal tariffs on unnamed countries. That is new as of this Friday. Trump and tariffs seem to have a cadence of news on Friday, which Wall Street really loves. That's certainly new. I heard him mention Japan, I think today. So that is just wreaking havoc on equity markets and our markets. It's this unknown. Markets just hate the unknown, and much of it is hanging out there. Ted Jacoby, III: Where we stand regarding tariffs, we've postponed putting tariffs on Mexico and Canada or any, let's call it additional tariffs, the 25% tariffs, we've delayed for about a month, the possible 25% tariffs on those countries.

What will shape the dairy industry in 2025? Are you ready for it? In this episode of The Milk Check, we tackle the big question: what’s ahead for the dairy market in 2025? Spoiler alert: There’s no shortage of opinions—or uncertainty. 🐮 Heifer shortages vs. USDA projections: are we heading for a reality check? 🐄How will shifting cow populations reshape regional American production? 🧈 What is going on with butter? What's ahead for 2025? 🌏 Will export demand stabilize or shake up the market? Our team debates critical factors impacting the year ahead, including herd dynamics, regional processing capacity, and export competition. From farmers to Futures buyers, this is your go-to episode for staying ahead of the dairy market’s evolution. 🎙️ Listen now to gain insights about cows, cream, and commerce on this episode of The Milk Check. Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby and Company, where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby, III (T3): Welcome everybody to our January 2025 version of the Milk Check podcast. Today, we will do a bit of a market outlook for 2025, and I've got most of our traders on with me to share their thoughts on what might be coming down the pike. That would include my brother Gus, who runs our fluid group; Greg Scheer, who's head of our milk division; Joe Maixner, who handles our butter desk; Don Street, who does a lot of our analysis in terms of milk production, heifer supply numbers, cold storage, those kinds of things. Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients, runs our whey protein desk. Diego Carvallo, head of our international sales and runs our nonfat book; Jacob Menge, head of risk management; and Brianne Breed, head of our cheese group. Today, the group of us will get together and talk about the different segments of the industry and what we think is in store for us in 2025. So, thanks for listening. I think you'll enjoy this podcast. We have been talking a lot internally about the heifer supply and the fact that there just may not be enough heifers to grow the milk supply, but I was talking to someone whose opinion I think pretty highly of the other day, and he told me that he knows of 60,000 cows that are going on new dairy farms in 2025, which makes me wonder if what we've been talking about with the heifer supply is true or if maybe the numbers we're getting from the USDA are wrong. Do you think the cows are really going to be out there? Do you think we'll be able to grow our milk supply in 2025, or do you think the shortage of heifers is real? Greg Scheer: Well, I think some areas may have a shortage of heifers. Obviously, some big farms have planned expansions that may not be counted in that number, but there are still tight supplies of heifers. Some of the bigger farms have their own replacements available. So, I do think it'll limit how much milk production can grow. Gus Jacoby: Yeah, it’s hard to argue with what Greg just said. I mean, the economics are there for Garmin to continue to go to beef, and therefore, we don't foresee the heifer supply growing, only shortening. Now, that doesn't mean that some larger farms that have some affiliations with calf ranches can't manage their heifer supplies as they need to grow into some new farms or current farms that require more production for new plant capacity coming on in their regions, but I don't think there's any doubt that we're going to have a limiting factor on cows that puts a lid on it. To be clear, Teddy, we had a big influx of cows in the middle of the year when some new capacity came on in the southwest. We only ended the year with 20,000 cows up, including over 300,000 fewer cows culled. So, to keep the cow numbers relatively the same, we must continue culling fewer cows. We're just going to find out whether that's something we can get away with for the foreseeable future because the herd will...

