Claim OwnershipMallen Baker: Faultlines
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'Dangerously reasonable' analysis on politics, science, and particularly the bit where they bump into each other. I aim to give an independent, fact-focused, non-ideological take on the issues that matter.
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The UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer has gone to great lengths to stay on the right side of President Trump since he was re-elected. All the usual flattery, plus an unprecedented second state visit, with all the pomp and pageantry. But it was always obvious that sooner or later, Donald Trump would cross a line too far, and push the 'special relationship' into crisis. We learned this week that the first fissure has appeared, thanks to America's blatantly illegal attacks on boats in the waters near to Venezuela - not to mention it's possibly attacking the country now its aircraft carrier has arrived in the area. This has prompted the UK to take the first step to distance itself from its ally - is it the beginning of the end? Let's discuss.
On one level, the BBC made some pretty evident mistakes on impartiality - and most damagingly on a documentary on Trump, the echoes of which quickly reverberated across the Atlantic. And as a result, Tim Davie, the Director General had to resign. But there's a lot more to the story than that - and the truth is that the institution has been under attack for the last few years as political polarisation has made its mission increasingly impossible. Let's discuss.
President Trump just unleashed a barrage on social media where he railed against the Supreme Court, against anyone and everyone who is against tariffs - and then he, apparently by-the-by, said that everyone would be getting a $2000 payment. It's not the first time such things have been suggested as a result of the income from tariffs - but it was a very specific promise at this very specific moment. And what it shows is that Trump is beginning to panic that the Supreme Court is going to rule against him, and he is shaken that the recent elections showed the American public irritated he is putting up prices when they can't afford to make ends meet. So is this a real promise? And what's the strategy behind it? Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week, Russia considers giving Maduro its latest hypersonic missiles to use to defend himself against Trump's America, even as China is protesting about his threats to its strategic partner Nigeria. The administration has begun a charm offensive to persuade its supposed allies that it really CAN be trusted when it comes to intelligence sharing. And Elon Musk is granted a theoretical $1 trillion payday - the big 'if' attached to it doesn't cancel the enormity of what that figure for one person really represents. Also, I answer a viewer comment and announce a Q&A. Add your questions below.
Political fortunes can turn on a dime. One second, a major figure can seem immovable, all powerful - then suddenly something shifts and they're left trying to hold it all together as it slips from their grasp. This week has seen a series of failures for Trump that has dented his projected image of power, and reminded Congressional Republicans that politics-as-usual probably still applies, and in that world Trump will never be on the ballot ever again. It's early days, but already we're seeing the signs that this could be the week a line was crossed. Let's discuss.
The lower courts have both ruled that the bulk of Trump's tariffs are plainly unconstitutional. Now it has come to the Supreme Court, and it's arguably the moment the Conservatives on the court have been dreading. The case seems legally very clear that Trump has no case. The hearing that took place today sounded very much like a majority of them were sceptical of the arguments put before them. But Trump REALLY wants this power the way he can have it under this measure. While he could rebuild a higher tariff base with other measures, he couldn't so arbitrarily use the power to bully the world on a day-to-day basis. So how will they jump? Let's discuss.
The Trump MAGA base - with its mix of personality cultists, conspiracy theorists and uneasy traditional Republicans - is in uproar right now as Tucker Carlson's recent interview with Nick Fuentes was seen by many to breach the line. The fight over what can, or cannot, be normalised is an early sign of the fight for the future soul of MAGA for the post-Trump era. Meanwhile, the other part of MAGA - that which is being planned and executed by the tech bros and other billionaires - is organising quietly, but not wholly unnoticed. New details of how they think, how they organise, and what they want to happen next, have just been revealed in the Washington Post today. Let's discuss.Article referenced in this video:https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/11/04/chris-buskirk-maga-vance-post-trump/ (paywall)
Two stories came out today. One - it's becoming clear just how aggressively the Trump administration threatened delegates to the International Maritime Organisation to push them not to vote for the net zero carbon tax on international shipping. Two - we have Trump threatening Nigeria with an armed incursion by American forces in the face of what Trump rather absurdly suggests is an 'existential' genocide for Christians in Nigeria. Very different issues - but with one inescapably common element. And it's notice that even now much of the trade stuff is dying down, Trump's modus operandi with the world is fixed in one mode only. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week, Trump orders a resumption to nuclear testing - a move that would have major global consequences, and apparently he did so on a complete misunderstanding of reality. The Netherlands election shows that far-right populism can be reversed where it is taking hold in Europe. A MAGA-friendly major German influencer is the first to take up Trump's invitation to seek asylum in the United States. And we pick up on stories on China, and Bill Gates covered earlier in the week. And I answer questions on Trump's ICE private militia and whether Russia is about to imminently collapse. Let's jump in.
