At Any Rate

This week our FX strategists discuss the implications of the dovish BoJ meeting for JPY as well as lingering FX intervention risk. We also look ahead to US event risk for the dollar next week with a full data calendar and the FOMC. Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Benjamin Shatil, Economic and Policy Research Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4686012-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker:   Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research Last week, we attended Cesco Week, one of the leading copper events globally, which brings together the most important producers & consumers and industry leaders each year in Santiago, Chile. We encountered nearly universal bullishness on copper prices over the medium-term, though near-term, there was still a sense that the current copper rally may be running ahead of still slack refined market fundamentals which could take some further time to tighten over the coming quarters. Despite the potential for near-term volatility, there was a broader acknowledgement that we are now entering a new upwards trend for copper prices.  Tighter refined copper markets over the course of this year and next look somewhat inevitable, stressing low global above ground stocks. Amidst near-term supply tightening already, progress on filling end-of-decade supply gaps looks nearly non-existent from many major producers and time is now beginning to run very short.   This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680427-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4682555-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:   Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Daniel Lamy, Head of European Credit Strategy Research and Nelson Jantzen, from High Yield, Leveraged Loans and Distressed Leverage Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.   This podcast was recorded on 23 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4664711-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4670934-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666443-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the strength of this tax season and what that tells us about the TGA, the debt ceiling, QT, and the lowest comfortable level of reserves. Speakers Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy  Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy This podcast was recorded on April 19, 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678572-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678829-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan outline our constructive USD view and the implications of the joint statement from Japan/ Korea/ the US this week.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 19 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4676229 -0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Oil shrugged this week’s escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. To some extent, this could be explained by the fact that some of the geopolitical risk premium was already priced in. Since last October we have viewed market reaction to political events in the region to be excessive for two reasons. First, main players in the Middle East have strong incentives to keep the conflict contained given the economic transformation currently planned and implemented in the Gulf region requires sustained absence of conflict. Second, the closure of Hormuz is a low-risk event as Iran will be shooting itself in the foot both economically and politically by irritating its main customer.    Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on April 19, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4674589-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

With timing being the key behind our bullish regional Henry Hub story, the reversal of a preliminary junction granted to Energy Transfer a year ago may provide relief for future LNG demand. Meanwhile, the USDA’s April WASDE was neutral-to-bearish relative to average trade expectations, leaving unanswered questions for South American corn and soybean production, after yet another month of local write-downs.   Speakers Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on April 12, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4670498-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671902-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A hot CPI print following the recent strong jobs print has put ‘high for long’ back in focus, challenging the soft landing narrative. We discuss with Phoebe what these ‘bumps in the road’ mean our views on TIPS, breakevens, and duration generally. As for Gold, Greg dissects the reasons for the recent rally and reviews whether the rate cutting cycle is going to be as bullish for Gold as it was historically.   Speakers: Phoebe White, Head of Inflation Strategy Thomas Salopek, Head of Cross Asset Strategy Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on April 11, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671684-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667440-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671783-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the moves in secured funding rates and Treasury yields in the wake of strong manufacturing and employment data, and preview the risks around March CPI and the April tax date. Speakers Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy This podcast was recorded on April 5, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655558-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4664658-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this episode, Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss some current key themes and topics for Euro area rate markets. They cover the upcoming April ECB meeting, the recent fiscal announcements and noise in France and Italy, views on swap spreads, drivers of Euro volatility and the impact of rising oil prices on inflation markets.   Speakers Francis Diamond, UK Rates & European Inflation Strategy  Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy  Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy    This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666360-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

This week, our FX Strategists Patrick Locke, James Nelligan & Ladislav Jankovic discuss USD & G10 FX trends amid a backdrop of strong US data & higher yields against improving global growth signals, and also break down implications for the dollar from higher oil, weaker CAD data and prospects for CHF depreciation. This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667578-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

At face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia’s decision to cut oil production could push Brent oil price to $100 by September. But there are multiple counter-measures that could act as a suitable rebalancing mechanism. The US can release up to 60 mn bbls of crude from the SPR and demand could buckle. For now, we keep our long-held price forecast unchanged ($90 by May, $85 in 2H24), awaiting further clarity regarding Russia’s actions, but acknowledge that the way to our price projection may be through $100. Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4660256-0 . For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.    

Meera Chandan, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss FX implications from DM central bank superweek and outline expectations ahead of the upcoming BoC/ Riksbank meetings. This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656374-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Francis Diamond discuss the outcome of the FOMC and BoE meetings, and the implications for US and UK rates markets.   Speakers: Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy Francis Diamond, Head of UK and Euro Cash Strategy and Head of Global Inflation Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656360-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4657369-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4657417-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Driven by a surge of financial inflows, copper prices have jumped higher in March, eclipsing $9,100/mt earlier this week for the first time in a year. Copper prices are finally responding to the intensifying supply tightness that has skewed us bullish on the metal since last December. We retain this bullish medium-term bias but now need micro indicators in China to turn around and begin actually signaling a tight fundamental market to sustain upwards price momentum from here.  With refined copper supply looking most at risk in the coming quarter and Chinese demand entering its seasonal peak period as well, we still think a broader move higher towards our bullish year-ahead target of around $10,000/mt is in the offing, even if the road there is somewhat bumpy.   Speakers:     Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4652097-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655420-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta and James Nelligan preview the upcoming Norges and Riksbank meetings and discuss our views in the FX and Rates market. This podcast was recorded on 20 March 2024. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We discuss the behavior and outlook for yen in the aftermath of a historic BoJ meeting.   This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655242-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655046-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.