Grain Farmers of Ontario

US and the World Winter is still with us but if you look really hard you might see signs of spring. It is the time of year which can be quiet on farms across the greater North American corn belt. However, as the days go by their surely will be more warmth coming over the land with visions of planters heading out into the field. At the same time in South America, harvest and planting are in full swing. That is creating all kinds of variables for market action. Then there is the USDA which chimed in with their latest WASDE report on February the 10th. As reports go the February report is often quiet because it’s sandwiched between the bigger January reports and the later Prospective Planting report in late March. This USDA report did not veer from that script. In the report US corn ending stocks were reduced 100 million bushels but they’re still the largest in seven years. Also too, world stocks outside of the US and China are still tight and there were no changes to South American corn estimates. Corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels up to 3.3 billion bushels which is a record for corn exports. Corn exports are sitting at 2.127 billion bushels. On the soybean side of the ledger US balance sheet remain unchanged from January. There was an increase in production in Brazil which had been widely expected. Brazil soybean production is now expected to be 180 MMTs which is up to 2 MMTs from last month. Simply put, it was a quiet report for soybeans. US soybean ending stocks remained at 350 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks or increased 5 million bushels from last month currently sitting at 931 million bushels. On February 13th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.31 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.64 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $11.33 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.14 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of February 13th closed at $62.89/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $59.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, up vs the $1.97/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on February 13th, 2026, was .7345 US, up vs the .7188 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario In Ontario it has been an icy cold winter leading up to February the 14th. Parts of Ontario in the snow belt north and West of London as well as toward Barrie have an inundated with snow most of the winter and relief would be welcome. Hopefully this created an environment where winter wheat could survive underneath all the snow. Producers will be looking for some respite as we go into March to facilitate grain movement and production plans for 2026. In the meantime, Agricorp released final figures on last year’s crop putting Ontario corn at 191 bushels per acre and soybeans at 46 bushels per acre. Ontario basis levels have hardly changed for grains over the last 30 days since the last Market Trends report. In fact, there’s been a slight improvement in some parts of Ontario with eastern Ontario showing historical advantage on the corn basis. Very surely some of this is because of the terrible yields that were experienced in parts of eastern Ontario last year. As we move ahead it’s pretty clear in this part of Ontario and into Quebec that they will need corn to satisfy their needs. The Canadian dollar remains a significant stimulus to cash grain prices. This has happened even though the Canadian dollar did gain almost $0.02 over the last 30 days. Part of the issue has to do with the American dollar sinking and inversely the Canadian dollar gaining within that paradigm. This will likely continue because the American dollar is seeing pressure it is not seen before partly resulting from some of the political moves being made in the United States. For instance, the American President recently commented that he thought it was a good thing that the US dollar was going down. Foreign exchange markets are more complicated than that but their trade algorithms feed on those comments too. As we move ahead Ontario grain producers should be focused on the value of the Canadian dollar as always but also keep abreast of what’s happening with the US dollar. The two are highly inversely interrelated. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.15 over the March 2026 corn futures on Feb 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.47 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.69 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.90 to $3.06 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.02. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.72 bu. range. On February 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.28/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line We are at somewhat of a standstill in grain prices. Or is this the start of something new even to the point of kidding ourselves for a bit thinking it might be the start of a bull market. All three grains have shown a little bit of resilience in the last 10 days meaning something might be up. That might be China coming in and buying US corn and even more soybeans and it may not be. However, corn prices have recovered from the downdraft from the January USDA report and soybeans have moved much higher. Geopolitics is always a factor when it comes to grain prices and China is usually part of that equation. In fact, you might say it’s always old news. Last year they didn’t buy American soybeans until there was some type of dialogue with the American President. This year there seems to be more optimism by the Americans that the Chinese might come around. Part of that is based on their better relationship and the specter that President Trump will be visiting China in April. In many ways this is key. You’ve got to believe in the run up to that meeting there will be social media posts from the President about selling more soybeans and corn to China. Our trading algorithms feed on that phenomena. The only way to capture market opportunities from this is to have standing market orders ready. A weather market it continues to be if you consider South American production. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics recently reported that the Safrinha corn planting had reached 46% by mid-February. This is a touch behind where it usually is. At the same time keep in mind that on the Chinese Dalian corn futures exchange prices have been rising since last October. Corn is not quite like wheat; it is grown mostly in the United States but even still producers should keep an eye on market information about the Safrinha crop. Traders in China are looking at that too. As we move into March there will certainly be a shift for some producers from old crop to new crop. Keep in mind that every day of the year is an opportunity to buy and sell grain. 2025 did not offer a very long period of profitable grain pricing opportunities. Who knew we would see some of our largest price increases during harvest time? As we move ahead the March Prospective Planting report looms as a major market mover. However, in the relatively bearish environment which we find ourselves in a big change in acres might not be significant to market action until we actually see what gets planted in late June and July. Commodity Specific Comments Corn As we all know demand for US corn continues to be record setting. This is a very good thing considering that we had 17.02 billion bushels last year. Add a certain point there will be a small tussle for acres between corn and soybeans. Will corn acres be about 95 million this year compared to 99 last year? If they are that is reduction of 4 million acres of corn a fairly major move in the market environment we are in now. We will see if that happens and of course there will be estimates released in late February on the number of acres, but the big prediction will be coming at end of March USDA Prospective Plantings report. Any variation on the script like China buying US corn because there’s has quality concerns will certainly weigh on prices. Simply put, there is so much risk for price as we look ahead toward blowing off the dust on those corn planters. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 10.5 cents lower than the May 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 11th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans There is a lot going on in soybeans, possibly increased China buying, a resilient soybean oil market not only with exports abroad but also increased domestic consumption within the United States and possible quality issues in Brazil. For instance, all of these factors are relevant, but the earlier harvested soybeans in the northern part of Mato Grosso have been affected by very rainy weather. Needless to say, with the USDA predicting 180 MMTs of soybeans being produced in Brazil surely it is a minor factor. Brazil continues to be the titan of soybean production and harvest is continuing there at this time. Keep in mind that Brazil has had 19 straight season of production expansion and 75% of their exports go to China. Also keep in min

Written by Philip Shaw BSc(Agr.)MSc. Email: philip@philipshaw.ca Social Media X @Agridome US and the World January always represents a pivotal time in grain markets as well as farms across the Great North American corn belt. There is always a recalibration but much of it usually has to do with the January USDA report which represents the final numbers on the crop put to bed last year. Future spreads and basis are important but so are the numbers in these USDA reports as they are dialed in to the trading algorithms which generate futures prices around the clock. The January report historically can be explosive for volatility. This year was one of those years. On January 12th the USDA raised corn production to 17.02 billion bushels increasing yield by half a bushel as well as increasing harvested acreage. The corn yield is now forecast to be 186.5 bushels per acre which was way above pre report estimates. The USDA also bumped harvested acreage by 1.3 million acres pushing it up to 91.3 million acres. This was a shock to the market and nearby corn futures plummeted $0.24 on the day. Old crop carryover was bumped up to 1.551 billion bushels while new crop carryover was increased to 2.227 billion bushels. While the corn number was wildly bearish, soybeans were much more benign in comparison to corn. The USDA had a slightly increased harvested acreage of 80.4 million. It kept yield unchanged at 53 bushels per acre putting the total domestic crop at 4.262 billion bushels in 2025. The new crop ending stocks for soybeans totaled 350 million bushels which was up 60 million bushels from last month. The USDA increased Brazilian production to 178 MMTs while keeping Argentinian production at 48.5 MMTs. USDA set planted area for winter wheat in 2026 to be 33 million acres which is down 1% from last year and 2% from 2024. On January 16th corn and soybean futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. Wheat was higher. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.24 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.49 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.69. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.18 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.65 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.04 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of January 16th closed at $59.44/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.97/gallon, down vs the $2.04/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on January 16th, 2025, was .7188 US, down vs the .7263 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario This is a more classic Canadian winter than we’ve had in the near past. Snow and cold temperatures have inundated large parts of the province which can be a double-edged sword. Yes, it is normal Canadian January weather but at the same time there is still some Ontario corn left out in the field. Also too, the snow cover will provide some insulation for the winter wheat lying dormant underneath it. Basis levels are either the same or have increased slightly since the last Market Trends report. This reflects the Canadian dollar still fluttering below the 72 cent US level. The Ontario corn basis level is similar to what it has been in the past few years with the eastern Ontario basis being much higher than southwestern Ontario. This is historical but it also reflects dry weather experienced in much of eastern Ontario this year hurting corn yields. Both corn and soybeans will be exported out of Ontario and Quebec this year. All of it is a reflection of price but it’s also a reflection of infrastructure. Port expansions and improvements at ADM Windsor, Port of Oshawa, the new Picton terminals, the Port of Goderich, and the Port of Johnstown will only help grain movement. Exports are one thing and value-added domestic opportunities are another. The latter would be preferable and hopefully many new value-added projects are in the pipeline Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.26 over the March 2026 corn futures on Jan 16th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.55 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.91 to $3.11 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.61. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.57 bu. range. On January 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.32/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The USDA hit us pretty hard with the big surprise hardly anybody expected. When you see the USDA final number on corn come in outside the various trade estimates it means almost everybody was surprised. Of course, the biggest surprises were the increase in yield and the much bigger corn harvested acreage increase. One might ask how does the USDA predict 4.5 million acres of corn harvested then they predicted last July? It’s fuel for the conspiracy theorists. It will likely be a few years before we truly understand what happened. However, one theory that is being reported is the good crop with good yields filled up bunker silos with silage earlier than normal. What happens when these silos are full, then the rest of the corn goes into the pipeline and shows up in harvested acreage. There was a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested acres which would result in 200 million bushels of additional yield. The market simply was not expecting this. The USDA report was not particularly bearish on soybeans compared to corn. However, acreage was up slightly. Keep in mind that crush statistics are very good in the United States reflecting their commitment to biodiesel. For instance, the soybean crush is up approximately 285 million bushels over the last two years. There are commitments for an increased share of soybeans going to biodiesel. In 2025 this number was 3.3 billion gallons for biodiesel. The hope is to get it up to 5.5 billion gallons in 2026 and beyond. This blending credit equation is possibly being delayed by the supreme court considering the legality of tariffs. The blending credit is highly political and will be affected by the run up in the midterm elections. