PIWORLD Investor Podcasts

This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss the obvious (and only) story that really matters - the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.What is obvious is that America's "complete control of the airspace" has not resulted in reopening the Strait of Hormuz - small Iranian missiles and drones remain a problem.  Less obvious is that America's "no limits on availability of munitions" presumably leaves Ukraine's supply at risk, and Taiwan less protected.  Oil prices are up by 25-30%, and inflation will follow unless this is very short-lived.  Bond yields are rising globally.  A regime-changed Iran (with free-flowing cheap oil for the world) would be a wonderful outcome, but is currently very far from assured. Jeremy explains the importance of Kharg Island...let's hope it stays out of the headlines.

Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson consider the Saint Valentine’s day tech massacre. In face of the carnage, we take a step back and remember that writing software is only part of the story.  You need to plan, develop, test, sell and maintain. AI is untested in customer support for AI and much else besides.We have flashbacks to when Open Source became a thing and look to the SaaS transition and lessons learned and not learned.There is value amongst these hard-hit tech software stocks, but survival and growth in the face of AI is more than about having embedded products.  It’s also about the company structure and culture, and scarily for UK investors, its code base too.We consider the realignment of earnings multiples. After over a decade of analysts and investors assuming SaaS revenues go on forever, it’s now increasingly obvious that many software companies can and will die, and it might be messy.

Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson take comfort from FY25 trading updates but look forward to a year in which reality may bite back.Trading updates from Raspberry Pi, and news flow from Intel and Samsung, remind us that things rarely happen as smoothly or as predictably in real-world tech as is hoped, particularly in semiconductors.Computacenter’s update has confirmed George’s view on hardware sales and serves as another illustration that cash flow matters and should not be taken for granted.Looking to the US, the traditional SaaS stocks are underperforming, dragged down by the question of what AI does to them and, importantly, software pricing. No sign of the market asking these fundamental questions of the UK stocks just yet.

The Market Call returns to analyse market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of the Trump administration on the global economy and markets.Jeremy and Gareth explore U.S. GDP hitting 4.4%, and a historic precious metals boom with gold nearing $5,000 and silver approaching $100 an ounce. Discover key insights on the U.S. real economy, bond yields, and six critical investment themes for the year ahead, including the Space Economy, Robotics, and the "Great Rotation" of capital.Key Topics & Highlights:Geopolitics & Trump 2.0: Analysis of the Trump administration's aggressive stances toward NATO and Europe, and its impact on global relations.Market Volatility: How the "Davos circus" and recent fears have driven investors into a risk-off mode, with strategies for navigating the uncertainty.The Commodities Boom: Discussion on the dramatic ascent of precious metals, driven by a weakening dollar and rising geopolitical insurance premiums.The Inflation vs. Growth Debate: An exploration of a hot U.S. economy (near 5% growth) versus moderating Western consumer price inflation, and its bond market implications.Six Themes for ’26: A breakdown of top investment themes for the year:Robotics and Autonomous Driving.The Space Economy.The Rise of the Chinese Consumer.Healthcare Catch-up.Energy will join the Commodities Party.The Ongoing "Great Rotation" (Capital moving from Dollar assets/Treasuries to gold and other geographies).

Is silver's price spike a bubble, or an early warning of government confiscation for AI data centres and military needs? Craig Tindale, Australian investor and essayist, argues the West has lost touch with the physical economy — and national capitalism is our only path back.In this episode:• Why Craig sees silver regulation or confiscation coming, or where we rip out solar panels for their silver content.• How Western policy has detached from real-world physics• Lessons from 40 years of upgrading Asian manufacturing, banks & central banks• Why “national capitalism” is the West’s last hope• The real economic operating system we’ve forgotten

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown recently caught up with Erik@YWR, a widely experienced investment professional and popular Substacker.Erik discusses his experience investing in Africa in the 20'teens and his involvement in what he calls Project Zimbabwe; don't think that we, in the West, are immune from our own versions of Project Zimbabwe. In Erik's view, we are, and counterintuitively, it partially explains Erik's current bullish stance on equities, with his framing of S&P 10,000 and how we can get there.He also shares how his investing process identifies sectors and markets at inflexion points, and he currently sees energy (specifically oil and gas) as poised to join the commodity rally underway in metals and rare earths.He also discusses how AI and robo-advisors might challenge the impact of passive investing on equity markets.

In the last episode of 2025, Progressive's Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the significant events of the week, including volatile equities, what precious metals prices are telling us, and the ups and downs of oil prices, with the US Navy on patrol offshore of Venezuela. There has been a data dump of macro numbers and rate decisions, and an important decision by Europe's leaders not to seize frozen Russian assets.Overall, the critical question for investors in 2026 is whether central banks have done enough to tame inflation and pave the way for lower rates. Jeremy again highlights Japan as a source of risk to the bullish scenario.Next week will be quiet, but always worth noting who might be sneaking out RNS's last thing on Christmas Eve.