Where is the global dairy industry headed? In this episode of The Milk Check, we’re joined by Andy Powers, vice president of technical services at the American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI), alongside members of the Jacoby team, to explore the future of dairy. Together, we tackle emerging trends, market forces, and opportunities for dairy proteins, fats, and other dairy products in the next 5 to 10 years. Emerging trends: The role of GLP-1 drugs in driving future global demand Dairy vs. plant proteins: How the structure of dairy and plant proteins differ and what that means for nutrition and health The rise of butterfat: U.S. butterfat and the role of exports in future consumption Cheese’s global opportunity: How cheese production is ramping up to meet international demand Dairy co-products: Innovations in whey protein, lactose, and milk protein isolates to address shifting market needs From health-conscious consumers to industrial applications, we examine how dairy is evolving to stay competitive. Plus, check out The ADPI 2023 ADPI Dairy Products Utilization & Production Trends report here and the ADPI Ingredient Resource Center here. Don’t miss this comprehensive look at the future of dairy with insights from Andy and the Jacoby team, including Ted Jacoby, III, CEO & President, cheese, butter & dry ingredients; Josh White, vice president, dairy ingredients; Diego Carvallo, director of dry dairy ingredient trading, and Tristan Suellentrop, sales associate, Into (with music): Welcome to the Milk Check, a podcast from TC Jacob and Company, where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby, III (T3): Hello, everyone, and welcome to this month's episode of the Milk Check. Today, we are excited to have Andy Powers, vice president of technical services for the American Dairy Products Institute, joining us. Joining us as well, we have some of our usual suspects. Josh White, vice president of Dairy Ingredients, Diego Carvallo, our Director of International Sales for Dairy Ingredients, and Tristan Suellentrop, our sales associate and resident 20-something on our sales team. Guys, thank you, and Andy, excited to have you with us. Thanks for joining us. Our topic today is: what's the future of dairy? Where do we think demand is going to grow globally in the dairy industry? What are the components that this industry is going to see the greatest demand and opportunity for as we look out over the next 5 to 10 years? Andy, I'll start by saying we just recently had a five 10 year vision conversation within our organization, and one of the things that we spent a lot of time talking about was how dairy proteins, specifically as you look at the way the developing countries and the way their diets are changing and growing and developing when you look at the aging populations of many parts of the world when you look at the addition of medicines like Ozempic and Wegovy, protein is just going to become a bigger and a bigger part of the nutritional profile of what human beings eat. I've got two boys in their twenties, and they are much healthier eaters than I ever was when I was in my twenties. That means they're consuming a lot more dairy protein. Andy Powers: Right. T3: What are your thoughts, and where do you think dairy proteins fit in that space? Andy Powers: First and foremost, because I've worked for the American Dairy Products Institute, you're going to hear me talk about dairy. I drank the Kool-Aid a number of years ago. I believe in dairy's value proposition, and I believe in its strengths in terms of nutrient density and complete nutrition. You talked about some of the driving forces that are going to influence demand for dairy in the future. We've got population growth as the baseline talked about an aging population. I think that's significant. The ongoing current modernization or GDP growth meaning that people can transition from the most...

Today’s dairy market is global. In our latest episode of The Milk Check, we dive into the New Zealand and Oceania markets to understand how they may impact the U.S. dairy market. Join Jacoby and our two special guests Jo Bills, ag market analyst and director of global Insights at Ever.Ag, and Steve Spencer, managing Director at Ever.Ag as we dive into dairy. Tight global supplies of skim milk powder and strong demand will likely keep prices high through 2025 New cheese plants in the U.S. market increase Class III supply and may drive cheese prices down and limit powder output, tightening global powder supply New Zealand enjoys tariff-free access to the Chinese market, but China's economic woes have reduced dairy demand Lower Chinese demand pushed New Zealand to focus on skim milk powder, butterfat, and cheese And lots more information on the global dairy market and our predictions 2025. We have a positive outlook for dairy in 2025, but cheese may be our wild card. Get the market scoop from the Jacoby team, including Ted Jacoby, III, CEO & President, Cheese, Butter & Dry Ingredients; Josh White, Vice President, Dairy Ingredients; and Diego Carvallo, Director of Dry Dairy Ingredient Trading. Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a T.C. Jacoby & Company podcast where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby, III (T3) Hello, everybody, and welcome to The Milk Check. This month, we are excited to welcome special guests Joanne Bills and Steve Spencer from Freshagenda to share their thoughts on milk production and dairy demand in Asia, Oceania, and internationally for 2025. Joining us from the Jacoby team are Josh White and Diego Carvallo from our dairy ingredients team. Welcome, everybody, and thank you for joining us today. Steve Spencer: Thank you, Ted. It's great to be here. We enjoy these. We've done a few of these, so it's always good fun. T3: We're about to enter year two of China's tariff changes regarding New Zealand dairy products and how they are imported into China. For our audience, many of whom are dairy farmers here in the U.S., why don't you give us a quick overview of those changes? Then, we can discuss what that has meant for dairy markets in that region and how it affects dairy prices. Steve: In basic terms, New Zealand has tariff-free access to the Chinese market. That was preset for an extended period. They were on a slow rundown of tariffs over a long haul. A few years before that was due, they had a review, and it seemed to be that that was just a little period to push it out a bit longer, and that's in the rearview now. So, we're in a very tariff-free environment for New Zealand exports, which you'd think has freed them up to go wild. The only trouble is China's not a market that is allowing many people to go wild right now because that's come at the same time as China hitting a phase of the second wave after Covid; the second wave lockdowns were much harsher, much longer, much more damaging to the economy and so that's crippled demand for dairy in many parts of the market because spending, consumer spending has been depressed and many things are contributing to that right now and that's still a happening thing. So, that has freed New Zealand up to grow its share of the market in skim milk, powder, cheese, and butterfat and they've certainly done that at a time when the import volumes are a lot lower. So, we've got to sit back and look at the overall trends in China. We think they're just off the bottom regarding those import trends, but New Zealand has certainly picked up share, and their exports to China are falling. You could take the story of product by product because the products that China isn't producing or doesn't produce, skim milk, powder, butterfat, cheese, a small production of those, really the trade is probably following the pattern of demand we're seeing in that market.

As summer fades, we're moving into peak demand season for the U.S. dairy market. Keep on top of shifting trends with The Milk Check. Guest host Josh White and a panel of industry experts discuss the latest trends and projections for U.S. dairy as we approach this critical period. 💸 Blue tongue’s impact on European milk production.🧈 Butterfat is bucking the trend with a strong inventory.🍦 Cream prices have softened after a brief surge in the last few weeks.🧀 Cheese markets set record-high prices this year, but is the tide turning?🐄 Milk powder prices are on the rise as we head into peak demand season. Plus, we’ll look ahead to 2025: What impact will the expanded cheese production capacity have on milk prices in the second half of the year? Get the market scoop from Josh White and his team, including Diego Carvallo, director of dry dairy ingredient trading; Greg Scheer, manager of milk marketing; Jacob Menge, vice president of risk management & trade strategy; and Joe Maixner, national sales manager of dairy ingredients. Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a TC Jacoby and Company podcast where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Josh White: Hey, everyone. Welcome to The Milk Check. Today is Friday, September 20th. I am Josh White, filling in for Ted this week. We've entered that time of year when producers or processors, customers alike, we all put that summer fun behind us here in the Northern Hemisphere and focus a lot more attention on what's happening in the market today, closing out the year and thinking about what could influence the next calendar year. As a result, we think it's a great time to have what TC would call a good old classic market discussion. Today, I'm joined by most of our traders here at TC Jacoby and Company, and I'll lead that discussion in Ted's absence. So I'll do my best Ted impression and say, "Hey guys, where do we start?" Does anybody have a thought as to what we should cover at the beginning? I personally think it all starts with milk. Greg, I would love your opinion as to what's happening today and the market as it relates to milk moving across the country and what your thoughts are looking ahead. Greg Scheer: Thanks, Josh. Yes, we've seen tighter spot markets this summer and this spring compared to previous years. We have tighter milk supplies. We have a lack of replacement heifers. We have very expensive replacement cows. Producers have been holding back from culling as heavily as they usually do. We just don't have the replacements to increase milk supply. So we have firm spot