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 17.02 billion bushels of corn was a real wake up call for the corn market and it is hard to shake the big negativity. Keep in mind that old crop took the brunt of this and December corn held up relatively well. Last year December corn did not get above $4.80 a bushel and at the present time we’re hovering around $4.50 a bushel. It is splitting hairs but in a bearish environment that might be a positive. Keep in mind that the 2.2 billion bushel ending corn stocks created by such a big crop puts a cushion on any price increase for old crop corn. However, keep in mind there is lots of risk ahead. We still have to get through the Brazilian Safrinha crop as well as our new North American corn crop. We are always only one weather event away from a price increase. The world needs the corn as demand is so strong. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 7.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 9th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Believe it or not even with the slightly bearish tone in soybeans from the USDA report, prices are still in a yearly uptrend. The decrease in price since mid-October might have dialed in a lot of the bearishness of late. Keep in mind that the gorilla in the room China has already bought 12 MMTs of American soybeans and there is unlikely to be more. Trade wars might be easy to win but it’s pretty clear China is looking elsewhere for their soybeans. Who could blame them with Brazil set to produce another 178 MMTs soybean crop. This continues to weigh on soybean prices in both the short and long term. The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Wheat is bearish but what else is new. In fact, with such a bearish USDA report you would think that maybe wheat would join in sending everything down. However, that did not happen in many ways the wheat complex shook off the bearish nature of the move in corn. Also too, the Chicago futures contract has holding above the $5.00 level when there are probably a few reasons to go lower. In many ways, you might say that the wheat prices have the negativity already priced in. Keep in mind and the last USDA report had wheat domestic stocks and global stocks raised. With Ontario wheat currently underneath, snow cover it is always hard to tell where we’re at. With the likely number around 1 million acres of wheat Ontario producers will be hoping for better prices. At the present time $6.57 for wheat off the combine this July doesn’t have a lot of people rushing to the sales trigger. However, we must remember that price is much better than we received last summer. As January grows older and February comes about, Ontario wheat producers will be hoping for better price prospects ahead. The Canadian dollar fluttering under $0.72 US continues to be a stimulus for cash prices. The Bottom

US and the World The changeover in the calendar year always represents a shifting of the gears in our grain marketing outlook. At least in North America it seems that way with winter settling in with most of the crops in the bin. At the same time in South America, it is the middle of their summer. This means that all of the marketing factors with regard to crop weather are weighing into the price discovery equation. Needless to say, the mechanics of markets go on whether you change gears or not. It has been an incredibly good growing season this past year in North America. On December the 9th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. The December USDA report is usually a non-starter wedged between harvest in the United States and the January report which is usually much bigger from a market standpoint. This December report reflected not only that but also the slow regeneration of numbers coming out of the US government shutdown. The biggest change from the December report was reflected in the corn export number which was increased 125 million bushels from last month up to 3.2 billion bushels which is record territory. This brought down the corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 to 2.029 billion bushels down that 125 million bushels from last month. Everything else remained the same including the 16.752 billion bushels of corn production from this year. The soybean numbers remained the same from last month with US production at 4.253 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels was unchanged from November. Brazilian production remained at 175 MMTs and in Argentina at 48.5 MMTs. The wheat numbers were also the same except for world ending stocks were actually increased this month to 274.87 MMTs, up from 271.43 MMTs in November. On Dec 12th corn and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. Soybeans were lower. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.40 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.62 bu. The January 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.88. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of December 12th closed at $57.44/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $60.09/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04/gallon, down vs the $2.12/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on December 12th, 2025, was .7263 US, up vs the .7130 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.25%. Ontario Corn harvest is continuing in Ontario. As of December 13th, there is still a significant amount of Ontario corn still left in the field. Let’s estimate that at about 20 to 25%. We got here because of heavy snow that came early in December and looks to be staying as the month wore on. Much of this snow and cold temperatures is preventing any significant harvest progress in areas where it is apparent. Some of this Ontario corn we’ll be waiting till spring to be harvested. Production estimates vary but it looks like we’re looking at winter wheat acreage this past fall in a range between 1.046 million acres and 1.18 million acres. This is significant especially when you consider the low prices of wheat. It would seem that Ontario producers always need a good fall weather forecast to get wheat planted and 2025 was good. For many of those wheat acres they’re under a blanket of snow now even in the deep south west of the province. Ontario basis levels for corn has hardly moved from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar has been fluttering within the $0.71 range during this time currently at.7263 US. There also is the spectre of crop still in the field in some parts of Ontario as well as uneven supply in others. Corn yields in Ontario overall are likely down from last year even with the huge yields in the deep south west of Ontario. The soybean basis has increased slightly from last month partly reflecting the moves in the Canadian dollar. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the March 2026 corn futures on Dec 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.18 to $3.50 over the January 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.87 to $3.13 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.49. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.56 bu. range. On December 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.49/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The December 9th USDA report can only be considered neutral for price action as of early December. At the same time that this was happening we did see the price of soybeans start dropping rather significantly into the report and it is continued into mid-December. Part of this is the realization that China is not going to come to the rescue as well as good South American weather and a record South American crop on its way once again. Earlier the Chinese had agreed to buy 12 MMTs of soybeans from the United States. This came out of the presidential meetings between President Trump and President Xi. This is happening with small purchases of US soybeans amounting to about half of that as of now. That commitment should be fulfilled by the end of February even when South American soybeans are cheaper. In reality, there’s really no reason for China to buy anymore American soybeans especially in the political climate we have today. That is, of course as long as the South American crop does not get in trouble. The US government shutdown was significant for market action in November going into December. For the week ending November 22nd fund buying was off the chart for both corn and soybeans and much of this had to do with the vacuum of USDA information. In fact, USDA number since then have not supported this fund buying and this is partly why we’ve seen the funds exciting their longs over the last week from December the 12th. Clearly, these things can happen when USDA information is dialed into algorithms. As we move ahead, we might expect these algorithms to retrench based on more bearish USDA information. Of course, there are all kinds of issues that affect market price but at the end of the day a weather market is the thing that it usually comes down to. At the present time soybean futures do represent many things but they also represent the good crop weather in South America. As we all know USDA’s predicted record crops for Brazil this year and it’s happening as we speak. Lately South American weather has been bulletproofed, we will see if that continues. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Corn has been somewhat of a star among the agricultural commodities all year. That’s because we had the biggest record crop in the field by a country mile and futures prices did not fall apart, in fact they are higher than last year. USDA even increased corn demand by 125 million bushels in their last report. However, the January report could be confession time for corn. Is the crop really that big? Will the USDA continue to change the number of planted acres and harvested acres which will be reflected in production? It’s also hard to say at this point but as we look into the January 12th, 2026, report, those marketing variables have to be kept in mind. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. This spread has been cut in half from last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have lost about a dollar a bushel since mid-October. There was a mysterious pent-up demand for Chinese buying which of course never really happened in any big way. The funds have also exited soybeans over the last few weeks, and we know there’s a big Brazilian crop down south. There is some thought that the USDA will reduce the soybean national yield in the January report. In fact, some of this conjecture has been up to two bushels per acre which could carve off about 160 million bushels over the ending stocks figure. This would put soybean ending stocks at a very low level setting up the spectre for some fireworks ahead. The bulls can only hope. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 10 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat The December WASDE report did document an increase in world wheat production as well as an increase in world wheat stocks. In addition to this, last week the Rosario exchange forecasted that the Argentinian wheat crop was increased by another 3 MMTS. It is an old story about the wheat supply always filling the gaps and that’s exactly what we have now. Any major wheat exporter has to have problems for us to see a major increase in the price of wheat and at the present time we are in a bumper situation. There is wheat seemingly everywhere in good supply. In Ontario the 1.046 million acres to 1.18 million acres now safely under snow which should help it get to the starting gate in April. However, as usual wheat is the only crop that we exp

US and the World It is that time of year when farmers reach the proverbial finish line, of getting that crop in the bin. The harvest of 2025 has been abundant, and it is also taking place in a very timely fashion with very good weather across the North American corn belt. At the same time there’s been a bit of a dearth of market information as the US government shutdown has meant very little in terms of information coming out from USDA. However, this all changed on November the 14th when despite the continuing governing shutdown, the USDA released their latest WASDE report. For market watchers it was a long two months without USDA numbers. Many were expecting much lower numbers in this November report. However, it seems like big supply is still winning. The USDA actually lowered corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 bushels per acre. This was much lower than pre report expectations. This put US domestic production at 16.752 billion bushels above the previous record of 15.34 billion bushels from two years ago. Planted acreage was maintained at 98.7 million acres with harvested acreage at 90 million acres. The corn ending stocks for this year were raised 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels. The 2024/2025 Brazilian corn production was raised to 136 MMT, while Argentinian production was maintained at 50 MMT. On the soybean side of the ledger the USDA reduced soybean yields by .5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage was left unchanged from September at 80.3 million acres. This put total US production at 4.253 billion bushels a slight decrease from September. At the end of the day the USDA reduced their ending stocks to 290 million bushels which is a drop from 300 million bushels in September. Brazilian soybean production is set at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT for Argentina. This is unchanged from September. The US wheat production is set at 1.985 billion bushels which is unchanged from the September small grains report. On Nov 16th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.67 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $11.24 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.15. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.27 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.64 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.15 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of November 16th closed at $60.09/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.54/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.12/gallon, up vs the $2.09/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on November 14th, 2025, was .7130 US, about the same vs the .7025 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario In Ontario it has been a good harvest window for a crop that has been widely divergent depending on where you are in the province. As of November 16th, most if not all of Ontario soybeans have been harvested. Corn continues to be harvested with an estimate of about 65% complete. Widespread snow in the province in the middle of November did cause somewhat of a slowdown. Yields reflect the drought conditions of the summer with central and eastern Ontario being pretty tough. On the contrary corn yields in the deep southwest of Ontario are record high by a lot. As a general rule winter wheat acreage in Ontario is highly correlated to wheat planting conditions in the fall. In other words, if it’s a good fall wheat production is usually up. This does not necessarily reflect 2025 as we had a very good fall, but wheat production is set to come in at about 1 million acres which would be slightly below last year. Ontario basis levels for grains has increased slightly from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar being at a low ebb has been part of this equation but also the uneven supply and drought-stricken areas has been another. For instance, some basis bids in eastern Ontario are much higher than the rest of the province for corn. The US replacement prices also favourable toward importing corn into Ontario. However, with big corn supplies in the deep southwest the situation is fluid. