Net Assessment

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the merits of Jennifer Kavanagh's proposed Second Island Chain strategy for Asia. They discuss U.S. objectives in the region and whether commitments to allies and partners are important to those aims. Chris also highlights the Trump administration's illegal questioning of civilian employees' past votes, Melanie warns about continued defense budget uncertainty, and Zack laments the administration's wayward embrace of Russia. Show Links: Jennifer Kavanagh, "A Second Island Chain Strategy for Asia," Defense Priorities, September 10, 2026. Stephen Wertheim, X post, September 11, 2026. Antoni Slodkowski, Gram Slattery, and Andrius Sytas, "Pentagon tells Europeans to cool their rhetoric on Russia, sources say," Reuters, October 31, 2026. The Iran War, Eight Months On: Reassessing Costs, Consequences, and US Interests • Stimson Center 2026 Outrider Nuclear Media Summit  Face Off: Nuclear Anarchy?  Kathianne Boniello, "State Department Allegedly Quizzed Those Up for Promotion If They Voted for Trump," Mediaite (via YahooNews), October 22, 2026. Noah Robertson, Inside the Breakdown of Trump's $1.5 Trillion Pentagon Plan, Washington Post, October 29, 2026.   

On this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the question of military victory. Is there such a thing? Is military victory achievable for either Russia or Ukraine? And if so, at what cost? And will we ever see a war that ends in unconditional surrender? Grievances for President Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine by siding with China and Russia; the Saudi's dissembling on the threats to the Kingdom; and the latest stories of corruption within the Trump administration. Attas to the Ukrainians who rescued a wounded soldier by drone, to Anthony Scaramucci for lasting twice as long in his job as Katie Zacharia, and to Stimson's Evan Cooper – who is getting married! Congrats to Evan and Grace.   Show Links:   Stephen Biddle, Sam Winter-Levy, and Yuri Zhukov, "The Myth of Military Victory: The Dangerous Idea Driving Today's Wars of Choice," Foreign Affairs, October 6, 2026. Ahmed Al Omran, Nicolas Parasie, and Andrew England "Saudi Arabia to postpone 'Davos in the desert' after Houthi attacks," Financial Times, October 19, 2026. The Iran War, Eight Months On: Reassessing Costs, Consequences, and US Interests, Stimson Center, November 5, 2026. Henry Stimson Diary August 9-10, 1945, National Security Archive. Drone rescuing Ukrainian soldier, X post, October 19, 2026.  Dana Mattioli, Josh Dawsey, Joe Parkinson, Drew Hinshaw, and Vera Bergengruen, Inside Kimberly Guilfoyle's Last Days as Ambassador to Greece, Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2026.

As the artificial intelligence revolution advances and the Trump administration questions the value of outside experts, think tanks are facing a worsening supply-demand imbalance. Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss a recent Anthropic report outlining different economic scenarios and apply its lessons to better understand how AI will transform think tanks and the broader foreign policy community in Washington. Chris welcomes members of Congress questioning funding for the Iran War, Melanie criticizes the administration for massively subsidizing a steel mill in Iowa, and Zack laments civilian leaders for involving the military in political messaging. Show Links: "Scenarios for Our Economic Future," Anthropic, September 2026. Helene Cooper and John Ismay, "Hegseth Lays Out His Military Vision," New York Times, September 30, 2026. Nela Richardson and Tim Decker, "The rise – and rise – of knowledge work," ADP Research, April 21, 2026 Education Pays, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gene Healy, "Want to Stop the Iran War? Don't Pay the Bill," Reason, October 2, 2026. Mike Yeo, "After yearslong delay, Taiwan receives first pair of new F-16s," Breaking Defense, October 2, 2026.                                                                                        Hunter Slingbaum and Kelly Grieco, "Runway Trap: How Chinese Missiles and Rockets Could Neutralize Taiwan's Air Force," Stimson Center, March 5, 2026.

