Thoughts On Money [TOM]

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4ywqFrr Host Blaine Carver talks with Brett Bonecutter and financial planner Matt Gregory about Gregory’s article, “What Could The Election Actually Do To Your Money?” Gregory says election anxiety commonly shows up in planning as questions about taxes, inflation, Social Security, healthcare, investing, and ultimately whether clients will be okay, and that advisors should uncover the “question under the question.” They discuss how fear is amplified by media, and how planners can make concerns actionable by stress testing assumptions (inflation, healthcare, taxes, Social Security benefits, spending) rather than making knee-jerk portfolio changes. The Bahnsen Group currently uses 2.5% long-term inflation and 5.5% healthcare inflation, revisiting assumptions annually. They note markets historically perform well across political outcomes, and that tax planning (including Roth conversions) should consider bracket changes and Medicare impacts. The episode ends with tentative election predictions and a reminder to focus on 20-year plans. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:50 Why This Article 04:54 Questions Under Questions 07:13 Fear and Media Noise 09:32 Inflation Stress Tests 13:59 Do Elections Move Inflation 17:22 Taxes and Roth Moves 23:47 Social Security Reality 29:37 Investing Around Elections 35:38 Should You Change Anything 37:50 Stress Testing Metaphor 40:10 Predictions and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4s5VJwC Trevor Cummings hosts the Thoughts on Money podcast with Brett Bonecutter and Blaine Carver (“Joe Bob”) to explain bond yields and interest rates through a scripted “table read.” They frame interest rates as the price of money, shaped by supply and demand, time, risk, and expectations for inflation and growth. The discussion distinguishes loans from bonds, explains why investors buy Treasuries, and clarifies maturities, the yield curve, and why the 10-year note is a benchmark influencing mortgage pricing via mortgage-backed securities. They note Treasury rates are set by auctions and that the Fed targets the overnight federal funds rate, mainly affecting the short end while markets price longer maturities. They address how rising yields lower existing bond prices, why predicting rate moves is difficult, why recent yield spikes may relate to bond supply (including corporate issuance tied to AI), and how current yields improve forward bond return prospects despite recent declines. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 01:00 Table Read Begins 01:17 Price of Money Basics 03:03 Loans vs Bonds 04:49 Treasuries and Yield Curve 07:10 Who Sets Rates 08:39 Investor Takeaways 10:06 Fade Out and Debrief 10:57 Why This Article 13:46 Why Bonds Move 17:12 Fed vs Market Dynamics 26:40 Bond Portfolio Math 30:16 Opportunities and Levers 33:34 Fed Signals Explained 37:43 Wrap Up and Call to Action Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4AXYRyJ Trevor Cummings hosts the Thought Someday podcast with Brett Bonecutter and Blaine Carver to discuss his blog post, “The Cost of Paying Later,” focusing on the cultural shift toward “buy now, pay later” financing from firms like Affirm and Klarna for everything from small purchases to luxury items. They argue people fixate on monthly payments rather than total cost, making commitments easier and leading to “death by a thousand cuts” as multiple payments and subscriptions accumulate, especially with frictionless tools like Apple Pay. They note interest rates can range from 0% to 30% and question disclosure, delinquency, and why consumers choose these services over credit cards. Trevor emphasizes the importance of counting the full cost and trade-offs, balancing cash flow versus balance sheet, and recognizing how financing and easy credit can distort behavior and reduce flexibility over time. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:17 Buy Now Pay Later Boom 02:56 Monthly Payment Mindset 06:07 Keeping Up and Comfort Creep 09:02 Rates and Disclosure Questions 10:36 Layaway Versus Instant Credit 12:19 Is It Dangerous Socially 16:50 Why Not Use Credit Cards 19:38 Frictionless Spending Traps 20:53 Textbook Math Versus Behavior 24:49 Should Versus Could Afford 30:15 Balance Sheet Versus Cash Flow 37:32 Opportunity Cost and Compounding 39:58 Practical Takeaways and Wrap 41:44 Final Thoughts and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4hpwdik Brett Bonecutter hosts “Thoughts on Money” solo to discuss “Profits: Vice or Virtue?” inspired by David Bahnsen’s book and moral defense of profit amid renewed cultural debate over socialism versus capitalism. He argues free markets are not defensible because greed is useful, but because properly earned profit rewards value creation and serving others. He critiques conservatives for leaning on “greed is good” and notes socialists frame their case as empathy and equity versus capitalist greed, viewing free markets as manipulated and profit as exploitation. Bonecutter concedes profit can come from fraud, coercion, cronyism, or lack of competition, but defines virtuous profit as evidence of transformational value through voluntary exchange (illustrated with toothpaste). He says profit-seeking drives progress, competition and cooperation coexist, profit-and-loss signals resource allocation, profits act as a wealth engine, and this system best expands opportunity and addresses poverty without promising utopia. 00:00 Solo Intro and Theme 01:48 Thesis Profit as Virtue 03:27 Moral Framing of Socialism 05:51 Why Greed Argument Fails 10:12 Socialist View of Profit 15:19 Five Points Overview 15:24 Profit Creates Value 21:00 Progress Through Competition 28:04 Profit and Loss Signals 30:46 Wealth Engine Explained 32:43 Profits and Poverty 34:58 Closing Takeaways Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4hc81Qi Trevor Cummings hosts the Thoughts on Money (TOM) podcast with blog author Blaine Carver discussing why investors underperform market returns due to behavioral mistakes. Carver cites Morningstar data showing a 2016–2025 S&P 500 annual return of 9.9% versus 8.7% for the average dollar in U.S. mutual funds/ETFs, and a Dalbar 30-year study ending 2021 showing equity investors earning 7.13% versus 10.65% for the S&P 500, attributing the gap largely to poor timing decisions and performance chasing. They explain time-weighted versus dollar-weighted returns, then outline four biases: recency bias, prospect theory/loss aversion, herd bias, and self-deception. Carver suggests investors know their tendencies, follow a disciplined philosophy—highlighting dividend growth investing—and avoid interrupting compounding, and argues advisors can help reduce emotional errors and opportunity costs. 00:00 Welcome and Topic Setup 00:30 Defining the Behavior Gap 02:44 Time vs Dollar Returns 05:08 Bias One Recency Chasing 06:22 Heuristics and Randomness 11:22 Narratives Fuel Bubbles 14:06 Bias Two Loss Aversion 19:43 Bias Three Herd Mentality 25:00 Bias Four Self Deception 25:42 Self Deception Explained 26:08 Know Your Conflict Style 27:38 Marriage Mirrors Behavior 28:51 Specialists Beat Ego 30:51 Advisor Trust Framework 32:38 Investor Game Film 34:06 Time Horizon Advantage 36:12 Dividend Growth Discipline 37:48 Hulk Smash Mistakes 40:23 Dividends Over Drawdowns 42:52 Transparency And Report Cards 44:33 Why Hire An Advisor 46:55 Never Interrupt Compounding 47:38 Final Wrap And Call To Action Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com