Independent Thinking

The US Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump on his first justification for tariffs, but he says he will push them through by other means. On this week's Independent Thinking podcast, our experts analyse why Trump is wedded to tariffs as an economic and political tool, and what effect they will have on the US and global economies. They also discuss whether tariffs have ended globalization for good even after the Trump era ends. Joining regular host Bronwen Maddox are Creon Butler, director of the Global Economy and Finance programme at Chatham House, and down the line from Washington, Heather Hurlburt, a consulting fellow in our US and North America Programme.   Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell.   Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.   Chatham House's latest: Comment | Trump's tariff strategy is alive and well by Jennifer Lind Video | Roberta Metsola – A new Westphalia to avoid western failure Video | Al Carns – Acting on the SDR: Britain's defence in 2026 at Chatham House's Security and Defence conference

Negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war do not appear to have made significant progress. In the meantime, the focus of US President Donald Trump's 'lighthouse diplomacy' appears to have switched to Iran. Chatham House analysts discuss the state of the talks, and whether Europe will step up to provide the weapons and military support that Ukraine needs. They also examine how the Russia-Ukraine conflict fits into the wider superpower competition between the US, Russia and China. Joining host Bronwen Maddox are Grégoire Roos, director of Chatham House's Europe, Russia and Eurasia programmes; Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum; and Natalie Sabanadze, Senior Research Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme.   This episode comes as we look ahead to two major upcoming Chatham House events: a conversation with General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, marking four years since Russia's full-scale invasion, and our annual Security and Defence conference. Both events are now fully booked for in-person attendance, but audiences will be able to watch General Zaluzhnyi's appearance and some of the defence conference events online. Full details are available on our website: https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/upcoming   Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

In a special edition of Chatham House's Independent Thinking podcast recorded at the Munich Security Conference 2026 over the weekend, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox and Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes, unpack the key issues that emerged from this year's forum. The main speaker, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, adopted a different tone from Vice President JD Vance, who shocked many in the audience last year when he delivered a verbal broadside against Europe at the same conference. But does it signify a shift in the Trump administration's newly assertive stance, or was it the same message in a different wrapping? In a recording session in a side room amid the hustle and flow of the conference, they also discuss innovations in defence technology and drone development, the resilience of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, what level of support Ukraine can expect from Europe, and whether European companies and policymakers will respond effectively in the face of increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers.   Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.    Read our latest: Comment | The West vs the West at the Munich Security Conference Comment | Climate security should be a bigger priority at the Munich Security Conference Comment | What should a more European NATO look like? The US and Europe disagree Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧    

As Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer ploughs through crisis after crisis, his Labour Party faces multiple threats in upcoming local elections. Our Chatham House analysts examine whether having six prime ministers in a decade is a sign that Britain, like some of its neighbours, has more fundamental underlying problems that make it increasingly hard to govern. Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Olivia O'Sullivan, Director of the UK in the World Programme at Chatham House and Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes.   Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts   Read our latest: Comment | The AU summit is an opportunity for decisive action to end the war in Sudan Comment | Why a resurgent Japan is good for Asia Comment | What recent developments in Syria mean for the Kurds Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧

