Claim OwnershipMallen Baker: Faultlines
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'Dangerously reasonable' analysis on politics, science, and particularly the bit where they bump into each other. I aim to give an independent, fact-focused, non-ideological take on the issues that matter.
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Over the weekend, we heard that Trump had instructed options to be drawn up for taking Greenland through military action. Also, the European NATO members discussed what could be done to fend this off. And the proposal was made that they should send their own military forces to Greenland as soon as possible. But the reason they said they were doing this is certainly not the actual reason. Let's discuss.
To mark the start of 2026, and also the milestone of 150k subscribers for this channel, a Q&A, where we cover Trump, Venezuela, Europe, Greenland, economic collapse, and a great deal more besides. Also, I recount the moment where I nearly died in Washington DC. Seriously.
Trump enjoyed his most dramatic "success" at the start of the year, with his military's flawless operation to grab Nicolas Maduro, and to extort Venezuela into giving the US exclusive access to its oil resources. He promised big as a result - American oil companies would now invest $100 billion into Venezuela's crumbling oil infrastructure to bring it back up to peak productivity. But in a major humiliation to arguably his biggest achievement so far, the oil companies are turning him down. It turns out that Trump's promises are not something they feel they can take to the bank. Even an industry used to managing risk finds President Trump plain too risky. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week for Friday January 9th, 2025. The US takes another step towards normalising political violence with the shooting of a woman by ICE in Minneapolis. President Trump declares that it might well be that he has to choose between taking Greenland and keeping NATO intact. Elon Musk’s Twitter is on the verge of being banned from the United Kingdom, and maybe the European Union. And the White House launches a new website with its own version of recent history - that is as bad as you might expect.
Since the operation against Nicolas Maduro, the Trump Administration has been in bullish mood about its ability to use military power to get anything it wants around the world. And one of the most commonly mentioned targets in the last few days has been Greenland. They assume that the US has such overwhelming force, nobody would try to stop an armed invasion. But Denmark is a member of NATO, and the pledge is that an attack on one is an attack on all. So will European NATO members actually fight for Greenland should it come to it? Let's discuss.
Two things we've learned in the last couple of days. One - the Trump administration officially could not care less about international law, at least - if it should ever prove to be a constraint on them doing exactly what they want to do. And two - for all that MAGA social media posts have been bigging up the initial celebration of Venezuelans at Maduro's downfall, Trump actually is just fine with an authoritarian regime staying in place, just with someone different at the head of it. So all those people who initially celebrated are now feeling crushing disappointment, and the ones actually living in Caracas are hiding from the armed militia crackdown. Let's discuss.
So the plan to oust Nicolas Madura resulted in an attack, during which the dictator and his wife were seized and transported to the United States. This is an undoubted breach of international law, but Trump and MAGA don't care about that. It also broke the rules of the United States, but nobody seems inclined to enforce those. Nevertheless, this isn't just another mad President Trump moment - this has pushed Trump, the bully who used tariffs to put extreme pressure on other countries - across the line into the use of military force to do likewise. This makes it highly likely more will follow. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week for January 2nd 2026, President Trump threatens military action against Iran, as the regime there tries to cope with mass protests. Global warming is already hitting Southern Europe so hard that growers there are having to give up traditional crops such as citrus fruit. Elon Musk makes a shocking observation about the state of government that someone really ought to do something about. And the people that took Russian money to fund MAGA Influencers have been allowed back into the US - because foreign interference is just fine so long as it’s Vladimir Putin.
1What are the three basic values and processes of democratic systems that we are most in danger of losing - both in Trump's United States and much of Europe, and elsewhere in the world? And - having identified what makes a healthy democracy work, how can we halt the process of democratic decline that we see all around us? In other words, how can we make 2026 the beginning of the fightback for democracy against autocracy? Well, let's discuss.
The New Year is upon us - a time for new beginnings! But for President Trump, the early days of 2026 could see the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of his tariffs - and to all appearances the merits of the case are overwhelmingly against him. Should the justices rule accordingly, the tariff Plan B will be invoked - and the administration will pretend it's all okay, but it will have defanged Trump by removing his most powerful and arbitrary weapon. Let's discuss.