markets. We've seen that this summer. We expect to see that this fall, but we are setting up for 2025 to be a tighter year for milk supplies because of those reasons. Now, that could be mitigated some. I've heard of very good harvests being put up, good quality, cheap feed, and producers will be able to feed those cows maybe a little better, but the fact of the matter is it's going to be hard to get cow numbers up. They'll probably decline, and the cost of any kind of replacement will be high. Josh: So Greg, you're talking through those dynamics and that doesn't take into account what the industry has discussed a lot about all these new plants coming on a new capacity. We've got another plant firing up any day now, another large one in the southwest that will likely start early in 2025, and a few plant expansions in the upper Midwest. How do you think that that influences this tightening milk dynamic as we go into next year? Greg: It will make the milk competition just that much stronger. For the producer, it should help get higher premiums for milk in those competition areas. Plants will have to plan ahead, and even in some regions where milk's traditionally been very long and can get all the milk they want, it will be harder next year. It's just more competition. It will maybe pull some milk from other plants, and some older,

In today’s episode of The Milk Check, we’re joined by Tim the Dairy Farmer, a farmer, speaker and ag comedian. If you think dairy farming is no laughing matter, then you haven’t met Tim. Tune in for a special episode of the podcast, where Tim and the Jacoby team discuss: Strong harvest likely leading to lower feed prices Could dairy heifer prices rival Black Angus prices in the near(ish) future? Could the milk price reach $30? Things you should never plan near the cow pasture Plus, learn how Tim got into the comedy biz and how he silences the hecklers. Don’t miss this episode of The Milk Check with Tim the Dairy Farmer. Intro audio (with music): Welcome to the Milk Check, a TC Jacoby & Co podcast where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby II (T3): Welcome, everybody, to the Milk Check. This month we've got a very special episode, we have a special guest, Tim the Dairy Farmer is with us today. Tim is going to ask us what we think is going on with these dairy markets, and we're going to do our best to give him an answer, and we'll see where the conversation goes from there. Tim, why don't you tell us a little bit about yourself? Tim the Dairy Farmer: I've been in the dairy business for 30-something years, taken my licks, started doing standup comedy as Tim the Dairy Farmer about 22 years ago, and I speak at agriculture events. I'm a standup comedian, I'm not a motivational speaker. I'm horrible at marketing myself there, Ted. So basically I'm a dairy farmer that does standup comedy, and they hire me to come to meetings, to wake up after guys like you talk. And here's another thing, this podcast is called the Milk Check, correct? T3: Yes. Tim: All right. This is how you know I'm a dairy farmer, y'all call it the Milk Check, I'm just happy my last milk check had a comma. T3: Well, that's why we call it the Milk Check, because we want to talk a little bit about markets and what's affected dairy farmers' milk checks. Hopefully most dairy farmers do have a comma right now because prices are halfway decent. But before we go to markets, Tim, I've got to ask, tell me about one of the most interesting agricultural events that you participated in. I'd love to hear a good story. Tim: Oh, man. I've got so many. It's not the good ones that you remember, it's the horrible ones. There's three shows, there's the one you planned to do, the one you do, and the one you wish on the drive home that you would have done. I've had all kinds of stuff go wrong. No, for the most part they're always fun. T3: All right. Josh White: So Tim, how often are you on the farm versus having to hit the road for comedy? Tim: I probably go off and do 30, 35 shows a year. Normally I fly out the night before and I'm back the day after. My brother's always been my biggest supporter, he covers while I'm gone. I couldn't have made it this far doing comedy without my brother's support, because we're partners in the dairy and he's always covered for me when I'm gone. T3: Where is the dairy located, Tim? Tim: Central Florida. We're actually over between Fort Myers and Tampa, where all the elderly people go to pass away, you take a right and that's where we're at. T3: When that hurricane came through Fort Myers last year, that affect you guys at all? Tim: No, it affected a few of my buddies. Nobody lost any cows, but barns were just crinkled up like aluminum foil and tossed around. I think over the years I've lost three barns to hurricanes. T3: Oh, really? Tim: Yeah. They tell you how it's rated for 80 mile an hour or whatever, and then when the tornado or the hurricane comes through it wads it up like a piece of paper and chucks it 100 yards. You're like, "Well, that wasn't rated right." Anyway. Go ahead, this is your podcast. T3: Tim, if you have a question to get the market discussion started, why don't you go ahead and shoot?

