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Crisis Brief is a new special edition of ISW's Overwatch podcast series intended to provide timely updates on unfolding crises with implications for U.S. national security.
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Iran’s proxy network in Iraq has escalated rocket attacks, stood up at least four new Shi’a militia groups, and diversified its targets and methods of attack. These efforts aim to wear down US forces and eventually compel their withdrawal from Iraq. In this episode of Overwatch, Middle East Security Program Manager Nicholas Heras and Iraq Research Assistant Katherine Lawlor discuss Iran’s ongoing campaign to shape Iraq into a state that serves Iran’s geopolitical interests.
Iran’s proxies are again escalating against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. Kata'ib Hezbollah fired rockets at a U.S. base in Taji, north of Baghdad, on March 11, triggering an immediate U.S. reprisal. Today, another rocket attack targeted the Taji base. In this Overwatch Crisis Brief recorded on March 13, ISW’s Iraq experts Nicholas Heras, Katherine Lawlor, and Brandon Wallace discuss the implications for the U.S.-led coalition’s relationship with Iraqi security forces and the increasing cooperation between Iran’s proxy groups.
The United States killed Iranian IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and several senior proxy militia officials in a Baghdad drone strike on 03 JAN. Soleimani was a designated terrorist and the second most powerful person in Iran. This strike follows an Iranian proxy militia attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, the killing of an American contractor by Iranian proxy militias, and a months-long escalation in Iranian rocket attacks on U.S. interests in Iraq and across the Middle East. Iran experts Nicholas Carl and Kyra Rauschenbach of the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project and Iraq experts Brandon Wallace and Katherine Lawlor of the Institute for the Study of War brief what you need to know to make sense of the coming news cycle.
Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mehdi resigned on November 29 following a renewed outbreak of violence against protesters and the withdrawal of support by Shi'a religious leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Iraq's political elites have scrambled to find a replacement to Mehdi, who was himself a compromise candidate, and have so far failed to achieve consensus on either a new prime minister or any meaningful concessions to the protesters. Meanwhile, Iran's proxies in Iraq continue to attack three groups - protesters, nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and his supporters, and the U.S.-led Coalition - in order to drive political action in Iran's favor. ISW's Iraq experts Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace offer their take on the political stagnation, proxy conflicts, and increased violence they expect to see moving into the new year.
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Turkey's ongoing offensive in Northeastern Syria on November 13th. The meeting occurred as fighting continues in Eastern Syria. ISW Syria expert John Dunford discusses the events in Syria and abroad that shaped the two presidents' conversation and its subsequent outcome.
Protests in Iraq have continued to grow after resuming on October 25th. Iranian proxy leader Hadi al Ameri reversed his position on the ousting of the Iraqi prime minister under the direction the Iranian IRGC Quds Force commander. This direct intervention by Iran signals the potential for a more violent Iranian crackdown against Iraqi protesters. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses three possible trajectories for Iraq's future. *Originally published November 7, 2019.
The deadline to implement the first phase of the Russo-Turkish deal for Northeast Syria passed without significant progress after Kurdish forces refused to withdraw from the border. Meanwhile, a new contingent of U.S. forces deployed to southeast Syria to secure oil fields. U.S. forces also patrolled a Kurdish area, indicating a continued relationship with Kurdish forces. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford explain these details and discuss what to expect next. *Originally published November 1, 2019.
Rumors of an imminent resignation of the Iraqi prime minister emerges after nationalist Shi'a cleric Muqtada al Sadr made a dramatic return to Iraq and joined escalating protests in Najaf. He and Iranian proxy leader Hadi Al Ameri each released statements pledging to hold a no-confidence vote against the prime minister in the Iraqi parliament. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses the political stakes and possibilities. *Originally published October 29, 2019.
Mass protests resumed in Baghdad and across the Shi'a-majority provinces in southern Iraq despite the Iraqi government's attempts to de-escalate through concessions and limited reforms. Protesters torched political offices and media headquarters in multiple provinces, chanting slogans against both the Iraqi government and Iran's proxies in Iraq. One Iranian proxy militia reportedly used live ammunition against protesters. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Iraq expert Samantha Leathley discuss Friday's escalation and what could follow. *Originally published October 25, 2019.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met to coordinate military movements in Northern Syria. The two presidents reached an initial agreement intended to push Kurdish forces away from the Turkey-Syria border region over the coming days. ISW Syria expert John Dunford discusses what is known about the new deal and how it will effect Turkish and Russian actions in Syria moving forward. *Originally published October 23, 2019.