With Zack out collecting frequent flyer miles, Tom Karako joins Chris and Melanie to discuss the Lead Inspector General Report on Operation Epic Fury. When the war began in February, were the administration's stated objectives aligned with the resources needed to fight it? Are they now? What does America's use of so many high-end weapons tell us about our strategy? And what can we learn about the activities of the State and Treasury Departments during the war? Chris has a grievance for corruption in defense contracting, Tom remembers the late Sen. Jon Kyl, and Melanie wishes Capitals hockey player Alexander Ovechkin would stop campaigning for Vladimir Putin. Show Links:   Lead Inspector General Report on Operation Epic Fury, DOD Office of Inspector General, September 14, 2026. Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations in Iran, Congressional Budget Office, September 15, 2026. Noah Robertson, Tara Copp, Warren P. Strobel, and Alex Horton, More US Troops Have Died Amid Iran War Than Pentagon Has Disclosed Publicly, Washington Post, September 18, 2026. Ellen Milligan, Michael Neinaber, and Andrea Palasciano, US Warns Allies of Missile Delivery Delays Due to Shortage, Bloomberg, September 18, 2026. Eric Schmitt, Cost of Iran War Estimated at $43.6 Billion, New York Times, September 18, 2026. Robert Klemko, X post, September 17, 2026. James Paterson, Speech to the Submarine Institute of Australia, September 22, 2026. Tom Corben, Jennifer Parker, Satoru Mori, and Jeffrey Hornung, Australia, Japan, and the United States: Implementing a Trilateral Denial Strategy along the First Island Chain, United States Studies Centre, September 15, 2026. Jack Goldsmith, Glenn Fine, Jen Patja, What Does the Inspector General Do?, Lawfare podcast, December 10, 2024. William Turton, Avi Asher-Schapiro, Molly Redden and Kirsten Berg, "The FBI Anti-Corruption Squad Was Circling Susan Collins — Until Trump Got in the Way," ProPublica,   September 22, 2026. Richard Gowan, "Shrink the UN: The Next Secretary-General Must Get Back to Basics," Foreign Affairs, September 21, 2026. U.S. Foreign Policy and the Separation of Powers: A Conference on Law, Power, and Democratic Accountability in a Changing International Order, Tufts University, September 24–25, 2026. "The Second Trump-Xi Summit: Takeaways from the US, China, and Russia," Online Event, Stimson Center, September 28, 2026. The Sandra Day O'Connor–Washington Union Debate Series at George Washington University, October 3, 2026. Tom Karako, "Sing Missile Muse: America's Most Fearsome Weapons Need Better Names,"  War on the Rocks, June 7, 2021. Josh Hawley, "Why I wont Vote to Add Finland and Sweden to NATO," The National Interest, August 1, 2022. Tom Cotton, "Speech on the Senate Floor", August 3, 2022. Tom Karako and Mark Cancian, "Munitions Shortages after Epic Fury," CSIS, August 5, 2026. Amy B. Wang and Alexei Koseff, "Jon Kyl, a former top Republican in the Senate, dies at 84," Washington Post. Chris Lunday, Germany Plans a €12 Billion Missile Program to Deter Putin, Politico Europe, August 21, 2026.  Laura Pitel and Christopher Miller, Germany Urges US to Allow Patriot Missile Production in Europe, Financial Times, September 23, 2026. 

In this show, the Net Assessment crew ponders the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Twenty-five years after 9/11 and five years after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. what lessons have we learned about warfare? Does our experience in Afghanistan, and now in Iran, demonstrate that the American military has an outsized fixation on lethality? To better prepare for future conflicts, how should strategists think about how adversary human networks behave? Attas for former Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, and grievances for Argentina's Javier Milei threatening to retake the Falklands. *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links: Jonathan Schroden, What Have We Learned from the 9/11 Wars? Not Nearly Enough, War on the Rocks, August 17, 2026. Gregg Jaffe, Why the United States Can't Quit Its Wars, New York Times, August 30, 2026. Evan Cooper, The Shadow of 9/11 on Future US Foreign Policy, Stimson Center, September 3, 2026. Christopher Preble and Michael Cohen, The Perils of Lethality, Stimson Center, June 24, 2025. Greg Myre, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after clashes with Defense Secretary Hegseth, NPR, September 1, 2026. Power Politics: Thucydides to Trump. The Exercise of Power Internationally through the Ages, The Hellenic Centre, September 22, 2026. Javier Milei's Outburst over the Falklands is a Mark of Weakness, The Economist, September 4, 2026. Nancy A. Youssef, Missy Ryan, and Michael Scherer, Dan Driscoll's Parting Shot, The Atlantic, September 1, 2026. Jason Dempsey, Coming to Terms with America's Undeniable Failure in Afghanistan, War on the Rocks, February 11, 2019.  U.S. Department of State, "Promoting Pacific Prosperity: U.S. Engagement at the Pacific Islands Forum", September 1, 2026.