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.52. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.79 bu. range. On November 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.23/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The November USDA report was a disappointment to market observers who are expecting much more. Interestingly enough, the November report is usually a dull report on a normal year. However, with the government shutdown and with the trading algorithms not being fed U.S. government numbers for about 60 days it was widely anticipated as a big report. However, when it was released and the numbers were presented, it looks like big supply won the day again as there wasn’t a big difference from September. The big news in geopolitics over the last few weeks has been the anticipation of soybean purchases from the Chinese again. The anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi was widely seen as possible impetus to a catalyst on soybean purchases. However, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. The USDA actually reduced export demand on November 14th and this tempered soybean prices significantly post report. After the Trump/ Xi meeting, the Chinese did agree to buy approximately 12 MMTs of soybeans this market year with an additional 25 MMT annually over the next three years. Keep in mind that in the 2024/2025 marketing year China bought 22.5 MMTs of soybeans from the US. So, in many ways, having the Chinese buy 12 MMTs of soybeans in this marketing year is half a celebration. Trade wars might be easy to win, but in this case, it looks like China has won this round. However, there might be a pullback in prices. There certainly was on the USDA report date. At the present time cash Brazilian soybean values are lower and at a certain point the Chinese will need soybeans in December and January and the Americans would be well placed to serve that need before the Brazilian crop starts being harvested. As per usual in these geopolitical situations nothing is true, and everything is true at the same time. Cheap agricultural commodities are always the great elixir to make sales possible. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Was the USDA number on corn of 186 bushels per acre a proverbial head fake? In other words, traders were expecting a much lower number in fact some were saying 3.2 or more bushels lower than 186 based on the cash markets over the last 60 days. Coming in at 186 bushels per acre was surprising to many. Should we expect this number to go lower in December and the final report in January much lower? Keep in mind that demand is off the chart for corn. For instance, US domestic usage alone is forecast at 13.08 billion bushels. The corn export number for 2025 and 2026 is now pegged at 3.75 billion bushels which is up 100 million bushels from September. There is some testosterone in these numbers. With big supply, we need that. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. This spread is the same as last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have had a little bullish run over the last several weeks but along came the USDA on November 14th and it put a kibosh on that. USDA lowered the soybean number down to 53 bushels per acre which was expected but there was very little else in the report to support the market bulls. Soybeans retreated over $0.20 on the day and will need to regroup to move ahead. Our American friends have been looking at this regroup as Chinese buying of American soybeans. However, that is not happened yet in any big way. For instance, the American government shutdown has meant that none of this has been documented and released for publication. At the same time any agreement with the Chinese only reflects lower numbers if it happens at all. However, on the flip side if in the unexpected event China does come through in a big way for American beans, it will be good for soybean prices. Needless to say, the cash price for Brazilian beans now is far below American gulf soybeans values. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11.75 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 21st percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat In the wheat market over the last two weeks of October and the first week in November we had kind of an earthquake. This refers to about a dollar appreciation in the futures price of wheat at Chicago which is pretty unusual. As we all know, there is wheat everywhere with supply being replenished all the time. On que, in the November 14th USDA

US and the World It has been for the most part a wide-open harvest season across the greater American corn belt. This is not only been reflected in the American Midwest but right across Ontario. Harvest has moved quickly and as we are into mid-October corn harvest is ramping up or in full swing throughout farm country. In the meantime, politics has taken over in the American government which has led to a shutdown of government services. This includes much of the crop reporting functions of the USDA and the monthly WASDE report. Hopefully this will change going into November, but it is all conjecture at this point. Keep in mind that USDA reports do serve as a benchmark for market action. They are not perfect and in fact, 2025 has been an example of that. For instance, going from last month’s report we have a record corn production expected of 16.814 billion bushels on an average yield of 186.7 bushels per acre. This is projected on a record corn acreage of 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage which is now projected at 90 million acres. Looking back, the USDA predicted corn acreage this year at 95.3 million acres on March 31st. The difference is striking, and it has had an effect on the market. The same could be said for the soybean market as planted acreage from September being adjusted to 81.1 million acres. The USDA had predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans on March 31st. Clearly, it’s hard to square the circle on how these numbers could be so different over the course of a few months. Needless to say, USDA numbers give us benchmarks which are consumed by trading algorithms, which discover our futures prices. In lieu of those benchmarks, the market still gives better clues sometimes than the USDA. For instance, futures spreads have been narrowing and basis levels have been increasing across the greater American corn belt. This hints at the crop might not be as big as advertised. As we move ahead, without government numbers zeroing in on futures spreads and basis values over the next few weeks are extremely important to understand market direction. On October 17th corn, soybean and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. December 2025 corn futures was at $4.22 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.57 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.19 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.64. The December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.03 a bushel. The Minneapolis December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of October 17th closed at $57.54/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.69/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.09/gallon, down vs the $2.20/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on October 17th, 2025, was .7125 US, lower vs the .7221 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.50%. Ontario It has been an amazing stretch of harvest weather from late September into October 16th across Ontario. Warm temperatures and dry days intermixed with just a few rain showers has led to big harvest progress throughout Ontario farm country. As of October, the 15th about 91% of Ontario soybeans have been harvested and 2% of Ontario corn has been harvested. You can make an argument that drought is good at harvest time, allowing fast harvest progress. However, as we all know severe drought in much of central and eastern Ontario has impacted crops this year leading to very low yields in some cases. As of the end of September this continued. However, yields have been very good in the deep southwest of the province which got more rainfall throughout the growing season. Overall yield for both corn and soybeans for Ontario will be down from last year and quite significantly in the droughty areas. Ontario basis levels for corn have retreated from earlier levels where there were premiums for early harvest corn. This corn would have been harvested in late September or very early October. The lower basis values lately reflect lots of corn in the United States as well as deep southwestern Ontario. However, there will likely be basis opportunities in eastern Ontario reflecting the drought of the last summer. The soybean basis actually increased slightly from last month reflecting largely the drop in the Canadian dollar to the .7125 US level. Foreign exchange, as always is a major factor in the Ontario soybean basis level. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the December 2025 corn futures on October 17th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.57 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.17 to $3.44 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.77 to $3.15 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $5.90. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.41 bu. range. On October 17th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at http://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line Daily market intelligence remains key to our marketing plans in 2025. At the present time that is very difficult especially when the USDA is not releasing crop reports which are usually the lifeblood of trading algorithms. In the meantime, focusing in on narrowing spreads in futures and basis values can offer some of the best clues. Those clues now are showing a tightening of future spreads especially in corn and a little bit less so in soybeans. Is it the start of something or is it simply a head fake? It is all so hard to know especially at a time when the USDA is not releasing numbers on grain. However, it would seem that commercial interests are back in the market as the week ended on October 17th. Of course, this is all relative to the big size of the crop out there. Much has been said about the lack of Chinese soybean buying from the United States but there are really no economic reasons for the Chinese to do so. At the current effective tariff rates of the 23% against US soybeans its cost prohibitive for Chinese processors. US soybean prices are now below Brazilian prices and $1.40 bushel below Chinese domestic prices. This would come especially at a time when there is a gap between South America supply. However, it may seem that trade wars are bit harder to win than once thought. It’s just a long story now. Domestically, US soybean crush in September was 12% higher than the year before as the US crush industry continues to expand into territory not seen previously. This sector is particularly sensitive to any trade announcement coming between China and the United States. An argument could be made if things are normalized soybean prices could be springboard higher. However, these are not normal times especially with the vacuum of USDA information. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 186.7 bushels per acre is a very solid US domestic yield, in fact a record. However, without official USDA numbers it is hard to judge if that is been backed off going into October. Future spreads and basis along with the price movement have told us that there is a strong indication that the yield might not be as high as that. A two-bushel reduction in yield significantly alter the stocks picture based on previous record production. Corn prices have increased somewhat from the August lows and domestic use has been strong in the United States as well as big export numbers. It is always hard to tell without the government reports, but Mexico has been a big buyer of corn at these price levels. There is a lot of livestock to feed and a lot of corn products to be consumed in Mexico. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 13.75 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. However, this spread has been narrowing over the last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Do soybeans offer hope for producers? It seems that way especially when you take the lower acreage this year but realistically soybeans really haven’t gone anywhere in two years. We have been stuck between a range of $9.50 a bushel and $10.50 a bushel on the front futures month. It has been very difficult to break above that. The soybean market has grown accustomed to not having any Chinese buying in it. The Chinese need to buy 8 to 9 million metric tons of soybeans between now and when new crop soybeans start coming off in January from Brazil. There is a meeting scheduled for the end of the month between President Trump and President Xi but of course any trade agreement is a theory now. However, a surprise announcement would help soybeans break out of that big range it’s been in for quite some time. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 17 cents below the January contract considered slightly bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 10th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Are wheat prices on the way back after such a bearish time? Add a certain point you would have to say yes with Chicago wheat dipping to such low levels. However, as always wheat suffers from the inescapable fact that is grown everywhere throughout the world and planted and harvested every month. Supply dips are always smo