Iraq's government has not addressed the conditions that prompted street protests in early October 2019. Baghdad will also struggle to hold accountable the forces that engaged in a violent crackdown on protesters given Iran's role in Iraq. The stage now appears set for a new phase of unrest. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and ISW Iraq analyst Samantha Leathley discuss the potential for renewed protests this week at a time when some U.S. forces are shifting from Syria to Iraq. *Originally published October 21, 2019.
The U.S. military withdrawal from Syria and subsequent Turkish advances are creating a new opening for Russia and its partners. Russian forces have taken over areas vacated by the U.S. as the Kremlin positions itself to reshape Syria's future. ISW Research analyst Mason Clark joins ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella to discuss the latest Russian maneuvers and how they advance Vladimir Putin's broader ambitions in Syria. *Originally published October 16, 2019.
The situation on the ground is rapidly evolving as the Turkish offensive advances into Syria. ISIS is taking advantage of the conditions of chaos to resurge and threaten to reverse progress made by the Anti-ISIS Coalition. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella, Syria expert John Dunford, and Counterterrorism expert Brandon Wallace discuss how recent developments may threaten U.S. forces as they withdraw and what ISW is watching heading into the week. *Originally published October 15, 2019.
Turkey has initiated a military operation into a part of Northern Syria controlled by Syrian Kurdish-led forces. The operation follows a U.S. decision to withdrawal from the immediate area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - the primary Syria-based U.S. partner in the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). As Turkish forces move across the border and the SDF responds, ISW's Syria expert John Dunford explained the context, key dynamics shaping the battle, and the effects on the counter-ISIS campaign. *Originally published October 9, 2019.
Iran signaled it may send Iranian security forces to Iraq, ostensibly to secure the upcoming Arbae'en pilgrimage. But Iran may alternatively be preparing these Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) to help suppress Iraqi protests. The LEF previously helped the Bashar al Assad regime attempt to suppress the Syrian rebellion as early as 2011. The Iranian Regime has used it more recently to quell dementing protests. The unit may assist Iran's proxies in Iraq to do the same. Nicholas Carl, an Iran expert at the Critical Threats Project, discusses this possibility and its implications with ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella. *Originally published October 8, 2019.
The Iraqi prime minister's concessions to protesters reflects one aspect of the ongoing crisis, but it is only a part of the story unfolding. There remains a fierce and ongoing competition for the future of Iraq. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella is joined by the Critical Threats Project's Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl to discuss the Iraqi government's recent actions, what the information environment tells us about the situation on the ground, and how the Iranian regime is positioning its proxies as it vies for greater control. *Originally published October 7, 2019.
Turkey is about to invade Northeastern Syria with U.S. permission despite previous American security guarantees to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The U.S. has not yet announced a full withdrawal from Syria but U.S. forces pulled back from the border. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford discuss what options the SDF has and how other actors, including ISIS and Iran, are prepared to exploit the possible chaos to follow. *Originally published October 7, 2019.
The crisis in Iraq continues to escalate. Multiple reports of assassinations and other targeted killings of activists and demonstrators reflect an attempt to suppress the protests through intimidation, likely by Iran's proxies. Leading Shi'a political figure Muqtada al Sadr called for the dissolution of the government and a new election in an attempt to oust the sitting Prime Minister, who has failed to address the crisis. A parliament session is reportedly scheduled for October 5th. It remains unclear whether a reshuffle in the political leadership in Baghdad would ameliorate protest demands, however. ISW's Iraq expert Samantha Leathley joins Jennifer Cafarella to discuss developments on the ground and what ISW is watching for next. *Originally published October 4, 2019.
Iraqi protesters have defied a government curfew in Baghdad, triggering renewed clashes with security forces. The death toll is now at 19 with hundreds wounded. The internet remains severed as the Iraqi government tries to disrupt the protest momentum and minimize reports of civilian casualties. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and CTP Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl discuss what has transpired in the last 12 hours and what to watch for next. *Originally published October 2, 2019.
This update addresses the political dynamics that have lead to recent mass protests against the Iraqi government. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella zooms out to discuss how key actors, domestic political competition, and Iranian influence over the last several years has shaped the current crisis. *Originally published October 3, 2019.
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