After the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, our analysts discuss where in the Western Hemisphere US President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio may turn their attention to next. Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Laurel Rapp, director of Chatham House's US and North America Programme, and Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America. They dissect the so-called 'Donroe Doctrine', Marco Rubio's project to reform Cuba's regime, Haiti, and why oil is central to the MAGA playbook. Read Dr Sabatini's full research paper 'A roadmap for security and governance reform in Haiti'.   Read our latest: Comment | Haiti's vicious circle: Funding is needed to end the violence. But the violence means funding doesn't come. Event | The new threat? An imperial America News release | Chatham House fellow gives evidence on Venezuela to UK Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee   Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧    Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Ben Bland, head of our Asia-Pacific Programme, and Dr Yu Jie, senior research fellow on China. They discuss the opportunities and risks of closer engagement between the UK and China, and why the opacity of Chinese elite politics makes them an unpredictable security actor. Read our latest: EU leaders echo de Gaulle, saying Europe must depend on no-one. But where should autonomy begin? UK ratification of the Chagos Archipelago treaty will not violate international law The US and Russia's nuclear weapons treaty is set to expire. Here's what's at stake Myanmar 'election' shows the military regime is here to stay. How should the world respond? Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth.  Read the Winter issue of The World Today. Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox joins the Independent Thinking podcast from the World Economic Forum in Davos. In London are guest host David Lubin, a Senior Research Fellow in Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme; and Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes.  They examine the implications of President Trump's speech for Greenland, NATO, Europe, China and others after Trump pulled back from using force in Greenland, but left allies with a loss of trust in US intentions. Our analysts also discuss the impact of the address by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former President of Chatham House, who laid out his alternative vision for middle powers to cooperate when faced with what he called 'a rupture' in the world order.  Read our latest: Trump's Davos speech backed off escalation in Greenland. That will not prevent an EU rush for strategic autonomy Trump, Diego Garcia and the 'Donroe Doctrine' in the Indian Ocean Trump's Greenland tariffs show the UK must prepare for a new era of economic coercion A roadmap for security and governance reform in Haiti Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Winter issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Host Bronwen Maddox is joined in the studio by Laurel Rapp, Director of Chatham House's US and North America Programme; Marc Weller, Director of the International Law Programme and down the line by Juno Berthelsen, of Greenland's opposition Naleraq party, which favours independence.  Read our latest: Who owns Greenland? As Carney visits China to diversify Canada's trade, the 'Donroe Doctrine' further strains US relations US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO's future. But European countries are not helpless Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Winter issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Bronwen Maddox is joined by Marc Weller, Director of Chatham House's International Law Programme; Laurel Rapp, Director of the US and North America Programme; and Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America. They discuss the failure of regional diplomacy that preceded the 3 January 2026 attack by the US on Venezuela, the tentative response of the international community in its aftermath, the domestic impact on American politics, historic precedents like the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and how it is likely to influence Russia and China's actions in their regions. Read our latest: The US capture of President Nicolás Maduro – and attacks on Venezuela – have no justification in international law President Trump's ambition to rebuild Venezuela's oil sector will be challenging, especially if prices continue to fall Trump's Venezuela attack should serve as a warning even to US allies US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO's future. But European countries are not helpless Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Winter issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

In the last Independent Thinking podcast of 2025, host Bronwen Maddox is joined by David Lubin, Senior Research Fellow with Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme; Marion Messmer, Director of the International Security Programme; and Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China in Chatham House's Asia-Pacific Programme. For further analysis read 'The economics of the new Monroe Doctrine' by David Lubin, examining how President Trump's actions seem to indicate the emergence of a hemispheric US foreign policy. Read our latest: Global security continued to unravel in 2025. Crucial tests are coming in 2026 The 'Trump Corollary' in the US security strategy brings a new focus on Latin America – but it is a disordered plan Russia is weakened, but its influence in the Middle East should not be underestimated Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

This is a special edition of Chatham House's Independent Thinking international affairs podcast, recorded at the Doha Forum 2025.  Many of the official and backroom discussions at Qatar's annual gathering of more than 5,000 world leaders, policymakers, dialogue, corporate and humanitarian organizations from 162 countries were dominated by discussions of President Donald Trump's National Security Strategy, which was released on the eve of the forum. At one of the first events in the Doha Forum, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox questioned US Ambassador to NATO Mathew Whitaker about it.  The podcast examines the implications for Europe, Asia, the Middle East and US foreign policy generally of the NSS document, which reinforces the Trump administration's 'America First' strategy, and contains stark language about Europe, talking about its 'economic decline' and 'the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure'. It also says: 'The days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over.'  Joining host Bronwen Maddox in Doha were: Leslie Vinjamuri, President and Chief Executive Officer, Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and Yu Jie, a Senior Research Fellow on China in Chatham House's Asia-Pacific Programme, and Renad Mansour, a Senior Research Fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme.  Produced by Stephen Farrell and John Pollock.