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss the main events of the last week in financial markets.The primary focus is on the mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve with its interest rate decision described as a hawkish cut. Jeremy describes how we might interpret this move, which is now signalling only one further rate cut in 2026.Kevin "The Real Asset" Hassett is widely expected to be announced as Jay Powell's successor in January. Further, this has also been widely interpreted as allowing inflation expectations to run wild, thereby impacting the prices of gold and silver.However, the Fed decision makers are also looking at their responsibilities for employment and the functioning of financial markets. To this end, you might be mistaken that they have restarted QE. The move to inject liquidity into the short-term money markets might not be strictly QE, but it does expand the Fed's balance sheet, at least in the short term.Jeremy points to Japan as the source of the market dysfunction that policymakers might be preempting via this (temporary) injection.In US megacap land, news comes of a $1.5 trillion IPO for SpaceX, and a busy week for the Ellison family. Larry Ellison's Oracle highlighted the risks around the AI data centre build-out, but also his son and other high-profile backers were behind the $108bn hostile bid for Warner Bros.Jeremy highlights the precedent for such giant hostile bids, and it is an interesting list! Surely nothing to see here.Looking ahead, there will be further evidence next week of the weakening US jobs market.The events in Venezuela and the Ukraine peace process will also be centre stage.

Cerillion CEO, Louis Hall and CFO, Andrew Dickson, present the company's results for the 12 months ended 30 September 2025, followed by Q&A.Louis Hall, CEO00:16 Introduction00:32 About Cerillion01:38 Product Delivery Model03:04 BSS/OSS Market Size04:07 FY2025 Highlights11:20 Competitive LandscapeAndrew Dickson, CFO12:45 2025 KPIs17:13 2025 Financial Highlights18:41 Cash Generation20:10 Income Statement20:56 Balance SheetLouis Hall, CEO21:26 New Logo Sales Pipeline, New Orders and Back-Order22:06 Summary & Outlook22:30 Q&ACerillion has a 26-year track record in providing mission-critical software for billing, charging and customer relationship management ("CRM"), mainly to the telecommunications sector but also to other markets, including utilities and financial services. The Company has c.70 customer installations across c. 45 countries.Headquartered in London, Cerillion also has operations in India and Bulgaria as well as a sales presence in the USA, Singapore and Australia.The business was originally part of Logica plc before its management buyout, led by CEO, Louis Hall, in 1999. The Company joined AIM in March 2016. www.cerillion.com

This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss mainly the apparent confusion of bitcoin falling while other “inflation hedge” or “real asset” measures like gold and silver are at or close to all-time highs.  Jeremy has four or five reasons why this might be the case - all of which highlight the usefulness of bitcoin’s “always on” trading 24/7 as a barometer or investor opinion.Macro markets have helped Rachel Reeves avoid short-term repercussions of the Budget. Next week’s Fed rate decision may be overshadowed by gyrations around the potential seizure of Russian monies - and what that means for the value of the dollar in the eyes of anyone who might one day upset the West.

IG Design Group Interim Executive Chair, Stewart Gilliland and CFO, Rohan Cummings, present the group's results for the six months ended 30 September 2025, followed by Q&A.Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair00:16 Introduction01:18 HY2026 SummaryRohan Cummings, CFO02:22 Group Revenue03:18 Adjusted Operating Profit04:27 Segmental Performance07:27 Financial Summary09:25 Cash FlowStewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair10:51 The Group Today12:42 Design Group Europe14:05 Design Group UK15:49 Design Group AustraliaRohan Cummings, CFO16:59 GuidanceStewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair17:50 Long-term Growth Drivers19:32 Case Study20:13 ESG21:16 Outlook22:00 Q&AIG Design Group plc is a leading designer, innovator and manufacturer across various celebration and creative categories.For further information please visit www.thedesigngroup.com.

This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss mainly the apparent confusion of bitcoin falling while other “inflation hedge” or “real asset” measures like gold and silver are at or close to all-time highs.  Jeremy has four or five reasons why this might be the case - all of which highlight the usefulness of bitcoin’s “always on” trading 24/7 as a barometer or investor opinion.Macro markets have helped Rachel Reeves avoid short-term repercussions of the Budget. Next week’s Fed rate decision may be overshadowed by gyrations around the potential seizure of Russian monies - and what that means for the value of the dollar in the eyes of anyone who might one day upset the West.

Progressive’s Jeremy McKeown visited Buenos Aires last November to understand the early impact of President Javier Milei’s election, guided in part by insights from Jeffrey Stout, a US-born businessman whose pro-Milei perspective stood out during Jeremy’s research. A year on, with midterms complete, Jeremy reconnects with Jeffrey to reflect on what has changed and how Argentina’s trajectory now looks.Jeremy visited Buenos Aires in November last year, wanting to see firsthand what was going on under the newly elected President, Javier Milei. He met some fascinating people who shared their stories and perspectives on the Milei Revolution.As he was researching an article about his visit, he read some early accounts of the rise of Milei and the stories told about him in 2022 and early 2023.In the readers’ comments section under a rather scathing article about him in the Buenos Aires Times, there was a short but forthright comment that explained why the reader thought Milei was likely to win the Presidency. It was from a reader named Jeffrey Stout, who seemed to be a lone voice in the comments section, taking this counter view.Jeffrey, a successful businessman and US citizen, knew what he was talking about, and he kindly spent a couple of hours helping understand a few fundamentals of how things worked, or most often didn’t work, in his adopted country.12 months on, with the midterms out of the way, Jeremy reconnected with Jeffrey for an update on what had happened over the year since they met, and how he sees things shaping up.

