The SharePickers Podcast with Justin Waite

In this episode of Macro, Micro and Small Cap News, we examine historical September market weakness alongside a convergence of macroeconomic headwinds—from spiking sovereign bond yields to persistent inflation pressures and the spector of stagflation. We also look at Vanguard’s ultra-low-cost global ETF launch and dive into the operational turnaround at UK small-cap lender Funding Circle ahead of its interim results.Vanguard’s Disruptive Launch:Vanguard FTSE Global All-Cap UCITS ETF (VALL): Offering exposure to ~10,100 stocks across 48 markets with an Ongoing Charges Figure (OCF) of just 0.07%—less than a third of the classic index fund’s 0.23%. Assets under management have surged from under $50m at launch to $645m in just two weeks. A Macro Story: 3 Reasons the Markets Are Bearish: 1. September Seasonality & The Correlation Trap: The S&P 500 averages -1.1% in September with a win rate of only ~45% since 1928, marked by asymmetric tail-risk downside. High long-term correlation between the S&P 500 and UK indices (+0.60 to +0.80 with the FTSE 100; +0.50 to +0.70 with the FTSE 250) means US turbulence spills directly into UK portfolios. 2. The Sovereign Bond Sell-Off & Collapsing Equity Risk Premium: Benchmark 10-year yields across the US, UK, and Europe sit near pre-2008 highs, driven by heavy debt issuance, quantitative tightening, and revived term premiums. Higher risk-free rates pull capital from equities into fixed income and compress the Equity Risk Premium below 100 bps. 3. Sticky Inflation & The Stagflation Dilemma: Persistent services inflation and European natural gas spikes limit central banks’ flexibility. If rising yields curb growth while inflation holds firm, markets face a stagflation bind—exposing an economy where AI capex has generated roughly three-quarters of early 2026 US GDP growth. Company Worth Researching: Funding Circle (LSE: FCH): Strong HY 2026 trading update ahead of full interims on September 8: revenue up 50% to ~£138m, profit before tax surging to ~£23m, and an unrestricted cash balance of £136m. High cash generation from the core Term Loans segment funding rapid 71% transaction growth in FlexiPay and Card, alongside ongoing capital returns via a £25m share buyback program. ***** About The SharePickers Investment Club ***** The SharePickers Investment Club employs a unique, systematic method to uncover small, profitable companies on the London Stock Exchange. Each potential investment undergoes comprehensive analysis and is evaluated against 15 crucial financial metrics. This fact-based, quantitative approach allows us to pinpoint high-potential growth businesses and deliver consistent results, bypassing the hype and focusing on the numbers. Please visit www.sharepickers.com NOTHING IN THIS PODCAST OR ANYTHING ASSOCIATED WITH SHAREPICKERS.COM SHOULD BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. IT IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND / OR SEEK THE ADVICE OF AN FCA REGULATED FINANCIAL ADVISOR.

In this episode of Macro, Micro and Small Cap News, we dissect Nvidia's latest earnings and break down why the massive AI capex cycle could lead to sharp earnings revisions by 2027–2028. PLUS Turning to UK equities, we evaluate two growth-focused small caps: AdvancedAdvT (ADVT), led by Vin Murria OBE with a substantial cash pile and a 22.33% combined stake in M&C Saatchi; and Brave Bison (BBSN), detailing their ongoing bid for System1 (SYS1), strong organic momentum, and a 104% year-over-year revenue increase in recent interim results.Special Summer Offer: Get 40% off your annual Sharepickers Investment Club membership (down from £249 to £149). Use coupon code POD40 at checkout on Sharepickers.com before midnight on August 31, 2026.Key Topics Covered:Macro Deep Dive: The 5 Catalysts Threatening the AI Boom The 10:1 revenue gap between capex buildout and real software spend. Circular financing, private credit, and chip collateral risks. CommoditiSation of models ("cheap intelligence") and electric grid bottlenecks. The multi-year depreciation lag: Why hyperscalers (Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft) are turning into capital-intensive infrastructure utilities. Macro & Indices: UK Small-Cap Stock Research: AdvancedAdvT (LON: #ADVT): Serial entrepreneur Vin Murria OBE’s proven buy-and-build playbook, £96m+ net cash, and the strategic cross-holding in M&C Saatchi (LON: #SAA). Brave Bison (AIM: #BBSN): The high-stakes 28% cornerstone stake in System1 (AIM: #SYS1), disciplined M&A execution, and interim financial highlights (+104% revenue growth). ***** About The SharePickers Investment Club ***** The SharePickers Investment Club employs a unique, systematic method to uncover small, profitable companies on the London Stock Exchange. Each potential investment undergoes comprehensive analysis and is evaluated against 15 crucial financial metrics. This fact-based, quantitative approach allows us to pinpoint high-potential growth businesses and deliver consistent results, bypassing the hype and focusing on the numbers. Please visit www.sharepickers.com NOTHING IN THIS VIDEO OR ANYTHING ASSOCIATED WITH SHAREPICKERS.COM SHOULD BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. IT IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND / OR SEEK THE ADVICE OF AN FCA REGULATED FINANCIAL ADVISOR.

