Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Despite the noise, 2025 has quietly thrown up plenty of opportunities for investors. Anyone switched on enough to play the Resources rebound, the generational gold trade, the small cap surge or even the CBA rally (before things cooled off) has probably done pretty well for themselves this year.  While many investors sat on their hands over AI and bubble fears, or licked their wounds following the Liberation Day correction, others took the chance to act and reaped the benefits.  Fortune favours the bold, or at least those willing to think outside the box. So as we prepare for the clocks to tick over to 2026, what are the big opportunities out there for investors looking to outperform over the next 12 months?  As part of our 2026 Outlook Series, we asked nine leading fund managers to share the biggest investment opportunity they've identified for next year. 

Markets love a good story. And for most of 2025, it’s been the same story everywhere. A handful of mega-cap stocks have driven the majority of equity market returns in the US, and a similar pattern has been evident here in Australia, where blue-chip heavyweights have dominated the spotlight.   In both jurisdictions, hundreds of profitable companies have been ignored, and that’s how overlooked stocks are born. These are not broken businesses, just forgotten ones. Later in the year, investors started to move down the market-cap spectrum - particularly in Australia, where small-caps have caught a bid.  As leadership continues to broaden and fundamentals regain the spotlight, those ignored names can re-rate fast. With 2026 now underway, we asked 10 leading fund managers to look beyond the obvious and share the overlooked stock they believe could surprise on the upside. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 9 December 2025.  

Every year, markets have a habit of humbling consensus. Industries written off as “uninvestable” can quickly turn into the best-performing trades on the board, while last year’s darlings quietly fall out of favour. And 2025 was a textbook example. Few investors began the year expecting gold, defence, critical minerals or uranium to deliver such standout returns – yet all surged as shifting geopolitics, energy security and supply-chain realities reshaped capital flows. Even more surprising was hydrogen’s sudden resurgence, catapulting the long-maligned sector onto the global leaderboard after years in the wilderness. At the same time, traditionally reliable areas like ASX technology and healthcare struggled to gain traction, reminding investors just how quickly market narratives can flip. With 2026 now firmly in sight, the obvious question is: where will the next breakout come from? To find out, we asked 10 experts to look ahead and identify the sector or industry they believe is poised for a breakout year in 2026 – and, crucially, the stocks they think best capture that opportunity. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 9 December 2025.

For most investors, the biggest determinant of long-term outcomes isn’t finding the next multi-bagger – it’s avoiding the handful of stocks that permanently destroy capital.  The data is unambiguous. In his landmark study Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?, Professor Hendrik Bessembinder found that just 4% of listed US stocks accounted for all net wealth creation above Treasury bills since 1926, while the majority failed to outperform cash at all.  For investors, that means the damage done by owning the wrong stocks can outweigh the benefit of trying to pick the next big winner. In other words, losses are concentrated, and so are mistakes. That asymmetry matters even more for sophisticated portfolios, where capital preservation and compounding matter as much as upside capture. Avoiding the wrong stocks can quietly do more for returns than chasing the right ones. With that in mind, we asked ten of Australia’s sharpest investment minds, spanning ASX and global equities, to nominate their stocks to avoid for 2026 and beyond. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 9 December 2025.

In a year as frantic and fluid as 2025, it can be hard to know what is a valuable learning experience and what is just noise. But it goes without saying that eventful times in markets will always throw up the opportunity for some new lessons and some old lessons best relearned.  As part of our 2026 Outlook Series, we asked 10 leading fund managers to share the key lesson they learnt in 2025 and how that's informing their approach going into 2026. From trimming winners too early to working out how to play the big market shifts, these lessons from 2025 should help you become a better investor in the year ahead. These interviews were filmed on 9 December 2025.

