Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford

“If you’re trying to find the very best growth businesses on the planet – a benchmark isn’t a sensible place to start.” Baillie Gifford’s chief executive Tim Campbell explains the advantages of our style of active investing, the importance of long-termism and how AI fits into our process. Background:In April, Tim Campbell became Baillie Gifford’s chief executive and one of its managing partners. Earlier in his career, he was an investment manager before switching to Client Services, where he led our Emerging Markets Clients Team.In this podcast, he explores how our investment teams adopted a conviction-led approach that centres on each company's merits, regardless of its weighting in benchmark stock indices. He describes what we mean by long-termism and the importance of having the right incentives in place. And he explains why being “out of step” with some market trends helps us serve both society and our clients’ interests.The second half of the show focuses on changes afoot, ranging from further private company investments – including a recent holding in AI lab Anthropic – to our own adoption of artificial intelligence technologies and an exploration of new ways to access our strategies. Resources:Baillie Gifford: Actual investorsDisruption WeekDrayton and MackenzieOne Useful Thing: Ethan Mollick’s blogOur historyPrivate company investmentsShort Briefings on Long Term ThinkingThe Friction Project Companies mentioned include:AnthropicAmazonMercadoLibreNVIDIARunway AITimecodes00:00 Introduction02:10 From music in the Middle East to investing in Edinburgh03:15 Making the move to Client Services05:00 Rewriting the investment playbook06:30 Client hunger for benchmark agnosticism07:40 Active versus passive investing10:20 A mutual understanding with clients11:55 Drawdowns and hold discipline14:30 Defining long-termism17:00 Private company investments19:30 Investing in Anthropic and Runway AI24:55 ‘The mission doesn’t change’27:35 Book choice

Inside ownership can give companies an advantage when it comes to long-term growth. That includes having a leader or family with a substantial stake in the business. And it also covers firms with farsighted backers, such as philanthropic foundations, which encourage management to take the long view. From airline Ryanair to hearing aid specialist Demant, investment manager Jenny Davis explores how having skin in the game drives firms to act with persistence. Background:Jenny Davis is a Baillie Gifford partner and an investment manager in our International Alpha Team. She specialises in companies based outside the US that offer ‘quality growth’ – combining the potential for outperformance with durability.In this podcast, she explores how persistent, inside ownership works to the advantage of companies she has backed. Examples include firms with founders who have retained a significant stake, those with long-serving hired leaders rewarded with shares and other long-term incentives, companies with family owners where control has passed between generations, and businesses backed by a foundation or holding company with long-term objectives.Companies covered include:Discovery – the health insurer that has gone global, using data to nudge customers into improving their fitness.Ryanair – the European airline that benefited from its chief executive’s obsession with controlling costs.Technoprobe – the family-run ‘probe card’ specialist whose ability to spot faults in computer chips has kept pace with semiconductors’ increasing complexity.Demant – the hearing aid specialist backed by a charitable foundation, which has invested in getting closer to its customers.Scout24 – the German property portal whose independence Baillie Gifford helped preserve, allowing it to pursue a successful long-term growth strategy.Resources: Baillie GiffordA new age of discovery: the case for international (restricted to certain clients)Pioneers: 8 Principles of Business Longevity from Immigrant EntrepreneursShort Briefings on Long Term Thinking  Companies mentioned include:DemantDiscovery LtdFerrariHermèsInvestor ABLVMHNovo NordiskRichemontRyanairScout24ShimanoTechnoprobeTSMCTimecodes:00:00 Introduction01:55  The “scenic route” to asset management03:00  Focusing on quality growth04:35  Persistence’s enduring edge05:45  Different types of inside ownership06:30 Discovery’s healthy nudges08:10  Adrian Gore’s visionary leadership09:45  How Michael O’Leary turbocharged Ryanair12:45  Ryanair’s scale advantage14:00  Technoprobe’s family leadership16:25  Engaging with Richemont’s Johan Rupert18:30  Demant’s long-term philanthropic backer20:55  Providing persistence’s benefits to Scout2422:55  Selling out of Credit Suisse24:30  Persistence and alignment26:10  Book choice

