Saxo Market Call

Today a look at equity market divergences in evidence on Friday as many stocks were lower, perhaps on the fresh rise in bond yields, while many large cap and momentum stocks did well on the day and are off to a strong start this week. Elsewhere, USDJPY is the critical focus in FX, there is plenty to discuss on the geopolitical front, both in terms of oil supply risks and the Trump-Xi summit set for Thursday and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links As we look at high petrol and record diesel prices in recent days, the WSJ covered the risk of a US refined product export embargo, how it would work and the potential price impacts. WSJ does a more than 30-minute deep dive on North Korea's secret US work force. Remarkable stuff. On the headlines trumpeting Saudi Arabia's quitting mBridge, China's cross-border currency platform, apparently there may far less of geopolitical import. Consider coverage on X from Endgame Macro and Luke Gromen as well as the most thorough take from Izabella Kaminska.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the steep JPY sell-off post Bank of Japan rate hike as the market was gunning for a firmer commitment to BoJ hiking and a stronger US dollar was already weighing in the background. Also, the BoE surprised slightly dovishly but moved to stabilize the long end of the UK yield curve. Also, we look at the pivotal situation for US stocks as we navigate triple witching ahead of next week's action. This and more on today's podcast, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links John's latest The FX Trader piece looking at the Bank of Japan reaction, Bank of England meeting and USDJPY technicals. The Real Eisman Playbook podcast poo-poohs the idea that AI security concerns are the real driver of Anthropic's call for a "slowdown".  And FTAlphaville is out joining the dots with its latest AI cross-commitment diagram showing how all of the AI companies financing is interconnected. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in places. Is this in respect of the incoming BoJ, the deflation of oil prices or because we are entering a new pivot zone for interest rates and possibly the US dollar? This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Meta's Zuckerberg isn't for the AI slowdown, prefers "evaluators" DeepQuarry questions Anthropic's pre-IPO claims of its profitability (first portion of post available for free) Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a remarkably resilient equity market even as the fresh spike in oil prices weigh and global bond yields have rushed to new highs for the cycle in many key markets. Looking at US equity market internals, the impact of Anthropic CEO Amodei's call for a "slowdown" in AI development (and perhaps Trump's aggressive poo-pooing of the idea) seems a more important factor for this market, as key AI hardware names sold off and many software-as-a-service companies rallied steeply on the day. Lots more on today's pod on commodities with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and on macro and FX and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links A great LinkedIn post from Felix Martin (HT to the great Izabella Kaminska) with a round-up of other links to the debate on open-source (usually really open-weight) versus closed source AI models - not necessarily drawing the same conclusion that the market drew from Anthropic's "slowdown" call. One of the better links was to a Toby Nangle FT column on the open-source threat to hyperscalers as well. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a heady cocktail of developments are coming at us across geopolitics, intermarket forces, but especially a new twist in the AI story as Anthropic CEO Amodei calls for an AI development "slowdown" with other key industry voices chiming in with supportive comments. We discuss what this may be all about as risk sentiment is rather spooked by the story and by the latest surge in oil prices and bond yields still pressing on cycle highs. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen breaks down the latest COT report showing shifts in positioning across the US futures market complex, including some huge shifts in the FX space. Arnaud Bertrand says China is hyperscaling an AI data center far beyond anything the rest of the world has ever seen in the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia. WSJ runs an article on Russia's new generations of drones, which are applying new levels of pressure on Ukraine. Cory Doctorow with a very different take (LLM's are real, AI is fake) on the infamous "Hugging Face incident" as he pokes fun at the breathless anthropomorphizing of how AI agents hacked into systems and used message boards to communicate, etc., arguing that all of their actions were fully based on training data and showed no sign of intelligence. Many cool sub-links in this piece as well. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.