If an AI Crash Happens, It Will Be 5x Worse Than Dot-Com Bubble PoppingIn this episode of Macro, Micro and Small Cap News, we examine two major macro developments pointing to aggressive financial engineering.First, US national debt crosses $40 trillion, pushing 30-year Treasury yields to near 20-year highs. We break down the US Treasury's bond buyback programme and why funding it with short-term T-bills introduces severe rollover risk into the financial system.Second, we analyze the AI earnings bubble and circular funding structures involving Nvidia, hyperscalers, and neocloud providers like CoreWeave. We explore what happens if commercial AI monetization continues to lag behind massive infrastructure capex.We also cover market movements in Gold and Bitcoin, followed by company research on UK-listed small caps: gaming publisher Everplay (EVPL) following the launch of Hell Let Loose: Vietnam, and SaaS provider Cerillion (CER).Special Summer OfferGet 40% off membership to the Sharepickers Investment Club with our Summer Special discount: Discount Code: POD40 (Capital letters, no spaces) Offer Price: £149 (reduced from £249) Expiry Date: 31st August 2026 How to Claim: Visit Sharepickers.com, scroll down to the checkout section, and enter POD40 in the "Have a Coupon" field. Show Notes Macro Story 1: US National Debt Crosses $40 Trillion Contextualizing $40 trillion: servicing costs exceeding $1 trillion annually and debt reaching roughly 120% of US GDP. Surging 30-year Treasury yields reaching ~5.3% and the impact on borrowing costs. US Treasury bond buyback expansion funded via short-term T-bills and the resulting rollover risk. Macro Story 2: The AI Earnings Bubble & Circular Deals The divergence between massive capex spend on data centers/GPUs and realized end-user software revenues. Hyperscaler cash flow pressures in the race for market dominance. Case study of circular vendor financing structures, accounting useful life vs. debt maturities, and index concentration risks. Market Movements: Commodities & Crypto Spiking bond yields driving Gold’s rally. Bitcoin price strength, short liquidations, and US administration commentary regarding digital asset purchases. Small-Cap Stock Research Everplay (EVPL): Early SteamDB concurrent user data and estimated gross unit sales for Hell Let Loose: Vietnam, alongside its importance to H2 2026 weighting. Cerillion (CER): Review of H1 performance, the £42.5m Omantel contract, an expanding back-order book (£56m+), £31m cash position with zero debt, and moving average technicals. About The SharePickers Investment ClubThe SharePickers Investment Club employs a unique, systematic method to uncover small, profitable companies on the London Stock Exchange.Each potential investment undergoes comprehensive analysis and is evaluated against 15 crucial financial metrics. This fact-based, quantitative approach allows us to pinpoint high-potential growth businesses and deliver consistent results, bypassing the hype and focusing strictly on the numbers.Learn more at www.sharepickers.com.

In this episode of Macro, Micro and Small Cap News for Saturday, 15th August 2026, we examine major macro developments and take a deep dive into UK-listed video game publisher Everplay Group plc (AIM: #EVPL) following the launch of their flagship title. Macro News & Market Round-up: Auto industry pressure on electric vehicle targets. US updates on tariffs and global trade routes. Wild swings in South Korea's KOSPI index driven by heavy semiconductor weightings. Frasers Group acquiring Harvey Nichols. NOAA's forecast regarding an intensifying Super El Niño event. Company in Focus: Everplay Group plc (AIM: #EVPL) Strong Launch Data: Reviewing real-time SteamDB metrics for Hell Let Loose: Vietnam, which hit 30,614 concurrent players on day one (+43% over the original game's peak) and reached #2 in Global Top Sellers. 100% Owned First-Party IP: Capturing full publisher net revenue without third-party royalty drag. 5 Investment Catalysts: Margin expansion from owned IP, multi-year DLC monetisation potential, normalizing development spend driving free cash flow, a robust balance sheet with £60m–£65m net cash, and an attractive valuation discount. Special Summer Discount: Reminder to use code POD40 at Sharepickers.com before 31st August 2026 for 40% off membership.

In this episode of Macro, Micro and Small Cap News, we take a deep dive into UK market liquidity and outline a macro plan to fix wealth inequality while jump-starting domestic enterprise. Inspired by U.S. capital participation and newborn account models, we present a 10-point proposal to transform the Junior ISA (JISA) into a public-private wealth engine. Plus, an extended summer discount and three UK stocks worth adding to your watchlist.Key Topics Covered: Summer Discount Extension: Explaining the difference between meteorological and astronomical summer, plus an extension on the POD40 discount code (40% off Sharepickers Investment Club through August 31st). A Macro Story — Rebooting the UK Market: US vs. UK Market Culture: Why 60% of Americans invest in stocks versus only 35% in the UK, and how U.S. capital powerhouse status creates a virtuous liquidity cycle. The Upgraded JISA Proposal: Seeding every UK newborn with £1,000, allowing tax-deductible matching for donors/corporations, and requiring a mandatory 50% allocation to low-cost UK equity index funds. The Growth Math: How £1,000 at 7.5% annual return grows to £3,676 by age 18, or £14,800+ with modest £25/month family top-ups. 10 Economic Benefits: Igniting practical childhood financial literacy, re-energising domestic listed companies, banishing active fund fees, and creating a share-owning democracy. Parliamentary Petition: Feedback call on bringing this proposal to Parliament. 3 Stocks Worth Researching:The Property Franchise Group (#TPFG) S4 Capital (#SFOR) WINVIA (#WVIA) Rght now you can get 40% off the Sharepickers Investment club with our SPECIAL SUMMER 40% OFF CODE.This code expires on 31st August 2026To take advantage visit Sharepickers dot com, scroll down and use this code where you see the label, “Have a Coupon”Type inPOD40That’s capital P capital O capital D and the number FOUR ZERO without any spacesYou will get 40% off £249, which means you get membership for £149 and this code is valid for as