Jensen Huang founded Nvidia in 1993. For much of its life, it was a good company, not a great one. A specialist chipmaker, a few near-death moments, and long stretches where the stock went nowhere. Over the past decade, however, Nvidia has become the poster child for modern growth investing. What looks like an overnight success was, in reality, a 20-year build, powered by reinvestment, innovation, and patience. It is now one of the largest companies on the planet, and a reminder that the best growth stories often take far longer to reveal themselves than markets expect. That lesson extends well beyond a single stock. Over the past 15 years, growth has been the dominant equity style.  Since the post-GFC reset, global growth stocks have outperformed value by around four-and-a-half percentage points per year, when they really had no right in doing so. Growth was meant to fail. Instead, it adapted, overcoming inflation shocks, aggressive rate hikes, and repeated predictions of its demise.  The winners of this era were not blue-sky ideas, but businesses that could reinvest capital at scale, defend margins, and compound earnings through wildly different market regimes. The growth decade did not end with cheap money. It evolved. And if the past 15 years have taught us anything, it’s this: great growth stories are rarely obvious at the start. With that in mind, we asked nine of Australia’s sharpest investment minds, spanning ASX and global equities, to nominate their top growth pick for 2026. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 9 December 2025.  

Buy Hold Sell has wrapped up for 2025 and will be back in 2025. Keep your eyes out for some bonus episodes dropping in early January. Thanks for listening!

If 2025 showed investors anything, it’s that the best money wasn’t made by sitting still; it was made by catching the right waves. While broader markets delivered solid returns, the lion's share of profits went to investors willing to back the big themes: uranium, defence stocks, gold miners, Bitcoin, the Nasdaq, and Australian small caps. Get the wave right, and returns arrive fast. But as any surfer knows, timing matters. Not every wave kept rolling, and some themes lost momentum just as quickly as they emerged. So as we head into the New Year, the key question is which of these themes still have legs - and where is the next swell forming? To find out, we sat down with Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial Group and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners to unpack which 2025 themes can continue, and nominate their one hotspot for 2026 and how to play it. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 17 December 2025.

Looking back at 2023, 2024 and 2025, it’s hard not to think: wasn’t it easy to make money? As the table below shows, almost everything went up. With around 95% of asset classes delivering positive returns, avoiding losses wasn’t the challenge - owning enough of the winners was. But periods of easy money don’t last forever. Eventually, the macro backdrop shifts, leadership changes, and returns begin to diverge sharply across assets, as investors saw in years like 2018 and 2022. With that in mind, we invited two market pros - Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial Group and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners - to discuss where investors should be positioning, and where trimming exposure may make sense heading into the new year. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 17 December 2025.

As 2025 winds to a close, it’s only fitting that we take stock of the names that dazzled investors this year, as well as those that landed squarely on the naughty list. Markets delivered no shortage of surprises, with some companies shooting the lights out while others tested even the most patient shareholders. On the “nice” list sit Regis Resources (RRL), Codan (CDA), and Charter Hall (CHC) - three stocks that managed to push through volatility and reward investors handsomely along the way. Meanwhile, the “naughty” list features Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN), WiseTech (WTC), and Bapcor (BAP), each facing its own set of challenges. To make sense of it all, Livewire’s Vishal Teckchandani brings together two trusted voices: Hugh Dive from Atlas Funds Management and Jun Bei Liu of Ten Cap. They break down what went right, what went wrong, and whether any of these names deserve a spot in portfolios heading into 2026. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 3 December 2025.  

“Crazy.” That’s how Jun Bei Liu of TenCap summed up 2025, a year where big themes surged in waves, sector leadership flipped at lightning speed, and investors had to stay sharp through fresh bursts of volatility. Alongside Atlas’s Hugh Dive, we’re looking back at the year that was: Which stocks delivered, which ones fell short, and which great ideas slipped away before investors could act? And the real question: what now? With 2026 around the corner, how should investors set up for success, and which stock calls stand out as the most compelling shots for the year ahead? From key lessons to bold ideas, our guests unpack what mattered in 2025 and where they see opportunity next. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 3 December 2025.