President Trump's much-anticipated summit with China's Xi Jinping has confirmed what was already obvious to all but the most MAGA-faithful - Trump lost the trade war he picked with China. The threat of crippling restrictions on strategically essential rare earth minerals will be held over America's head to be reviewed every year. Donald Trump thought he held all the cards, but it turns out he badly miscalculated. As a result, we now live in a world where interdependence has been weaponised by the powerful. Let's discuss.
Headlines are on all the major news sites - Bill Gates just did a major u-turn on climate change. He now says it's NOT the end of the world. He says the United Nations needs to pivot. And he says all this just a week before the next COP climate conference is due to start in Brazil. What's going on? Well, the headlines - most of them - are not telling the accurate story. And few of them are tracing the causal factors back to the Trump administration - and how its dismantling of USAID has completely rocked the life mission that Gates has been following for the last two decades. Let's discuss.
We know that Trump would LOVE to run for a third term - not least because he keeps telling us so. And now some of his people, such as Steve Bannon, are saying that it's all possible, although they won't yet say how. It could well just be trolling, but let's say for a moment that they're right. It's possible. There's a pretty good rationale for why it would potentially wreck their movement, and destroy their momentum if they were to try to go for it. While staying within the bounds of what we know about Trump's support base, let's play the scenario.
President Trump has arrived in Malaysia for his tour of Southeast Asia. Pausing in Malaysia only to do some embarrassing dancing and signing supposed peace deals, he will be heading to Japan to give new Prime Minister Takaichi her first real test, and then to South Korea where the highlight will be an in-person summit meeting with Xi Jinping. Scott Bessent said that positive progress has been made with the Chinese in advance of the summit, but given Trump's preference for little preparation and maximum playing it by ear, is he really ready for the hardball play he can expect from China on Thursday? Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week - Trump declares sanctions against the two biggest Russian oil companies - will it finally push China and India away from Putin? The president also attacks Canada for - um - quoting Ronald Reagan entirely accurately when it comes to tariffs, and declares that the trade negotiations are OVER. But it seems likely the outrage over the ad is just a cover. And Trump shocks even conservative outlets such as Fox News with his most nakedly autocratic actions so far. Let's discuss.
Former Fox News host Pete Hegseth, in service of President Trump, is on a mission to de-wokify the US armed forces. Well, okay. But what else? The top generals and other senior leaders expect their leader to focus on strategy and big-picture stuff. So imagine how underwhelmed they must have been when he gathered them all together for a big talking to - only to tell them to lose weight and get a haircut. Along with that, and some of the disastrous actions since, some of those top generals are starting to let their real feelings leach out into the public domain. Let's discuss.
President Trump's America is making a thing out of lecturing its allies about the importance of free speech. And yet while doing this, they spread toxic disinformation over and over again, and you quickly realise that America believes - uniquely of any country currently in the world - that 'free speech' means the 'right to lie'. But this definition is a relatively recent one. So let's discuss how it changed, and why this perversion of one of the most important democratic principles should be resisted.
The planned second summit between President Trump and Vladimir Putin is suddenly off - following the realisation that Russia has no intention of negotiating, it is only interested in surrender. This is a massive humiliation to Trump having come off all the hubris around the Middle East peace deal, to find that he isn't being given the time of day by the one dictator he truly admires. But at the same time as all that's happening, we are learning that European security forces are no longer sharing all the things with Trump's America that they used to. Let's discuss.
We knew that Trump had been somewhat swayed by Russia's Vladimir Putin in their phone call last Thursday, but it has just been revealed today just how much Trump threw Putin talking points verbatim at Ukraine's President Zelensky when they met at the Oval Office on Friday. All the progress of recent weeks, where Trump had become more positive towards Ukraine, seem to have been reversed. Instead, Trump was going further than ever in demanding Zelensky accept Russia's terms for ending the war - in other words, surrender. And this is the backdrop for the proposed Trump / Putin summit to take place in Budapest. Let's discuss.
President Trump is used to getting his way - with just about anyone (except possibly Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping). In particular, he's used to being able to threat tariffs or other measures and have most of the countries of the world falling in line, doing whatever he demands in order to avoid his wrath. But this week, the world is about to agree a measure that introduces a global tax - and even worse than that, a global tax relating to climate action. Trump's America has bellowed 'no', and is threatening all sorts of reprisals if countries vote for this measure. And right now, it seems that mostly they are ignoring him and intending to go ahead anyway. This is ... interesting. Let's discuss.
While Trump was being treated as an all-conquering hero in the Middle East, he had hanging over him the one fight he just realised he can't win - his renewed trade blow-up with Xi Jinping's China. Having threatened yet another bombastic massive tariff barrage in response to China's control of rare earth minerals, he quickly started to backpedal. Almost as though he remembered what happened the last time they went that route. The thing is that China's moves now are affecting the whole world - and China and the US are both pushing other countries to pick a side. This is a tricky situation - let's discuss.
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