From microloans for farmers to free savings accounts for the ‘unbanked’ to customised insurance for gig workers to a cheaper, faster way for migrants to send money to loved ones: a growing range of services is helping many of the world’s least advantaged citizens increase their financial resilience. Previously, banks and other traditional lending institutions overlooked these customers. But as impact director Ed Whitten explains, by backing the companies now involved, you have an opportunity to improve people’s lives and achieve strong growth. Background:Ed Whitten is an impact director in Baillie Gifford’s Positive Change Strategy. Its dual objective is to provide our clients with attractive returns while contributing to a more inclusive, healthy world. Whitten’s role is to ensure that the companies it holds fulfil the second part of that pledge. In this episode, he explores the topic of financial inclusion, explaining why the companies involved need to do more than simply provide access to loans, insurance and money transfers. Topics include how firms can use data and apps to deliver customised services that address specific people’s needs while protecting them from indebtedness. Whitten also explains how conversations with the companies Positive Change backs can nudge them towards better outcomes, such as providing customers with better financial education. And he explores the importance of helping people gain financial resilience against the effects of climate change and other events that could otherwise devastate their livelihoods. Companies covered include: Nubank – the digital-only bank used by most Brazilian adults that’s also growing in Mexico and Colombia. Grab – the south-east Asian ride-hailing and delivery service that provides loans and insurance to drivers and merchants using its platform. Remitly – the remittance service offering migrants a quick, low-cost and reliable way to transfer money to family and friends. HDFC Bank – the Indian lender expanding its rural branch network to explain face-to-face how its services can put customers on a better financial path. Resources:Case study: MaligaNubank’s Beyond Access studyPositive Conversations 2024The Song of the CellTrip Notes: Brazil (UK version / Ex-UK version) Companies mentioned include:ChimeBank Rakyat IndonesiaGrabHDFC BankMercadoLibreNubankRemitly Timecodes:00:00 Introduction02:05  From the British Army to impact investing03:40  A sustainable, inclusive, healthy world04:25  The different types of financial inclusion05:40  Eyes open to the risks of indebtedness06:45  Volatile repayment rates07:35  Beyond accessibility: the personalisation of products09:05  Partnering with CGAP and other development bodies10:25   Nubank’s Caixinha money boxes12:45   Nubank’s Mexican banking licence14:15   Ensuring growth comes with impact15:20   Grab’s loans and insurance16:40   Grab’s data-driven approach to risk19:45   The fast growth of remittances 21:25   Remitly’s cheaper money transfers22:35  Gaining market share from Western Union23:40  HDFC Bank’s expanding rural branch network24:55  Financial inclusion in advanced economies26:55  The ‘lucrative customers of the future’28:15   Book choice 

Emerging markets are reshaping the global economy, and a convergence of powerful, long-term trends is accelerating this shift. These include surging demand for commodities, exploding middle-class spending power and booming inter-regional trade. Investment specialist Andrew Keiller reveals some of the standout growth companies positioned to capitalise on this transformation and why now might be the perfect time to take advantage. Background:Andrew Keiller is a partner in Baillie Gifford and an investment specialist in our Emerging Markets Clients Team.In this episode, he discusses how some of the fastest-growing developing economies are driving change in the world and the forces that could further hasten that trend. The discussion builds on his recent paper, Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world, which identifies long-term structural shifts tilting the odds in favour of standout companies in Asia, Latin America and eastern Europe. In the podcast, he expands on this by identifying some of the companies that could be big winners, including:the lithium miner SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile), which is set to benefit from a mismatch in supply and demand for the critical ingredient to electric car batteries and other energy storage systems the South Korean high bandwidth memory chipmaker, SK Hynix, whose products are critical to training artificial intelligence systems at speedthe ‘super-app’ operator Kaspi.kz, which provides everything from bill payments, banking and travel bookings to shopping, maps and messaging  the Singaporean ecommerce, fintech and gaming conglomerate Sea, whose chief executive has ambitions to extend into further sectorsChina’s biggest coffee chain, Luckin Coffee, which is giving the country’s 1.4 billion citizens a passion for the beverage with its ever-changing menu of inventive recipes In addition, Keiller discusses the implications of President Trump’s tariffs and why many Chinese companies still offer an exciting investment opportunity. Resources: Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing worldEmerging markets: our philosophyEmerging markets: rethinking the opportunityFinding high-calibre growth companies in emerging markets (podcast)Luckin Coffee: looking forwardKaspi's super-appSouth-east Asia’s rising export stars (podcast)SQM: powering the futureThe Time-Travelling Economist by Charlie Robertson Companies mentioned include:Kaspi.kzLuckin CoffeeSeaSK HynixSQMTimecodes:00:00  Introduction01:35  Baillie Gifford beginnings and a trip to Hong Kong03:15  Transformational trends playing out to 2050 and beyond05:05  US exceptionalism and multiple spheres of influence07:25  Rising trade between emerging market nations08:35  Redesigning Chinese e-scooters for Vietnam and the Philippines10:15  The possibility of reduced reliance on the US dollar11:40  Increasing demand for raw materials and semiconductors12:35 Digital-first companies and underserved communities 14:45  Four types of firms capitalising on long-term growth factors16:25  SQM’s lithium mines in Chile’s Atacama Desert17:55  Lithium’s long-term commodity cycle opportunity18:45  SK Hynix’s high bandwith memory and its role in AI20:40  Kaspi.kz’s Kazakh super-app21:40  Kaspi’s expansion plans in Uzbekistan and beyond23:00  Sea’s founder Forrest Li and importance of culture24:30  Luckin Coffee’s huge domestic opportunity25:25  Luckin’s taste for invention26:40  Investing in China amid a trade clash28:50  The risk of underexposure29:40  Book choice30:55  Investing in Africa