Today, we share Part 2 of a special two-part episode celebrating TC Jacoby & Co’s 75th anniversary. We’ll talk about the milk industry from the '90s to the dairy world of the future. Join Ted Jacoby II, Gus Jacoby, and Ted Jacoby III for the conclusion of our special 2-part episode as we discuss: The first TC Jacoby & Co. cheese desk Our projection for future growth in U.S. cheese exports Our forecast for the future of the global dairy industry We love the dairy industry and look forward to what the future will bring. So, raise your glass of milk, and let’s celebrate TC Jacoby’s 75 wonderful years in the U.S. dairy industry. Intro audio (with music): Welcome to the Milk Check, a TC Jacoby & Co podcast where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III (T3): Hello, everyone, and welcome to The Milk Check. Today, we have a special edition of our monthly podcast because this year, 2024, TC Jacoby & Co celebrates 75 years of serving the dairy industry. In honor of this special anniversary, we are publishing a two-episode edition where, in the first part, my father, my brother Gus, and I discuss and – in my father's case – tell tales of the first 50 years of our history. In part two, we share the more recent 25 years as well as our thoughts on what the future of the industry may hold. Welcome to part two. There are a lot of other things that were going on in the 90s. I mean, that all started in the 90s. We started our office in Mexico in the 90s. When I came to work for TC Jacoby & Co. in 1996, I spent about four or five months in St. Louis, and then I moved down to Mexico to help us start that office. That was quite the experience, living for a year in Mexico. Ironically, trying to move cheese to Mexico led me back to the States, and starting to sell it in the States. Eventually, I worked with risk management. At the time, we were moving nonfat dry milk into Mexico. We had a company in Mexico then, so we were TC Jacoby & Co in the U.S. selling to TC Jacoby & Co in Mexico. We were warehousing the product in a warehouse in Mexico, selling whey powder, nonfat dry milk, and various other powders to multiple distributors in the area, but then also moving a little bit of cheese. I had one of my suppliers, the cheddar cheese, cancel on me, and so I was calling around looking for cheddar cheese, and another supplier said, “Not only do I have a load of cheddar for you to ship to Mexico, but I also have about 50 other loads of cheese. You should call the guy who canceled on you and see if he needs any extra.” Next thing I know, I'm moving more cheese back and forth in the U.S. than I'm moving to Mexico. And that was when I called you and said, “Dad, I think I'm going to move back to the States, and I'm going to start up a cheese desk.” That was in 1997, and that's how we started trading cheese. We went through the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s, and just about everything you, Uncle Bill, and Uncle Tom moved was mainly fluid. Then, in the 90s, we started moving powder. Bill, I think in the 80s, had begun moving powder and butter in the U.S. Ted Jacoby II (T2): Billy used to move a lot of cream from California to the Midwest. Gus Jacoby: Well, remember that was a big time for us because his development of California and the cost to move fluid product at that time was economically feasible in making cream and condensed products supplied by the California Central Valley and delivered on an annualized contractual basis to places as far as the upper Midwest and even into the Mideastern U.S. at time. Understanding the CDFA and the arbitrage between that and the Federal Orders was another thing we took advantage of for a few decades. So that was a big and successful time for us from a trading standpoint of fluid products. T3: And then he was moving non-fat to many of the mozzarella guys in the Midwest when the mozzarella industry was in its infancy; that was when ...

A lot has changed in the dairy industry in the 75 years since Ted Jacoby, Sr. founded TC Jacoby & Company in 1949. Today, we share Part 1 of a special two-part episode celebrating TC Jacoby & Co’s 75 wonderful years in the U.S. dairy industry. From picking up 10-gallon milk cans on the farm in the 40s to shipping internationally, we’ve come a long way. Join Ted Jacoby II, Gus Jacoby, and Ted Jacoby III for part 1 of a special 2-part episode as we discuss: How tank trucks fundamentally changed the U.S. milk supply Consolidation in the dairy industry When computers came for milk Plus, Ted Jacoby II shares his eyewitness account of the introduction of ultrafiltration (UF) milk. It all began with a coffee break. Join us for a walk down the milk memory lane in our 75th-anniversary episode, Part 1: Dive into our history. Ted Jacoby III (T3): Welcome and enjoy the show. Episode Intro: Welcome to the Milk Check, a podcast from TC Jacob and Company, where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. T3: Hello, everybody, and welcome to the Mouth Check. Today, we have a special edition of our monthly podcast because this year, 2024, TC Jacob and Company celebrates 75 years of servicing the dairy industry. In honor of this special anniversary, we are publishing a two-episode edition where, in the first part, my father, my brother Gus, and I discuss and, in my father's case, share tales of the first 50 years of our history. In part two, we share the more recent 25 years of our history and our thoughts on the future of this great industry we work in. Dad, I'll ask you: when Grandpa started the company in 1949, we still picked up milk in 10-gallon milk cans on the farm. So what was it like those first 10, 15 years of the company Ted Jacoby II (T2): When my dad, your grandfather, got out of the Navy in 1945, I think he and two other fellas bought a dairy in Highland, Illinois, and you're right, they had milk coming