Economy Watch

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there is a general relief rally underway as the US indicates it is pulling back from its aggressive tactics with Iran. Trump seems to be 'declaring victory', but the Iranians seem to have given up nothing he sought. The Iranians are letting non-combatant ships pass through the Straits of Hormuz on their terms and schedule. They are also continuing active attacks on their foes. Even if "it is over", the echo of sharply higher inflation will linger. Yes, oil prices have pulled back but they remain more than +50% higher than at the start of Trump's crazy adventure. Benchmark interest rates are higher too. Wall Street is down a net -5% even after today's rally. 1500 civilians were killed in Iran in these attacks, 18,500 injured. The US seems to have revealed it is relatively impotent to impose its will, even with apparent overwhelming force. Certainly when applied incompetently. Meanwhile, US mortgage applications fell sharply for a second week, due to mortgage interest rates rising to a five month high. Refinance activity was hit particularly hard, but even if that wasn't the case, there was a notable retreat for new purchases too. That is two consecutive weeks of -10% reductions and that is the sharpest two-week retreat since December 2024. US crude stocks rose again last week and their fifth consecutive weekly rise, the longest stretch since early 2024. Meanwhile petrol inventories fell for a sixth consecutive week. This allowed pressure on US pump prices to rise +34% in a month. So they have an odd combination of plenty of crude oil stocks, and sharply rising energy inflation. Grifting at its best. In an item we don't usually report on, a jury in New Mexico has found both Meta and YouTube liable in a first-of-its-kind lawsuit that aimed to hold social media platforms responsible for addiction harm to children using their services, awarding US$3 mln in damages. Yesterday we noted the sharp rise in yields at the US Treasury two year Note auction. Today there was a similar one for the five year equivalent. And it too brought a dramatically higher yield - 3.92% up from 3.56% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Demand was less for this one too, but not as dramatically as for the two year In China, we should note that after a 21 day suspension, state owned shipping line COSCO is taking bookings for China to Middle East destinations again. In Germany, their widely-watched Ifo Business Climate Index dropped in March to its weakest reading since February 2025, as the Middle East conflict dampened economic sentiment. In Australia, February CPI inflation was reported as 3.7%, a marginal dip from 3.8% in January. Most sub-categories dipped, except the housing category which rose at the rate of 7.2% pa. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.33%, down -8 bps from yesterday at this time.  The price of gold will start today up +US$132 from yesterday at US$4556/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at US$72.50/oz. American oil prices are down -US$2.50 at just over US$90/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$3 at just on US$101/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD from yesterday, still at 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.6 AUc. We are up +20 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are +10 bps firmer at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +10 bps at just on 62. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71.453 and up +2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news escalation in the Middle East is rising as the US is increasingly desperate to extract itself. Through all this it is adding more troops as Iran widens its attacks. It looks grim. But first up today we should note that the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered slightly lower prices across the four commodities offered, all down about -3% in USD, marginally less in NZD. In the US, while everything else is in flux, there is widening concern about private credit 'cockroaches'. We first noted the issues with Blue Owl funds. But it seems many more of these opaque funds have severe valuation issues. Funds managed by some very big names have been limiting withdrawals and investors clamour to exit their exposure. A list of troublesome funds include those managed by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone. There are others of course. Limiting or stopping redemptions on funds that have dodgy valuations is a terrible signal. Staying in the US, the weekly ADP pulse data delivered little-change from the prior week, a minimal +10,000 job increase. The Richmond Fed's regional factory survey reported an improvement in their region in March, built on better order levels, an easier ability to pass on price increases, and a lower cost pressure. Despite all that, things are still net-negative. However their services survey is no longer negative (although it isn't positive either). In Canada, small business sentiment took a hit in March, but it is still net-positive There were many early March PMIs out overnight and the one for the US was weaker with weakened output growth and sharply higher prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. This survey is now at an eleven month low. In Europe, this same survey shows Eurozone output growth slowed as input cost inflation hits its highest level for over three years. India is reporting higher inflation and lower growth. Japan is reporting a slowdown in March too. And Australia reported a sudden contraction, their first in 18 months. In all PMIs released so far, the factory sectors are seeing less negative impact than the services sectors, where the effects are more immediate. Taiwan reported a more 'modest' (for them) increase in industrial production in February, up +18% from a year ago. They also said their retail sales jumped an outsized +7.7% in February from a year ago, ending a long run of modest improvements. We should note that the sharp restriction on sulphur exports from the Middle East is really juicing up the price of this commodity essential for phosphate fertiliser production, competing with mining demand for the remaining limited supply. Sulphur prices are now +40% higher than at the start of 2026 and +27% higher than the pandemic peak which was the prior record high. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.41%, up +7 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today up +US$38 from yesterday at US$4424/oz. Silver is actually up +50 USc at US$69.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$92.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$104/bbl. And it will be no surprise to learn that jet fuel prices are leaping, globally. The Kiwi dollar is softer against the USD from yesterday, down -30 bps at 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.5 AUc. We are down -40 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are -30 bps lower at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -30 bps at just on 61.9. The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,569 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Trump chickening out on Iran strategy. US data soft. EU sentiment dives. Moderates start to win again in Europe.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with its all about watching financial markets and their reactions to the US war on Iran and its long-term impact on US fiscal management - and their November election prospects. It is going to be volatile, yo-yo mix of gloom and temporary relief rallies. During the pandemic crisis, we had essentially a fiscal and central bank 'put' policy to deal with that crisis, an implicit policy promise where the Government and central bank acted with programs to set a floor for employment and asset prices, typically by purchasing assets to inject liquidity during market downturns. But this time there seems little appetite to reprise that if things get really unstable. In the week ahead, locally we will get some mortgage data for February, but apart from that, data releases will be light. Today's Fonterra results will be interesting however. In Australia, Wednesday's February inflation data will be the key thing we are watching. Globally, it will be all about actions and reactions during the fourth week of attritional conflict in the Persian Gulf and how that affects oil and natural gas flows. In the US, there are a range of sentiment indicators for March out this week including PMIs, the University of Michigan consumer survey, and many regional Fed surveys. In China, there isn't much data ahead this week, just industrial profit data. In Japan and Singapore, they too will update inflation data. But we need to watch US Treasury yields which jumped at the end of last week, and to their highest level in nine months. Investors seem to be coming to realise that Trump doesn't know what he is doing, and the inflation impacts from these mistakes will likely deliver a much more hawkish US Federal Reserve, despite the Warsh and Miran inserts. We may all be in for rising benchmark interest rates. And it won't help us that credit rating agencies are looking at these impacts and starting to consider downgrades, sovereign and corporate. Risk premium rises will be on top of the benchmark rises. Meanwhile, the IEA says the market disruptions from the US/Israeli "conflict has triggered the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market". They say we should all work from home, and if we drive, drive slowly. American petrol prices are up a third in just four weeks. That signal from the world's largest economy will be sharply inflationary. By a different means, Trump is effectively imposing a giant carbon tax on everyone. And what will flow from from that? Sharply higher inflation, and sharply lower global economic activity. That is the definition of stagflation. Everyone suffers because monetary policy needs higher interest rates to restrain the inflation risk. And that undermines the global banking system because stagflation is the worst scenario for bank lending. Meanwhile, Canadian retail sales rose in February by +0.9% from January to be +1.8% higher than year-ago levels. But Canada's producer prices rose much less than expected in February. They were up +0.4% from January when a +1.1% rise was expected. For the year they are up +5.4% however. Taiwanese export orders are still growing fast but the February rise was only +24% and by the standards of the +60% January rise, this seems a let-down. Analysts has expected another very large rise and so were disappointed. But anyone else would have been over the moon with a +24% rise. In China, foreign direct investment inflows fell -5.7% in February from a year ago to ¥161 bln, -22% lower than the same period in 2025, and its lowest for this period since 2020. There were some positive sectors in high-tech, but mostly this is a weakness Beijing won't appreciate. And Chinese customs data shows why the silver price jumped earlier in the year. China bought up 700 tonnes of the metal in January and February to shore up its strategic reserves. But the buying seems to have eased or stopped, and we are seeing the price dive now. We should probably note that with the Australia-New Zealand "Closer Defence Relations" statement, there is growing expectations that the two countries will buy its replacement frigates from Japan. In South Australia, the incumbent Labor state government has won re-election handily. Advance results show it winning 33 of 48 seats, with the Liberals suffering a heavy reduction (10). With 98% of polling booths counted, so far Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party is not ahead in any of them. And we need to note that Fitch has changed their outlook for the New Zealand economy, shifting its AA+ rating from 'Stable' to 'Negative' on the basis that debt reduction is now far less likely for either the private or public sectors. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.39%, unchanged from Saturday at this time, up +11 bps for the week. The price of gold will start today down -US$83 from Saturday at US$4590/oz. That is down -$528 or -10.5% in a week. And that its its largest weekly fall in more than 40 years. Silver is down another-US$2 at US$67.50/oz, a -16% weekly retreat. American oil prices are holding at just on US$98/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$1.50, now just over US$112/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from Saturday, down -10 bps at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 83 AUc. We are down -20 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -10 bps at just on 62 but up +40 bps over the past week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,741 and down -1.3% from this time Saturday, down -3.3% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Qatar has being hit hard by Iranian missiles today, upending the global trade in natural gas. In fact, it is clear now there will be a protracted energy shock that everyone needs to adjust to. The impacts are ahead and aren't going away. Elsewhere, US initial jobless claims came in at +190,000 last week, a slightly bogger dip than seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.1 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than a year ago but still above two year-ago levels. The Philly Fed factory survey for March rose from February although that wasn't due to new orders, which retreated. Clearly these businesses are not involved in new home construction, because new home sales fell sharply nationally in February to their lowest level since early 2023. US wholesale inventories fell in January, and their inventory-to-sales ratio fell even sharper. So there is plenty of capability to rebuild inventories to 'normal' levels - but clearly most businesses aren't doing that, choosing to boost cashflow with lower inventory levels. Elsewhere there were a number of central bank policy rate decisions released overnight. China held its Prime Loan Rates unchanged at record low levels. Taiwan left its policy rate unchanged at 2.00%. Japan also held unchanged at 0.75%. Switzerland held at 0%. Sweden held at 1.75% (link for Governor Breman.) And the ECB was also unchanged at 2.15%. There were others, like the Czech Republic(3.5%), England (3.75%), Moldova (5.0%), and none of those changed either. In Australia, their jobless rate rose to 4.3% in February, up from the 4.1% forecast and levels seen in the previous two months. This is back to the November level. Full time jobs rose fell -30,500 while part-time jobs rose +79,500. Their participation rate hit a four-month high of 66.9%. (As at December 2025, the NZ jobless rate was 5.4% and will be updated for Q1-2026 on May 6.) And staying in Australia, the Cat5 tropical cyclone packing 260kmph winds is now hitting Far North Queensland, but it way up there above Cairns and Port Douglas which isn't taking the brunt of it. It may affect Weipa, the source of bauxite for our Bluff smelter, however. Global container freight rates were up only +2% last week to be down only -4% from year-ago levels. In fact these rates have been remarkable stable out of China. But inbound rates to Europe jumped +10%, and transatlantic rates into the US dived -35%. But twisted supply chain pressures will likely change this ahead. Bulk freight rates rose 7.5% in the past week to be +24% higher than year ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +6 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today down -US$293 from yesterday at US$4587/oz. Silver is down a massive -US$6.50 at US$70.50/oz. American oil prices are holding up at just on US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$107/bbl. Both were higher earlier. The Straits of Hormuz remain no-go areas for most with the situation still extremely unstable. The ships transiting are those approved by Iran, which holds all the cards at present. They are talking about charging fees to transit safely. The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from yesterday, still just on 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 82.9 AUc. We are down -80 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are basically holding at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up less than +10 bps at just under 62.1. The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,465 and down -2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news deeper turmoil in the Middle East has overshadowed the US Fed meeting. But first up, in an 11-1 vote, the US Federal Reserve decided to hold its policy rate unchanged at 3.25% at todays meeting. Only Trump's insert, Stephen Miran, voted against the consensus. The immediate response from financial markets wasn't large, probably because this is the expected result. While their dot plot signals a rate cut this year, markets do not have that priced in. In fact the futures market is looking for rises. Elsewhere in the US, mortgage applications sank last week by almost -11% as rising mortgage rates killed off demand. Almost off of this pullback was for refi demand American producer prices surged +0.7% in February from January to be +3.4% higher than year-ago levels. That is the biggest rise in more than a year. If you just isolate producer prices to 'goods' only, the jump was noticeably more, up +1.1% just in one month. That makes the January factory order data look rather weak. They were up just +0.1% from a month earlier, up +3.5% from a year ago. So almost all of this is accounted for by inflation, and the recent order level growth is far less than recent inflation. Financial markets noticed and sagged. US crude stocks rose and by more than expected last week, but this had little impact on the rising oil price. But US domestic petrol inventories dived last week in a major way. Making this notable was it was the fifth consecutive weekly drop. The Bank of Canada left its overnight target rate steady at 2.25% in its March meeting, as expected. Staying in Canada, they reported that their 41.5 mln population declined by more than -100,000 in 2025 mainly due to an exodus of foreign workers.. Meanwhile the Japanese Reuters Tankan Index rose to 18 points in March from 13 points in February and its highest (non-pandemic) level since 2019. In South Korea we should note that a 66,000 member union has voted to strike at a major Samsung electronics facility in May. If it happens, it will be yet another supply chain disruption for a key global electronics supplier. This is a company union, and only the second time in its history it has voted to strike, so there must be deep dissatisfaction involved. In Malaysia, they became the first country to confirm that their special trade pact with the US is now 'void' following the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. It will likely trigger a cascade of other countries declaring the same. In China, new official data out shows that cement production surged in February, back to 2023 levels, and perhaps a solid indication that construction activity is picking up, after a long two-year low period. In Australia, the six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, held at +0.08% in February, unchanged from January but down from more firmly positive reads seen late last year. Of course, this metric covers periods before the US-Iran war. Meanwhile, Far North Queensland is being warned to brace for Tropical Cyclone Narelle, forecast to make landfall as a category four or five system on Friday morning, with destructive wind gusts of up to 250 kph !! Generally, we should probably note that the USD's steady devaluation against the Chinese yuan seems to have ended, with the rate holding steady for the past few weeks. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.22%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time, little-changed after the Fed decision. The price of gold will start today down -US$121 from yesterday at US$4880/oz. Silver is down -US$2.50 at US$77/oz. American oil prices are up almost +US$3, at just under US$98/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$6, now just over US$108/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain no-go areas for most with the situation still extremely unstable. The ships transiting are those approved by Iran, which holds all the cards at present. The Israeli attack on Iranian gas fields has delivered a large spike in natural gas prices. The Kiwi dollar has dipped today, down -20 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.5 AUc. We are little-changed against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -20 bps at just over 62. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,293 and down -3.