Well, here we are again, staring down the barrel of the year-end. It’s a time for some fun and frivolity, but amongst the cheer, it’s also the perfect time to cast a discerning eye over our portfolios and make some hard decisions about which companies get a guernsey into 2026. Shedding the duds also means hunting for new opportunities and while piling into the top 10 best performers from this year is always tempting, there are probably some equal, if not better, opportunities to be had in the downtrodden. In what has become a tradition at Livewire, Vishal Teckchandani hosts Hugh Dive from Atlas Funds Management and Jun Bei Liu from Ten Cap, to hunt through the bargain bin on the ASX to see if they can find some beaten-down gems. What will they find? As a bonus, Jun Bei and Hugh each nominate a stock they think is set to get going in 2026. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 3 December 2025.

Investing globally can feel overwhelming, but it also opens the door to powerful structural themes that Australian equities often miss. In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Nick Markiewicz from Ellerston Capital and Michael Poulsen from Canopy Investors reveal six global small and mid cap stocks positioned in the slipstream of major shifts including AI driven power demand, digital content monetisation, manufacturing reshoring, rising healthcare procedure volumes and the transformation of Japan’s labour market. From data centre power solutions to hazardous waste leadership and fast-growing HR technology platforms, the pair outline high conviction ideas that tap into multi-year growth opportunities. Please note that this episode was recorded 19 November 2025

US earnings season might be over, but the aftershocks are still rippling through markets. Headline numbers looked strong – S&P 500 EPS growth hit 15%, margins touched 15-year highs – yet beneath that glossy surface lies one of the most divided landscapes in years. In 2025, the market is being pulled in two directions. On one side sits the AI complex, powered by hyperscaler capex that continues to be revised higher. On the other, almost everything tied to the real economy is slowing. Manufacturing is soft. Housing is sluggish. Consumer strength depends entirely on your postcode and pay grade. And in small and mid-caps, earnings beats were met with half the usual upside, while misses were punished with twice the usual downside. Volatility is back, and it’s ferocious. As Michael Poulsen from Canopy Investors puts it, parts of the economy are still waiting for “a bit more clarity” before they invest again – yet beneath the uncertainty, he’s seeing early signs of life in long-neglected sectors like healthcare. Meanwhile, Nick Markiewicz from Ellerston Capital notes that “if you're not in AI, I'm not sure you're anywhere,” even as he quietly eyes high-quality compounders and homebuilders now trading on GFC-era multiples. In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, we break down the winners, the warning signs, and the opportunities emerging from a wildly bifurcated reporting season. Plus, our guests reveal two stocks that absolutely crushed expectations.

Whilst Aussie small caps have been on fire and are outperforming their large-cap peers year to date, it’s not the same story everywhere. In the US, for example, small and mid-caps (SMIDs) are still lagging – such is the dominance of the Magnificent 7. But when everything else is rallying, it can pay to fish where others aren’t. And here’s the kicker: unlike Australia, where there’s a tiny pool of SMIDs – roughly 250 names that meet the $300 million to $10 billion market-cap cut-off – there are around 8,000 globally. That’s a lot of fish. But with more choice comes the need to know where to look and how to separate the bluefin from the carp – because not every SMID is worth catching.   With that in mind, Livewire’s Chris Conway is joined by Michael Poulsen from Canopy Investors and Nick Markiewicz from Ellerston Capital to unpack the factors they look for when hunting global SMIDs, run the ruler over a handful of names, and each share one stock they think has a bright future ahead. Please note that this episode was filmed 19 November 2025

