The World Unpacked

The AI boom is the biggest investment mania in decades, channeling trillions of dollars into data center infrastructure.  If investors bet right, they may usher in technological breakthroughs that produce vast wealth.  If they’re wrong, they could crash the U.S. stock market, trigger a recession, and spread financial contagion globally.Ed Zitron was among the first to call AI a bubble.  His unsparing deep dives into AI finances are must-reads, even for his critics.  In a spirited back-and-forth on The World Unpacked, Ed and host Jon Bateman debate Wall Street’s “unhealthy relationship” with Nvidia, if China has its own AI bubble, and whether ChatGPT should give tax advice.Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/ais-biggest-skeptic-sees-a-bubble? Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman   

 We’re living through an era of information disruption.  Novel technologies like AI and social media are unleashing pent-up social and political energies—releasing floods of new information and triggering intense battles for narrative control.While most analysts focus on small pieces of this puzzle, Alicia Wanless is a pioneering “information ecologist” who seeks to map the entire system. Her new book is The Information Animal: Humans, Technology, and The Competition for Reality.In a lively new episode of The World Unpacked, Alicia and host Jon Bateman discuss what 2025 has in common with 1625, how novels spark civil wars, and why our frantic efforts to tame information often do more harm than good. Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/why-information-refuses-to-be-controlled?Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman  

On November 5, the Supreme Court heard the most globally consequential oral arguments in years as Trump’s trade war faces a final legal reckoning. The Court will either strike down most of Trump’s tariffs, undercutting him in trade talks, or else hand U.S. presidents previously unimagined new powers over the global economy.Peter Harrell is a top trade expert and lawyer fighting the tariffs on behalf of 207 members of Congress.  He joins host Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to take stock of the ever-changing tariffs, peer into the Justices’ decision-making process, and predict the fallout for America and the world.Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/trumps-dollar200-billion-tariff-showdown-at-the-supreme-court? Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman   

A House of Dynamite, a new Netflix film, may be the most realistic depiction of a nuclear crisis ever made. Screenwriter Noah Oppenheim partnered with Oscar-winning director Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty, The Hurt Locker) to capture the intimate details of the U.S. national security state as a president (Idris Elba) and his advisors confront the riskiest 19 minutes in human history.Oppenheim, the former president of NBC News, joins Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked. They discuss Trump’s missile defense plans, the filmmaking process, and Hollywood’s surprising influence on nuclear policy—from Dr. Strangelove to Crimson Tide.Find the episode transcript, video episode, and get the show direct to your inbox, here.Follow Jon on X (https://x.com/JonKBateman) here.

MS-13 brought El Salvador to its knees and has spread to a dozen other nations, doing battle with presidents as much as rival gangs. Yet despite its infamy, MS-13 is poorly understood: It has little in common with the cartels, traffickers, or mafias that it’s often lumped in with.What is the violent logic behind MS-13, and why has it grown steadily more powerful during both crackdowns and truces? Has President Nayib Bukele’s unprecedented brutality finally turned the tide against MS-13 in El Salvador, and does he have a plan for what comes next? If it takes an autocrat to slay a gang, should countries trade one beast for another?Steven Dudley, author of the award-winning book MS-13: The Making of America’s Most Notorious Gang, joins Jon Bateman for a gripping new episode of The World Unpacked.Find the episode transcript, video episode, and get the show direct to your inbox, here.Follow Jon on X (https://x.com/JonKBateman) here.

The end of USAID was among the biggest early controversies of President Donald Trump’s second term. The world watched in horror as Elon Musk’s DOGE took a chainsaw to U.S. foreign assistance, placing millions of lives at risk with brutal across-the-board cuts.But few people realize how much has changed since then. Behind the scenes, aid money was largely restored—for now. And instead of making grandiose fraud accusations, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has begun embracing aid in public, laying out promising plans to address problems long recognized by technocrats.Rachel Bonnifield is a leading global health expert and proud member of the NGO ecosystem denounced by Trump officials—yet she admires much of their new strategy. She joins The World Unpacked to make a surprising case for many Trump reforms, while also warning of risks, including the potential for more disruptions in the coming months.Find the episode transcript, video episode, and get the show direct to your inbox, here.Follow Jon on X (https://x.com/JonKBateman) here.

Brazil’s Supreme Court has just convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro of attempting a coup to nullify his 2022 election loss. The country’s judicial system and Justice Alexandre de Moraes, a polarizing figure whom the co-conspirators had sought to assassinate, acted boldly, sentencing Bolsonaro to twenty-seven years in prison.Brazil is now the global leader in democratic accountability for “self-coups,” a once-rare phenomenon that has surged recently, even in places such as South Korea and the United States. That’s why the world is watching Brazil’s grand experiment—especially in Washington, where President Donald Trump has levied massive tariffs to punish what he calls a “witch hunt” against his former ally.Oliver Stuenkel, a prominent analyst of Brazilian politics, breaks down these events with Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked. Will Bolsonaro’s conviction restore democratic guardrails or further polarize the country? And what does it mean for the United States to intervene in the politics of a fellow democracy with unprecedented levels of economic coercion?Find the episode transcript, video episode, and get the show direct to your inbox, here.Follow Jon on X (https://x.com/JonKBateman) here. 