US and the World      It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater American corn belt. As we headed into the end of September many market observers were wondering just how much impact the dry late summer had on the crops growing in the field.  On September 12th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report.       At first glance the September 12th USDA report was bearish showing some very big numbers. In an unexpected move the USDA increased corn production 72 million bushels pushing the projected record total up to 16.814 billion bushels. This happened despite a 2.1 bushel per acre cut in 2025 yield down to 186.7 bushels per acre. The lower yield was offset from USDA by increasing planted acreage and expected harvested acreage.  So, we are smashing the previous production record that took place in 2023/2024 of 15.34 billion bushels of corn.  The US planted corn acreage was increased 1.4 million acres to 98.7 million acres and harvested acreage is now projected to be 90 million acres up 1.3 million acres from last month.  Corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 for the US corn crop is now 2.117 billion bushels which is the highest ending stock in 7 years.  Keep in mind anticipated corn demand is at a record high of 16.06 billion bushels.       On the soybean side the USDA was not as dramatic as they were with the corn.  US domestic yield was actually cut 1/10 of a bushel down to 53.5 bushels per acre with planted acreage at 81.1 million acres and harvested acreage to be 80.3 million acres.  This puts the total soybean production to come in at 4.301 billion bushels.  The increase in soybean acreage resulted in a slight increase from the 4.29 billion bushels of soybeans being predicted last month.  Production in Brazil and Argentina was left unchanged at 175 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively.  China’s import of soybeans is expected to be 112 MMTs, the same as last month.  The USDA will update their wheat production forecast in its Small Grains Summary to be released September 30th.                  On September 12th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  December 2025 corn futures was at $4.30 a bushel.  Dec 2026 corn was at $4.69 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.46 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.23 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.29 a bushel.      The nearby oil futures as of September 12th closed at $62.69/barrel the same vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.69/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.20/gallon, up vs the $2.05/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.      The Canadian dollar noon rate on September 12th, 2025, was .7221 US, lower vs the .7243 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario In Ontario the yield robber this year will likely be the protracted dry weather that many areas of the province received during the 2025 growing season. Simply put, it was a dry year for eastern and central Ontario as well as the Niagara region and parts of west central Ontario.  The one exception is the deep southwest of Ontario which received adequate rainfall and has tremendous crops in the field.  However, an argument could still be made that it is still dry and some of these drought induced fields have already seen soybean harvest started. Corn harvest started earlier for some people in central and eastern Ontario who had no alternative but to harvest corn for silage hoping to salvage something from the drought. At the same time rapid movement of corn out of the province led to a situation where basis levels were much higher especially in eastern Ontario going into Quebec.  In other words, large expanses of central and eastern Ontario are the complete opposite of the big crop in the greater American corn belt. As we look ahead US corn will likely move into these areas in 2025/2026 rapidly replacing corn that didn’t come to fruition through drought ravaged fields in 2025.  In fact, any early harvest corn coming off this September can find a big premium vs going into later October and November. It’s a unique situation.  Basis levels have risen or widened since the last Market Trends report.  This is partly a reflection of the low Canadian dollar currently at .7221 US but also a reflection of the amount of corn that has left the province. This also represents good opportunity for farmers selling as we look ahead. If there’s been one silver lining to the swoon in futures prices over the last year, it’s about our Ontario basis levels. The Canadian dollar has largely been a stimulus to these price levels. The uneven forecast for Ontario corn supply going into 2026 will surely create some basis opportunities looking ahead in eastern Ontario.       Old crop corn basis levels are $1.90 to $2.36 over the December 2025 corn futures on September 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.96 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.95 to $3.19 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.85 to $3.19 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.04.  For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.64 bu. range. On September 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.92/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line      There is a huge crop coming in at record levels. It is almost hard to get your mind around it. The USDA has certainly been somewhat uneven over the summer of 2025 with regard to the number of acres that are in the ground. However, with combines rolling across the American corn belt the corn and soybeans are starting to come in and in the next few weeks we should have an even better appreciation for where this crop is.      The overall question might be why did the market react positively to the biggest corn crops ever to be planted in the United States?  Of course, if we knew that for sure we could hedge appropriately but keep in mind we’ve had so much negative and bearish news over the period of the summer. Some traders have often said don’t short a sleeping market and that’s what the corn market might have been over the last 60 days.  The record demand which can often get overlooked in a big supply scenario is having an impact.      Futures spreads in corn have been weakening over the last month reflecting the notion that the crop might not be as good as first advertised.  Initial yield reports out of Illinois are substantiating that. However, on the soybean side the November January futures spreads were unchanged on report day. The commercial side was actually growing more bearish with regard to buying soybeans going into the weekend.  So, basis levels in the United States for both corn and soybeans may widen on this run up in futures.       The demand picture for corn is strong.  It is the same for soybeans, but American soybeans not so much because of a lack of Chinese purchasing.  Keep in mind the price of beef and pork as we go into the grain harvesting season. The price of beef has been at record highs and the price of pork has been high as well. It’s quite obvious that this is good for feed demand, and it will likely be sustained through the winter. The beef and pork price complex is healthy for a variety of reasons.  A surging stock market does help consumers in the United States keep up their purchasing of protein. Commodity Specific Comments Corn      98.7 million acres of corn is huge. Since the June 30th acreage report we have gained 3.5 million acres of corn which is like piling on.  This is the highest acreage since 1936 and it screamed bearishness for the market. However, as we all know the market went up on the news seemingly having digested all the bearishness before the report. It was a strange move. Having said that, 16.817 billion bushels of corn is a record by a mile versus the 15.34 billion bushels grown two years ago.  You would think at a certain point corn will be hitting some headwinds. However, we also have record corn demand currently sitting at 16.06 billion bushels.  That is just as mind boggling or even more so than the production number. it makes the price picture looking ahead that much more mysterious. The December 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 17 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 15th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans      Soybeans reacted positively to the USDA report despite being a very big crop.  We’ve all become accustomed to the cliche that July weather and pollination affects corn prices and August rains affect soybean prices and soybean production. However, it’s completely obvious this year that we had one of the driest Augusts on record in the United States, but the USDA is still coming in with the 53.5 bushel per acre average.  It’s like it doesn’t add up. That might be what the market sentiment is saying at the moment.      Most American commentators continue to ask about the spectre of China buying soybeans.   However, they have not bought any new crop.  From a Canadian perspective this is very understandable considering China is a target of the US trade war. However, there are some still in the industry who are thinking a meeting in October between US and Chinese officials m

US and the World      Here we are it is the middle of August and in most years the crop is made. At this time of year much of the crop defining weather is behind us. Corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror but pod set in soybeans can be the real deal in August.  It’s been a pretty good year for the US corn belt with good weather almost from the beginning. So far, even the summertime weather has been kind.  On August the 12th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report.      In many respects, it was a shocker. It came in corn with the USDA predicting a whopping 16.7-billion-bushel corn crop with record yields projected at 188.8 bushels per acre. This would shatter the previous record and it was a good seven plus bushels above last month estimate.  The previous corn record production was in 2023/2024 at 15.34 billion bushels.  This planted acreage was increased by 2.1 million acres to 97.3 million acres. The harvested acres are projected at 88.7 million acres up 1.9 million from the July estimate.  Crop corn ending stocks was boosted 457 million bushels to 2.117 billion bushels.      The USDA prediction on corn was a big surprise and to some extent the soybean estimate was as well. However, it was a surprise on the bullish side.  USDA came out and predicted 4.29 billion bushels of soybeans which was at the low end of pre report estimates. This was based on a national average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre which would be a record high that came about. However, USDA reduced harvested acreage from 82.5 million acres to 80.1 million acres. This means that we actually have declining ending stocks on the new crop side of 290 million bushels, 20 million bushels lower than a month ago.  The USDA also cut back on world ending stocks 124.9 MMTs, a decline at 1.17 MMTs from last month.                  On Aug 15th corn and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report.  Soybean futures were higher.    September 2025 corn futures was at $3.83 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.05 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.42 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.06 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.70 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.42 a bushel.      The nearby oil futures as of Aug 15th closed at $62.80/barrel down vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $64.87/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.05/gallon, the same as the $2.05/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.      The Canadian dollar noon rate on August 15th, 2025, was .7243 US, lower vs the .7334 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario      In Ontario there is a mixed bag with regard to the crop growing in the field. Although much of the province got off to a good start dry weather and drought has inundated many parts of Ontario. Areas in central, western and eastern Ontario and the Niagara region have been and are suffering from drought conditions.  There has been some relief to these areas with recent rainfall, but the damage has been done. On the contrary the deep southwest of the province has had ideal conditions with good moisture almost all year. This will incubate many basis pricing opportunities within the province over the next few months.      Basis levels for corn have increased substantially over the last few weeks and especially in eastern Ontario.  It is always a balancing act with regard to how much corn is needed and how much is exported and how much is available in Ontario each year.  Of course, it is August now and lots of old crop corn has left the building.  Pricing opportunities for those who have corn left are quite good compared to the southwestern part of the province.  The Canadian dollar continues to stimulate these cash prices.      Soybean basis levels have moved up reflecting the higher futures prices. Clearly, with the drought in many parts of Ontario corn supply moving forward might be compromised. This could result in big basis opportunities for pricing in the next few months. However, it could also result in increased US imports of corn to keep prices low. It has been a few years since we’ve had this situation. Much will depend on the final yield of the 2025 corn crop.  Keep in mind in the Deep Southwest of Ontario the corn crop is good, and this is where the majority of corn volume wise is grown in the province.       Old crop corn basis levels are $1.80 to $2.53 over the September 2025 corn futures on August 15th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.20 to $1.62 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.95 to $3.05 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.85 to $3.05 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $5.87.  For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.64 bu. range. On August 15th the US replacement price for corn was $6.40/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line      We have a record crop to deal with.  It is almost getting to be what they used to call a broken record, continually playing the same song.  Over the last couple of years, we’ve got so accustomed to huge crops in the United States and its blunting effect on higher prices. However, this year on August 12 to USDA came out with the earth-shattering number of 188.8 bushels per acre of corn it redefined huge crop.  Yes, skeptics will scoff at that number, but regardless there is a lot of corn in the field in the United States.      Needless to say, December futures fluttering just above the $4.00 mark don’t lie. However, it’s pretty obvious that our American friends will have to put that big crop somewhere. Storage will be at a premium, surely some of it will be bagged in the field. There will be piles everywhere. There is also lots of on farm 2024 corn left. This will likely manifest itself at harvest time in lower prices and basis levels unless those combine yield stories tell a different tale.  This might be one of those years. Do soybeans offer a much better story looking ahead?  At first glance it would seem so based on the lower harvested acres the USDA estimated. Yes, they did put out a record yield at 53.6 bushels per acre but there was a cut of 2.4 million acres. That is significant and if that yield estimate changes on a hot and dry time over the next three weeks ending stocks will grow smaller.  This could set up an opportunity for a rally in soybeans. China could be a wild card in this scenario. However, we must be realistic. President Trump has called for China to quadruple their soybean buying from the United States this year.  Quadrupling zero buying it is still zero buying as the Chinese have not been part of this soybean market. As we look ahead, we’re almost getting beyond that to save the day. They prefer buying all agricultural commodities without any geopolitical strings attached. Look for them to always buy soybeans from Brazil as their  preferred option. Commodity Specific Comments Corn      The 188.8 bushel per acre corn yield was almost on the crazy side. The question is going forward is this the high watermark for corn yield for the 2025 crop. When it was announced corn was down hard on the day but by the end of the week September corn actually gained a penny.  