ITR Economics

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the recent surge in oil prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East and what it means for businesses and consumers. With oil briefly pushing above $100 per barrel, many leaders are asking whether this spike signals sustained inflation and economic pressure. Taylor shares ITR Economics’ updated oil price forecast and explains why history suggests these price spikes may not last as long as headlines imply. He also explores how higher energy prices could affect consumer spending, retail sales, and business margins in the months ahead. Join ITR Economics Chief Economist Brian Beaulieu and Senior Forecaster Connor Lokar in our Executive Webinar on March 20 → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity

Want to Learn about having "you're own" ITR Economist on your team?→ https://promotions.itreconomics.com/en-us/insights-from-itr-economics Don't miss our Executive Webinar on March 20th→ https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest inflation data and what it means for the Federal Reserve’s next move. With CPI and Core CPI still running above the Fed’s target, inflation remains stubbornly persistent, raising new questions for businesses and consumers alike. Lauren also examines how rising geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in global oil supply could influence energy prices and consumer budgets. While the impact may be temporary, the combination of higher energy costs and growing electricity demand from AI and data centers could complicate the Fed’s path toward rate cuts. What does this mean for inflation trends, business planning, and the likelihood of interest rate relief this year? Watch the full episode to understand the forces shaping the economic outlook and what to watch next. 00:02 – Inflation remains sticky: CPI and Core CPI update 00:42 – Middle East tensions and risks to global oil supply 02:12 – How higher energy prices impact consumers 03:25 – Why energy costs matter less than they used to 04:05 – AI, data centers, and rising electricity demand 04:45 – What sticky inflation means for Fed rate cuts 05:30 – Other economic data: GDP, housing, and labor market 💬 Do you think the Fed will still be able to cut rates this year if inflation remains sticky?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain shares an update on the commercial construction outlook and why the industry may have already passed its cyclical low. While the data still shows contraction, key leading indicators suggest momentum is building for growth later this year. What signals should contractors and construction suppliers be watching right now? Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker unpacks February’s surprising jobs report and explains why one weak headline number doesn’t necessarily signal trouble for the economy. With job losses making headlines and uncertainty lingering, many leaders are asking the same question: Is the labor market starting to crack? Lauren breaks down what’s really behind the data, from temporary healthcare job losses to ongoing labor shortages in key industries like manufacturing and construction. She also explores why wages are still rising and what that means for inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve’s next move. For business leaders navigating slower growth and persistent inflation, the bigger risk may be something ITR calls “profitless prosperity.” What does that mean for your strategy in 2026? Are you making decisions based on headlines, or on what the data is actually telling us?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines the rapid growth in electricity infrastructure and what it means for your business strategy through 2030. With data center construction in 2025 and record highs in electric power transmission and distribution production, demand for energy is reshaping industrial markets. Rising electricity costs are adding pressure to margins and contributing to inflation in the second half of the decade. How should you position your business to capitalize on electrification growth while protecting profitability? Tune in for the data, the risks, and the long term opportunity.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Locar breaks down January’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index report and what it means for interest rates as we head into March. With inflation data coming in warm and money supply growth accelerating at the fastest pace in nearly four years, the likelihood of a near-term rate cut appears to be fading. At the same time, bond yields are dipping below 4 percent, raising new questions about growth expectations and market sentiment. Add in the latest 10 percent tariff action under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, and businesses are once again facing pricing uncertainty. If you are trying to plan capital spending, manage borrowing costs, or protect margins in an environment of persistent inflation pressure, this episode will help you frame what matters most right now. Are markets signaling confidence, or concern?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest labor market data and what it means for your workforce strategy in 2026. While employment growth is slowing, wage inflation remains elevated above historical norms, creating ongoing margin pressure for businesses. We examine industry specific wage trends, regional disparities, and why a role by role and state by state approach is critical in today’s environment. As the economy positions for growth in 2026 and 2027, is now the time to act on hiring and compensation strategy?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major Supreme Court decision striking down the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, and what that means for inflation, business costs, and economic uncertainty ahead. With fourth quarter GDP coming in at 1.4% and core PCE inflation rising to 3%, headlines are painting a mixed picture. Is growth really faltering? Are inflation pressures reaccelerating? And how should business leaders interpret the latest data amid shifting trade policy? Lauren unpacks what is signal versus noise, why government shutdown effects matter, and why inflation may not fade as quickly as some hope. Most importantly, she explains why the tariff ruling does not automatically mean lower prices for businesses and consumers. If you are navigating margin pressure, pricing strategy decisions, or concerns about profitless prosperity, this episode offers critical context. What does this ruling really mean for your cost structure in 2026?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the downgrade to the 2026 US Single-Unit Housing Starts forecast. Despite lower mortgage rates and moderating home prices, affordability challenges remain a major headwind for builders, buyers, and industry suppliers. Why are most states still facing income deficits when it comes to buying a home? When will meaningful recovery begin? And which regions are positioned to outperform even in a down cycle? Tune in for the data-driven outlook and strategic insights to help you plan for 2026 and beyond. How is your region preparing for continued housing market pressure?