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to "turbocharge" Britain's growth strategy in response to new US tariffs. His government is prioritising key sectors poised to drive prosperity, including advanced manufacturing, AI and the creative industries. Baillie Gifford's head of UK equity, Iain McCombie, discusses some of the companies already excelling in these sectors how they can prosper over the long term despite the current uncertainty.

Are European stocks coming back into favour? After years of underperformance, many of the continent’s companies appear undervalued when compared to their historical prices and US counterparts. Investment manager Stephen Paice suggests that a group of growth-focused stocks could be among the biggest winners if sentiment shifts, and he identifies a handful of places they are thriving.

Three technologies – quantum computing, reusable rockets and nuclear fusion – could change the trajectory of human progress. Find out how a trio of private companies is bringing them closer to fruition.

From smarter robots to intelligently designed drugs, Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar discusses some of the transformations that will define the years ahead.

The US’s transformational upgrade of its drainage, power and road networks is a long-term investment opportunity hiding in plain sight. In this podcast, Michael Taylor reveals some of the outstanding companies involved and makes the case that the markets have yet to fully appreciate the advantages working in their favour. Background: Michael Taylor is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s US Alpha strategy. In this Disruption Week briefing, he explains why years of neglect coupled with the destructive consequences of wild weather and our insatiable appetite for data-processing power have led the US to embark on a massive renewal of its physical infrastructure.  Taylor suggests that many of the companies creating long-term value benefit from supply advantages, which help them defend their commoditised products’ prices. These range from ownership of gravel quarries, which are difficult to get planning permission for, to the use of a gigantic, portable plastic drain-making machine. In addition, Taylor discusses what a second Trump presidency might mean for the sector and why finding standout companies involves travelling off the beaten track. Resources: Disruption WeekBuilding back: the great US infrastructure opportunitySpotting the winners from the great US infrastructure renaissance Companies mentioned include: Advanced Drainage SystemsEatonComfort Systems USAMartin MariettaNVIDIAStella-Jones Timecodes:00:00 Introduction1:35    Exceptional businesses confronting an exceptional problem3:20   The US v global infrastructure opportunity4:35   Donald Trump’s second presidency6:40   The benefits of patience7:35   Wild weather8:45   Investing in Advanced Drainage Systems11:05  Labour shortages12:15  Stella-Jones’s wooden telegraph poles14:05  Tree-spotter specialists16:15  Martin Marietta’s supply-side advantage18:55  Recycled aggregates’ limitations20:15  Finding US infrastructure investments21:45  Comfort Systems USA and keeping datacentres cool24:20  “Massive in terms of magnitude of spend and duration”

