Claim OwnershipMallen Baker: Faultlines
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'Dangerously reasonable' analysis on politics, science, and particularly the bit where they bump into each other. I aim to give an independent, fact-focused, non-ideological take on the issues that matter.
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More and more world figures, leaders, commentators, are agreeing in public that the US seems to have lost the Iran war. And that includes oil company executives, horrified that Trump seems to have accepted Iran will remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump is clearly not happy about it - he wants to end the war with the world believing he triumphed. And what seems to be panic at the opposite being the case, is seeing him lashing out anew at the allies he claims didn't help, new demands for those allies to send warships to open the Strait of Hormuz. Claims that the agreement never included Lebanon, even though there is evidence in writing that it did. It's all getting a bit messy. Let's discuss.
After all the fire and thunder, the deadline came, and it presented mostly as a feeble capitulation to the need for compromise. In spite of all the usual bluster from President Donald Trump and his administration, all the protestations of 'negotiating from strength' and 'the art of the deal', it seems that Iran is predominantly setting the terms of reference for the discussion, and determined to hold onto its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations may follow, but these are the factors that suggest Iran has won the war - so you can check to see which of them endure through the talks.
Immediately after celebrating the rescue of a US airman from Iran, Trump launched into a tirade that was extraordinary even for him - where he threatened actions that would count as war crimes against Iran, suggesting they had to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday to avert it. Just another flip-flop then, following his earlier message that he didn't care if the Strait was open or not? Well, yes. But the US normalising of intended war crimes, and the rise of somewhat disturbing 'holy war' rhetoric, is starting to make the operation seem even more unhinged than it did already. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week for Friday April 3rd 2026. After Trump's incoherent address to the nation the backlash against his war on Iran is widening, and given voice by a particularly sharp attack by French President Macron. The Pentagon is looking to exploit its existing treaty with Denmark to open three new military bases on Greenland - but that treaty was struck at a time before the US became a rogue superpower. And there has been a sudden rush of purges. President Trump fired Pam Bondi, possibly because she couldn't deliver convictions against Trump's enemies. And Pete Hegseth fires the most senior general - in the middle of a war - and replaced him with a loyalist.
The administration of President Donald Trump was quick to cancel USAID. But quietly since then, it has been reinstating some programmes - with a catch. Increasingly, his 'art of the deal' team are demanding that essential aid for HIV sufferers is tied to preferential access to minerals, and a ten year access to health information for all citizens. The 'deals' are egregiously one-sided, assuming that the other side will have no option. But increasingly now African nations are saying no. President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia is the most recent, following in the wake of Zimbabwe's similar refusal. Let's discuss.
Another day, another verbal twist from the President of War. Yes, now Trump is SO furious at all those Europeans who apparently care about international law and war crimes, that he is threatening to pull the United States out of NATO. It's something we've heard before, and generally it's about trying to terrify the Europeans into dancing to President Trump's tune. But it's getting to the point where many will be seeing such an exit as not just inevitable - but actually a desirable outcome.
President Donald Trump, who just yesterday was threatening to commit war crimes against Iran if it didn't open the Strait of Hormuz, is now on whiplash mode again, and is now talking up the prospect of leaving Iran after a bit more bombing, whether the Strait is open or not. Those countries who need that oil, he said, can sort out the mess (that he is single-handedly responsible for) for themselves. Needless to say, many are not happy at this proposition. But out of the two scenarios, there is cause to think this will endure as the likeliest one to actually be executed. Let's discuss.
The multi-faceted stream of consciousness from President Donald Trump about what he wants from the Iran war, when and how he might end said war, and more besides continues. Now he is saying straight out that he would like to take Iran's oil - something that would only be possible if the US actually occupied Kharg island, something which most analysts say could only happen at very high cost. So maybe he'll just bomb the island's facilities instead, along with all the rest of Iran's energy and water infrastructure. Or maybe America will declare victory, leave, and then work out how to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Oh, and in the mean time, they're going to take those weapons for Ukraine that Europe BOUGHT from the US, and send them to the Middle East instead. No refunds, obviously. What could possibly go wrong?
In principle, Palantir is just a company that helps governments to work smarter. In practice, it has embraced the absence of guardrails of the US administration of President Donald Trump, its technology can be used for expanding surveillance, and for making life and death decisions that are extremely in the public eye right now. Its most high profile project has been its support of ICE's mass deportation efforts, that have been so controversial they turned Trump's most popular issue into a liability. Now, it seems there is increasing pushback, and taking support from Palantir is becoming toxic in a number of areas. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week for Friday, March 27th 2026. Trump declares that Iran negotiations, which seem mostly to be conducted between the voices in his head, are going very well - meanwhile Iran is solidifying its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Meta and YouTube were found legally liable by a California jury for deliberately addicting users and causing harm to young people. A finding that could open the floodgates to many more. And Robert F Kennedy Junior's anti-vax agenda is falling apart as the Trump administration notices it might not be the vote-winner it had hoped it would be.
