The Mike Hosking Breakfast

We have good news on housing.  1) It's still a buyers' market.  2) A good chunk of the buyers are first timers.  It’s the debate we should at least acknowledge has been, for now, partially solved.  Not long back we were where Australia currently is; young people couldn't afford a house and, with plenty of emotion, it was suggested they never would.  That wasn’t actually factually true then and it most certainly isn't now.  What is helping is two things:  1) The slow rise of prices as we move out of the recessions and into recovery. The capacity for the wider economy to grow without major house price increases is actually a good debate, or question, but one for another day.  2) Lending. There is a lot of it for first timers.  Money attached to small deposits is booming. The reason that is happening is because the Reserve Bank loosened the debt-to-income rules as well as the LVR's.  So, with less than 20% you can get into a home.  Australia has a better system. The Government backs some people into homes with 5%. It's income related and in Australia there is an attached argument around price increases, given they aren't building houses and immigration is booming.  But here we don’t have those problems, sadly. But of the two problems young people face (one being the deposit and the other being the price of a house and therefore the mortgage) it’s the deposit that is the biggest hurdle.  20% of $800,000 grand is $160,000. Saving that sort of money is ruinous to dreams, so the sooner we get past that as a hurdle the better.  A mortgage can be managed. But what is most important about all of this is the indisputable truth that housing is a Kiwi dream, if not an obsession. A house is a retirement plan and the arguments around putting your money elsewhere and spreading the basket falls largely, rightly or wrongly, on deaf ears.  If I had my way 5% would be the key, 10% max. If young people have been locked out of housing, it's not the price that’s been the killer, it's been the deposit.  The Reserve Bank rules have been, yet again, another of their mistakes. These news stats are hopefully partial rectification. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    The Warriors: 8/10  Come on! Let's start with the good news – we're one from one. A thrashing against a good side and another home game tonight.    Mariameno Kapa-Kingi: 6/10  She's back. Whether she likes being back is another thing, but good on her for fighting her corner and exposing her crappy little party.    The Covid report: 6/10  Told us what we already knew and changes nothing. Listen to Hipkins. You reckon he knows how to say sorry?    Oil: 1/10  If you ever wanted proof over how far off we are in renewables, check our reaction to $120 a barrel.    Trump: 2/10  It's over, it's not over, we need to win more, we've only just got started, I could end it today, I could end it in an hour. He redefines mental.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

My observations on week two of the war.  I'm as convinced as ever I was that this thing is over in the four week-ish window they said it would be.  If true, it means we should not have spent the week guessing when it will be over because we have already been told.  If I worry about anything it's miscalculation. The trouble with the miscalculation is we don’t really know if it is or not because most of what we hear is from the President and his Secretary of War, both of whom are cartoonish in their persona.  To say out loud he was surprised at the size of the Iranian navy is shocking. To say out loud, and both have, that they were surprised Arab states got attacked is even more shocking.  But then this was a bloke yesterday travelling through middle America telling the crowds at a rally that prices were coming down, so my faint hope is even though he is completely detached from reality, the people in the uniforms aren't.  I have no doubt Iran is fairly flattened and their ability to do a lot going forward that would bother the Western world is now severely limited.  But I also know oil isn't flowing and my equal bet is more people are worried about oil than they are about Iran.  That’s why this war, polls show, has no buy-in. We don’t care and we never did. Mind you, we may have been saved from ourselves of course because we would care if the Iranians ever really got nuclear weapons.  So if this thing ends within a month or so and oil is back to $68 a barrel, all in all, it will have been worth it.  It also shows beyond a shadow of doubt that renewables are nowhere near the answer, given when the Strait of Hormuz got closed, we didn’t all turn on our windmills.  But at the end of week two what I know is this: the economy is everything.  Economics is everything and this war will end not because Iran has been beaten, but because oil is king, petrol drives economies and Americans are voting later this year. And if they can't afford the bills because their President got sucked in by Israel, he's toast.  And as mad as Trump is, he's no idiot. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Members of the International Energy Agency have unanimously agree to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves to help combat steep oil prices arising from the conflict in the Middle East.  It equates to about four-days' worth and is the largest ever release of reserves in the agency's history.  The US is releasing 172 million barrels from their Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking the move will result in a 40% decrease in the US’ oil backstop.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's Friday, which means Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson are back with Mike Hosking to Wrap the Week that Was. With the ongoing uncertainty surrounding oil prices, the Government is considering heading back to the Muldoon-era and instituting car-less days if all else fails, so Tim, Kate, and Mike took a look back at what those days were like. And should you watch something just to see how bad it is? Mike is gobsmacked the Melania documentary was ever made, and thinks everyone needs to watch it. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An energy industry lobby group is warning the decline in domestic gas supply is a sign of a shrinking economy.  PwC research —commissioned by Gas Industry Co— suggests the gas market must contract sharply as domestic supply falls, potentially leading to business closures, job losses, and higher energy costs.  The research assumes the Maui field will stop producing in 2027.  Energy Resources Aotearoa Chief Executive John Carnegie told Mike Hosking modelling suggests the economic impact will be significant.  He says a report for MBIE found that without LNG terminals and with the loss of domestic supply, New Zealand's GDP will be about 0.1% lower in 2035.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 13th of March, is the Government really considering car-less days because of the fuel instability? What are the other options? Nicola Willis discussed the details.  Richie Barnett unpacked the Warriors' performance against the Roosters and looked ahead to tonight’s clash against the Raiders.  And Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson talked the days of car-less cars, the Melania documentary, and whether you should watch something just to see how bad it is as they Wrapped the Week.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Warriors are in for a challenge as they aim to go two for two in the NRL season.   They stunned the Roosters in their opening clash, claiming victory 42-18 at Mt Smart Stadium.   The Warriors are back at Mount Smart tonight, this time for a clash against the Raiders.  Former Kiwis Captain Richie Barnett told Mike Hosking the Roosters were ill-disciplined – they didn’t give respect to the Warriors, and they got caned in all areas of the game.  But the Raiders are a different side, and he says their ruck speed is the best in the game – if you control that, you control the game.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A massive new power user could put extra pressure on the South Island’s electricity system.  Datagrid has just received resource consent for a $3 billion, 78 thousand square metre data centre north of Invercargill.  About 1,200 jobs will work on the construction and about 50 people will staff the facility.  It will be the second-largest power user in the country behind the nearby Tiwai Aluminium Smelter.  Auckland University computer science lecturer Ulrich Speidel told Mike Hosking it's going to shift the power balance in the South Island quite a bit.  He says in terms of power use, that’s about 70% of what Christchurch consumes, and you can’t just add major power users without eventually running into generation limits.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A tourism surge is putting pressure on Christchurch’s hotel capacity.  Hotels reached 96.4% occupancy last month – the highest February in a decade, and well above the national average.  ChristchurchNZ credits events like the Electric Avenue music festival and increased airline capacity.  Head of Destination Kath Low told Mike Hosking more hotels are needed, with several developments in the pipeline.  She says a Sheraton Hotel is opening next year in the former Noah's Hotel building, which will add 240 rooms.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government admits its walking a fine line between being prepared and causing panic.  It's considering a raft of possible measures like car-less days, limits on petrol sales, and the introduction of fuel coupons if oil prices continue to rise.  Iran's threatening to keep the critical Strait of Hormuz closed for the foreseeable future.  Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking New Zealand's still in a good place right now, with a secure 50-day fuel supply.  She says they're proactive in case the situation changes, further down the track.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Question six, the House of Parliament Question Time.   Winston Peters to Simeon Brown. The mandate for 12 to 17 year olds and the double dose of the vaccine – seek it out, it’s a fascinating exchange.  Tuesday, Chris Hipkins and Ayesha Verral denied the concerns raised by the Ministry of Health ever reached their desks.  Peters presented evidence it did, and even after it did it took a very long time for anything to be done about it.  So a couple of issues out of that. Firstly, it is potentially a misleading of the House – a very serious issue. More importantly, a misleading of us.  There is little more egregious for a number of New Zealanders out of the Covid experience than the vaccine issue.  Sadly, a lot of the noise around it was tin hat material driven by Ouija board thinking, but some of it, not much, but some of it was real.  The risks became a lightning rod. All vaccines carry risk, but concerns were raised about rushed development. And then making that risk higher, mandating of that rushed development into the arms of New Zealanders.  Also making this complicated is the line between politics and health, politics and expertise.  The government has a right to ignore advice – they do it all the time. But can you ignore health advice – an area you are not expert in?  Part of what Peters raised, that may well be a longer term issue, is legal. Is there a case to be heard, whereby a government knew of a problem around a vaccine and yet did nothing with that knowledge until later. Meantime any number of young people were exposed to a risk they didn’t have to be.  Associated with the stance is the broader, but not legal aspect of this. If that is the sort of approach a government can take, then how does that dovetail with the overarching view that governments want vaccine rates in the high 90s – in other words, they want public trust.  