Many of the world’s most exciting, high-growth and disruptive companies are private. Moreover, the entrepreneurs running them are typically keeping them private for longer before trading their shares on public stock exchanges – and in some cases have no plans to do so. Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team seeks out exciting businesses and founders in this space to give our clients access to an increasingly important source of long-term growth. Taking a highly selective approach, it has invested more than $9bn across over 140 firms over the past 12 years. In this podcast, Alexander Nicolier explains how it does so and discusses some of our notable holdings. Background: Alexander Nicolier is an investment manager in our Private Companies Team. In this Disruption Week briefing, he reveals the scale of the opportunity and the increasing impact that the sector’s restless founders and their exceptional companies are delivering.From SpaceX to Bending Spoons, Epic Games to ByteDance, one of the distinguishing features of these pioneering firms is that they’ve been able to choose their shareholders. Nicolier reveals why Baillie Gifford’s patient approach and reputation have helped make us a favoured partner.He also reveals how deep research helps him and his colleagues embrace the uncertainty that can be involved with backing companies at an earlier stage of growth than many public market stocks. And he introduces some of his team’s most recent investments, including the immersive experience specialist Cosm and the next-generation computing company Tenstorrent. Resources: Alexander Nicolier profileArmand Spitz: seller of starsBaillie Gifford Private Companies hubDisruption WeekPrivate companies: investing in trailblazers The hidden cost of software Companies mentioned include: Bending SpoonsByteDanceCosmDisneyEpic GamesLoftMercadoLibreMetaNuBankOdditySpaceXStarlinkTempusTencentTenstorrentTesla  Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction1:30    What’s often misunderstood about private companies2:40   Relationship building in Brazil and Colombia3:40   Why reputation matters5:35   “Look out for a gringo”6:30   Private markets’ scale7:00   Our clients’ advantage9:25   SpaceX and uncertainty12:40  Dealing with setbacks13:45  Bending Spoons’ business model16:50  Cosm’s ‘shared reality’ experience18:50  Tenstorrent and Jim Keller’s talent magnetism20:20 The state of the IPO market21:55  Why Epic Games has stayed private25:00  Disney’s $1.5bn stake in Epic Games26:40 “Too big to ignore”

China is transitioning from a property-led economy to one focused on advanced manufacturing. It already leads the world in electric car production and the batteries that power them. And it’s also a growing force in renewables, robotics and biotech. Investment manager Helen Xiong discusses some of the growth companies involved, why concerns about overcapacity seem overstated and why rising trade barriers have implications for stocks traded inside and outside China. Background:Helen Xiong is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Global Alpha Team and recently became joint deputy manager of The Monks Investment Trust. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking she discusses why global growth investors can’t ignore China even if they don’t directly own stakes in any of its companies.She describes how the country has made ‘advanced manufacturing’ a strategic priority, laying the foundations for future growth. This has already yielded results, with companies such as the electric vehicle maker Li Auto and battery producer CATL creating long-term value for shareholders – with the prospect of more to come.Xiong suggests that ‘rising trade barriers’ are one consequence of Western nations’ seeking to protect domestic industries and discusses how she takes this into account when deciding which companies to back. In addition, she considers the implications of Chinese retaliation and what that might mean for some of the US and Europe’s leading exporters.Xiong also shares her view on recent stimulus by the Chinese central bank and government agencies, focusing on signals of a shift that could create long-term shareholder value. Resources: China: finding the new shoots of growthJonathan Haidt: The Righteous Mind – Why Good People are Divided by Politics and Religion More from Helen Xiong:Beyond NVIDIA: investing across the semiconductor ecosystemGlobal Alpha Investor Forum 2024 Companies mentioned include:Li AutoCATL Timecodes:00:00    Introduction1:30      The advantage of being Chinese, African and European3:00      Relationships v individualism5:15      China’s post-Covid economy7:00      Why China matters to global investors8:30      Overcapacity: a feature, not a bug10:15    Brutal competition10:55    Investing in Li Auto13:45    Li Xiang’s attention to detail14:30    The car industry’s iPhone moment16:25    Trade tariffs18:20    Potential Chinese retaliation19:35    Chinese regulators20:35    Stimulus21:35    Focusing on long-term shareholder value22:20    Book choice23:45    Conclusion