To some extent that tells us that the yield was dialed in but on the other hand not believed by traders. Where corn ends up nobody knows but clearly, we have a huge crop and we need some type of new demand or fresh news to get this market going again. There had been talk about tassel wrap and pollination issues. However, that was lost in the avalanche of supply coming from USDA last week.  Corn exports to places like China would certainly be optimal in the next few weeks as there is still quite a bit of old crop in the pipeline. The September 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 21.5 cents lower than the December 2025 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2025 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Do soybeans represent hope in this market and corn just the opposite? Well, we know soybeans are the great liars but always in the end tell the truth. There was a huge cut in the amount of soybean acres which helped boost this market even at a record deal prediction of 53.6 bushels per acre. It is entirely obvious if we go hot and dry for the next three weeks that yield prediction will be cut, giving hope for soybean prices. Technically, it’s hard to tell whether we’re at a turning point for the soybean market. Soybeans have been bearish at least up to this point and there’s still an argument that they still are. Market action in the next week to 10 days should give some clues. As it is now, the cost of commercial carry for soybean contracts is dropping which might mean we’re getting into more bullish territory. However, the next two to three weeks of weather will be key and one of the first indicators might be basis levels in the American Midwest. Many producers are saying that the soybean yield is not there like corn yield is. The September 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 20.25 cents be the November 2025 contract considered neutral for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat It is an old story with wheat but is grown everywhere and there are surpluses almost everywhere ma

US and the World      July and August are very significant months for crop development within North America. It represents a time when pollination takes place in the corn crop and pod set takes place in soybeans. Adverse weather during this time can often impact the bigger crop in the field which also impacts prices. We are here now.  The crops look quite good.  The USDA NASS estimated 74% of the US corn crop look good to excellent on July 21st, which was 7 points better than a year ago. At the same time the soybean crop was estimated to look 68% good to excellent, which was equal to last year.  On July the 11th the USDA released their latest WASDE report.       In this report the USDA reduced the 2025/2026 US corn crop by 115 million bushels down to 15.705 billion bushels. This was based on a corn yield 181 bushels per acre.  USDA also lowered the beginning stocks for the new crop 25 million bushels to 1.34 billion bushels. The ending stocks for the 2025/2026 corn crop are now projected to be 1.66 billion bushels which is down 90 million bushels from June.  Globally, corn production was left unchanged in Brazil and Argentina at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT respectively.      On the soybean side of the ledger the USDA integrated its 83.4-million-acre planting estimate into the supply and demand estimates. This resulted in a 5 million bushels decline in soybean production for the current crop to 4.335 million bushels.  This was based on a soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre unchanged from a month ago.  Brazil and Argentinian soybean production was left unchanged at 175 MMT and 48.5 MMT respectively.  USDA also pegged US winter wheat production at 1.35 billion bushels down 3% from their June 1st forecast and down less than 1% from 2024.                  On July 22nd corn, soybean and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report.  September 2025 corn futures was at $3.99 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.18 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.25 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.49 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.91 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.04 a bushel.      The nearby oil futures as of July 22nd closed at $64.87/barrel down vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $66.50/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.05/gallon, higher than the $2.00/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.      The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 22nd, 2025, was .7334 US, lower vs the .7350 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario      In Ontario combines have been rolling through the wheat.  Conditions have been pretty good so far as of July the 22nd with good yields and quality. However, as always it continues into August and producers will be hoping for open weather to aid harvest.  Wheat harvest can be a challenge with wet weather and problems at the grading table, but so far it looks like it’s a pretty good year in Ontario for wheat.      Winter wheat is being harvested and other crops are growing well in the field with Ontario corn being slightly ahead of schedule versus soybeans depending on where you are in the province.  However, also on July 22nd there is unfortunate drought for many parts of central and eastern Ontario.  Rain is needed now.  Widespread fungicide application will surely be happening toward the end of July and into early August.  The good weather outside the drought areas in Ontario should benefit corn pollination. The difficult planting and replanting situation in the deep southwest of Ontario has soybeans trying to catch up.  Timely rains will be good for this.       Ontario basis levels have increased since the last Market Trends report.  Ontario corn prices in eastern Ontario have rose above US replacement price levels and cash prices above $7.00 a bushel have been garnered especially going into Quebec from Ontario.  It is all a function of localized supply and demand as these prices are more reflective of historical eastern Ontario basis behavior.  However, basis has increased slightly in corn and soybeans in other parts of the province reflecting that time of year when old crop supplies are not as plentiful.  A robust export market into the EU has been helping. Ontario wheat prices are in flux, daily market intelligence on wheat prices this time of year is a must.       Old crop corn basis levels are $1.60 to $2.54 over the September 2025 corn futures on July 22nd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.31 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.75 to $2.96 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.66 to $2.87 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are flux.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.21 bu. range. On July 22nd the US replacement price for corn was $6.37/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line      We all know it’s about the weather now. However, keep in mind that we are leaning on August 1st and part of the weather story is in the rear-view mirror, that being the late spring weather story and the July weather story. There is more going on here because it is a big, big world and geopolitics are part of that.  As it is, it seems like market algorithms have all that dialed in. However, you never know.      181 bushel per acre corn yield from the USDA looms large.  There are even private forecasters who are saying it’s much above that. However, as it is, a yield in the higher 180s will make prices go down and if the yield turns out to be in the 170s prices will go up. We are now in the twilight zone what may happen.  Daily market intelligence will remain key.      While potential for corn yields seems stratospheric, it doesn’t seem the same for soybeans. Yes, the crop looks really good now at 68% good to excellent the best since 2020.  Needless to say, November soybeans prices are rising above both the 20 day and maybe the 100 day moving averages, so it does show some resilience.  Of course, we know that August rains do make the American soybean crop.       We had said before that the geopolitical aspects of grain prices seem to be dialed in to the grain trading algorithms.  That seems to be the case especially with Ukraine and Russia which continues in a hot war.  On the other hand, there may be fresh news coming from trade agreements by the American administration toward China, Indonesia and other places in the Far East. This could provide a boost do both corn and soybean exports when the announcements are made. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Are there pollination issues in corn this July? It seems like there are always some pollination issues somewhere in the US corn belt but generally speaking there are no issues on July 22nd. However, the forecast is for hot and dry in another couple weeks.  It’s all a theory now. Weather can still be key with regard to forming what looks to be a record crop. Keep in mind for market bulls, this is grasping at straws. 15.705 billion bushels of corn isn’t lying at this point. There might be a variation of the theme but we’re still looking at very big corn stocks building in the United States based on where we are now.  On the supply side, it’s true there still is some weather risk but it is declining.  This corn crop so far has been bulletproofed. The September 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 18.75 cents lower than the December 2025 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 21st percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans We all know that soybeans are the great liars, but of course that puts us in a precarious position. Hot and dry represents a difficult scenario for soybeans. For instance, the hot part doesn’t bother soybeans as much as it does corn, a testament to all the tropical soybeans that are grown in Brazil. However, dry periods in August will affect soybean yield at the same time timely rains will do the opposite. Clearly August weather will affect the end story with regard to soybean yield in 2025.  It’s also important to keep in mind the soybeans have their own price story when compared with corn.  For instance, soybean oil has been on a bit of a tear higher since mid-June and this has been entirely helpful to soybean prices. This is related to the supply and demand for soybean oil as we know, the long-term US biodiesel policy is structurally bullish for soybean oil prices as well as soybeans. The August 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 7 cents above the September 2025 contract considered neutral for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.  Wheat      It’s that time of year when hot and dry does mean something, but usually not for wheat at this stage. However, keep in mind but there’s a big difference between spring wheat and winter wheat with regard to impact. For instance, 73% of winter wheat had been harvested in the United States as of last Sunday. At the same time 87% of spring wheat was headed at the same time. So, hot and dry can still affect the wheat yield in the United States. It is always a double-edged sword as some wheat producers need that weather to harvest.  Wheat prices are just coming off their contract lows.  As it is, there is about a 900-million-bushel carryover in wheat in the United States. This makes it very difficult for

US and the World       It is that time of year again. The July 4th weekend always represents a critical moment in the market year where prices can go one way or the other. Summer heat is ramping up across the greater American corn belt which may or may not impact what has been to this point very good crop in the United States. As of June 22nd, corn was rated 70% good to excellent and soybeans were 96% planted and 66% good to excellent.  Of course, it is a long way from the harvest finish line. On June 30th the USDA weighed in with their latest acreage numbers.    The June 30th USDA acreage report is one of the bigger reports of the year.  This is where the USDA adjusts March 31st acreage estimates.  In the report USDA said farmers planted 95.2 million acres of corn this past spring which is a decline of about 100,000 acres from the March estimate. It is also down 7% from a year ago. Having said that, it is still the third largest acreage since 1944.  Corn stocks on June 1st, 2025, came in at 4.64 billion bushels which is down 7% from a year ago.      On the soybean side of the equation the USDA reduced soybean acreage by 100,000 acres putting it down to 83.4 million acres this was 4% less than a year ago.  Both the corn and soybean estimates were within pre report estimates and the markets reacted accordingly. Soybean stocks as of June 1st, 2025, came in at 1.01 billion bushels which was up 4% from a year ago.  US wheat acreage was estimated at 45.5 million acres which was down 1% from a year ago.                  On July 3rd corn and soybean futures were lower than the last Market Trends report.  Wheat futures were higher.  September 2025 corn futures was at $4.20 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.37 bu. The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.49 bu. The September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.56 a bushel. The Minneapolis September 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.47 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.83 a bushel.      The nearby oil futures as of July 3rd closed at $66.50/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $72.98/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.00/gallon, higher than the $1.98/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.      The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 4th, 2025, was .7350 US, about the same as the .7354 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario Ontario is a big province and crop conditions can vary widely depending on where you are. At the present time on July the 7th very warm air has moved into Ontario which is helping crops catch up from a cooler start in late May and early June. There was some replanting of soybeans in the deep southwest up until the June 30th crop insurance deadline. At the same time other soybean crops which had advanced in other parts of the province we’re actually facing aphid pressure. It is the mixed bag. Ontario wheat harvest is fast approaching but as of July the 6th there really hasn’t been any harvest activity.  The crop is approximately 2 weeks later than it was a year ago, but as always weather will have a determining factor on when combines start rolling through southwestern Ontario fields. The hot weather that is greeted us in July will certainly accelerate the harvest date.  As always, quality will be about most concerned when the crop is harvested. Ontario basis levels have been stable since the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar at .7350 US has helped erode basis values since earlier this winter.  