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial markets are relatively calm today mainly because the Persian Gulf situation has slipped into a stalemate with no new developments good or bad. But first up today, the overnight dairy auction brought little change in overall prices, but there was surprising variation between the commodities on offer. The net result was a tiny +0.1% gain in USD, +0.4% in NZD. But AMF rose +6.4% and SMP rose +5.2%. Offsetting these was WMP which dropped -4.0%. These shifts are much larger than the derivatives market signaled. In fact, the AMF price is back up to late 2024 levels, and the SMP is now at its elevated October 2022 levels - and apart from those pandemic distortions, back to the unusual 2014 levels. The WMP shift, which seems big, actually isn't when viewed from a slightly longer perspective. There was good demand, mainly from precautionary buying, and from everywhere except from China. That deserves watching. In the US, ADP weekly jobs report showed some weakness with just a +9000 gain nationally, far less than the expected gain and almost half what it has recorded over the past four weeks. They say there is a noticeable slowing in hiring. Business activity continued to decline significantly in the New York region’s service sector in March, according to firms responding to the New York Fed’s Business Leaders Survey. US pending home sales picked up marginally in February from January but are still -1.4% lower than year-ago levels. But there is wide variation, with the West (California) rising notably, the South and Mid West with minor gains, but the North East had notable declines. In Canada, their real estate markets did it tough in February, from both the economic uncertainty and prolonged bad weather. Elsewhere and as expected, the central bank of Indonesia held its policy rate at 4.75% where it has been since September 2025. In Germany there has been a huge drop in confidence as recorded by the ZEW sentiment index, all related to Trump's war in the Middle East and the downstream consequences for Europe. But perhaps somewhat surprisingly though, the negative reading was very minor. And as expected, the RBA raised its policy rate late yesterday by +25 bps to 4.1%. But what wasn't expected was how close the vote on the hike was. Five members voted for the rise, but four wanted to hold. In the end it was the growing risks of inflation that tipped the scale, made worse by the Middle East tensions and consequences. All the major banks have now announced pass-though rises to their variable rates. Globally, it is also probably worth noting that the airline industry's forecasts show that air travel is expected to double by 2050. Obviously that assumes the current geopolitical tensions subside. They see an outsized share of the expansion will come from China. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.20%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.  The price of gold will start today up +US$17 from yesterday at US$5001/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at US$79.50/oz. American oil prices are down -50 USc, at just on US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just on US$102/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain no-go areas for most with the situation still extremely unstable. The ships transiting are those approved by Iran, which holds all the cards at present. The Kiwi dollar has risen today, up +10 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.5 AUc. We are up +10 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed at just on 62.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,160 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it is becoming clearer that Iran holds the cards in the economic aspects of the Middle East conflict. Pointedly, so far no-one - not China Japan, nor NATO - has responded positively to Trump's call for naval help. Meanwhile in the US, even though crude prices retreated somewhat today, retail petrol prices there are up +0.5% today from yesterday, up +7% in a week, up +27% in a month. Away from Trump's war, American industrial production rose in February, but by far less than in January and that was enough to reduce the January year-on-year gain of +2.3% to a February equivalent of just +1.4%. This is a sharpish slowing that wasn't the expected +2.1% gain. It was their smallest month-on-month rise in six months. And the New York Fed's Empire State factory survey suggests it may have got worse in March. That survey did not grow unexpectedly. It came in with a 'steady' -0.2% dip when a +3.2 rise was expected. New order growth disappointed. Meanwhile the NAHB sentiment survey held steady at a good level as expected. But they are worried about the growing discounting required to maintain sales. In Canada, they reported a lower February CPI rate of 1.8% with their core inflation rate at 2.3%, both less than in January. Canada also reported housing starts which rose from January, maintaining a good level and about at the average level over the last five years. But they were +13.7% higher than year-ago levels, and actually their second best February level ever. The Bank of Canada meets next on Thursday (NZT) and no change to its 2.25% policy rate is anticipated. Across the Pacific, China’s new home prices across 70 cities dropped -3.2% year-on-year in February, following a -3.1% decline in the previous month. Shanghai was the outlier with higher prices. But for house resales, nothing is rising, even in Shanghai which was down -6.5% for the year. Some are down almost -10% (Wuhan). But China's February retail surprised to the upside, rising +2.8% and much better than January's +0.9%. China's industrial production came in much better than expected as well, up +6.3% and well above the +5.1% expected and the +5.2% in the prior period. Beijing is pushing through 'pay reform' for middle managers at its state owned banks - and it is turning out to be far more brutal than those managers expected. Many are seeing their pay cut steeply, especially bonuses. And there is a retroactive aspect as well applying to their 2024 bonuses. Separately, India said its exports held steady in February, although its imports fell, allowing it to report a smaller trade deficit. Later today, the Australian central bank will review its cash rate target settings with a backdrop of high and rising inflation before the Middle East war started. The RBA is the first central bank of at least nine this week to review monetary policy in these changed circumstances. Markets have priced in a two-thirds chance of a +25 bps rate rise. Most analysts have come to the view it is the likely result too. The RBA is prioritising its inflation fighting mandate, they expect. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.23%, down -5 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today down another -US$34 from yesterday at US$4984/oz. Silver is holding at US$80.50/oz. American oil prices are down -US$3.50, at just under US$95.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$1 just over US$102/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain no-go areas for most with the situation still extremely unstable. The Kiwi dollar has risen today, up +70 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.9 AUc. We are up +10 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +60 bps at just under 62.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$73,762 and up +3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Title: A week of global central bank updates ------------------------ Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of US$100/bbl-plus oil price is settling in as the Persian Gulf conflict itself settles in to an attritional conflict with no end in sight. And although he apparently sees no irony in it, US President Trump called for help from other countries to dig him out of the crisis he started by sending naval forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz "open and safe". But so far, no country has stepped forward with any commitment. Elsewhere, there will be a lot going on in the week ahead. The big economic event will be the US Fed decision on Thursday. This is supposed to be Chairman Powell's second last meeting where he is the boss and no change is anticipated. But Trump has been losing the court fights over his campaign to oust Powell, and Congress won't progress Kevin Walsh's nomination, so who knows how that will all play out. Central bank decisions will also come this week from Canada where no change is expected and none from any of Sweden, Switzerland, the ECB, Japan, China, or England. For all of them it is a wait-and-see situation. Russia review as well and may cut by -50 bps. Of course, locally the big one will be the RBA's cash rate target review tomorrow and market are now expecting a +25 bps hike. For economic data all eyes will be on the New Zealand Q4-2025 GDP outcome, and probably more importantly, the Aussie labour market report for February. And there will be key releases from the US for PPI and industrial production, the Eurozone trade balance, and the Canadian inflation rate. Additionally, China will release its industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, housing prices, and fixed-asset investment data, many of them later today. Back in the US, it will be no surprise to learn that core PCE inflation rose at a +3.1% rate in January, its most since late 2023. And the rises in December and January were at more than a +4.5% annualised rate. Given subsequent events, it seems unlikely this rate will have eased since. The rising inflation threat will be the main reason the Fed won't cut. It its second interim report, the US economy expanded an annualised +0.7% in Q4-2025, far less than the +1.4% advance estimate, and the weakest performance since a contraction in the first quarter of 2025. Downward revisions came for exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Imports decreased less than previously thought. It is turning out economic expansion is far less now than at any time during the Biden presidency. The January JOLTS report showed more openings than in the five-year-low December report, but these were still -6% lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey fell as expected in its March edition, to a three-month low, but inflation expectations didn't fall as expected. The shifts were comprehensive across all income and age groups. War uncertainty and the rising fuel costs were the [obvious] triggers. Those petrol prices are up +18% now from a year ago, up +9% in a week. The darker mood is very obvious from two years ago (before Trump 2), with sentiment down -30%. Meanwhile the Congressional Budget Office is sounding the alarm about where US federal debt is tracking. Page 3 of their February report shows the essential corruption - personal income taxes are up +10% (and you can be sure that does not relate to billionaire 'taxpayers'), corporate income taxes are down -33%. Even the 'tariff tax' collections are essentially taxes on Americans collected at the border. These are up +US$109 bln, about the same as the rise in personal income taxes. The result seems to be that US Treasury debt held by the public is currently 101% of nominal GDP and without changes will rise to 175% of GDP in 30 years. In Canada, their labour market shrank in February and by an outsized -83,900 following a -25,000 decrease in January and sharply missing forecasts for a +10,000 gain. Job losses were concentrated in full-time positions which were down -108,400, so the report is grimmer than it first seems. It has been called a 'brutal' jobs report, and will undoubtedly end the Bank of Canada's hiking cycle. India loan growth rose +14.5% in February from a year ago, maintaining its high rate of expansion (and almost three times their GDP growth). New passenger vehicle sales in India hit a record high in February, up more than +10% from the same month a year ago, but to be fair, this overall market is nothing like China - or the US for that matter. China new yuan loans rose +¥900 bln in February, just as was expected. But that gain was slightly less than the +¥1 tln in February 2025, and much less than the +¥1.5 tln in February 2024. It won't be a surprise to know that the prices of most hard commodities are rising. But some ubiquitous ones like plastics (polyethylene +32%), steel (hot-rolled coil steel +13%), aluminium (+14%), and bitumen (+35%) have all jumped sharply in 2026. This won't be good for inflation control. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +1 bp from Saturday, up +18 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today down another -US$40 from Saturday at US$5018/oz, down -US$138 from a week ago. Silver is down -50 USc at US$80.50/oz to start today, down -US$3 from a week ago. American oil prices are up +US$2, at just under US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$103/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain no-go areas for most, although there are reports of LNG ships getting through to India. But the situation still extremely unstable. One reaction that is not happening is bringing in more US oil rigs into production in the US, even with these higher prices - not yet anyway. The Kiwi dollar has slid again, down another -30 bps against the USD from Saturday, now just over 57.8 USc. That is more than a -1c drop in a week, down -1.5%. But against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.7 AUc. We are down -30 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down another -20 bps at just over 61.6, down -1.3% for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,356 and down -0.9% from this time Saturday, although up more than +5% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Under the leadership of President Donald Trump there's a danger the United States will become an autocratic nation, not unlike China, Saudi Arabia or Russia, and New Zealand should strive to avoid becoming the focus of Trump's wrath, suggests David Cay Johnston. Johnston, a Pulitzer Prize winning investigative journalist, co-founder of DCReport and journalism professor at Rochester Institute of Technology, spoke to interest.co.nz in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast. Johnston first met Trump in Atlantic City in 1988, and has probed and written about the affairs of Trump for decades. Domestically he says Trump's under pressure from his MAGA (make America great again) base with the economy not doing well, and over the Epstein files and the US attack on Iran. With the US mid-term elections looming in November, Johnston says checks and balances via the likes of Congress, the courts and the Constitution supposed to limit the President's power, are failing. "The checks and balances system isn't working, plain and simple. He thinks he's the world's dictator. He hasn't consolidated his power even in the US, but that's his goal, totally consolidate his power, to be totally unaccountable, unfortunately," Johnston says. He says Trump's presidency could effectively be over if he loses control of the House and Senate in the mid-term elections, which is "weighing on his mind." Against this backdrop Johnston says voter intimidation and suppression is underway. Asked how the Trump era may end, Johnston says he fears for US democracy. "At the moment, the United States is a dictatorship. It is not fully consolidated, but it is a dictatorship. Whether we restore our democracy is not clear at this point. We may cease to be a democracy." Johnston says opposition emerged through the No Kings demonstrations, which he'll be watching closely over the coming US summer. These protests come against the backdrop of danger the US becomes "a huge autocratic nation, not unlike Xi's China, MBS's [Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud's] Saudi Arabia, [and] Putin's Russia. "And that would be a terrible thing for the whole world." For NZ, as a small, trading nation, Johnston suggests at this stage we ought to keep our heads down. "The key objective is to not become the focus of Donald's wrath because he could say, 'well, I'm going to prevent anyone from moving to New Zealand or coming from New Zealand. I'm going to ban Air New Zealand. He could do all sorts of things to make trouble. So my fundamental advice would be just try to stay off his radar, go on living your lives." In the podcast audio Johnston talks in more detail about why he believes Trump's tariffs are illegal, the US war with Iran, attack on Venezuela and other countries Trump could target, Trump and the Epstein files, the US economy, who Trump listens to and who influences him, the mid-term and primary elections and more. Johnston previously spoke to interest.co.nz about Trump in 2016 and in 2018. *You can find all previous episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of oil jumping while equities slide as surging crude prices stoke inflation ‌fears. Oil tankers are ablaze. Iran said it will keep the Straits of Hormuz closed and there doesn't seem much Trump can or will do about that. And the Gulf crisis is severely disrupting global air travel. Meanwhile the IEA says "The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." (OPEC however seems to be ignoring the folly.) In the US, jobless claims were little-changed last week at the headline level, the small actual decrease accounted for by seasonal factors. There are now 2.15 mln people on these benefits, very similar to a year ago but a big increase from two years ago US housing starts rose in February, just as they did in the same month a year ago and to the same levels. US exports and imports eased slightly lower in January. Their overall trade deficit fell to -US$ bln in the month largely because services exports rose. From a year ago their deficit is +-US$75 bln lower (-0.2% of GDP.) Canadian exports fell and their trade surplus with the US narrowed in January while the deficit with other countries widened. They reported a January trade deficit of -C3.7 bln mostly due to fewer car exports to the US. India reported CPI inflation of 3.2% for February, up from 2.7% in January and that takes it back to levels they had in April 2025. In Australia, inflation expectations ticked up further in the March Melbourne Institute survey, up to 5.2% for the year ahead. While this is 'only' a rise from the 5.0% rate in February, it is the highest looking-ahead level this survey has reported since January 2023, and is a significant rise from the 3.6% rate in March 2025. It only adds fuel to the expectations the RBA will hike next week at its review on March 17. Aussie equities fell, benchmark AGB yields rose further, and they were rising even before this news broke. And in the upcoming Australian budget, talk is they will assume CPI inflation in the "high 4s" for the year ahead Global container freight rates rose +8% last week to be now only -10% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound China to the EU was up +19%, to the US West Coast up just +4%. Rates to China fell. Bulk cargo rates fell -14% in the past week as demand dried up. From a year ago these rates are now +36% higher, although the base was weak in 2025. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.26%, up +5 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$52 from yesterday at US$5119/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$85/oz today. American oil prices are on the move up and by the time you hear this they will likely be over US$100/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain essentially closed, the situation even worse now. The internationally coordinated release of strategic reserves has had essentially no effect. The Kiwi dollar has slid another -50 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 58.6 USc. But against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.7 AUc. We are down -60 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 550.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -40 bps at just over 62.