How are Europe and Ukraine reacting after the US and Russia sought to strike their own deal, and Putin warned that Moscow – while not planning for war with Europe – is 'ready right now'. Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes; Natalie Sabanadze, a Senior Research Fellow and former Georgian Ambassador, and Jaroslava Barbieri, Research Fellow with our Ukraine Forum.  Read Chatham House's report 'Tightening the oil-price cap to increase the pressure on Russia' about how the current international sanctions regime is failing, and how to fix it. Read our latest: Zelenskyy's right-hand man has gone. Here's what should happen next Putin's India visit aims to reaffirm New Delhi–Moscow relations – just as Trump applies pressure to downgrade them UK's indecision over Chinese 'mega-embassy' highlights need for a more coherent China policy Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves published her – widely leaked – budget this week. How does it leave her ruling Labour Party positioned in Britain? And what do the calculations look like from overseas, where other countries have adopted different solutions to the problems facing them? For this discussion on Chatham House's international affairs podcast, host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Olivia O'Sullivan, Director of the UK in the World Programme. And, giving an international perspective on UK finances, are Sébastien Maillard, an Associate Fellow in the Europe Programme and James Kynge, a Senior Research Fellow for China and the World in the Asia-Pacific Programme. Read our latest: Trump's 28 point 'peace plan' marks Europe's last chance to stand up for Ukraine China's 'smart authoritarianism' has upended ideas about autocracies' limitations. The West must cooperate to respond Why an African Credit Rating Agency isn't a good idea for the region's borrowers Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

After the North Darfur capital El Fasher fell to the Rapid Support Forces, aid agencies and survivors talk of civilians being massacred in the streets. The international affairs podcast of Chatham House examines the human toll, and the dynamics of a war fuelled by regional powers and their proxies seeking to control Sudan's territory, gold, natural resources, and access to key waterways.  Host Bronwen Maddox, is joined by Ahmed Soliman, a Senior Research Fellow in Chatham House's Africa Programme; Hubert Kinkoh, a Mo Ibrahim Foundation Academy Fellow; Kholood Khair, director of the think tank Confluence Advisory, and Bashair Ahmed, a researcher at the University of Sussex who focuses on migration, human rights, and humanitarian action. Read the Chatham House report Gold and the war in Sudan. It covers how Sudan's main warring parties – the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – were in competition for the country's natural resources, and how the fight to control gold assets has been one of the drivers of the conflict.   Read our latest: Comment: South Africa's G20 presidency demonstrates the challenge of inclusion in a fractious world Comment: Low-cost Chinese AI models forge ahead, even in the US, raising the risks of a US AI bubble Comment: Ukraine's arms deal with France faces major hurdles before it can be realized Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Nearly four years after Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukrainian officials and analysts look at the prospects for a ceasefire, and at the military, economic and human cost that President Vladimir Putin's campaign has inflicted on the country.  They discuss the Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, intended to demoralise the civilian population, and what European allies should do to bolster its defence efforts, and to rebuild the country if there is a ceasefire.  Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Minister of Defence of Ukraine; Daryna Marchak, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture; Olha Aivazovska, Chair of the Board of the Opora Civic Network; Simon Smith, Chair of Chatham House's Ukraine Forum and Dominic Nicholls, Associate Editor of The Telegraph.  The discussion came as Chatham House hosted a conference - 'War in Ukraine: The battleground for the future of Europe'.  Read our latest: Comment | Ukraine's best defence against Putin's energy war is more attacks on Russia's oil refining sector Comment | As the US eases sanctions on Belarus, is it time for the EU to rethink its approach? Comment | Russia and the US put nuclear testing back on the table. Is time running out for arms control? Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York's mayoral race this week – and other electoral successes – energized Democrats in the US and left-wing parties worldwide. The new standard-bearer of the American left is hailed by progressives as a generational shift of leadership – at 34 he will be the first Muslim mayor of New York, and one of its youngest ever.  But he faces opposition from many quarters over his plans to raise taxes on the wealthy. Not least from President Donald Trump, who has threatened to hold back federal funds from the city where he was born.   This week's podcast assesses the significance of the first major elections of Trump's second term, and what it means for the Democratic Party's chances of winning back the House of Representatives in midterm elections next November.  In the US, host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Laurel Rapp, director of the US and North America Programme, and Bruce Stokes, an associate fellow at Chatham House and a former director of global economic attitudes at the Pew Research Center. Joining from London is Stephen Farrell, head of News and Comment, who covered the 2013 New York City mayoral election for The New York Times.  Read our latest: Trump's tariffs face Supreme Court challenge that could have significant consequences for presidential power Has Trump's Asia tour reassured the US's Asian allies? Kenya's conversion of Chinese debt to renminbi reflects economic pragmatism more than strained US ties Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Far-right Dutch leader Geert Wilders suffered a setback on Wednesday's elections, with centrists poised to take back power.   Rob Jetten, 38, leader of the centre-progressive Democrats 66 party, is set to become the Netherlands' youngest leader in modern history after running on the upbeat slogan 'Yes we can'. But the hard right remains influential.   To discuss the outcome, and what it tells us about Europe beyond the Netherlands, guest host Grégoire Roos, Director of Chatham House's Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes, is joined by Sébastien Maillard, a Chatham House Associate Fellow and special advisor to the Jacques Delors Institute. And, joining down the line, is Karien van Gennip, a former Deputy Prime Minister of the Netherlands.  Read our latest: China's leaders' meeting confirms Xi's authority and shows technological self-reliance is now the priority Trump and Xi won't reset the China–US rivalry, so other nations must prepare  China's economic model will continue to alarm its trading partners Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