Upheaval can create opportunity. Baillie Gifford’s Japan Team seeks out companies that will derive the greatest long-term benefit from transformational forces impacting business and broader society. In this podcast, investment manager Matthew Brett identifies four ‘structural growth’ drivers and the portfolio companies taking advantage of them. Background:Matthew Brett is the investment manager of The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust and our Japanese Fund, as well as co-manager of the Japanese Income Growth Fund. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking he discusses four forces creating long-term growth opportunities: -        Japan’s late embrace of digitalisation-        the rising spending power of its Asian neighbours-        the accelerated adoption of industrial automation-        the unmet health needs of an ageing populationBrett also names some of the Japanese companies driving these changes or otherwise gaining advantage, including ecommerce conglomerate Rakuten, skincare beauty firm Shiseido, machine vision specialist Keyence and Alzheimer’s drug developer Eisai.  Resources:Japan: the next opportunityKohei Saito: Slow Down – How Degrowth Communism Can Save The Earth Companies mentioned include:CalbeeDMG MoriEisaiKeyenceKOSÉPeptiDreamRakutenShiseidoSoftBank Timecodes:00:00    Introduction1:45      From psychology to investment2:25      Changing Japan3:15      Japan’s distinguishing market characteristics4:15      Visiting companies and other equities research6:00      Performance versus the TOPIX8:00      Defining digitalisation8:30      Leaving paper behind10:15    Rakuten’s online enterprise10:50    The advantage of QR barcode payments11:30    Rakuten’s loyalty points scheme12:25    Accelerating automation and industrial robots13:30    DMG Mori’s precision machines14:40   Keyence and robotic vision16:40    China’s chance of catch-up17:40    Rising wealth of Japan’s Asian neighbours19:00    Shiseido’s skincare advantage20:10    Unmet healthcare needs of an ageing population21:30    Testing further uses for Eisai’s Alzheimer’s drug 23:30    PeptiDream’s synthetic peptides24:00    Using AI to put peptides to use25:10    Calbee’s continued innovation26:00    Book choice28:50    Conclusion

Sometimes, you have to take a step back to leap forward. Over the past couple of years, Meta, Amazon, Block and Shopify are among the growth companies to have made efficiency cuts following the pandemic. Gary Robinson, an investor in Baillie Gifford’s US Equity Team, says that’s made them more agile and resilient – qualities that will let them take advantage of artificial intelligence and other opportunities to drive long-term growth. Background: Gary Robinson is joint manager of the Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, a manager of the American Fund and a partner in our firm. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he explores how four leading internet-focused firms have streamlined their operations and reallocated resources to become more adaptable during a period of rapid change.Robinson draws a parallel with companies that made cutbacks after the global financial crisis to suggest that the markets may have underestimated how much growth can be unlocked by leaders taking a hard look at their firm’s spending, organisational structure and business priorities.Robinson suggests that recent efficiency drives will help Shopify, Meta and Amazon pursue AI-related opportunities that could meaningfully increase their earnings. And at Block, efforts to bring two products closer together could help the firm challenge Visa, Mastercard and American Express. Resources: Behind The Tech: Tobi Lütke: CEO and Founder, ShopifyDwarkesh Podcast: Mark Zuckerberg – Llama 3, Open Sourcing $10b Models & Caesar AugustusBent Flyvberg: How Big Things Get DoneCyril Northcote Parkinson: Parkinson’s Law, and Other Studies in Administration More from Gary Robinson: Lessons from evolutionary biologyWhy companies should embrace chaos Companies mentioned include: AmazonBlockMetaNetflixShopify Timecodes: 00:00    Introduction01:40    A background in biochemistry02:55    The appeal of American companies03:30    Parallels with the global financial crisis04:40   Post-Covid efficiency efforts06:25    Addressing overhiring and patched-together processes07:40    Future-proofed businesses08:00    The potential of AI08:10    Shopify and the distraction of side quests10:45    Shopify’s Sidekick assistant12:50    Engineering Shopify’s internal operations14:20    The authority of founder-leaders16:00    Meta’s ‘year of efficiency’18:00    How AI can drive further growth at Facebook and Instagram20:10    Business chatbots on WhatsApp and Messenger21:15    Investing in Block22:30    Capping employee numbers without compromising growth24:40    Square and Cash App’s potential to rival Visa and Mastercard26:35    Meeting Jack Dorsey27:40    Discipline and focus at Amazon29:00    Amazon’s fast-growing advertising business30:20    Generative AI’s trillion-dollar opportunity for AWS31:25    Offloading routine tasks to artificial intelligence32:25    Book recommendation33:40    Outro