Small caps have long been the hunting ground for investors seeking outsized growth, but they also demand a sharper eye and stronger conviction. Whilst smalls have woken from a long slumber in 2025, beneath the headline names a new generation of companies is quietly building momentum - firms with unique market positions, improving fundamentals, or catalysts that could soon propel them into the spotlight. In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Livewire's Chris Conway is joined by James Nguyen from Tyndall Asset Management and Shaun Weick from Wilson Asset Management. Together, they shine a light on five small-cap hidden gems; businesses that aren’t household names yet, but might be tomorrow. They unpack what makes each one special, the triggers that could unlock their value, and the key risks investors should keep in mind. Whether you’re hunting for the next breakout stock or simply looking to understand what drives performance in this dynamic part of the market, this episode is full of actionable insights from two seasoned small-cap specialists. Please note that this episode was filmed 5 November 2025

If you've been following the story of small caps for a while, you would know that as early as 2024, some investors were talking about a recovery in small caps given the performance gap relative to their larger peers. For a good period of time, that promise went unfulfilled. But good things come to those who wait, and in 2025, small caps have staged a genuine comeback - so much so that they’re now outpacing their large-cap peers year to date. The question now is: can it last? And just as importantly, what could derail the momentum? Livewire's Chris Conway put those questions and more to James Nguyen from Tyndall Asset Management and Shaun Weick from Wilson Asset Management. In this episode, James and Shaun also share which sectors and themes still look compelling in small-cap land, a couple of stocks they're most excited about, and a couple more that are keeping them up at night. Please note that this episode was filmed 5 November 2025

Unless you've been living under a rock, chances are you're aware of the resurgence in small-cap stocks. The ASX Small Ordinaries is up 19% year-to-date, versus just 7% for the ASX 100. But it's not just a rotation away from growth-starved large caps that is seeing smalls catch a bid. The recent reporting season showed that many small caps are in rude health, with strong balance sheets and improved earnings backed by margin expansion, built on a bedrock of innovation and competitive advantage. That's the good news but, of course, not all small caps are created equal. Investors need to be highly selective when considering less mature businesses. Against that backdrop, Livewire's Chris Conway sat down with James Nguyen from Tyndall and Shaun Weick from Wilson Asset Management to understand their most important factors when assessing companies and run the ruler over three of the hottest ASX small caps. For good measure, they each share a name they believe is on the rise. Please note that this episode was filmed 5 November 2025

Over the past few episodes, we’ve galloped through our Spring Racing Carnival series - from the “stayers” built to go the distance, to the “wet-track wonders” that hold their footing when conditions turn tough. And now, as we thunder down the home straight, it’s time for the Photo Finish. In this final instalment, we’re doing things a little differently. Rather than our usual stock-by-stock format, we’ve set up a series of head-to-head matchups - five pairs of closely matched companies, each vying for line honours. Our guests will weigh in on which business they’d back, and why. It’s a chance to see how professional investors think when they’re forced to make the hard calls, where conviction meets comparison, and small details separate a winner from the pack. Joining me to make those calls are Nick Pashias from Antares Equities and Marcus Ryan from Yarra Capital Management.  Please note this episode was filmed on 22 October 2025.    

Winter might be over, but in markets, the clouds can roll in at any time. And when they do, only the sure-footed survive. With the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival in full swing, we’re once again taking inspiration from the track - this time, looking for the “wet-track wonders” of the ASX.  These are the companies that can handle tougher terrain, those with strong balance sheets, reliable earnings, and management teams that know how to keep moving forward when the ground gets heavy. In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Livewire’s Chris Conway is joined by Marcus Ryan from Yarra Capital Management and Nick Pashias from Antares Equities. Together, they’ll explore what defines true resilience in the sharemarket and where investors might find the best footing if conditions deteriorate. Before they dive into the stocks, Chris asks Nick what traits he looks for in businesses that can weather the storm - from fiscal discipline and predictable cash flows to that all-important pricing power. Marcus then weighs in on which sectors tend to thrive when the economic going gets tough. As well as analysing three ASX names, for good measure, the guests each share a stock in their portfolio that they might look at differently if conditions head south.  Please note this episode was filmed on 22 October 2025.