This has happened because the Canadian dollar has gained about $0.04 over this time against the US dollar. As always, it will have a direct effect on Ontario cash prices for grain. As we move into later July it will surely have an effect on cash wheat prices sold off the combine.       Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $1.70 over the September 2025 corn futures on July 4th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.36 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.64 to $2.85 over the November 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.61 to $2.80 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are flux.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.43 bu. range. On July 4th the US replacement price for corn was $6.64/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line      It’s all about crop weather now.  It’s an old axiom but it is very true. We have big crops, and we also have big old crop supplies and at this point there’s only one way to take that down which is crop weather in July and August. We will be going into the critical corn pollination period in July and as we all know heat is not good for the corn during this. On the other hand, benign weather into August will set us up for more supply.  The trading algorithms have this all-dialed in.      You might also say this for the geopolitical risk always associated with our commodity markets. The US dollar is at a three-year low which is always significant for US commodity prices. Part of this has to do with the sale of US bonds by other countries and the resulting decrease in U.S. dollar value. This has taken place because of the lack of confidence in some of the latest American administrations economic tariffs. However, The US is still the world’s biggest and richest economy, and this can never be negated.  They always take care of their American farmers, and this often results with the big crops continually produce regardless of prices. The other big geopolitical events that continue the Ukraine and Russia war along with the problems in the Middle East with Iran and Israel. However, what we have seen is in the world big supplies, this hardly matters to our commodity markets.   Needless to say, you could never completely ignore it.  The sun beating down on American crops will likely trump that issue when it comes to our crop price movement.      When you are in an oversupplied market it often can overshadow the big demand numbers that are underpinning it. For instance, USDA is expecting a corn crop of 15.820 billion bushels but keep in mind total usage is set for 15.460 billion bushels. In many ways, that is amazing and any hiccup in that narrative as we continue to move through the crop season will affect prices.  Oversupply has led to very cheap prices for grain.  That itself has built a lot of demand. Commodity Specific Comments Corn      It is the time of the year when new crop corn highs are often in or about to be met especially when you consider that we’re about to go into pollination for the US crop. However, so far, the high for corn prices came in February which is so unusual, and we have dropped about $0.65 a bushel since then. So, some fresh news especially regarding crop weather might be the only avenue to get some of that back.      As of July, the 4th, keep in mind that the USDA is predicting corn production to come in at 15.820 billion bushels. That is a lot of corn, and it would not be surprising to see this number go over 16 billion bushels.  That reality would keep us into a tough marketing situation. On the other hand, we aren’t there yet, and the critical pollination awaits.     The September 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 15.25 cents higher than the December 2025 contract a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans      Are soybeans going to save the day? We surely hope so much will depend on August rains to affect soybean futures violently one way or the other. China is still important in the equation as they usually buy about 1/4 of American soybeans.  South America is coming off a very good crop so it is hard to tell whether American demand will pick up. As it is, the American administration is negotiating with the Chinese for a trade deal, after just finishing one with Vietnam. Soybean oil has been a bit of a star in the soybean complex currently trying to break through 2025 highs.  American demand for their own soybean oil is structurally dynamic and growing. This will continue to serve as a long-term support or North American soybean prices.        The August 2025 soybean contract is currently priced .16 cents above the September 2025 contract considered neutral to bearish for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 17th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat      Wheat prices continues to confound as it is growing almost everywhere and there is no low supply of wheat as of July 2025. In fact, if we look back the highs in wheat so far were in February.  Wheat prices have dropped $1.50 since then.  The US dollar at three years lows should help the US wheat market which in turn should help us here in Ontario. However, it’s not quite as simple as that because at the moment we are where we are. Wheat prices simply are not hard spot now.       In Ontario as of July the 4th wheat harvest is still upcoming it is approximately a week to 10 days later than a year ago, as always wheat farmers are hopeful or a good crop. Quality concerns are always an issue with Ontario wheat producers still hoping for a dry window in the middle of July to get off to a good start.  The Canadian dollar continues to be a big part of Ontario wheat prices.  The Bottom Line (cont.)      When we think of geopolitics, we usually don’t associate that with the value of Canadian dollar and the relationship between C

US and the World      It’s not the home stretch but we’re getting closer. The end of June going into July is always a critical period for crop development.  It can also be a gyrating time for grain markets as there is so much risk ahead in the growing season. As of June 9th, 97% of US corn has been planted which is 3 points ahead of the pace last year. At the same time 90% of the US soybeans have been planted which is 4 points ahead of where we were a year ago. So, we are off to the races, and we will see what happens.  The USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report on June the 12th.    The June USDA report is often uneventful being ahead of the much bigger numbers that come in at the end of this month. This June report was no different.  USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 50 million bushels which reshuffled the corn balance sheet.  This set corn old crop stocks at 1.365 billion bushels a new crop corn ending stocks to 1.75 billion bushels.  The new crop forecast of 15.82 billion bushels based on the yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre remains the same.  The Brazilian and Argentinian corn crop remained the same at 130 MMTs and 50 MMTs respectively.      USDA had soybean production the same as a month ago coming in at 4.34 billion bushels on a planted acreage estimate of 83.5 million acres. This is based on the US national yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. The Brazilian and Argentina and soybean crop was left unchanged at 175 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively.  88% of US winter wheat was headed out by June the 9th.                  On June 13th corn, soybean and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  July 2025 corn futures was at $4.44 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.43 bu.  The July 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.69/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.54 bu. The July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.43 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.34 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.45 a bushel.      The nearby oil futures as of June 13th closed at $72.98/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.49/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.98/gallon, lower than the $2.00/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.      The Canadian dollar noon rate on June 13th, 2025, was .7354 US, up vs the .7154 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario In Ontario things are going well depending on where you are situated. As of June 13th, pretty well all Ontario corn has been planted with early planted corn in southwestern Ontario in the V5-V6 stage.  Weather conditions in eastern Ontario have caused some uneven stands in some areas.  Soybean planting is almost done on the lighter Ontario soils, but it continues on heavier soils with much replanting in southwestern Ontario. Two weather events with very heavy rain caused much replanting in South Lambton County and other parts of the clay belt in southwestern Ontario.  May was a difficult month for planting in these areas, cold and wet and farmers will be hoping the weather from now on will be kind. Wheat continues to advance with T3 fungicide application taking place across the province. Despite the Canadian dollar gaining up two cents over the last 30 days the corn basis in Ontario increased slightly. This might be based on bigger exports to the EU with corn being shipped out. Old crop stocks in Ontario are getting tighter but of course this is all relative to future demand over the next few months until another harvest time. At the same time the increase in the Canadian dollar has caused a weakening in the soybean basis.  As always, the value of the Canadian dollar is the elixir on cash prices for soybeans and wheat in Ontario.     Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $1.87 over the July 2025 corn futures on June 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.00 to $1.49 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.60 to $3.00 over the July 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.63 to $2.76 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.32 bu. range.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.28 bu. range.     On June 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.45/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/  The Bottom Line Here we are, it’s that time of year when the rubber hits the road. mid-June to mid-July is often the time when the market decides that the crop is made.  We have the USDA report at the end of this month which will renew the acres we’ve been working with over the last several weeks. Any surprise in that report could cause market gyrations.  Also too, crop weather during this time often defines everything. The United States and China are talking. Of course, they have a full-blown trade war going on between them with high tariff walls, soybeans being significant with regard to grain prices. Keep in mind in the first Trump administration there was a deal between China and the United States, but it took some time, and the market has been muted during the current talks.  However, with the increase in the renewable diesel RINs requirement on Friday from the EPA, the market turned around.  This will be a long-term benefit to American agriculture. It has the capability of redefining how much corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton will be grown and distributed throughout the United States. If this news had come earlier, there is a real possibility the market would have tried to buy soybean acres back the spring. However, it was the opposite as soybeans giving it up to corn acres or at least that’s what we’ve been led to believe.  How will this manifest itself on June 30th when the USDA releases their acreage estimates? Of course, it’s hard to know but keep that 95.3 million acres in mind. Any big variation will lead to a pop either way. Clearly, it’s also that time of the year when weather means everything. What its saying now is that the crop is made which is so unusual for mid-June, which usually represents a pretty good time to price new crop grain. So, if the market is right, here we are, but if it is wrong, we should see a run up on the other side. In any case, be aware of how this could change things Commodity Specific Comments Corn      The trendline yield from USDA for this year is 181 bushels per acre corn giving us a 1.75-billion-bushel corn ending stocks projection.  Keep in mind, that in the last six years we have not made trendline yields so it makes you wonder what is going to happen this year. As always, the weather in the next month will be key to the corn price equation.      At the moment, everything is projected to be good. We got off to a great start and right now the crop really looks good but there is drier weather forecast for July. It’s all a theory now, and the funds are trading for the good crop. However, if things change toward the end of the month and hot and dry takes over, they will flip very quickly.      The July 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 16 cents higher than the September 2025 contract a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 25th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans      Soybean market got some good news Friday morning. The government announced new EPA renewable fuel volume obligations of 7.12 billion Rins in 2026 and 7.5 billion in 2027.  This was much higher than expected from industry recommendations earlier this year.  Soybean oil traded limit up on the move.      This is incredibly important for soybean demand as it will increase soybean crush significantly. Also too, it helps restrict the import of used cooking oil which had been used to produce soybean diesel. In effect, it’s a big play on US value added agriculture that will help soybean demand almost immediately.        The July 2025 soybean contract is currently priced .5 cents above the August 2025 contract considered neutral for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat      Wheat is the whipping boy of agricultural prices with SRW Ontario cash values in the $6.25 range as of June the 13th. Interestingly enough, American wheat is now some of the cheapest in the world and this has boosted American exports. The Russian crop is about the same as last year, not quite as good helping keeping the status quo on wheat price. Keep in mind the geopolitical concerns happening now with Iran and Israel as well as Ukraine and Russia will always serve as a powder keg for wheat prices going forward.      Ontario wheat continues to March toward the finish line generally speaking, the crop looks good but of course you never know with wheat. It is the only crop we as farmers we expose to four different seasons and quality is a big issue. At the present time there are issues with stripe in the wheat and producers will continue to watch this as we head into harvest.  The Canadian dollar gaining 2 cents over the last 30 days also hurt cash prices in Ontario. There is no question then Ontario wheat farmers will be looking for fresh news in the wheat market going into July. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Canadian dollar has been on a winning streak of late. With its current value of .7354 US, we are a solid 4 cents above where it dropped to on February 8th after the announcement of tariffs.  This has had a mitigating effect on Ontario cash prices and

