The President’s Inbox

This episode unpacks what strategy really is, the seven questions every strategist must ask themselves before initiating a military operation, and why war stays so stubbornly unpredictable.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Eliot A. Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics   We Discuss: What strategy can actually accomplish, and whether the outcome of war is ultimately a matter of chance. Why Eliot Cohen adopts a deliberately narrow definition of strategy—and why he has little use for the fashionable term “grand strategy.” The distinction between strategy and planning, and why execution is what separates a strategist from a planner. The seven questions every strategist must ask, from “what else is going on?” to “what is your theory of victory?” Why understanding the adversary—“Who are those guys?”—is a recurring American blind spot, including in the Iran war.  How surprise, groupthink, and the limits of human judgment repeatedly derail even the best-led war efforts. What Carl von Clausewitz meant by describing war as the continuation of politics by other means. Why a classical liberal education may be the best training for judgment in an age of AI.   Mentioned on the Episode: James M. Lindsay, "The 10 Best and 10 Worst U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions," CFR.org Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Princeton University Press Eliot A. Cohen, The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics, Princeton University Press Robert W. Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S.-GVN Performance in Vietnam, RAND Corporation Peter Paret, ed., Makers of Modern Strategy: From Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age, Princeton University Press   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-seven-questions-every-military-strategist-must-ask   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks Xi Jinping’s high-stakes Washington visit, discussions of “constructive stability,” and tensions over Taiwan, AI, and Iran.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guests: Julian Gewirtz, Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs Bonny Lin, Director of the China Power Project and Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)   We Discuss: Why Xi Jinping has chosen this moment for his first visit to Washington in a decade, and what his concept of “constructive strategic stability” would actually require of both sides. What President Trump’s plan to personally greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews signals about Washington’s current view of the relationship. Whether hosting a lavish state visit forty days before the midterms is a political risk for Trump and his party. How Beijing aims to lock in a truce on its own terms, from Taiwan arms sales to the pace of diplomacy. Whether a pending $14 billion arms package and stalled presidential transits are eroding Taiwan’s confidence in U.S. support. What a U.S.-China AI dialogue can and can’t deliver, and why Dario Amodei’s call to “pace the frontier” lands differently in Beijing. How China’s purchases of Iranian oil are shaping Iran’s resilience, and whether Washington’s threats against Chinese banks are credible. What Xi’s recent diplomatic tour—and his skipping the UN General Assembly—reveals about the world order Beijing is building.   Mentioned on the Episode: Dario Amodei, “We Must Pace the Frontier,” darioamodei.com Julian Gewirtz, “Is Trump Really Giving Xi a State Visit 40 Days Before the Midterms?” Paper Tiger “Taiwan Relations Act (H.R. 2479),” U.S. Congress   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/trump-rolls-out-the-red-carpet-for-xi   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the deepening U.S.-Canada trade war, the collapse of a potential deal to end it, and whether decades of economic integration are rupturing.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Rohinton Medhora, Professor of Practice at McGill University and Distinguished Fellow at the Center for International Governance and Innovation (CIGI)   We Discuss: Whether the latest U.S. tariffs mark a genuine “rupture” in the U.S.-Canada relationship or just another rough patch in a partnership that goes back more than a century. How a nine-year arc—from the NAFTA renegotiation to USMCA—led to today’s standoff, and why Ottawa sees the U.S. national security rationale for steel and aluminum tariffs as a betrayal. How a mid-August deal collapsed, and what Canadian negotiators mean by the “ghost in the room.” Why Prime Minister Mark Carney chose to retaliate “elbows up” rather than follow Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s more conciliatory approach. How Canada’s “messy and noisy” federation—from Doug Ford’s Ontario to Alberta’s secessionist stirrings and Quebec’s election—shapes Ottawa’s room to maneuver. Whether energy exports are the “elephant in the room,” and how far Canada could go in using them as leverage. How Ottawa is courting U.S. governors, senators, and public opinion in states that depend on cross-border trade. What the unresolved fight over digital technology means for where the U.S.-Canada relationship heads next.   Mentioned on the Episode:   Ronald Reagan, “Radio Address to the Nation on Free and Fair Trade,” Ronald Reagan Presidential Library   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/elbows-up-how-canada-is-fighting-trumps-tariffs   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks how the September 11 attacks reshaped the U.S. approach to global threats and internal security.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Walter Russell Mead, Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship, Hudson Institute   We Discuss: Why the September 11 attacks were such a pivotal moment in the history of U.S. foreign policy, and how they are understood by those who lived through them in comparison to younger Americans.  How the attacks shattered a post-Cold War sense in the United States that “history had ended,” with the world moving inevitably toward greater freedom and prosperity. Whether the "Global War on Terrorism" reflected the idiosyncrasies of the Bush administration, or something more fundamental about how the United States responds to attacks. How the Bush response to 9/11 compares to Franklin D. Roosevelt's response to Pearl Harbor. Why the United States found it so hard to leave Afghanistan and Iraq, and how mission creep turned those military campaigns into open-ended nation-building projects. How "liberal fundamentalism" shaped an overconfident belief that American values could be easily applied to other, complicated societies. Why Americans tend to treat foreign policy as a solvable problem rather than a set of chronic issues to be managed. The fate of the Jeffersonian impulse in American foreign policy, and what lessons Mead hopes 2028 presidential candidates will take from the legacy of September 11.   Mentioned on the Episode:   Walter Russell Mead, Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World, Knopf   Walter Russell Mead, Power, Terror, Peace, and War: America’s Grand Strategy in a World at Risk, Knopf   Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago, Harper & Row   Walter Russell Mead, “The Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of the Revisionist Powers,” Foreign Affairs   George F. Kennan (“X”), “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” Foreign Affairs   “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (September 2002),” The White House   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/what-the-us-got-wrong-in-the-war-on-terror   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the potential purposes and implications of CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent surprise trip to Moscow.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies, CFR   We Discuss: What is actually known about CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unannounced trip to Moscow, and how the visit became public. Whether Ratcliffe's conspicuous arrival by military aircraft across the Latvian border suggests the publicity was deliberate rather than a failed attempt at secrecy. Competing explanations for the visit's purpose, from warning Russia against escalation to sending a message on Iran. How unusual it is for a CIA director to make such a trip, and how it compares to Bill Burns's 2021 visit to Moscow. How the intended audiences for the visit may include not just the Kremlin but also Russian and European elites, as well as the U.S. Congress as it weighs a new Russia sanctions bill. Whether the trip is part of an effort to relieve domestic political pressure on Donald Trump, who faces demands to get tough on Russia.  How the Trump administration has struggled to reconcile firmness toward Russia with openness to diplomacy, including ambiguity surrounding the Alaska summit and a proposed tripartite summit.   Mentioned on the Episode:   Vladimir Putin, with Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov, First Person: An Astonishingly Frank Self-Portrait by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, PublicAffairs   Barak Ravid, “CIA Director Ratcliffe Floated Trump-Putin-Zelensky Summit During Moscow Visit, Sources Say,” Axios   “Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 (S.1241),” U.S. Congress   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-cia-directors-not-so-secret-trip-to-moscow   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.