Nate Soares is one of the world’s leading AI “doomers” and co-author of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All—the New York Times Bestseller that everyone in tech is debating. In this debut episode of a revamped The World Unpacked, new host Jon Bateman talks to Nate about his provocative argument that superintelligent AI could destroy all humans in our lifetimes—and how the U.S., China, and other countries should band together to stop it.What is superintelligent AI and how soon will it emerge? Why are tech companies explicitly aiming to create something that the CEOs themselves—and respected independent experts—acknowledge is an existential threat? Is it feasible for the U.S., China, and other major players in the global AI race to agree to a worldwide freeze on the technology? And how did Nate come to these realizations—and mourn for what he sees as humanity’s possible lost future?Find the episode transcript, video episode, and get the show direct to your inbox, here.Follow Jon on X (https://x.com/JonKBateman) here. 

In this episode of The World Unpacked, host Isaac Kardon is joined by Alexander (Sasha) Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin and one of the world’s leading experts on Russia-China relations. Together, they unpack the growing geopolitical competition in the Arctic—a region increasingly shaped by strategic cooperation between Russia and China, and generally neglected or misunderstood by U.S. policymakers.This conversation dives deep into the overlooked maritime theater connecting the U.S., Russia, and China. Kardon and Gabuev explore the security implications of a warming Arctic, the dynamics of great power rivalry, the potential limits of the China-Russia partnership, and what’s at stake for the U.S. and its allies.Article mentioned: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/trump-greenland-arctic-russia-china-nato-strategy-geopolitics-security/

Subsea cables carry 95% of the world’s data—but remain largely invisible in global policy debates. In this episode, Isaac Kardon is joined by Carnegie experts Jane Munga and Sophia Besch to unpack the geopolitics, economics, and security risks surrounding undersea data infrastructure. From Africa’s digital development to Europe’s hybrid warfare concerns, they explore who owns these cables, why they matter, and how governments can respond to emerging infrastructure threats.Notes:Sophia Besch and Erik Brown, "Securing Europe's Subsea Data Cables," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 16, 2024.Jane Munga, "Beneath the Waves: Addressing Vulnerabilities in Africa’s Undersea Digital Infrastructure," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 3, 2025.

How should we understand China’s unique variety of party-state capitalism? In this episode of The World Unpacked, Isaac Kardon sits down with Dr. Meg Rithmire, a renowned scholar of political economy in China and the James E. Robison Professor at Harvard Business School, to discuss how capitalism functions in a party-state that tries to maintain “rule by market” without ceding too much control to private capital. Their discussion is based on Dr. Rithmire’s chapter in a new volume released from Carnegie called The Life of the Party: Past and Present Constraints on the Future of the Chinese Communist Party. They explore how private capitalists have been important to China’s economy since the 1950s, and how China attempts to exert control over companies to ensure that their activities serve party-state objectives, like Made in China 2025.Notes:1. Yvonne Chiu, Isaac B. Kardon, Jason M. Kelly, “The Life of the Party: Past and Present Constraints on the Future of the Chinese Communist Party,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 9, 2025. 

The world is entering a new nuclear age—one defined by proliferating arsenals, eroding arms control, and rising geopolitical tensions. In this episode, Isaac Kardon sits down with international security expert and Stanton Senior Fellow Ankit Panda to discuss the return of nuclear weapons to the center of global strategy. As Russia issues nuclear threats, China and North Korea expand their capabilities, and emerging technologies like AI reshape the battlefield, the risks of confrontation are growing. Can new approaches to stability and deterrence pull us back from the brink? Learn more in this week's episode of The World Unpacked.Notes:Ankit Panda, The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon (Cambridge: Polity, 2025), https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/04/the-new-nuclear-age-at-the-precipice-of-armageddon?lang=en

As U.S.-China tensions deepen, Beijing is carving out a new role for itself—not just as an economic powerhouse, but as a global security player. What does China’s vision of “comprehensive national security” mean for countries caught in the middle of great-power competition? And how are smaller states navigating the shifting landscape of global security partnerships? In this episode, Isaac Kardon sits down with Sheena Chestnut Greitens to explore how China is providing security assistance to governments around the world—and how Beijing is reshaping the current landscape of international security cooperation.Notes:Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Isaac B. Kardon, “Security without Exclusivity: Hybrid Alignment under U.S.-China Competition,” International Security (Winter 2024-25), https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00504Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Isaac B. Kardon, “Vietnam Wants U.S. Help at Sea and Chinese Help at Home,” Foreign Policy (Jan. 2025), https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/13/vietnam-us-strategic-partnership-china-great-power-rivalry/Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Isaac B. Kardon, “Playing Both Sides of the US-China Rivalry: Why Countries Get External Security from the US—and Internal Security from Beijing,” Foreign Affairs (March 2024), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/playing-both-sides-us-chinese-rivalry