US and the World It is full speed ahead. It is that time of year when planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. In fact, good weather has made for great progress that may ultimately lead two bin busting crops. As of May, the 12th 62% of the US corn had been planted 15% ahead of last year’s pace.  However, as we all know we have been here before and one never knows how the final yields will be at this point in the crop year. Needless to say, a good start is a good thing and could likely lead to even bigger crops in 2025. The USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report on May the 12th. USDA predicted some big crops in their May 12th report. The USDA estimated new corn crop production at 15.82 billion bushels this year based on a yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre. This was above pre report estimates. The planted acreage is set at 95.3 million acres up 5% from a year ago. Total domestic usage is set at 12.785 billion bushels and corn exports for new crop are projected at 2.675 billion bushels.  Globally, USDA estimated Brazil’s corn production to be at 130 MMT with Argentina coming in at 50 MMT. On the soybean side of the ledger new crop soybean production was estimated at 4.34 billion bushels using a 52.5 bushel per acre national average yield. This was based on a US planted soybean acreage of 83.5 million acres. Total usage for soybeans domestically in the United States is set at 4.415 billion bushels with the forecast ending stocks of 295 million bushels. From a global perspective, USDA is estimating the next Brazilian soybean crop to be at 175 MMT and Argentina to come in at 48.5 MMT.  US wheat production is set to increase in the new crop year to 1.921 billion bushels an increase from 1.858 billion bushels last May. There was also an increase globally in world wheat production for this coming year. On May 16th soybean futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  Corn and wheat futures were lower.   July 2025 corn futures was at $4.43 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.35 bu.  The July 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.50/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.35 bu. The July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.25 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.73 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $5.87 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of April 18th closed at $62.49/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $64.68/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.00/gallon, lower than the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on May 16th, 2025, was .7154 US, up vs the .7217 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario Ontario crops are being planted quickly this spring. Corn and soybean were planted starting in late April and continuing as of May the 16th. Planting was somewhat delayed in eastern Ontario versus southwestern Ontario but it’s catching up as wet weather is affecting parts of southwestern Ontario. However, it must be said that we are off to a good start which should weigh on new crop basis levels as we move ahead in 2025. The 1.1 million acres of Ontario winter wheat looks good and will surely be heading out in the first couple weeks of June where another fungicide application will be made to many of these fields. Wheat prices for delivery on this crop in July are currently around $6.24 a bushel which is exciting to almost no one. At these current levels it might be hard to sustain Ontario wheat production at this level going into 2026. One of the reasons that Ontario wheat prices are at this level is the value of Canadian dollar currently at .7154 US which is up from month ago. This is always good for Ontario cash prices to have a lower dollar and it continues.  Despite shipping lots of Ontario corn to Europe basis levels have softened into mid-May for Ontario corn. However, it is only by a few cents a bushel. Ontario soybean basis levels have actually been maintained or increased slightly probably due to the drop of a penny in the Canadian dollar. As always, Ontario soybean and wheat cash prices will be most sensitive to a Canadian dollar change. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.10 to $1.49 over the July 2025 corn futures on May 16th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.34 over Dec 2025 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.98 to $3.20 over the July 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.84 to $3.11 over the November 2025 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.17 bu. range. For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.24 bu. range. On May 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.62/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line It is a very volatile time, but we are at the lower end of the price spectrum. Clearly, as we go forward there is so much risk on the table with regard to how this US crop will fare in 2025.  Keep in mind last year December corn dove down to about $3.95 a bushel during the summer, and it is not without a path down to $3.70 this year. However, we all know that things rebounded for farm prices later. We are still early in the game with regard to how crop weather will impact our crop prices going forward. The timing is now for seasonality in the grain market.  For instance, we know the prices are at the lower end now, but we also know that for new crop marketing mid-June is usually the best time to contract corn and that is coming. The same can be said for soybeans although that is a little bit later as August is so important to pod set in the beans. Keep abreast of the markets very closely over the next month and have market standing orders ready. History tells us will usually see price appreciation. It is also no secret the geopolitics is playing a big part in grain movement throughout the world in 2025.  Tariffs from the United States are certainly affecting not only grain movement in the United States and Canada but also around the world especially into China. Our American friends might think of this as shuffling the deck with grain going other places, but often times that means replacing Canadian grain in our traditional markets. It is difficult to see an overly bullish scenario from a farmer perspective because as farmers we always want prices to go higher. Keep in mind that at these relatively low levels over the last 18 months grain demand has been building. Cheap makes that much of a difference. What it will mean going ahead is that if there is even a slight reduction in production in the United States this year it will cause price appreciation. Needless to say, marketing needs to be refocused constantly. Commodity Specific Comments Corn King corn has a bit of a problem. We are near contract lows in fact December corn is within six cents of a contract low as of May the 16th and the September contract actually reached a contract low.  Of course, a lot of this crop which could have been contracted for way over $5 last winter. As it is now, here we are. As always with this time of year, it is a very fluid situation. With the USDA predicting 95.3 million acres of corn at 181 bushels per acre any movement in these numbers will cause gyrating ending stocks. For instance, the new crop ending stock prediction as of now is 1.8 billion bushels, if the yield goes lower this year it could get down to 1.3 billion bushels. Consequently, if the yield is higher than 181 which is probably entirely unlikely, we go higher. Crop weather, as always will be key in this discussion. The July 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 20.75 cents higher than the September 2025 contract a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2025 corn futures contract is at the 26th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Conab and the Argentinian crop rating agency increased old crop soybean production in their last report. The Argentinian agency put Argentinian soybeans up 117 million bushels and Conab raised Brazilian production by 20 million bushels.  Clearly, big crops are getting bigger, and this will likely weigh in the market. However, keep in mind that American soybean acreage number could go lower and a corresponding decrease in yield this year will send ending stocks down even farther. It is a mixed bag. An interesting aspect of soybean demand is American biofuel demand which is subject to government regulation. On May 15th they looked like these regulations were going to be lowered for soybeans and that caused a limit decrease in soybean oil pressuring soybean prices. However, the Americans have actually used more soybeans for that mandate than had been planned for and government’s final decision on this is yet to be made. Simply put, it’s probably a good thing for soybean demand and a good thing for soybean prices all in. The July 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 4.5 cents above the August 2025 contract considered neutral to bearish for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Wheat prices have always had a hard time in the last few years of finding a friend. Wheat prices are off their contract lows but there still at very low levels as we head into June. In fact, wheat production in the United States is set to increase which just adds to the moribund nature of eastern Canadian wheat prices.  The question at a certain point is how low are low prices or how low is low?

US and the World      April and May are always a busy month on the farm whether that be in Ontario or in the greater North American corn belt.  Planters are rolling and auto steer buttons are being pressed as weather is improving and acres are being planted.  As of April, the 13th, 6% of the US corn crop and 3% of the US soybean crop in the ground.  It’s early of course but it is a start, and those numbers will certainly be rising in the weeks to come as we go into May.  Earlier, on April the 10th the USDA released their latest WASDE report.      In this report there was a change in demand for corn, but the production numbers and old crop carryout numbers held their status quo.  On the demand side of the equation feed and residual use was 5.75 billion bushels which was down 25 million bushels from the last Market Trends report.  Ethanol usage was the same as last month and total domestic corn usage was forecast at 12.64 billion bushels which was down 25 million bushels from the last report.  Corn exports were up 100 million bushels to 2.550 billion bushels with old crop ending stocks down 75 million bushels to 1.465 billion bushels.      It was a quiet report on the soybean side of the equation. For instance, the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 375 million bushels.  Globally, the USDA actually boosted ending stocks by 1.06 MMT, to 122.47 MMT.  The Brazilian and Argentinian soybean production was left unchanged at 169 MMT and 49 MMT respectively.   On the wheat side of the ledger US imports rose 10 million bushels to 150 million bushels. Wheat exports were down 50 million bushels to 820 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were up 27 million bushels to 846 million bushels.                       On April 18th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report.  May 2025 corn futures was at $4.82 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.66 bu.  The May 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.36/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $10.32 bu. The May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.06 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.33 a bushel.      The nearby oil futures as of April 18th closed at $64.68/barrel up vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $61.99/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, the same as recorded in the last Market Trends Report.      The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 18th, 2025, was .7217 US, up vs the .7034 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 2.75%. Ontario      In Ontario the 1.1 million acres of wheat is being side dressed with nitrogen as we go into the end of April.  The weather has been somewhat unusually cool but precipitation has been limited and this has led too much progress being done on the nitrogen. At the same time there is some corn planted in Ontario in the deep south west. However, this is very limited in scope and done on some of the very lighter soils. As we reached the end of April with good weather corn planting will be widespread across the province.      Basis levels for grains have been maintained or eroded slightly from the last Market Trends report.  There is still lots of old crop corn around in Ontario, but it is being actively shipped out of the province into export markets in the United Kingdom and Europe. The basis levels have been slightly affected by the increase in the Canadian dollar of approximately $0.03 over the last month. As always, this has a greater effect on the cash price of soybeans and wheat in Ontario.      The value of the Canadian dollar will likely remain the biggest fixture in Ontario grain basis for the immediate future. However, keep in mind that basis levels change in Ontario depending on the amount of crops sold as well as exports and domestic demand. Further to that, as we look out much further crop size in Ontario and crop health will affect basis levels as we go on through the year.  Producers need to be vigilant of cash grain basis levels and their seasonal tendencies.     Old crop corn basis levels are $1.05 to $1.59 over the May 2025 corn futures on April 18th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.00 to $1.35 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.38 to $3.15 over the May 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.52 to $3.12 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.43 bu. range.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.68 bu. range.     On April 4th the US replacement price for corn was $6.72/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line      Increasingly, it’s about the weather. I know that this is an old story, but it still matters always.  At the present time we have a wet outlook in the eastern corn belt and a much drier outlook in the western corn belt. However, it is early and it’s really not affecting things too much with regard to prices. Even very dry and warm Kansas is not pushing wheat prices higher. Needless to say, let’s get to the end of May and weather forecasts will likely become even more telling for future price direction.  This must always be in the back of producers minds.      Keep in mind that weather is very important but also this is 2025 and we have the biggest trade war ongoing in our memory. We do not know the next move in the trade war, but we can easily surmise that American farmers will be protected like they were the last time around in the first Trump administration.  It’s likely there will be government cheques written to the farmers which will be positive for US grain production and negative to price.  