Even though President Trump declared to the world that peace negotiations with Iran were advanced, and seeing agreement on most points of substance - today the US presented Iran with its starting-position 15 point plan. Iran basically shrugged it off, presented its own demands, and repeated that no negotiations have taken place, and Iran is not interested in a ceasefire. The absurd Trump claims would be hilarious if the conflict weren't causing such major consequences. But is it all a delaying game? Let's discuss.
The election in Hungary is getting closer - and we've been seeing all the things we knew were coming - Trump's endorsement of Viktor Orban, related to CPAC Hungary conference. Other far-right figures from across Europe turning up to give their support. Reams of Russian disinformation on social media. And ... wait, a false flag assassination attempt? Well, evidence has emerged that the idea was floated to the Kremlin at least - whether it was agreed or not. It gives some indication just how much weight Viktor Orban's autocratic allies are putting on him surviving his closest election yet. Let's discuss.
President Donald Trump has form in claiming that he is in active negotiations with other leaders, or with countries, when the other parties deny any such thing is happening, and it turns out that they were right. So it's somewhat surreal to find him making exactly that sort of claim about the Iranian leadership, when there is precisely nothing you would expect could be achieved by doing so. Except that any excuse to delay an unviable deadline gives him more time to come up with more distractions. And any excuse will give the stock market a boost and oil markets a price drop - and that's enough for today's headlines. But it's hard to see how any of it turns into the off-ramp he's now obviously seeking. Let's discuss.
In the course of 24 hours, President Donald Trump went from saying that he was looking at 'winding down' the Iran war, to issuing threats to escalate the crisis should Iran refuse to completely open up the Strait of Hormuz. Such massive whiplash on positions suggest that he is getting increasingly agitated about his options, and is looking around - and testing out publicly - the course of action that will enable him to get out of this situation while credibly claiming victory. But, on that score, nothing much is going his way. Which could be entertaining to watch, except that the consequences for the rest of the world seem likely to get more and more difficult as he follows the logic of his position to its end conclusion. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up for March 20th 2026: Iran's strike on Qatar has triggered what energy analysts are calling an "Armageddon scenario" for global gas markets — and Trump's denial that the US knew about the Israeli attack that provoked it lacks credibility. President Trump invoked Pearl Harbor during the latest Oval Office struggle session, this time with Japan's prime minister Takaichi. Then praised Japan for support that seems somewhat theoretical. And eleven weeks after US forces arrested Venezuela's president, we catch up with what's been happening there since.
According to one of his best allies in the Senate, President Donald Trump is more furiously angry about having none of America's allies agree to join it dealing with the consequences of his illegal war on Iran, than he's ever been seen. How did we reach this moment? From the time when the consensus seemed to be to flatter and appease Trump, to the point where former allies of the United States are content to defy his wishes - and have clearly reached the conclusion that the consequences of so doing are little different to those of doing what Trump wants. And hence, suddenly 'America First' has truly become 'America Alone'. Let's discuss.
In the last few days, the administration of President Donald Trump has been going hard after the media - any journals or networks that have reported the slightest bad news about Trump's Iran war have been getting schooled on being more patriotic. That could just be so much business as usual - except that the FCC Chair Brendan Carr has pitched in to suggest that 'fake news' about the war would be remembered at licence renewal time, and defence secretary Pete Hegseth has been publicly pitching for the takeover of CNN to see a more compliant political stance. Is American freedom of the press in serious trouble? Let's discuss.
President Trump told NATO allies, as well as countries like Japan, South Korea and even main geopolitical rival China, that they must send warships to help open the Strait of Hormuz - or else. This would be bad for NATO. He would delay his planned visit to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping. And so far, having spent the last year being insulted, threatened, tariffed and bullied - all of those countries are saying 'no thanks'. Is this the pivotal moment where the US, having realised it needs alliances, will cut them off one and for all? Let's discuss.
It's not a secret that Elon Musk's xAI platform, Grok, is not entirely like other AI models. Specifically, he has gone to great lengths to ensure it absorbs his ethos and "anti-woke" mindset, even as he has been promising it would overtake all the other models any day soon. However, it seems not all has been well in xAI - and Musk has been clearing out the old guard, firing people all over, and talking publicly about reapproaching people who were rejected for job interviews who may have been what they needed after all. Could it be that training an AI on ideology is NOT the most effective way? Maybe - but it seems a long way distant that such a thought would occur to Musk. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week for Friday March 13th 2026. Pentagon insiders reveal that Trump's war on Iran has burned through years of critical munitions in two weeks of his illegal war on Iran. And this could seriously weaken the US in dangerous times. As the Pentagon tries to isolate and damage AI company Anthropic for ethical restrictions on what its system will do, Microsoft has stepped out, risking billions in government contracts, to stand alongside it. And Trump's threats and insults against Canada continue to backfire as Mark Carney's government comes close to an overall parliamentary majority.
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