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The NAVigator, from the Active Investment Company Alliance (AICA), talks all-weather investing and "excellence beyond indexing" through the use of closed-end funds (CEFs) & business-development companies (BDCs). AICA – a new organization that includes a diverse constituency that runs from investors through fund sponsors – aims to help investors & advisors plot a new and different course to financial success, via the tactical use of securities that mix active management within listed & non-listed structures. Subscribe now to get regular updates on everything you need to know to succeed with CEFs & BDCs.
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Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at Aberdeen Investments, says that the continuing war in Iran has put pressure on oil prices, but he expects them to stabilize short-term while the market determines what happens next. If the outlook becomes one where the Straits of Hormuz are closed off to shipments for a longer stretch of time, he says "If things get really bad, you could be talking $175 for a barrel of oil." Gilhooly discusses the investment adage that the first shots of war signal a time to buy, and says that investors likely will see solid opportunities, but that they might want to wait a little longer for more clarity if they didn't jump in with the very first shots. He also discusses how tensions should be good for income-producing investments like closed-end funds.
Ryan MacDonald, Portfolio Manager for the Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund, says that in a world teeming with market worries and broad geopolitical concerns, private real estate is "uniquely boring, in a good way." He says the market has taken its pain over the last three years through interest rate changes and the market cycle, but now values have receded creating a solid entry point. MacDonald, who also serves as chief investment officer at Bluerock, says that "Entry point is the single biggest driver of future value for private real estate returns," and he notes that on an inflation-adjusted basis, the market is now approaching valuation levels "not seen since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis."
The stock market has been beating up business-development companies, with the sell-off largely being blamed on the artificial intelligence boom and the high number of loans that BDCs make to software firms. Behind the theory that software companies will struggle to pay debts as artificial intelligence renders their products less useful and attractive, there are real loans, and John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, digs into the math that is impacting the lenders and BDCs in general. Scott, who also serves as Chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses two BDCs and shows how the headlines could be creating values that make the industry more attractive, not less, for investors who understand and measure the risk.
Robinhood Markets is launching its first closed-end fund, Robinhood Ventures Fund I, with the first IPO the closed-end fund space has seen in about four years and John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, sizes up the prospects for the new issue, which intends to be a concentrated portfolio of private companies. Scott, the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses the role private equities can play in a portfolio, as well as the challenges investors face in sizing up a fund with a net asset value entirely based on the purported market value of shares that don't trade in public markets.
Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive officer at Saratoga Investment Corp., says that increases in default rates are more of a return to normal than a sign of trouble for business-development companies or the economy. While stories like the First Brands bankruptcy and fraud case have market watchers looking for more trouble, the rest of the headlines in the industry are much more routine, which leads Oberbeck to think that recent activity is more a hangover coming from a time of particularly low defaults, rather than a sign of the start of a bad business cycle.
Kyle Brown, Chief Executive Officer at Trinity Capital, gives his outlook for the private credit and lending space, and notes that there could be some challenges for business development companies and private lenders late in the current economic cycle because returns from private credit generally have been declining. That has meant single-digit leveraged returns, Brown says, so "Investors are not happy." That, in turn, has led to redemptions in private funds and falling stock prices. Still, Brown says, that has created some opportunities for lenders and investors who keep digging to find gems; he sees the technology sector and continued capital expenditure spending as being particularly robust in the year ahead.
Nick Robinson, Deputy Head of Global Emerging Market Equities at Aberdeen Investments, says that the artificial intelligence wave that has pushed domestic stock markets to record highs is readily apparent around the world — including in countries that are not necessarily synonymous with technology — and that the capital expenditure wave should continue to power foreign markets if companies can monetize the potential gains created by AI. He also discusses how markets are weathering geopolitical events and why he thinks they will continue to push higher despite nervous headlines.
John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, reviews the key takeaways from his firm's fourth-quarter review of action in the closed-end fund industry, focusing on fund consolidation trends that have occurred in the middle of booming asset growth for the industry, as well as discount levels and whether narrowing discounts set up 2026 for more muted results. Scott, the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, also noted that a number of closed-end fund categories are off to a fast start to the new year, and while areas like international equities and convertible bonds are continuing strong performance from 2025, other areas like managed limited partnership funds and large-cap business-development companies have jumped ahead after struggling in 2025.
Stephen Davis, closed-end fund product specialist at Nuveen, says that while 2025 was a strong year for closed-end fund performance, price returns exceeded net asset value (NAV) gains, reflecting a narrowing of discounts, continuing a trend from 2024. Those narrower discounts will make it harder for that broad trend to continue in 2026, but he noted that municipal bonds and senior loans are two areas that should provide promising opportunities. Davis noted that 2025 saw significant merger and rights offering activity, a trend he expects to continue in the new year.