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,437 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets seem to be ignoring current economic data releases, building up higher risk settings. First, oil prices have risen despite official fanfare that strategic oil reserves are being released. Secondly, 'risk-free' benchmark interest rates are rising despite US inflation coming in unchanged. And thirdly, the sudden twist in Aussie rate expectations has seen their currency appreciate significantly, up +2.5% from the start of the week, up almost +7% since the start of 2026. But first in the US CPI inflation in February came in at the expected 2.4% rate, unchanged from January. But of course this survey was for a period that predates the current war impacts. Their core inflation rate rose slightly in February from January, to be 2.5% in February. In this data year-on-year petrol prices fell -5.6% to give these results, and we all know they have actually risen +22% in the past month. No doubt consumers there will be wonder why, if the US is a net energy exporter. But Trump's billionaire mates won't be turning down a grift. US mortgage applications rose for a fourth consecutive week last week, up +3.2% from the prior week, driven largely by new home purchase activity, and in spite of rising interest rates. There may by FOMO operating here, fear of even higher rates locked in for the future. Chinese new vehicle sales fell sharply in February from January. But that sort of seasonal shift isn't unusual. However, February sales were actually -15.5% lower than February 2025, and actually even lower than in February 2016. After a very strong run over the past three years, the Chinese car-making industry will be looking at the developing 2026 trends nervously. Beijing doesn't need this sector to repeat what went on in their residential housing sector. In Europe, ECB boss Lagarde has been out emphasising that they will be redoubling their efforts to keep inflation under control with an active monetary policy in the face of oil price pressures, and "will take the necessary measures to control inflation". In England, we should note that their central bank's prudential regulators have given on-line fintech Revolut a full banking license. This is expected to see them attack mainline banks in their most profitable sectors, lending, although Revolut will not be encumbered with branches or any broad requirements to provide full service offerings. Revolut has been a haven for crypto transactions. And staying in Europe, we should note there is an election in three weeks in Hungary, and EU member state. Current polling shows Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is heading for defeat. The pressure is on Orbán, and he has called for Russian help to smear his opponents. In Australia, there are more stories about panic buying of fuel, especially diesel, as farmers and fishers worry about availability to keep their operations going. They worry that food prices will be next. And staying in Australia, Westpac among others are suddenly forecasting that the RBA will hike its cash rate target by +25 bps on March 17 to 4.1% and again in May to 4.35%. The sudden rise in inflation threats are behind the sharp change, with their central bank "feeling compelled to act". The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.21%, up +7 bps from yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$58 from yesterday at US$5170/oz. Silver is down -US$4 at US$85.50/oz today. American oil prices are up +US$3, at just under US$87.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$91.50/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain essentially closed. But even if they reopened today, the status quo is unlikely to be restored. So the echo of this crisis may last a very long time. At least, that is what markets are pricing in. The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 59.1 USc. But against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 82.7 AUc. We are up +20 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -30 bps at just under 62.7. The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,706 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are betting Trump will 'declare victory' over Iran soon and walk back his war. But the Straits of Hormuz are still effectively closed - to all but Iranian-linked vessels. Perhaps oddly, markets are assuming they will open to all 'soon'. The US Navy has escorted one tanker through. The betting on TACO is strong. But separately today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little change to last week's full auction. That means those good prices were essentially maintained, so no sign yet that the global rise in dairy supply is hurting prices. In the US, the ADP weekly jobs report rose +15,500, the same as the prior week, a steadying after five weeks of modest gains. Existing US home sales rose marginally in February but that was better than expectations that they would fall. That leaves them -1.4% lower than year-ago levels. Despite the recent rebound, unsold inventory rose at a sharper rate. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell for a second consecutive month in February when it was expected to rise (marginally). The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 8 points to a net 8%. Today's UST 3yr bond auction brough another modest rise in yields from the prior equivalent event. In Canada, their travel to the US is down more than -30% in February compared to the pre-tariff period, replaced by much higher travelling to other places. Interestingly, visits by American to Canada are rising. Canada is also attracting notably more tourists from other countries too, presumably those avoiding the US. In Japan, machine tool orders remained especially strong in February, especially export orders. China's exports rose almost +22% in February from the same month a year ago, its best rise since the pandemic. Imports were up almost +20%. Their exports to New Zealand rose only +1.6% but their imports are up almost +26%. Their exports to Australia rose +32% while their imports were up +29%. Their February trade with the US was even stronger with exports up +27% and imports up +36%. In Malaysia, January industrial production expanded by +5.9% from a year ago, beating market estimates of a +5.4% rise and the previous month’s +4.8% increase. Their factory sector posted even stronger rises. In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey showed consumers remain firmly pessimistic, although sentiment continues to show some resilience. Daily responses in their survey show a material weakening over the survey week. The results were less pessimism on current finances and attitudes towards major purchases. On the economy it reveals more unease near-term but less concern about the medium-term. Unemployment expectations pushed up above long-run average levels, led by the over-45s. Staying in Australia, the NAB business confidence survey found that business conditions were steady in February, but sentiment slipped, with confidence now in negative territory for the first time in almost a year, likely reflecting some caution in the ​wake of the February RBA rate hike. This survey didn't really pick up the more recent Middle East war effects because it was conducted from February ⁠23 ​to March 2 and so only ​caught the very beginning of the US-Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent spike ​in energy prices. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.14%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$126 from yesterday at US$5229/oz. Silver is up +US$5 at US$89.50/oz today. American oil prices are down -US$9.50, at just under US$84.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$10.50 to be now just on US$88.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 59.5 USc. But against the Aussie we are down a sharp -80 bps at 82.2 AUc. We are up +10 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +10 bps at just under 63. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,226 and up another +3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are unsure about whether public efforts to calm the financial consequences of the war on Iran will work. Just at the moment, it's a wait-and-see situation. But first in the US, the latest inflation expectations survey for February is out, revealing very little change. In the absence of subsequent events this stability might have seemed 'positive', but it is now only of historical note. More currently, across the US, there are sharp rises in petrol prices. Those were responding to US$90/bbl crude prices. They are now up from there. Meanwhile, we should probably note that there is a partial US shutdown underway. Among other impacts, security screening staff at airports are in layoff, not being paid. That is making travel in and through the US particularly messy. Across the Pacific, Taiwanese exports fell in February to 'only' US$50 bln in the month, and up only +20.6% from the same month a year ago. But much of this can be explained by how the Chinese New Year holiday occurred this year, China's CPI inflation rate jumped +1.0% in February from January to be up +1.3% from February a year ago. That takes them to a three year high. These were much sharper rises than expected and rises were expected. If both the US and China are now in a sharp-rising inflation period (and this data preceded the Iran crisis), then there is little chance New Zealand will be avoiding this pressure. Their beef prices are up +9.6% from a year ago, lamb prices up +6.6%. (Dairy prices there are down -1.1% on the same basis however.) Now of course, an oil shock is likely to juice their inflation with a new burst. Meanwhile China's producer price pressure eased in February, down just -0.9% from a year ago after their third [small] consecutive rise in month-on-month. Oil prices here will have an even larger impact. Japan’s leading economic index, which gauges the outlook for the months ahead using indicators such as job offers and consumer sentiment, rose in January to its highest level since July 2022, confirming their improving economic outlook. And here's something we don't normally look at. Business is picking up in Japan, enough that there is a notable rise in overtime pay there, the most since 2022. In Europe, German factory orders slumped -11.1% in January from December, far worse than market expectations for a -4.3% drop. And December was downwardly revised as well. It was the first decline since August, largely driven by a -39% plunge in fabricated metal products after large orders in the prior month created a high base. Demand also weakened for machinery and equipment. However, from a year ago, German factory orders were up +3.7% in January. (All this German data is inflation-adjusted.) In Australia, Commonwealth Bank has reported two mortgage brokers and a string of accountants to police as it works to unravel a gigantic loan fraud using fake documents and international funds that could extend to AU$1 bln, the AFR is reporting. On the commodities front, the big overnight mover is sulphur, a key fertiliser ingredient, up another 6%, and which has now doubled from a year ago. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.12%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$69 from yesterday at US$5103/oz. Silver is little-changed however at US$84.50/oz today. American oil prices are up +US$3, at just under US$94/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$6 to be now just on US$99/bbl. In between they have been very volatile, at one point reaching US$116/bbl. Relative calm came after G7 ministers started discussing releasing some strategic oil reserves. But there is no agreement or action on that yet, only 'possibilities'. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 84 AUc. We are up +50 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +20 bps at just over 62.9. The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,073 and up +3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of zero progress in the mess in the Middle East. In fact, it has probably gotten worse. And in the week ahead, geopolitical developments will likely dictate global market directions. Reports by the IEA and OPEC this week will reveal how the institutions see the supply shock of seaborne energy from the Persian Gulf. The spotlight on US economic data will be on consumer inflation for February (Thursday) and PCE for January (Saturday). Both are expected to rise (CPI to 2.5%, PCE to 2.9%) but everyone will know this is the base on what the March data (released on April 11) will be built on. Where US inflation goes, the bond market goes, and the cost of money locally, Of course, we will be tracking that for you. In China, they will release February inflation data, with headline CPI expected to firm to 0.8% from 0.2%, while producer prices are likely to decline at a slightly slower pace of 1.1%. They will also release new yuan loans data which is expected to decline in February, partly reflecting seasonal weakness linked to the Lunar New Year holidays. In Japan, we will get updated machine tool orders results. In Australia, it will be about consumer and business confidence, consumer inflation expectations. In India, it will also be about CPI data. Locally, apart from some retail data (card use) and more analysis on mortgage activity, data releases will be relatively quiet this week. But there will be plenty of news to follow, especially flowing from the consequences of shrinking workforces in the US, which will have global implications. The US economy shed -92,000 jobs in February at the headline level, the most in four months, following a downwardly revised +126,000 rise in January and much worse than forecasts of a +59,000 gain. From a year ago, payrolls are up +129,000 and that is unusually low. Apart from December's tiny +59,000 year-on-year gain you have to go back to the pandemic (and Trump 1) to find as weak a rise. It gets worse by broadening the view of all employment, not just payroll employment. That broader view shows overall employment down -391,000 in February from a year ago, the second consecutive shrinkage. US retail sales inched lower by -0.2% in January from December, slightly less that the expected dip. It was the first decline since October. From a year ago, they are +3.1% higher. Most of this is accounted for by 2.5% CPI core inflation. US inflation may be about to get a shock. Petrol pump prices are up today +10% from a year ago, up +18% from a month ago. And these costs are only just getting started with US crude oil up +35% in a week, up the same in a year. When US March CPI is reported, the Fed won't be able to look away.  They are facing fast-weakening labour markets and fast rising inflation. They have a dual mandate so they will have to choose what to prioritise. The simple fact is that inflation problems are harder to remedy using monetary policy tools than the labour market. Absent political pressure, they would want to fight inflation first. (If they choose the other goal, they will embed inflation for a very long time.) In Canada, their widely-watched Ivey PMI surged higher in February, a strong expansion signal, to its best since September 2025, and prior to that its best since July 2024. In the Persian Gulf, the Qatari oil minister said in the next few days they have to decide whether to declare force majeure, releasing them from obligations to deliver supplies to customers. He said that could drive crude prices to US$150/bbl. There are still no ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz - except Iran-linked ones. China’s foreign exchange reserves rose to US$3.428 tln in February, a small +US$30 bln increase over the previous month and the seventh consecutive monthly gain. These are now back to their highest level since November 2015. USD weakness helped, but it is clear US efforts to 'contain China' aren't working at the most fundamental level. Meanwhile, they bought slightly more gold and now have 74.22 mln troy ounces. American missteps have juiced the price of gold of course, so the value of their holdings rose +US$20 bln to US$388 bln at the end of February, now 11% of their total reserves. After falling consistently since August, the FAO food price index rose in February, basically tracking similar levels for the start of 2025. But there is wide variation between categories. Meat prices are steady, Dairy prices are falling as is sugar. Dairy prices are now at their lowest since the start of 2024. But vegetable oils are rising, and fast, with cereal prices turning higher too. Meanwhile, metals prices are rising, led by aluminium's overnight jump, and it is now approaching the heady heights of the pandemic peaks. Copper and zinc have been rising recently too, even nickel and zinc. Sulphur is another essential commodity at a peak, even higher than the pandemic levels. This is a particular problem for China. But iron ore prices are not joining the party. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.13%, up +2 bps from Saturday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$28 from Saturday at US$5172/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at US$84.50/oz today. American oil prices are up +US$1, at just under US$91/bbl, while the international Brent price is up a bit less to be now just on US$92.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD from Saturday, still just on 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 84 AUc. We are up +10 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed at just over 62.7. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,882 and down -2.0% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news bankrupt US/Israeli decisions to choose war over peaceful pressure are having global consequences. But first, the Federal Reserve Beige Book for February reported that overall US economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in seven of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while the number of Districts reporting flat or declining activity increased from four in the prior period to five in the current period. This is not a review that found strong growth. US jobless claims rose last week by +18,000 from the prior week to 213,000 but most of that can be accounted for by seasonal factors. There are now 2.21 mln people on these benefits, similar to this time last year, but significantly higher than the 2024 levels. February announced job cuts were lower than in January, but together the first two months have been almost as high as the equivalent 2025 levels. This survey also tracks hiring plans and that is down more than -50% from last year. Tomorrow the February US non-farm payrolls will be released and analysts expect a low +59,000 gain. That would be half the +130,000 January level, itself historically low. According to AAA monitoring, average petrol prices (91) in the US are now US$3.25/gal (NZ$1.46L / AU$1.23/L) This is up +9% from US$2.98/gal a week ago, up from US$2.89/gal a month ago, or a +12.5% rise. US natural gas prices are up +7.2% over the same time-frame but to be fair are still very low. But in Europe, these prices are up +70% (in the UK) and up 53% (in Germany) for example. In India, natural gas prices have tripled for many users over the past few days. It is natural to wonder what Trump would say if the EU (or India) took unilateral actions that imposed similar cost jumps on the US. It is no longer safe to be a 'friend' of the US, or any country that pursues policies that "put me first". American policymakers are scrambling to assess a wide range of materials where access is at risk. And institutions more broadly are doing the same. We need to start keeping a closer eye on supply chain pressures. The NY Fed's February monitoring shows it elevated but nothing like the pandemic period, although not yet accounting for the current stresses. Taiwanese industrial production rose +28.5% in January from a year ago, no surprise given the export order data we have been noting. But it is their sharpest rise in at least a decade, probably longer. However, things are not positive for Taiwanese retail sales; they actually decreased in January. But this was entirely due to Chinese New Year falling in a different period this year. Singapore retail sales data for January also got twisted by the holiday timing. The Malaysian central bank kept its policy rate unchanged overnight at 2.75%, saying inflation there is well contained. But they are worried about Middle East conflict effects. China said it is lowering its growth target - slightly. Premier Li Qiang is set to announce a "around 4.5 to 5%" target while delivering the government work report, a key policy document, at the opening session of the National People's Congress later today. The departure from the "around 5%" growth target for the past three years signals the start of a period of slower expansion in China. A big focus is on stabilising their moribund real estate markets. 'Stabilising' will undoubtedly mean subsidies and incentives to unlock buyer interest in the sector again. That will be a hard ask, given the widespread pain still in recent memory. EU retail sales rose +2.3% in January, although slightly less in the Euro Area. In Australia, household spending rose +4.6% in January from a year ago, the slowest pace since late May, following a +5.0% rise in December. This was a smaller increase than expected. Global container freight rates, which had been falling every week in 2026 so far, turned +3% higher last week as the early signs of the Middle East pressures started to mount. Outbound China rates are up +10% for the week. However, they are still -23% lower than year-ago levels. It might be different when this week’s data is released next week, of course. More currently, bulk cargo rates are up +6% for the week. Shipping traffic in the Straits of Hormuz has ceased altogether. (Live here.) And we should note ships outside the Strait are under attack too, so the conflict stresses are spreading. New Zealand and Australia have significant food exports into the Middle East region, and they are now disrupted. We noted the sharp rise in fertiliser costs yesterday and more broadly, that is bringing warnings of food shortage consequences. And as if these crises aren't enough, overshadowed is the Blue Owl private credit car crash in the US, and the wider concerns about their risky loans. Some insiders are now talking about a consequential "bank run" being caused by this. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.14%, up +6 bps from yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$71 from yesterday at US$5076/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at US$82/oz today. American oil prices are up more than +US$5.50, up +7% in a day, at just under US$79.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down the same to be now just on US$84.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 84.1 AUc. We are down -30 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -30 bps, now just over 62.6. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,316 and down -2.6% from this time yesterday, although holding on to a large part of yesterday's rise. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news both China and the US have parallel PMI surveys and this month each told wildly different stories about how their February economies were tracking. But first, after flat-lining in each of the past four week, US mortgage applications rose notably last week, driven by strong refi activity, covering continuing weak new home purchase applications. The US ADP employment report shows a gain of +63,000 jobs in February, the most since July, following a downwardly revised +11,000 rise in January. Analysts were anticipating a gain of +50,000. But all the gains were in the education and health sectors, and only in small (sub 20 employee) companies. As a result, the data shows data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching employers hit a record low in February. The ISM February services PMI for the US expanded more than expected to its best level since July 2022 with gains in all subcategories. Meanwhile the parallel S&P Global/Markit services told a quite different story, with the expansion in that sector falling to its lowest level since April 2025 amid a weaker rise in sales. In Taiwan, their exporting miracle has extended with export orders soaring +60% to a new record of US$77 bln in January, besting market expectations of a +51% surge and accelerating from a +44% gain in December. Yes, electronics drove the rise, but they also had strong rises in chemicals, textiles, and metals. Orders poured in from the US, the EU and from China. Export orders a year ago at US$48 bln were not weak, so this is truly an astounding trend. In China, their official February PMI's were dour affairs, even for them. Both the factory and service sector reports revealed contractions in the month, the factory sector worse than in January, their services sector a slightly less contraction than in the previous month. But in complete contrast, the private S&P Global/RatingDog surveys found something different, strong expansions in both sectors. New orders drove the factory one to its best expansion in five years, they say. and new business drove their services expansion to its fastest pace in nearly three years. In Europe, producer prices rose quite sharply in January from December, but most of that was retracing a sharp December fall. Year-on-year they are down -2.1% although most of that fall was earlier in the year. Australia reported that its economic activity rose +2.6% in Q4-2025, compared to the same period in 2024. Analysts had expected it to rise +2.2% on that basis, so it was a very positive outcome. GDP per capita increased for the fourth consecutive quarter and is now +0.9% higher than a year ago, the highest year-on-year growth since December 2022. For the full 2025, this is +2.0% (real) higher than calendar 2024. Compensation of employees rose +6.5% in the year. The household saving to income ratio increased to 6.9%, up from 6.1% in the September quarter. This ratio is now at its highest level since the September quarter 2022. All this data is 'real' after inflation. And we should note that the aluminium price surged overnight as Persian Gulf refineries declared force majeure on their orders due to the US/Israeli attacks in the area and Iran's response. The same tensions are forcing up fertiliser prices sharply. Urea prices have jumped +11% in one day. Australia imports two thirds of its urea from the Middle-East. The same ratio applies to New Zealand. And despite the "Trump guarantee" and promises of naval protection, if you can get it, insurance costs for shipping in the Persian Gulf has soared by +1300%. Insurers are completely dismissing Trump's 'promises'. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.08%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$30 from yesterday at US$5147/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at US$84/oz today. American oil prices are down -US$2 at just over US$74/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same to be now just over US$81/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.9 AUc. We are up +40 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +40 bps, now just on 62.9. The bitcoin price starts today at US$73,236 and up +8.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news inflation spike fear is gripping financial markets today as equities fall, bond yields rise, some key commodities like the oil price are spiking, and there is a sharp move toward perceptions of financial 'safety' which is hurting commodity-based currencies like the AUD and the NZD. The fear is based on seeing central banks hiking policy rates to weight against a looming inflation spike, just when economic activity is likely to weaken sharply on the consequences of Trump's wars. The fear is stagflation on steroids. It is affecting investors from New York to Shanghai. And now Trump is blaming friends (Spain, the UK) for not being supportive enough and threatening new trade restrictions. But it isn't universal - yet anyway. First up today, there has been another very good dairy auction overnight, the fifth positive one in a row, delivering prices up overall by +5.7% un USD terms. With the falling NZD, prices are up +8.4% in NZD. Our charts tell the story overall and in product detail. Basically prices are now back to the high 2025 levels in both USD and NZD terms. Yes, analysts will be reaching for their pencils to reassess the season's payout forecast, although we should caution that we are well past the peak of the milk flows - and that volumes offered and sold overnight are falling away seasonally. More broadly, in the US overnight, the February US Logistics Manager survey showed pressure on their system with rising inventories and strained capacity. Meanwhile the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index retreated in March from February, and delivering a decline when an rise was expected. This is largely because personal investor sentiment fell sharply as confidence in US government economic policies slipped away. In the Middle East, only one tanker, a Singaporean one, has managed to traverse the Straits of Hormuz in the past day. It's essentially closed still. Insurers have cancelled policies. Now the US says it is considering providing that, at taxpayer expense. The costs of war are broad. The scheduled meeting between Chinese President Xi and US President Trump is still on for the end of March. Given the unhinged policy-making by the US, it is a lottery on how this will play out. Trump will undoubtedly look for short-term, face-savings wins. Xi will be playing a much longer game. Meanwhile, China is putting the finishing touches to its latest five-year plan. We are approaching the rubber-stamp set piece. In Europe, the Euro area inflation rate rose to 1.9% in February, up from 1.7% in January. Although minor it was an unexpected rise. And that pushed core inflation up to 2.4% in February. Given the global rise in uncertainty, and the US/Israel/Iran crisis pushing up their energy costs very sharply in the past few days, these inflation levels are unlikely to stay this low in March, giving the ECB a new headache. In Australia, total residential building consents fell at a -7.2% rate in January, following a -30.7% drop in December. Year on year it is down -15.7%, the largest fall since late 2023. This may have ended the rising trend of approvals that started in July 2024. But there were 9,900 detached houses approved for construction nationally, a 41-month high. The big shortfall is in intensive housing. Australia’s current account balance fell by -AU$2.8 bln in December 2025 to a deficit of -AU$21.1 bln. This is its second consecutive fall, driven by a net primary income deficit widening. This will take -0.1 percentage points from the December 2025 GDP result which will be released tomorrow. In public comments yesterday, the RBA governor acknowledged the sudden increase in uncertainty in the global economy, on top of already high uncertainty from Trump's abandonment of an international rules-based order. She said "a supply shock could, for example, add to inflation pressures. And the potential implications for inflation expectations are something we are very alert to. But at the same time, a prolonged impact on energy markets could have adverse effects on global economic activity and result in downward pressure on inflation. It is not obvious how this might play out." Westpac says Brent crude at US$100 is entirely possible in the coming few weeks. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.06%, unchanged from yesterday, although it did get up to 4.11% in between.  The price of gold will start today down -US$179 from yesterday at US$5117/oz. Silver is down another -US$4 at US$83/oz today. American oil prices are up +US$5.50 at just under US$76/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same to be now just over US$82.50/bbl. These at +7.5% rises. A collapse in Iranian oil production could have quite deep impacts. The Kiwi dollar is another -50 bps lower against the USD from yesterday, now just on 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 83.8 AUc. We are down -60 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -40 bps, now just on 62.5 and a new one month low. The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,5755 and down -3.