Emerging markets have sometimes promised more than they have delivered, but circumstances may be tipping in growth investors’ favour. Will Sutcliffe, head of our Emerging Markets Team, explains why it’s an opportune time to invest in the asset class. Background: Will Sutcliffe is the head of Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Team and co-manager of our Emerging Markets Leading Companies Fund. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he brings his 23 years of experience in the field to explain what makes the specialism different from other types of growth investing. He makes the case that finding exceptional growth companies at attractive valuations is only part of the equation. Investors must be mindful of the broader macroeconomic environment, he explains, to avoid getting caught out by currency swings or spiralling debt costs. This leads him to conclude that recent resilience in emerging market economies could point to a favourable outlook for the asset class’s growth stocks. All this only matters to our portfolios if there are exceptional businesses to invest in, and Sutcliffe argues that the emerging markets are home to an increasing number of world-class companies. They range from the Taiwanese chip maker TSMC to the energy, retail and telecoms conglomerate Reliance Industries. Resources: Emerging markets: why bother?Stock story: PinduoduoSouth-east Asia’s rising export starsJio Financial ServicesNaturaPDD HoldingsPinduoduoReliance IndustriesTemuTSMCGabriel Garcia Marquez: Until August Timecodes:00:00    Introduction01:45    Joining the Emerging Markets Team03:15    A ‘terrifying’ baptism of fire05:00    Emerging markets’ ‘dirty little secret’05:45    Qualifying for emerging markets status06:45    Higher-calibre companies08:00    Macroeconomic resilience09:30    US-China tensions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine12:00    Investing in China13:45    PDD Holding’s Pinduoduo and Temu

A new medicine that can help patients lose 15 per cent of their body weight could have far-reaching consequences for healthcare. Wegovy mimics a hormone the gut releases, reducing appetite and slowing digestion to delay hunger’s return. Research is also underway into other potential health benefits. In this podcast, Baillie Gifford investment manager Ross Mathison discusses its maker, the Danish pharmaceuticals manufacturer Novo Nordisk, which became Europe’s most valuable company in 2023. Background:Ross Mathison is an investment manager in our Global Income Growth Team, co-manager of our Global Income Growth Fund and deputy manager of the Scottish American Investment Company (SAINTS). In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he discusses how medicines that mimic the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) hormone could help tackle the growing problem of weight gain. Forecasts suggest that by 2035, more than half the world’s population will either be overweight or obese. That’s likely to lead to more people suffering associated diseases, putting health budgets under further strain. Novo Nordisk initially researched GLP-1s as a diabetes treatment. The company is the world’s biggest insulin producer, but it’s the release of its weight-loss drug Wegovy that’s transformed its growth prospects. News that medical trials suggest that the therapy could also reduce the likelihood of heart attacks, strokes and other cardiovascular threats among some patients has driven further investor interest. Mathison explains that there could be further health benefits beyond this, how even more effective treatments could follow and why Novo Nordisk’s manufacturing edge and connection to the world’s biggest charitable foundation bode well for its future. Resources:New England Journal of Medicine: Semaglutide trialNovo Nordisk cardiovascular trial press releaseNovo Nordisk kidney trial press releaseNovo Nordisk FoundationWegovyWorld Health Organization obesity factsheetHitting Against the Spin Timecodes:00:00    Introduction1:40      What are GLP-1s?4:00      Scientific breakthrough5:05      Obesity: a disease, not a choice6:45      Novo Nordisk’s drug, Wegovy08:10    Prescription costs

What distinguishes companies that will thrive from those that will perish? In this episode, we explore three traits that mark out the companies set to surge ahead from those more likely to struggle: 1.      They solve real-world problems2.      They are financially strong and disciplined3.      They are highly adaptable Baillie Gifford partner Tim Garratt discusses these characteristics, gives examples of companies that exhibit them and explains why this feels like a once-in-a-generation opportunity to be a long-term growth investor. BackgroundTim Garratt is an investment specialist, overseeing the institutional clients who invest in our Long Term Global Growth strategy and leading our broader client specialist network. He recently co-authored the paper Why growth, why now?, which reaffirms our beliefs about how growth investing can generate attractive returns.In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he discusses how interest rate rises, restricted amounts of capital and geopolitical tensions are causing a stock market shake-out. And he explains why this plays to the advantage of patient investors who focus on the fundamentals when picking growth stocks. Garratt gives examples of how companies, including Netflix, Roblox, Shopify and Amazon, fulfil the criteria we seek. And he explains how Baillie Gifford itself is adapting to the times, exploring the use of machine learning and other tools to hone our investment process.Resources:Why growth, why now?We’re all climate hypocrites nowSee & SprayNetflix engagement report Timecodes:00:00        Introduction1:30           From abundance to limitation03:45        Implications for investors05:20        Real world problems: supply chains07:30        Deere and hi-tech farming09:00        Financial strength and discipline09:50        Netflix and pricing power12:00        Keeping watch on margins14:15        China’s electric vehicle makers16:15        Adaptability and new business models16:50        Roblox adds AI19:30        Microsoft, Amazon and environmental costs21:45        Sea and the importance of culture23:00        How Baillie Gifford is adapting25:05        ‘Why now?’ for growth investing26:55        Book choice