On the 27th of November, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown had the good fortune to speak with Simon French, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and Thomas Moore, Senior Investment Director at Aberdeen, to discuss the UK Budget and its implications.Simon, who writes a regular column in the Times, is a go-to person on the UK economy, and Thomas is steeped in experience and understanding of the value and income attractions of UK equities, with a long and successful track record of managing the Aberdeen Equity Income Trust.They had a great chat and distinguished the essential differences between the UK economy and the UK market. But also at the risk of mansplaining, they also identified what more needs to be done for the UK economy to deliver growth and, importantly, to make UK assets more attractive to global capital.Please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with Simon French and Thomas Moore.

Progressive's Ian Robertson and George O'Connor wish ChatGPT a Happy Birthday before cantering through recent UK small tech updates. ActiveOps – going well, but could short-term brokers and metric-obsessed fund managers stop this little gem from reaching its full potential Cerillion – a pause for breath, year, still well positioned, cash generative with excellent margins GBG – it is going to be hard work, but the management looks to be up to the challenge Then, looking to Autodesk, George considers changing charging / accounting models when faced with AI and difficult wider economics – doesn’t the market see right through this?

As Americans took a break to overindulge on Thanksgiving, we Brits were forced to listen to our government explain how they had overindulged recently and how we must now pay for it. This week, Progressive's three wise men mansplain the Budget and its implications.Jeremy and Gareth are joined by Progressive building and construction analyst and Property Week columnist, Alastair Stewart, to offer his views on the likely impact on the UK housing and housebuilding markets following Rachel Reeves' second Budget. Spoiler alert, he's bullish.Looking ahead, Jeremy expects an easing of financial conditions from the US as, among other things, the White House considers ways to improve the Republicans' chances in next year's Congressional midterms.

Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on the news and events affecting UK-listed tech companies.George and Ian consider Sage’s recent full-year results and where it can go from here. Its cloud-based US acquisition Intacct, has shown what can be done, but is Sage condemned to a life in the slow lane by its parochial home market’s love of yield and misunderstanding of growth.They also ponder the challenges that the new CEO faces at Tracsis. Not least of which, in a similar theme to Sage, is its technical debt. Although it’s worth remembering its customer base, which might be more suited to a legacy approach after all.

This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans start by talking about the market changing its mind twice, and quite materially.  The positive reaction to the US government's reopening was short-lived, as was the delight at NVIDIA's blowout earnings on Wednesday.  In both cases, prices were boosted by good news, only to drift - in NVIDIA's case by 8% top-to-bottom in the course of just a day.  Markets always move, but these are huge deltas on some very large amounts of capital.  Lots of things are overlapping so discerning worries about AI from worries about the economic outlook is almost impossible. Our traditional reminder to keep one eye on Japan, where 10-year bond yields are soaring and the currency dropping...beware the carry trade unwinding with a bump. In the UK, we're all waiting to see which of the many-mooted taxes will be inflicted on us - the chances of a real surprise look pretty small.  Progressive client Gear4Music delivered a strong H1 result, perhaps demonstrating the resilience and operational gearing that we've been discussing may be a feature of a large number of UK micro-caps.  They have weathered Brexit, Covid, supply chain pressure and now consumer pain - with costs kept lean and strong operational efficiency, any recovery will flow straight to the bottom line - which is exactly what G4M has demonstrated. Next week we have US retail sales and durable goods data, and FOMC members with a number of speeches in the diary.  Confusion and contradiction remain, as the US economy sees Wall Street (mainly the Magnificent 7) whose AI and capex-fuelled world is growing rapidly, contrast sharply with Main Street where the average American is feeling real pain.  Should interest rates be set to rein in tech-bro exuberance and gently deflate a potential bubble, or to give some cost-of-living relief to the down-trodden masses?

Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on the news and events affecting UK-listed tech companies.Rightmove’s share price reaction to management’s decision to accelerate its investment in AI suggests that the market is not comfortable with AI and is in bear case hunt mode. Looking at Rightmove, Trainline, Autotrader et al. it is clear that AI is going to make a difference, but it is not changing that many business models.We consider Kainos’ results and George talks us through how the business has evolved before contemplating whether there will be or, perhaps can be, a budget flush coming as those with IT budgets use it or lose it in the final months of the year.We look forward to Sage’s forthcoming results by looking at Xero’s just gone and consider how business models and routes to market have evolved, then look to the potential float of Visma next year.Brought to you by Progressive.

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown speaks with renowned global thematic investor Mark Farrington, exploring decades of Asian market shifts—from Japan’s boom and bust to China’s emerging challenges.Two of Jeremy's guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia.Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful.Jeremy caught up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China.In particular, he was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism.Mark delivered a masterclass on the hows and whys of global thematic investing. It is an episode that should have a long shelf life.With that, please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.