A lot of the Covid response and report is about interpretation and ideology. This appears much more specific, worrying, and potentially dishonest. Watch this space. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Italy’s Prime Minister has joined other EU leaders in criticising the US-Israeli war on Iran.  They’ve reportedly bombed nearly ten thousand civilian sites, killing well over a thousand in Iran and hundreds more in Lebanon.  Giorgia Meloni described the conflict as part of a growing and dangerous trend of interventions that fall “outside the scope of international law”.  Italy Correspondent Jo McKenna told Mike Hosking Meloni is walking a tightrope between not wanting to be too openly critical of Donald Trump, but also being mindful of the polls.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After a successful summer circuit in New Zealand, Kiwi shot-putter Tom Walsh is gearing up for a year of international competitions.  The Diamond League is only a few weeks away and the Commonwealth Games are set for July through to August in Glasgow.  But Walsh told Mike Hosking that despite performing well over the summer, his results weren’t quite what he wanted them to be, distance-wise.  “This is kind of the part where you’ve really got to trust what you’re doing,” Walsh said.  “Sometimes you’ve kind of got to, y’know, take a few hits early season to help you line up later in the season when, when things really count.”  “The Commonwealth Games is what we’re really working towards, and sometimes you’ve got to step back, and remind yourself of that.”   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 12th of March, the Government is offering a pay rise to non-union primary teachers as the union’s negotiations continue.   Air NZ CEO Nikhil Ravishankar discussed the price hikes and how long they’ll last, fuel issues, and whether the airline is panicking or not.   Kiwi shot-putter Tom Walsh is back after dominating the summer circuit in New Zealand and talks his KPIs and prep ahead of the Diamond League season and the Commonwealth Games.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The exercise industry is making gains.  New data shows the industry is defying economic headwinds, with 96% of adults —around 2.67 million people— exercising.  Nearly a million are regularly using structured facilities like gyms and studios, making up 26% of adults – up from 22% in 2024.  Exercise NZ CEO Richard Beddie told Mike Hosking whereas traditional sport is on a decline worldwide, recreational fitness such as the gym, dance, and martial arts are growing.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Keeping the Marsden Point refinery open would not have helped the current fuel supply situation, as the crude oil it refined would have come from the same choke points as overseas refineries, a senior economic advisor says.  It follows Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones’ statement yesterday that the closure of Marsden Point under Labour had “fatally wounded” New Zealand’s fuel security.  But according to a 2025 fuel security study for the Government, keeping the privately-owned Marsden Point open would have been the mostly costly resilience option, and would only have bought a little more resilience, Heuser Whittington partner Andreas Heuser told Mike Hosking this morning.  “There are much better resilience options such as increasing the tankage in New Zealand, and our transition to EVs will also help us.”  Heuser was confident New Zealand currently had the right settings in place, although it may need to look at updating the minimum stockholding requirements for diesel.  However, if the situation became more serious and led to rationing, the Petroleum Demand Restraint Act 1981 may need updating to reflect that New Zealand no longer had a domestic refinery.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Heinz Wattie's says it's just not viable to continue selling frozen vegetables, Gregg's Coffee, and several dips.   It's proposing to close manufacturing facilities in Auckland, Christchurch, and Dunedin, packing operations in Hastings, and cut 350 jobs.   Managing Director Andrew Donegan says the past five years have been tough for the company.   He told Mike Hosking it includes big increases in the price of gas, energy, diesel, and coffee.   Donegan says it's meant an almost 40% increase in the cost of producing a ton of vegetables.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Unprecedented jet fuel prices are set to cause extensive Air New Zealand flight cancellations, affecting tens of thousands of people.  The airline expects to consolidate 1,100 flights over the next six to eight weeks – impacting about 44 thousand passengers.  It expects to start notifying affected customers from today.  Chief Executive Nikhil Ravishankar told Mike Hosking at this stage, they're planning to cut frequencies, rather than entire routes.  He says they're in daily —if not hourly— contact with their fuel suppliers and working with the Government on a coordinated response.  They've already had to raise fares to help cover the rising costs, but Ravishankar told Hosking every airline is dealing with similar issues.  He says the airlines have the same or similar playbook for dealing with fuel price shocks like this.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Education Minister says they'll continue to work with unionised primary teachers, despite offering pay rises to the rest.   About ten thousand non-union primary teachers have the option to accept pay offers from today after the union's rejected three recent deals.  Erica Stanford told Mike Hosking a third of the workforce are being held up, and deserve a pay rise.   She says they'll continue to sort a deal with union in good faith.   NZEI's Liam Rutherford says the move is a deliberate breach of good faith and undermines teachers' collective bargaining.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.