Show notesAmazon and DoorDash take different approaches to bridging the physical and digital worlds. Amazon has built an extensive infrastructure of warehouses, logistics networks and data centres to directly control its operations. DoorDash instead relies on partnerships with restaurants and stores for deliveries, limiting its capital investment. In this podcast, Baillie Gifford investment manager Kirsty Gibson analyses the advantages of each model and how both approaches can pose a disruptive challenge to more traditional businesses. Amazon and DoorDash exemplify two distinct approaches to rooting a business in both the physical and digital worlds. Amazon has done so by investing deeply in physical infrastructure, including its vast logistics operations and data centres. DoorDash, by contrast, has focused on partnering with others to offer meal and grocery deliveries. Baillie Gifford investment manager Kirsty Gibson explores the merits of each approach and discusses how the two companies and others like them can pose a disruptive challenge. BackgroundKirsty Gibson is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s US Equity Growth Team and is joint manager of the American Fund and US Growth Trust.  In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, she explores how a growing number of companies are posing a challenge to incumbents by innovating in both the digital and physical realms. The podcast draws on an interview she gave as part of Baillie Gifford’s Disruption Week 2023 event. In addition to discussing how Amazon and DoorDash put this into practice, Gibson also discusses the chemicals maker Solugen, self-driving lorries pioneer Aurora and electric car maker Rivian, among others. Resources:Where software meets steelDisruption Week 2023 articles and videosGrowth waves: supporting companies and spotting opportunitiesPast podcasts Timecodes:00:00   Introduction1:30      Historical background4:21      Capital-intensive and capital-light approaches5:31      How Amazon blends its physical and digital operations8:33      Rivian’s electric pickup trucks9:57      Solugen: making chemicals with software13:39    DoorDash’s capital-light approach15:45    DashMart distribution centres17:28    Aurora’s autonomous trucking business model20:30   Reinvesting in Meta23:25   Investing with conviction24:18    Ginkgo Bioworks’ potential Follow us via: TwitterLinkedIn Companies mentioned include:AlphabetAmazonAurora InnovationDoorDashGinkgo BioworksMetaNetflixRivianSolugenTeslaTwilio 

China became known as the world’s factory thanks to it offering companies a way to manufacture all kinds of goods at a high quality and relatively low cost. But in recent years, south-east Asian nations, including Vietnam and Indonesia, have begun challenging it for that status. Baillie Gifford investment manager Ben Durrant recently returned from a tour of the region. He discusses some of the long-term growth opportunities he unearthed on his trip. BackgroundBen Durrant invests on behalf of the Pacific Horizon Investment Trust, the Pacific Fund, and our Emerging Markets Equity Team. In this latest episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he explores the factors that led China to become the world’s leading exporter and how its move up the value chain is now creating opportunities for other south-east Asian countries to grasp. Durrant reviews some of his most memorable encounters in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand and reveals which growth companies excited him the most. They include businesses using mined metals to make car batteries, banks serving populations with growing spending power and, perhaps surprisingly, one of the world’s leading catfish exporters.Resources: The Indonesian companies powering the green transitionBen Durrant LinkedIn pageHow Asia WorksHow the World Really WorksPast podcasts Timecodes:00:00        Introduction01:30      China’s success as a low-cost exporter03:15        Land reform’s role04:00        Good quality, low-cost labour05:45        South-east Asian countries’ advantage07:15        Vietnam’s growth opportunity09:30        Vin Hoan: exporting catfish11:45        Sourcing local insights13:30        Indonesia’s move up the value chain16:15        Clusters of expertise in Malaysia18:00        Looking beyond tourism in Thailand20:15        Moving up the value chain22:15        The attraction of growth investing in southeast Asian23:15        Paying attention to macroeconomics24:30        Book recommendation Follow us via:TwitterLinkedIn Companies mentioned include:FPTHyundaiSamsung ElectronicsVinh Hoan