China's ruling Communist Party leadership met in Beijing to frame the next five-year-plan. Amid a trade war with the United States, they set priorities for economic policy and technology, including how to build artificial intelligence into key sectors of society.   New faces appeared and old ones vanished, with a purge of senior military officials and others as President Xi Jinping sacked some officials he had earlier promoted. As Xi prepares to meet with US President Donald Trump in South Korea, Chatham House senior research fellows Yu Jie and James Kynge join host Bronwen Maddox. Read our latest: The UK must prioritize cybersecurity or be left dangerously exposed Sanae Takaichi sees herself as the successor to Shinzo Abe. But changes in Japan's politics present big challenges Tanzania election: Erosion of democracy will also come at the cost of economic potential Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Beset by early ceasefire disputes between Israel and Hamas, international backers of President Trump's Mideast project must move quickly to elevate it from vague wish list to viable framework. Rapid delivery of aid, reconstruction - and security for Palestinians and Israelis – are essential. But without a political end game, it will founder. Sanam Vakil, Marc Weller and Stephen Farrell join host Bronwen Maddox in this week's podcast from Chatham House. Read our latest: Comment | The US needs a new Iran strategy if Trump's Gaza plan is to endure Comment | India is seeking to reset relations with the Taliban. But can this rapprochement last? Comment | Netanyahu's concepts collapsed, one by one, as Trump piled on pressure: What next for his government? Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell and John Pollock. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

At home the US is mired in domestic dysfunction with a government shutdown now in its second week. But abroad, President Trump has brokered a deal that - although it didn't win a Nobel Peace Prize - could end the two-year Gaza war. Laurel Rapp and Max Yoeli join guest host Christopher Sabatini. They discuss the effects of the government funding crisis and protracted political deadlock on the US economy, international investment, the military and foreign policy. Read our latest: Comment | Egypt is crucial to Trump's Gaza plan – but fears a security vacuum after an Israeli withdrawal Comment | The rise of Reform, the AfD and RN is more than a blip – so what happens if the E3 goes far right? Comment | Attacks on 'drug boats' are pushing the US away from the consensus on the rules of international law Presented by Christopher Sabatini. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Autumn issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.