Stronger Jobs Report, Fed Pause Likely, and Global Concerns Rise | Fed Watch by ITR Economics

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the key economic benchmarks shaping business conditions in 2026. Industrial production, employment, capital investment, and consumer spending are all showing improvement, but growth comes with new challenges. As demand returns and competition for labor intensifies, businesses must stay disciplined on margins to win in this cycle. Are you prepared for what the second half of 2026 may bring?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar steps in to unpack how markets are responding to the Fed Chair announcement and what the latest data means for rates, inflation, and demand. With bond yields holding steady and PMI surging to a multi-year high, a key business pain point remains front and center: meaningful rate relief still looks elusive. Connor explains why stable yields do not signal coming cuts, how rising new orders point to renewed demand pressure, and why the housing market faces a longer recovery timeline than many expect. What do these signals mean for your planning as we move deeper into 2026?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the European economic outlook for 2026, highlighting where growth is returning and where businesses still face pressure. Western Europe is moving through recovery, Eastern Europe is poised to outperform, and business confidence is finally improving across most markets. But inflation dynamics and margin management remain key challenges leaders cannot ignore. What does this mean for companies planning international growth in the year ahead?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a busy week for the Federal Reserve, from the FOMC’s decision to hold interest rates to the surprise announcement of Kevin Warsh as President Trump’s pick for Fed Chair. With markets already uneasy about inflation and the timing of the next rate move, leadership changes at the Fed raise important questions for businesses planning around borrowing costs, capital investment, and economic uncertainty. Get insight into what Warsh’s policy stance could signal for rate cuts, Fed credibility, and the path forward. What should decision-makers be watching most closely right now?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest automotive industry outlook, including why North American light vehicle production is expected to return to growth in 2026 after a difficult 2025. While production and retail sales show improvement, cost pressures and rising auto loan delinquencies present real challenges for industry leaders. How should automotive firms prepare for a slower, more disciplined growth cycle ahead?

This week on Fed Watch, Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines the issue of central bank independence and what it means for today’s financial markets. She breaks down why markets have largely dismissed recent concerns about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and explores the risks that could emerge if interest rate cuts move ahead without support from underlying economic conditions. Lauren also unpacks the inflationary implications and key market signals business leaders should be monitoring. Are you factoring these policy dynamics into your forward-looking strategy?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the global economic outlook for 2026 at a time when geopolitical uncertainty and trade policy changes are creating anxiety for business leaders. Despite the noise, key indicators point to continued global growth, though not without important shifts that could impact your strategy. Which regions are positioned to outperform, and how should businesses think about trade and supply chain risk this year? Watch to understand what matters most for planning in 2026 and beyond. What does this global growth environment mean for your business decisions? Click here for a Free Preview of Trends Report → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the delayed December jobs report and explains why softer hiring may not signal economic weakness, highlighting employment as a lagging indicator and the growing divide between sector winners and losers in the labor market. She also examines what the latest data means for the Federal Reserve’s rate path, why borrowing costs continue to diverge from Fed policy, and how renewed discussions around Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could influence mortgage rates, raising important questions for businesses and borrowers navigating ongoing uncertainty.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the 2026 economic outlook after a challenging 2025. Growth is returning across GDP, industrial production, and business investment, but higher labor, electricity, and tariff-related costs threaten margins. Which sectors are positioned to improve, and what should leaders focus on now to stay profitable and prepare for the 2030s? Check out a Trends Report Free Preview here → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down why inflation is becoming the Fed’s dominant concern as we enter 2026. She unpacks the latest Fed meeting minutes, growing dissent within the FOMC, and what a more hawkish voting lineup could mean for interest rate policy. Lauren also explores why the U.S. consumer remains resilient, how upcoming tax refunds could provide short-term support, and why now is the time for businesses to revisit pricing strategies as CPI pressures build. What risks should business leaders be watching most closely this year?