In the first half of 2025, the massive investment in Artificial Intelligence data centres was by far the largest part of the economic growth that the US economy registered. This reflects a breathtaking scale of activity. But every action has an equal and opposite reaction - and communities across the United States, across the political divide, are starting to vigorously protest all these new energy-hungry data centres. And that presents a particular problem for Trump, allied as he is to the tech billionaires. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week for Friday December 26th 2025. Trump's America launches a bombing strike against ISIS targets in Nigeria - but with the support of the government there, contrary to its earlier approach. Five Europeans who are deemed to be beastly to American free speech are barred from being in the United States - and why this is a trend we'll be seeing more of. And Trump world is dismayed that the Administration's extraordinary incompetence in its messaging over the Epstein Files has made it far worse, and laster longing, than it ever needed to be.
President Trump has launched a new battleship concept for the US Navy, bigger, more advanced, faster - what else could it be called other than 'Trump Class'? But is this project just a misconceived fantasy - a vanity project that could divert major spending from the things the US military actually needs to do to keep pace with its rivals? Or is it the way of the future? And if the latter - why a battleship - given that these were abandoned after the second world war, and for good reason? Well, let's discuss.
President Trump had already told us that he wanted to take over Greenland. Then we got the sense that it was a live project when it was revealed that spies had been sent to the island on a 'covert influence' operation. Now, Trump has announced a "special envoy" for Greenland, placing it at the top of a priority list, and alarming Greenland and Denmark over what this means might be coming next. Meanwhile, Europe pretends that nothing much has changed with the US, and we're all still the best of allies. At what point does that change? Let's discuss.
In its recent National Security Strategy, the Trump Administration lay claim to Central and South America as being 'its neighbourhood', where it would exert more control and expect to be able to shape events to its satisfaction. And it specifically said it would seek to push out third party countries, and it was clear that this meant China. But China just released its own strategy, and it's making it clear that it has no intention of going anywhere. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week for Friday December 19th, 2025. President Trump addresses the nation, and it's fascinating for what it says about the pressure the administration is under. President Putin addresses the nation, and apart from the stark contrast, it's worth noting what it says about the end game for Ukraine. And the Epstein Files release day is today - and the administration will fail the requirement to release all of them, because they just haven't had time to censor them all. Let's jump in.
President Trump's trusted and loyal chief of staff, Susie Wiles, always known as the quiet person who got everything done, has hit the news big time with a series of interviews she did with Vanity Fair, where she gave strikingly honest assessments of her colleagues, some of Trump's recent actions and his motivations. It made a big impact - some of it wasn't news, or at least shouldn't have been. But some of it was important background to the administration's political strategy and the White House infighting and debate. Let's discuss.
By all accounts, the MAGA faithful are starting to despair at the disconnect between what candidate Donald Trump promised during his election campaign, and what President Trump is actually delivering. Whether it comes to affordability, the Epstein Files, Artificial Intelligence and more - Trump is seen as aligning with billionaires and tech oligarchs, not the ordinary people. And, according to a series of articles in the Washington Post today, he's simply not listening to the feedback, which could mean nothing is going to improve much from this point forward. Let's discuss.
In an interview a few days ago, Elon Musk - normally the purveyor of hubris and inflated promises - said that DOGE had been "a little bit" successful. This was clearly the closest to reality he could bring himself to admit in public, but the fact he went on to say that he wouldn't do it if he had his time again really tells the story. So that moment of self-reflection is worth noting. But then you have to note how he remains of the view that his vision for the world must be indulged by governments worldwide, and he will seek to attack or undermine those who disagree. Arguably, that's entirely the improvement we might have hoped for from Elon Musk 'spending more time on his businesses'. Let's discuss.
In this news round-up of the week for Friday December 12th 2025: President Trump's Navy seizes an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude which highlights what may be the real reason why he won't stop until Maduro is gone; A leaked briefing paints in vivid colours the reality that if the US ends up in a shooting war with China, America itself expects to lose, in spite of all its expensive weapons; And while some are excited that the Epstein files are supposed to be released next week, there are two good reasons to presume it's going to be yet another dud.
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