Is the time ripe for Japanese growth stocks? Donald Farquharson is Baillie Gifford’s head of Japanese equities and knows the market better than most. In the latest episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking he draws on a recent visit to the country to explain why conditions seem favourable for a cohort of domestic companies with long-term mindsets. Background There’s a sense of renewed confidence and enthusiasm in the air in Japan. The country is home to the world’s second-largest market for equities after the US, but it doesn’t get a corresponding degree of attention from international investors. The reason is partly because of the nation’s past weak economic performance. But a recovery is underway, and critically, many of its growth stocks have strong balance sheets, big ambitions and a positive story to tell. In this episode, Baillie Gifford partner Donald Farquharson draws on his experience of investing in Japan since 1990 to explain why he’s particularly optimistic about the opportunities ahead for a select group of companies. They include the medical equipment maker Olympus, the car components manufacturer DENSO and the takeover advisory service Nihon M&A Center.He also shares why he thinks some misunderstand Japan and why it’s no coincidence that many of the companies he backs are founder-run.Resources: Discovering the unsung superstars of Japanese technologyFrom Yahoo! to Z Holdings: the evolution of an online pioneerJapan: the small businesses with big opportunitiesInvesting in Japan: distance lends perspectiveDonald Farquharson’s LinkedIn pageAiming High: Masayoshi Son, Softbank Group and Disrupting Silicon ValleyPast podcasts Timecodes:00.00      Introduction01:40        Investing in Japan in the 1990s03:00        ‘Undiscovered’ Japan03:55        How banks and other businesses changed05:30      A sustainable recovery?06:45        An exciting time for growth companies07:45        Strong balance sheets08:15        Olympus and endoscopes09:45        Diversity on the board11:00      Nihon M&A Center and company takeovers12:50        DENSO, a major supplier to Toyota and others14:30        Toyota City, home to one million people15:35        Competition for car batteries16:30      Baillie Gifford’s advantage in Japan17:45        Looking beyond the headlines18:20      Book recommendation: Masayoshi Son and Aiming High19:45        Investing in founder-led firms Follow us via:TwitterLinkedInEmail Companies mentioned include:DENSOKoganei Country ClubNihon M&S CenterOlympusPanasonicROHM SemiconductorSoftbankToyota

What counts as a growth stock is ever-changing. Mark Urquhart shares lessons from 27 years of investing to explain how he decides what to buy and how long to hold as he continues his hunt for outsized returns.  Background: In 1996, our largest investments included oil and gas companies and high street banks. These days, our biggest holdings specialise in computer chips, ecommerce and biotech. We still pursue long-term growth – companies we believe will reach their potential given time. But we find it in different places. In this episode, partner Mark Urquhart explains how he tries to identify companies that can grow for a decade or longer, allowing their sales, profits and share prices to compound along the way. He discusses the changing nature of the businesses that qualify and what gives him the confidence to back maverick founders. Other topics he covers in conversation with managing editor Malcolm Borthwick include lessons from the pandemic and the growth companies that most excite him today. Resources:The changing face of growthFour cardinal questions for growth investorsMark Urquhart’s LinkedIn page1599: A Year in the Life of William ShakespearePast podcasts  Timecodes:00.00      Introduction1:20          Joining Baillie Gifford in the pre-Google era03:45        An evolving attitude to growth companies05:20        Looking for stronger compound growth06:35        Investing in Microsoft08:00        The quest for companies like Hermès09:55        Learning to be open-minded in Japan12:10        The importance of mavericks13:40        How Tesla hit its targets 14:40        Investing in times of crisis17:35        What the Covid pandemic teaches growth investors23:05        Today’s most exciting growth companies25:15        Book recommendation Follow us via:TwitterLinkedInEmail Companies mentioned include:Alphabet (Google)AppleASMLDexcomDon QuijoteHermèsMercadoLibreMicrosoftNetflixPelotonSpaceXTesla