In Ontario and Quebec that will be bearish news for grain prices.      It might be April in Ontario but keep in mind that we are harvesting soybeans in Argentina and Brazil.  The Argentinian soybean harvest is approximately 5% complete as of April the 14th. This typically accelerates pretty quickly in April and ends in early May.  This Argentinian crop has been rated 81% good to excellent so we’ll need to keep abreast of harvest results in the next few weeks. It was hot and dry earlier and this may manifest itself in a little bit of a deterioration in this crop.       We should not ignore the corn rally that had taken place recently. Looking back at harvest time market sentiment was pretty poor and envisioning $6 corn in our future was so far away.  However, the reality was we did see quite a price appreciation after harvest and in some ways that continues as corn demand is extremely strong and basis values have been rising in the United States.  In Argentina the corn harvest is continuing with 28% of it being harvested as of April the 16th.  USDA has placed its estimate at 49 MMT with some Argentinian agencies slightly lower. Commodity Specific Comments Corn      On March 28th corn futures were $4.42 a bushel but on April the 11th about 11 trading days later it reached a high of $4.90 a bushel. In terms of a rally this was extremely impressive and there were lots of farmers selling’s $5.00 cash corn for July in many locations in the United states.  The question is can we get to $5 futures in December corn?       Well, the USDA said on March 31st Americans will plant 95.3 million acres of corn. However, if you mix some bad weather into this will we get there?   Anything less than that will certainly create the possibility for price movement into the $5 area for December 2025 corn. Simply put, we are at the start of the growing season and there’s lots of risk ahead and with that lots of possibility of price volatility.     The May 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 6.75 cents below the July 2025 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 corn futures contract is at the 35th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans      Keep in mind the USDA predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans for this crop year. That is 4% less than last year and with that there should be greater risk of lower soybean supplies especially if we have hot and dry weather come to us in August. However, we are so far away from that now.  Both corn and soybean futures have had a tailwind pushing them lately. It’s hard to say whether that will keep up or not.      We all know that tariffs have been tough on soybean prices however when China announced tariffs on American soybeans, we did see a rise of approximately $0.75 in soybean futures. It’s hard to substantiate that with any type of common-sense intuitive credibility. However, we know that markets hate uncertainty and maybe that’s why it happened in that way. Needless to say, even though much will depend on our growing season with regard to soybean prices, the bad geopolitics against soybeans remain.  We will move ahead both looking at growing conditions and any other geopolitical moves by the United States, China and Brazil.        The May 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 9.75 cents below the July 2025 contract considered neutral to bullish for soybean demand.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat      It is dry in American wheat country. Kansas is very dry and it has been almost hot in some places.   You would think at some point it would have an effect on wheat prices. However, so far the market has yawned with wheat not going up in a similar fashion as corn and soybeans.  As per usual, any particular concern with the wheat pri

US and the World      It is that time of year again. Early April is often the time when corn planters get pulled out of the shop ready to go to the field. It is also a time of optimism spurned on by the warm touch of the sun on your back. Every year we plant with hopes of good things to come on our way to seeing the frost on the pumpkins come October. 2025 is no different than any other year in that vein however, our geopolitical world is completely different than it has been before and as farmers looking out on our fields this spring there is much greater risk on our horizon.  As we move ahead, we should at least start where the USDA says we must. On March 31st they released their always big March 31st Prospective Plantings report.      The March 31st report is one of the big three of the year sandwiched between the final numbers from USDA in early January and actual planted numbers that we get at the end of June.   This year USDA came out with a projection of 95.3 million acres of corn and 83.5 million acres of soybeans. This was 5% more corn than we had last year and 4% less soybeans the 2024. In the scope of things if we look back over the last several weeks of projections from various pundits, we are in the ballpark. Everybody thought we would have more corn and less soybeans, the question always was how much more.  95.3 million acres of corn seems reasonable although earlier projections had been all the way up to 97 million acres.       On the corn stocks side of the equation USDA pegged total corn domestic stocks at 8.15 billion bushels which is down 2% from last year. On the soybean side soybean stocks as of March 1st were 1.91 billion bushels which is 4% higher than last year. US wheat in all positions was at 1.24 billion bushels on March 1st which was up 14% from one year ago.                       On April 4th soybeans and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report.   Corn futures were slightly higher.  May 2025 corn futures were at $4.60 a bushel.  Dec 2025 corn were at $4.46 bu.  The May 2025 soybean futures stood at $10.16/bu.  The November 2025 soybean futures was at $9.77 bu. The May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.84 a bushel with the September 2025 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel.      The nearby oil futures as of April 4th closed at $61.99/barrel down vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $67.18/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/barrel, up versus the $2.00 a US gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.      The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 4th, 2025, was .7034 US, up vs the .6950 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate was maintained at 2.75%. Ontario     In Ontario the long winter is finally coming to an end. There has certainly been challenges in the snowbelt regions of Ontario the past few months. There have also been incredible problems with ice storms in late March and early April. Generally speaking, the 1.1 million acres of winter wheat looks unscathed. However, there are always a few problems such as damage from snow mold and heavy ponded water showing up in early April.  Farmers await warmer weather.     Looking ahead, we need to estimate how many acres will be going into corn and soybeans come this spring. 2.3 million acres seems to be one of the estimates for grain corn to be planted in the coming weeks. However, that always will be subject to change depending on the right type of weather for planting. Soybeans are set to come in less than 3 million acres this year down about 7.8% according to Statistics Canada.  At the end of the day, the crop mix never varies much in Ontario because of our finite acres. However, an uneven spring will always mean more soybeans and less corn. Basis fluctuations will play off that.      Ontario basis levels for corn have been maintained from a month ago and even slightly increased. This reflects the Canadian dollar as well as the status quo in corn futures compared to a few weeks ago.  On the new crop side, the corn basis has changed very little. Needless to say, part of the basis sustenance in corn has to do with several ships being loaded for Europe in the next few weeks and months.  EU tariffs on American corn and soybeans enhances our export opportunities. The soybean basis has decreased slightly for both old and new crop based largely on a decline in futures and a slight rise in the Canadian dollar.     Old crop corn basis levels are $1.05 to $1.61 over the May 2025 corn futures on April 4th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.35 over Dec 2025 futures.   The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $2.43 to $3.20 over the May 2025 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.63 to $3.12 over the November 2025 futures.   Ontario SRW wheat prices are in the $6.28 bu. range.  For July 2025 new crop the bid is in the $6.55 bu. range.     On April 4th the US replacement price for corn was $6.58/bushel.  You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line      Where do we go from here?  Sometimes it is hard to imagine the way it used to be with the world trading in an ordered fashion. However, with the election of the Trump presidency that has all changed and the imposition of global tariffs has thrown several monkey wrenches into the machinery of moving goods globally. On top of that the trading relationship between the United States and Canada has been changed forever. The movement of grain will also be altered radically.       The temptation is always to yell fire in a crowded theatre. However, the theatre has already burned down and to some extent Rome is burning. Theorizing on changes that may take place in the coming days weeks and months is very difficult to do as it depends on the musings of the American President. However, despite it all there will be growing marketing opportunities.  With the world trading system broken, it’s just hard to tell where they will come from.      For instance, at the end of the day the world needs to eat, and grain will be moved, and food will be made. Even though the corn market has buckled under the tariff announcements it is largely resisted the temptation to go down further. Soybeans on the other hand are a different animal largely dependent on exports which are disappearing. It also doesn’t help that the Chinese put counter tariffs on American soybeans.  It is hard to blame them with the Americans putting tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the United States at 54%.  We have the biggest trade war in history and it’s starting out very brutal.      The American response to their own farmers is to ramp up the American subsidy theme park yet again. At the present time there is $10 billion in direct payments to American farmers in the offing. More is probably to follow.  That points to an American administration which is digging in for the long haul, whatever that might be. Commodity Specific Comments Corn      Corn seems to be above the fray with regard to tariff price action.  There have been all kinds of bad news thrown at the corn market with regard to acres and oversupply, but the price keeps going sideways.  On the global front the corn balance sheet is tighter than usual. Mexico the number one buyer of US corn seems intent on working with the Trump administration.      The increased corn number from USDA has within it acres which are more fringe than prime Illinois corn country.  Keep this in mind as we go forward because we’ll probably start out with the USDA projected yield of 181 bushels per acre. This will be difficult to get on these many corn acres. We did not get there last year.     The May 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 7 cents below the July 2025 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 corn futures contract is at the 29th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans      The USDA did what it did with regard to a lower soybean acreage number and this should be positive for soybean prices. However, President Trump did what he did with regard to tariffs on China and we got the obligatory Chinese counter tariffs on US soybeans sending the market crashing down in the bean complex.  It would seem obvious, there’s even less enthusiasm for planting beans now.      In many ways that holds the potential for a further deterioration in soybean acres and prices especially when it comes to potential weather problems. If we have a wet and cool spring that might change things and get soybean acres back. However, if that doesn’t happen soybean acreage and morale might get even lower.        The May 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 16 cents below the July 2025 contract considered bearish for soybeans.  Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat      The wheat market almost never seems to be making sense.  Gaps in supply are almost constantly filled by worldwide production, which continues. At the moment wheat has been affected by the tariff war with some countries such as South Korea, Japan and Mexico considering counter tariffs which may affect the wheat trade. Keep in mind, wheat movement is usually about “cheap” and that will continue.  Cold weather in the American plains in the next few weeks has the capacity to damage American wheat and take prices higher.       In Ontario producers are gauging the health of their wheat crop after a particularly difficult winter. In the next few weeks w

US and the World      It is that time of year again. Spring always represents a time of hope for North American farmers as we get ready to go to the fields to plant another crop. There certainly will be much anticipation this year as we have markets rife with uncertainty.  As the calendar turns […] The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is February and for the most part the greater North American corn belt is frozen with snow and ice infiltrating almost everywhere. It is a time when not much is happening in the production fields as people look toward any hints of warmer weather in the future. In Ontario, […] The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World     2025 dawned with farmers hoping for better markets. 2024 was a year where prices retreated almost every month until harvest time.  Since then, there’s been a bit of a bounce back but there is a long way to go. … The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is the end of the calendar year and what a year it is been. We have seen record crops coming out of the United States and big crops growing in the fields of South America. This is all… The post Market Trends Report – December & January 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been a beautiful harvest season across the greater North American corn belt. As of November, the 12th 95% of US corn had been harvested and 96% of American soybeans.  In both of these cases it is ahead… The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again when you can almost hear the noise from the fields.  Combines are rolling across the great North American corn belt. At the same time planters are rolling in Brazil attempting to put… The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again across the great North American corn belt. It is early but harvest is starting almost everywhere. In the United States USDA has estimated as of September 8th 5% of the American corn… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.