into that dairy in cans. He and his partners operated that dairy for a couple of years. They sold the dairy to Midwest dairies. Midwest Dairies was then taken over by a company called City Corp. And City Corp, and Midwest Dairies had consolidated almost all the dairies in southern Illinois. All these dairies were consolidated, then spun off to Prairie Farms, and Fletcher Gorley took over Prairie Farms and turned them into one of the premier co-ops in the United States. After they sold the dairy, he booked office space in St. Louis on the ninth floor of what was the commerce building. So he would act as a broker of barrels of this and drums of that and set up shop as a middleman for mostly dairy ingredients. There was a relationship that developed between us and Prairie Farms that has extended over all these years. We know each other quite well. The relationship has been strong for a long, long time. In the 40 years between the sixties and the nineties, pardon me, 30 years, you had several things occur. First of all, the consolidation people were picking up milk and bringing it to receiving stations, and then you could go from the receiving station to your regular market, or you could go somewhere else. There were receiving stations, called bump overs, which would consolidate the milk from many small farms and put it in a position to take it somewhere. You didn't have any dairies that shipped truckload quantities in the nineties in the Midwest. And then gradually, over that period of 30 years, you had large dairies that shipped truckload quantities, and that all occurred in the nineties and two thousand. T3: Once those bulk tank trucks became common, when we started seeing milk move to the southeast in the fall when milk got tight, T2: When tank trucks came in, it was about 1953 to 55, somewhere in that area, and the tank trucks were relatively small. 3,500 gallons was a big truck in those days, and when it became practical to move milk,

The 2024 ADPI/ABI Annual Conference starts next week and will likely move the dairy markets. What does Jacoby predict for dairy production and demand for 2024? Join Ted Jacoby III and our guests Jacob Menge, Vice President of Risk Management and Trade Strategy; Joshua White, Vice President of Dairy Ingredients; Diego Carvallo, Director of Dry Dairy Ingredient Trading; Gus Jacoby, President of Fluid Dairy Ingredients and Dairy Support; Joe Maixner, National Sales Manager of Dairy Ingredients; and Ted Jacoby Jr. We discuss: Jacoby’s predictions vs. results for 2024 YTD Factors impacting prices for Q3 and Q4 Continued downward pressure on milk production and lackluster fluid milk demand The impact of the Avian Flu on dairy production Plus, is whey the new canary in the coal mine? Find out more on today's episode of The Milk Check. Ted Jacoby III (T3): Hello, everybody, and welcome to the Milk Check. It's April 22nd, a week before the ADPI meeting in Chicago. And I thought this timing would be right for us to have a market discussion going into an annual conference that does have a tendency to be a bit of a market mover. Today with me, I have Jacob Menge, our head of trading strategy and risk management, Joshua White, head of our dairy ingredients group, Diego Carvallo, our head trader for non-fat, dry milk and other dairy powders, Gus Jacoby, head of our... President of our fluid division, milk cream, UF milk. Joe Maixner, head of our butter trading, and my dad, of course, joining us to give his thoughts on these markets. Welcome, everybody, and let's get to it. I was looking at our markets this morning, getting ready for this podcast and I kept asking myself the question, where did we think we'd be this week when we started the first week in January. And I don't think in any of our markets we really were thinking that we'd be dealing with what we're dealing with right now. So, I think, maybe, what we'll do is we'll start with cheese. Jake, when we were entering the year, if I remember correctly, we were pretty bearish the cheese market, and if we were talking about what we thought the second quarter was going to bring in cheese, I didn't think it was a market that was going to be up 8 cents today and in the seventies, and probably, going higher over the rest of the week. So, what do you think is going on in cheese, and compare and contrast what we thought would happen at the beginning of the year and what we're seeing right now? Jacob Menge: I would say cheese has probably been the most in line with our expectations of all our commodities from where we started the year. We were bearish, and I would argue we saw that bearishness, right? I mean, we were in the 140s for a while in both blocks and barrels, and so, I think, yeah, we've seen a pretty good push the past week or two. But otherwise, I think cheese, more or less, went in line with what we expected. Demand's been off a little bit. We've seen exports numbers are starting to look pretty good, but in general, sluggish has been what it's felt like for most of the year up until the past few weeks. I'd say cheese kind of went along with what we expected, and it's been this cycle that we've seen for about a year now, right? We get a good push higher. Last year in July, we saw a pretty good push up into, I think, the upper 180s, and then, we seemed to kind of kill demand [inaudible 00:02:57] we've been getting to those levels. And then, we've fallen into the 130s, 140s, low 150s, that generates some more demand, and we yo-yo from there. So, yeah, I wouldn't say anything too crazy from expectations on the cheese side. Joshua White: You asked at the beginning of the year, would we have expected prices in our market conditions to be where they're at now on April 22nd? And I just did a quick look back right when you asked that, just to see what our commercial meeting notes and what our dialog and discussion are.