In this episode of The World Unpacked, Isaac B. Kardon sits down with Ashley J. Tellis, Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Andrew Yeo, Senior Fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair at the Brookings Institution. They explore how the role of overseas bases has changed over time and how the U.S., China, and Russia—among other countries—use them to project power today. Despite advances in technology and long-range weapons, bases remain key to grand strategy, political influence, and sustained military reach.

In this episode of The World Unpacked, Isaac Kardon is joined by Darcie Draudt-Véjares to explore how the shipbuilding industry is reshaping global security and industrial policy. They discuss Washington's faltering commercial shipbuilding sector, China's rise through state-led integration, and South Korea and Japan’s dominance in high-tech ship production. Can the U.S. rebuild its maritime power—and what lessons can it learn from its global allies?

In President Donald Trump’s second term, Latin America has taken center stage in U.S. foreign policy—but not without controversy. From aggressive deportation flights to economic coercion and even veiled threats of military action, the Trump administration’s confrontational stance is straining relations across the region.In this episode, Oliver Stuenkel joins Sophia to unpack how these developments are reshaping regional politics and prompting Latin American leaders to reassess their relationship to the United States. Could China emerge as a more stable and attractive partner for countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico? And what would this mean for U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere?Notes: Oliver Stuenkel and Margot Treadwell, "Will Trump's Unpredictable Foreign Policy Boost BRICS?" Foreign Policy, March 24, 2025.

After over a year of devastating conflict, Israel and Hamas reached a three-phase ceasefire agreement in January 2025, brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. The deal allowed for significant increases in humanitarian aid deliveries, prisoner and hostage exchanges, and discussions for a potential permanent ceasefire.This episode was recorded on March 11, ten days after the scheduled completion of Phase 1. Since then, the ceasefire has remained in limbo—Israel is pushing to extend Phase 1, while Hamas wants to advance to Phase 2 negotiations, under which a permanent ceasefire would be established. With talks stalled and a spike in resumed violence on March 18, the road ahead remains uncertain, especially as U.S. policy under President Trump continues to shift.In this episode, Sophia Besch sits down with Zaha Hassan, a Fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program and a human rights lawyer. She previously served as the senior legal advisor to the Palestinian negotiating team during Palestine’s bid for UN membership and is a regular participant in track II peace efforts. Together, they explore the fragile ceasefire in Gaza—its implications, challenges and delays with implementation, and the evolving role of the United States in the region under President Donald Trump's administration.Notes:Zaha Hassan and H. A. Hellyer, Suppressing Dissent: Shrinking Civic Space, Transnational Repression and Palestine-Israel, (Oneworld, 2024).

Nearly a week after the tense Oval Office meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky, and just days after the Trump administration’s abrupt decision to pause military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, serious questions loom over America’s commitment to Kyiv’s security. At the same time, the White House appears to be exploring a thaw with Moscow—including potential sanctions relief with little in return.In this episode, Sophia Besch and Dara Massicot unpack the implications of these moves: What message does this send to Ukraine and its European allies? How are European leaders responding? And what does this shift mean for U.S. foreign policy and great power competition?Notes:Dara Massicot, Russian Military Reconstitution: 2030 Pathways and Prospects, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 12, 2024.

What's going on in the Korean Peninsula following the impeachment of South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol? How will evolving politics shape Seoul's future relations with North Korea? How will domestic political shifts in the U.S. shape foreign policy and great power relations among Washington, Beijing, Seoul, and Pyongyang?Asia Program Fellow Darcie Draudt-Véjares and Senior Fellow Chung Min Lee discuss these questions and more in this special feature episode of The World Unpacked.

Rising sea levels and climate-driven flooding are reshaping the global economy, with major implications for the U.S. housing market and the global economy. As millions of homes face increased risk, mortgage defaults could surge, home values may plummet, and financial instability could spread worldwide. Governments will soon need large-scale strategies to relocate coastal populations and manage mounting disaster relief costs.In this episode, we explore how climate change threatens financial stability and whether the U.S. is facing another housing market bubble. Sophia Besch discusses these questions with Susan Crawford, a senior fellow for Carnegie's Climate, Sustainability, and Geopolitics Program.Notes:Susan Crawford, Charleston: Race, Water, and the Coming Storm, (Pegasus Books, 2023).Amitov Ghosh, The Nutmeg's Curse: Parables for a Planet in Crisis, (University of Chicago Press, 2021).