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the world has suddenly gotten far more dangerous after the US/Israeli strike on Iran. Shipping costs especially are in a dramatic rise on necessary re-routing. The cost of war will hit inflation soon and that is a looming problem for central bank policymakers. And investors are demanding higher yields from not only corporate paper, but benchmark government bonds as well. But first in the US, the February PMI from the widely-watched ISM survey dipped very slightly from January, but held up better than analysts were expecting. It is only the third time in 40 months that this metric shows an expansion. It was driven by prices and imports, both of which are rising faster. New order flows rose at a slower pace. This metric is basically the same as the parallel S&P Global factory PMI for February, which noted faltering exports. This contrasts with the latest EU PMI which reports its strongest rise in new factory orders since April 2022 taking their factory PMI to a 44-month high. But coming with it are building inflationary pressures. Driving this result is a notable uptick in Germany which is now back in expansion. The rise and rise of Japanese manufacturing is now getting real momentum. Their February factory PMI burst out of its trend (confirming the January rise), to now be at almost a four year high. This is on the back of output, new orders and employment that all expanded at their fastest rates since January 2022. Not to be outdone, Taiwan's factory PMI rose sharply too in February, although this also came with higher inflationary pressure than for Japan. Firms there are struggling to meet demand. In some other selected Asian nations, their factory PMI's were mostly positive. This is true for Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand, although the same survey in Malaysia isn't quite so positive. Indian industrial production rose 4.8% in January from a year ago, and while most countries would love that, it represents a sharp slowing from December's +8.0% and is way below the +6.5% expected. The December rate was unusual however, and the January expansion mirrors what we saw for most of 2025. China announced late yesterday that they attracted ¥92 bln (US$12.6 bln) in foreign direct investment in January 2026. This was -5.7% less than in January 2025. But we probably should also note that the December FDI was quite good, standing out from the long run of negative flows. (The December inflow was +US$20.6 bln.) In Australia, the Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge recorded an easing in monthly inflation in February, dipping -0.2% from January. The main influence were lower fuel prices. In annual terms, however, headline inflation remains elevated above the RBA's 2–3% target band and has exceeded the top-end of the band for the past six months. Changes in the monthly cost of living were mixed, with employee households experiencing the largest monthly increase. And staying in Australia, the Cotality Home Value Index rose +0.7% in February, easing slightly from a +0.8% gain in January. Price growth remained strong in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, but values were flat in Melbourne and Sydney. Year on year, national home values rose +9.6%, moderating from +10.2% rise in January on this basis. Globally, we should probably note that the aluminium price is up during this turmoil, now at a four-year high. And tin has taken off, now at a record high. Copper is near a record high too, but it isn't changed during this crisis; its been at the current level all year. Also globally, we should note that air cargo demand rose +5.6% in January from a year ago with international airfreight up +7.2%, driven by the +9.4% rise in the Asia/Pacific region, and restrained by the +1.4% riser in North America. Meanwhile passenger air travel rose +3.8% with international travel up +5.9%. It is notable that domestic air travel fell in the US on a year-on-year basis. But it also did in Australia as well. And ocean freight costs have surged in the past day, shocking many as ships need to be re-routed away from the Middle East. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.06%, up +10 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$18 from yesterday at US$5296/oz. Overnight it got up to a new record high of US$5415 but it has retraced since then. Silver is down a sharp -US$6 at US$87/oz today also after an interim burst higher. American oil prices are up +US$3.50 at just on US$70.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$4 to be now just over US$77/bbl. These at +6% rises. Given the intensified Middle East tensions, this seems pretty restrained. But European natural gas prices have leapt overnight. The Kiwi dollar is -70 bps lower against the USD from yesterday, now just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 83.9 AUc. We are down -20 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -50 bps, now just on 62.9 and a one month low. The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,835 and up +5.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Trump has got his distraction war, flooding the recent zone of poor news with an adventure he has created. Business eyes will be on how the financial markets react. (Others can watch the politics.) So far, the equity futures markets have the S&P500 virtually unchanged (+0.1%), the US Treasury 10 year down -8 bps from their Friday close, and the USD (DXY) lower from Friday, but little-changed from a week ago. Oil prices will be closely watched, because the Strait of Hormuz has been closed by Iran. So far they are up 3% in off-market weekend reactions. Gold is up modestly so far too, but silver and platinum have jumped sharply, both gaining about +6% and both heading back toward the late-January peaks. Spreads, or the premium companies must pay over a risk-free US Treasury, are at their highest since November for investment grade companies, and their the highest since December for those with a sub-investment grade rating. But first, looking ahead this week, there is a raft of second tier data released locally, including some trade, and more importantly mortgage markets data. And we will get the Q4-2025 RBNZ Dashboard data, exposing the winners and losers among the local banks. In Australia. it will be all about the Q4-2025 GDP, and household spending data this week In the US on the economic front, they will have their non-farm payrolls report for February at the end of the week. We will get independent ISM PMIs and retail sales updated too. In China, data will be relatively light as Beijing insists its news attention is on their next five year plan meetings. But there will be PMIs out in China, as well as Canada, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Trade data are also scheduled from Indonesia, while inflation figures will be released in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan. Additionally, the Malaysian central bank is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision. Over the weekend, the US PPI release shows that inflation has their producer prices firmly in its grip. Year-on-year this measure of industrial inflation wasn't too special at +2.9%, but core PPI was up +3.4% and the jump in January from December of +0.5% grabbed analysts' attention. Tariff-taxes are driving the increases as importers refuse to absorb some of these costs anymore. Meanwhile some of this also showed up in the Chicago PMI for February. The Chicago Business Barometer was expected to ease lower. Rather it leapt into a strong expansion. It was so different to the data around it on the ground had suggested, it might be wise not to jump to any early conclusions on the gain. And let's not forget the growing worries about 'cockroaches'. Concerns about the risks of private credit are not going away just because they are overshadowed by geopolitical tensions. In fact, those tensions will bring risk aversion and likely magnify the private credit risks. Investors who want out could trigger something big. Across the Pacific, Korean exports turned in another gigantic result in February, showing that the extraordinary January was no fluke. Their exports were +29.0% that a year ago at a record US$67.5 bln for the month, and this was even though there were three fewer working days and the Lunar New Year holiday break. It is another extraordinary result. Both the US and China saw imports from Korea rise more than +30% for each. In China, we should keep an eye on their car industry. They have returned from holiday with a large excess of unsold stock and are responding with promotions that feature heavy discounting. This may trigger a reckoning for many carmakers, large or small. Like their property industry, it could have wide-ranging implications. And staying in China, according to estimates by China International Capital Corp, roughly ¥75 tln (NZ$18 tln) in household term deposits will mature this year, and most of it had maturities of one year or longer. Most will be reinvested, but with such enormous flows, even small amounts diverted (to say gold, or higher risk/return options) will have very important impacts. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 3.96%, down -6 bps from this time Saturday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$93 from yesterday at US$5278/oz. Silver is up +US$5.50 at US$93/oz today. When global markets reopen, it will be unsurprising to see these prices rise sharply. American oil prices are up almost +US$2 at just on US$67/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$73/bbl. But when global markets reopen today, expect a sharp rise as well. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD from Saturday, still just on 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 84.3 AUc. We are little-changed against the yen as well. Against the euro we are holding at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today basically the same as Saturday, still just on 63.4. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,168 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, also at just over +/- 2.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.