This is the first podcast episode in our quarterly Understanding Export series. Today's special guest is Fernando Anaya, Director General at DILAC. DILAC offers powdered dairy products and has a 27-year track record within the Mexican dairy industry. Our Jacoby team includes Ted Jacoby, President; Yara Morales, Director of Sales for Mexico and Latin America; and Diego Carvallo, Director of Dry Dairy Ingredient Trading at T.C. Jacoby and Company, Inc. Today's episode discusses the Mexican consumer market for dairy products. Fernando shares his take on how drought, exchange rates, and political waves will affect Mexico's milk importers in 2024. How has the extreme drought in Mexico impacted domestic milk and cheese production and consumer demand? Inflation has increased dairy prices, but could a strong peso offset this challenge for Mexican importers? The Mexican government, one of the largest Mexican milk powder importers, announced that it will not import any milk powder this year. How will this big player impact the Mexican milk import market? Mexican presidential elections take place this summer. Is this likely to affect milk imports? This plus what importers should know about changes in milk import procedures and Fernando's opinion on the most important factor for milk imports in Mexico—dive in with us on today's Milk Check. T3: Welcome to this month's episode of The Milk Check. I'm Ted Jacoby, president of T.C. Jacoby & Company. Today, we are joined by Yara Morales, sales director for Mexico and Latin America; Diego Carvallo, dairy ingredient trading director; and special guest Fernando Anaya, director general for DLAC. DLAC is a very good customer of ours in Mexico, and we're excited to have him. Fernando, welcome, and thank you for joining us today. Fernando Anaya: Ted, thanks for the invitation. I'm really glad to be with you and your team. T3: This episode will be released in Spanish and English, the first in our Understanding Export series, which we will publish quarterly. Today, my first question, Fernando, to you, is when we think about the Mexican dairy market and how much dairy Mexico imports, what is the number one thing exporters to Mexico must understand about the Mexican consumer? Obviously, one of them is price, but beyond price, what's important to the consumer in Mexico? Fernando: Okay. Well, Ted, I think that's a really good question. Well, just to have a rough number of the imports into Mexico, I will say that 15% of our needs have to be imported every year, and that really is not changing a lot. I think that's the same number from maybe ten years into now. So, what do the exporters have to be aware of to be in the Mexican market? The number one for sure will be price, the second will be price, and the third will be price. So that's something that I guess you can agree on that. Of course, Mexican customers will always look to have a better price, but again, it's not the only thing they are looking for. There are some things that the exporter has to be aware of, and one of them will be regulations. For the past two or three years, Mexico has been entering into new regulations. For example, for non-fat, there's this new regulation, the NOM-222, and I know there have been a lot of challenges for the exporters because they must be sure they will be ready to fulfill this regulation. It's not that hard, but again, that's something that the exporters, mainly in the US, had to make some changes in their COAs, registering some labs to fulfill these regulations. So again, that's something that the exporters into Mexico must be aware of. The other thing is logistics. The way that Mexican customers purchase mainly non-fat food is changing. Right now, the Mexicans are looking for the product to be available in the customs agent warehouses. Why? Because it's very quick to get the product into Mexico. Let's think maybe ten years ago,