Kimberly Flynn, President at XA Investments, discussed the just-launched XAI Interval Fund Credit Index, which tracks the performance of non-listed closed-end interval funds and tender offer funds in the alternative-credit space, and how having the benchmark should help investors as they look at adding private credit and other alternatives to their portfolios. Flynn says the new index — which is not currently investable, so it is not the basis for a fund — is a sister to a broad interval fund index the firm introduced last year, both reflecting the growth in interval funds and in advisers' interest in adding them to consumer portfolios.
John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, reviews the forecasts he made a year ago for 2025, grading his wins and losses on everything from inflation levels and Treasury yields to discount levels and the outcome in various sectors of the closed-end fund industry. Scott, the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, also reviews the five funds he identified as buys for 2025 and how they turned out.
John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, climbs his mountain of data to get a great view on the year ahead, and he's forecasting no recession, lower inflation and modest GDP growth for 2026, with less volatility coming from the rate picture but more market tension due to the global macro picture. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, also discusses what he sees happening in the closed-end fund industry, from the growth he expects to see in assets to the activism picture, down to what he foresees in leverage, return of capital and more. Plus, he's got five funds he's expecting big things from in the new year.
Richard Stone, Chief Executive Officer for The Association of Investment Companies (the British equivalent to the Active Investment Company Alliance), discusses differences in the activist investor cultures in the United States and Great Britain, noting that the British model is more about engagement with the board and a collaborative effort to improve the business, while the U.S. model has shifted towards an entrenched fight to make change and capture opportunities. With Saba Capital emerging as the leading activist on both sides of the pond, Stone discusses how he sees activism continuing to change. In addition, he discusses how interval funds are viewed in England, and whether "venture capital trusts" (the country's tax-advantaged alternative to business development companies) could work in private credit markets globally.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that "every time a new Fed chair comes in, they do something dumb," and with Jerome Powell on his way out as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, he expects some chaos that will create opportunities, potentially as soon as the next chairman of the central bank is announced. "The interpretation — and mis-interpretation — of what's going to happen is going to be crazy," Doty says, but that "complete mess" should create opportunity that turns out well for investors who ride it out and who "don't expect logic and reason to rule the day, at least for a quarter or two." Doty also talks about where he is moving money during tax-loss selling season and the changing discount picture as the market has returned to record highs.
Long-time activist investor Phil Goldstein of Bulldog Investors sat down with NAVigator host Chuck Jaffe at the Active Investment Company Alliance Fall Roundtable in New York City on Nov. 19 to discuss the current state of shareholder activism and why there seems to be so much less of it than there was just a few years back. While there have been moves and regulations that have made it harder for activist moves to succeed, Goldstein also says that there has been better fund management, resulting in less opportunity/need for activists to get involved.
John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, looks at tax-loss selling season and whether it has started yet, noting that a few asset classes have largely been able to avoid situations where there will be widespread harvesting this year, while others (most notably business-development companies) may be poised for a lot of tax-driven reshuffling before year's end. Scott, who is the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, also answers some questions on the value of tax-loss harvesting if it means selling a fund you like, and how he recognizes yield traps and spots big discounts that are poor buying opportunities.
The Active Investment Company Alliance held its annual Fall Roundtable in New York City on Nov. 19, and NAVigator host Chuck interviewed Ryan Paylor, Portfolio Manager at Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors, which recently converted a closed-end fund from a focus on companies located in the Caribbean Basin — ticker Symbol CUBA — to one focused on collateralized loan obligations. Paylor explains the thinking behind the move and how shareholders reacted to the fund's drastic makeover.
Consumers have a tradition of going bargain hunting on Black Friday, but The NAVigator has a day-after-Thanksgiving ritual too, looking for discounts on closed-end funds with John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors and The Chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance. For the fourth straight year, he's looking at market bargains in time for the holiday, and this year he is looking at two municipal-bond funds, two business-development companies and two direct offerings that the market has put on sale and that investors might want to consider wrapping up for their portfolios.
In an interview recorded at the Active Investment Company Alliance Fall Round Table in New York City on Wednesday, Nov. 19, David Tepper of Tepper Capital Management talks about the state of the closed-end fund business, ranging from the classic funds he has held for a many years to his concerns about the boom in private credit, the potential for trouble if the economy turns and what he might be looking to invest in if the market turns away from the large-cap tech companies that have been leading the way for the market.
Josh Duitz, Global Head of Income for Aberdeen — Manager of the Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund — talks about where he is finding success in generating elevated income at a time when rate cuts are making it harder for investors to earn easy yields. Duitz discusses international investing and whether the rally overseas can continue in the face of reduced currency impacts, where high-flyers like the Magnificent Seven stocks fit in with his portfolio (or don't), and which sectors he is finding most attractive right now.
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