Money For the Rest of Us

We analyze long-term stock returns when investing at market peaks and bottoms, and when stocks are cheap or expensive.We also share what we think stocks will return over the next decade and why.Finally, we simulate the investment outcomes for someone who invests $50 per week.Episode SlidesEpisode TranscriptSponsorsGet the free guide from NetSuite: Aligning for the Agentic Era: How AI Is Changing Everyday WorkDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I provide a short update on Money for the Rest of Us and introduce our listener survey. All survey participants will get access to an exclusive podcast episode on my worst investing mistakes and what I learned.Take the Money for the Rest of Us Listener SurveySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, we explore why the income we earn isn't the same as the return. We show how option income strategies work, what their historical returns have been, what drives the return, and what reasonable return expectations are.We show why option income strategies have a positive expected return while sports betting has a negative expected return.Finally, we look at other areas where we confuse income with the total return.SponsorsMoney for the Rest of Us Retirement Investing CohortDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesEpisode slide deckVariance Risk Premia by Peter Carr and Liuren Wu—NYUCross section of option returns and idiosyncratic stock volatility by Jie Cao and Bing Han—The Journal of Financial EconomicsThe Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options by Joost Driessen, Pascal J. Maenhout, Grigory Vilkov—SSRNCross-section of option returns and volatility by Amit Goyal and Alessio Saretto—The Journal of Financial EconomicsThe Art of Put Selling: A 10 Year Study by John Marshall, Krag Gregory, Katherine Fogertey—Goldman SachsLow Stress BetsRelated Episodes557: Don’t Fall in the Dividend Trap549: Why Catastrophe Bonds Are Yielding 12%, and Should You Invest?544: Sports Betting Is Not InvestingArticle: Tail Events and Tail RiskSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Bad actors will use AI to disrupt the financial system, transportation networks, and utilities. We should prepare now for this inevitability. We share how in this episode. We also explain why the bull market in gold will likely continue.Topics covered include:Why the OpenAI agentic AI breach is so disturbingHow do we prepare for cyberattacksWhy gold should be one of the assets we hold apart from the financial systemHow the historical relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken downTo what extent are central banks selling dollars to buy goldHow gold ETF flows influence the gold priceSponsorsGet the free guide from NetSuite: Aligning for the Agentic Era: How AI Is Changing Everyday WorkDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesEpisode 564 Slide Deck with ChartsGold's Run Isn't Yet Done - Bhanu Baweja - Financial TimesBrief independent investigation of agents’ behavior, reasoning and collaboration in the OpenAI / Hugging Face hacking incidentAre Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets? - Linda S. Goldberg, Oliver Hannaoui, and Sneha Parthasarathy - Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkRelated Episodes541: Debasement Fears or Meme Fever? What’s Driving the Gold and Silver Rally563: Why Interest Rates Keep Rising and What to Do About ItSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The national debt exceeds $40 trillion, U.S. long-term Treasury yields are at 19-year highs, the U.S. Treasury Department is intervening in currency and bond markets. We unpack it all in this episode and show you how to position your investment portfolio to lock in higher yields and protect yourself from falling bond prices.SponsorsTry NetSuite for FreeDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesEpisode 563 Slide DeckDebt to the Penny - U.S. TreasuryHistorical debt and budget tables - U.S. White HouseAverage U.S. national debt interest rate - U.S. TreasuryTreasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9 - U.S TreasuryAmerica’s Risky Debt: What Markets See That Policymakers Don’t - Hanno LustigRelated Episodes525: No More AAA – What the U.S. Debt Downgrade Means for Investors463: How to Lock in Higher Yields464: More Ways to Lock in Higher YieldsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.