Eurodollar University

There are growing concerns - and a growing pile of evidence and reports - indicating the *shadow* banking system is suppressing potential losses for no legitimate reason. Here we examine where they are coming from and what the latest data shows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://event.webinarjam.com/register/30/vpxv1tvg----------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University Memberships: What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method.If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you’re in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we’ll fill in everything that you’ve been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships----------------------------------------------------------------S&P Global Private Credit: The Rising ‘Defaults’https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/resources/private-credit-the-rising-defaultsLincoln Internationalhttps://www.lincolninternational.com/news/the-lincoln-private-market-index-records-another-quarter-of-growth-in-q2/Bloomberg Default Warnings Start to Pile Up in Private Credit Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/default-warnings-start-to-pile-up-in-the-private-credit-markethttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_US----------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://event.webinarjam.com/register/30/vpxv1tvg----------------------------------------------------------------Now that the Federal Reserve is back to cutting rates, we can start looking ahead to how low they might go. Not only that, also how low Treasury yields and the entire curve get. While Economists wrongly rely on bad theories put into econometric models, we have a wealth of good and valid information (once again proving correct) from which we can make some reasonable judgements. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Erahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-erahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

A sad report as Argentina's badly-needed chainsaw is running into a bigger one - the eurodollar. President Milie was forced to admit the market is in panic-mode as the peso plunges in a way that's all-too-familiar for eurodollar watchers. Push comes to shove, the latter simply has the biggest chainsaw and it is using the thing that the world needs to be watching carefully. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Argentina Assets Slide as Milei Summons Cabinet After Defeathttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-08/argentina-bonds-slump-on-milei-s-defeat-in-buenos-aires-voteBloomberg Milei Defies Forecasts So Far as Argentina’s Peso Strengthenshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/milei-defies-forecasts-so-far-as-argentina-s-peso-strengthens-usd-arsAP Argentina President Milei suffers crushing defeat in Buenos Aires provincial electionhttps://apnews.com/article/argentina-election-javier-milei-cristina-fernandez-peronism-fecba6d106eb2c0f2440e9fca298e470Cato Deregulation in Argentina: Milei Takes “Deep Chainsaw” to Bureaucracy and Red Tapehttps://www.cato.org/free-society/spring-2025/deregulation-argentina-milei-takes-deep-chainsaw-bureaucracy-red-tapehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Foreigners continue their epic buying binge in USTs and US$ assets, totally defying the narrative everyone around the world is ditching America. Despite the intent of so many to make this political, there is nothing political about this, purely economics (small "e"). We keep more evidence and data showing what those really are, and foreigners know it only too well. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre**************************************Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly ThemeIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. To sample or sign up straight away, go to:  eurodollaruniversity.substack.com**************************************Bloomberg Foreign Holdings of Treasuries Climb to Record Levelhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/foreign-holdings-of-treasuries-reach-record-even-as-china-sellshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For the first time ever, the Bank of Japan is selling stocks out of its vast portfolio. The announcement shocked the markets though mostly the media. Is this what it seems to be, or does the Japanese government have a trick up its sleeve? A crystal clear answer can be found among Japan's households as this is one of the best examples ever of modern "monetary" policy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------BoJ Statementhttps://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2025/k250919a.pdfBloomberg BOJ Unveils ETF Sales Plan, Keeps Door Open for October Hikehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/boj-keeps-rates-steady-as-ishiba-s-departure-adds-to-uncertaintyBloomberg Long Bonds Are a Buy as Contagion Fears Ease, TS Lombard Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/long-bonds-are-a-buy-as-contagion-fears-ease-ts-lombard-saysMoneyWise Rice prices have skyrocketed in Japan — and farmers warn that ‘everyone who eats’ that disaster could be nearhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/rice-prices-skyrocketed-japan-farmers-172500461.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_USAnother grim stat from US real estate, as plans to build houses slid to the lowest since May 2020. There are more homebuilders cutting prices than at any other time since, yes, 2020. But at the same time, mortgage rates have slid to their lowest level in a year. In other words, the housing market is giving off a definite signal, and it's the same one as mortgage rates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBen Bernanke’s Testimony April 2008https://www.cnbc.com/2008/04/02/text-bernankes-testimony.htmlBloomberg US Homebuilder Sentiment Stays Low Despite Mortgage-Rate Drophttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-16/us-homebuilder-sentiment-stays-low-despite-mortgage-rate-dropHousewire Optimal Blue: Rate-and-term refis soar 70% in Augusthttps://www.housingwire.com/articles/rate-and-term-refinance-optimal-blue-market-advantage-august-2025/Conference Board Leading Economic Indicatorshttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What a massive mess. No clear direction. Dots all over he place. And that's just the start. We've got Canada, too. Replay of FOMC decision livestream as Pringles win again.

China's yield curve is being reshaped in a way that has created confusion across the spectrum. Even policymakers at the PBOC are talking about the need to do something. However, market behavior is consistent with what we're seeing around the rest of the world and how it all relates to China finding a way out of its mess and hitting upon a real recovery. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China Bond Slump Fuels Speculation PBOC Will Resume Debt Buyinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/china-bond-slump-fuels-speculation-pboc-will-resume-debt-buyingReuters Chinese money flows into bonds even as central bank warns of riskshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinese-money-flows-into-bonds-even-central-bank-warns-risks-2024-06-27/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For the first time ever, French bond spreads are higher than those seen in Italy (both compared to Germany). This isn't just about "fiscal consolidation" worries and France's government budget, the real issue behind everything is economic differentials. Those need to be turned around and soon else France risks being the new, well, Italy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------NYT French Government Collapses, Again, Deepening Paralysishttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/world/europe/france-vote-government-collapse.htmlCNBC France’s Macron names loyalist Lecornu as new prime ministerhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/france-macron-names-lecornu-new-prime-minister.htmlCNBC France’s borrowing costs rise after Fitch downgrade — and there could be more bad news aheadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/frances-borrowing-costs-rise-after-fitch-downgrade-.htmlBloomberg French Borrowing Costs Top Italy’s in Historic Market Shifthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/french-borrowing-costs-top-italy-s-in-historic-market-shifthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The oil business is heading for a big bust, putting Texas in the crosshairs. While that's obviously not good for the economy as a whole, energy does tend to be a leading indicators and when the jobs starting being lost in the space in a big way it's a big red flag. Consumers know it, given what was also just reported from them, too. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Since the July payroll report came out, something seems to have snapped out there in the offshore eurodollar world. Two key sources are signaling a turn toward substantial tightening. Here we go over what those signals are, how to read them in context, and what they mean going forward. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------FRBNY Triparty Repohttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/data-hubhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/sniderYesterday's 10-year note auction produced something we've never seen before, and it totally upended everyone's expectations if not more. With the macro climate being what it is, the 10s sale was a "victim" of the increasingly prominent curve reshaping we're seeing everywhere. And "everywhere" absolutely includes the long bond, the 30-year maturity the mainstream has its sights on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Big Banks Nearly Get Shut Out of Treasury 10-Year Auctionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-10/big-banks-nearly-get-shut-out-of-treasury-10-year-auctionBloomberg Trump Isn’t the Only Reason the Price of Money Is Risinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-11/podcast-trump-isn-t-the-only-reason-the-price-of-money-is-risinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_USIt wasn't actually the record downgrade to payrolls that stood out the most. Far more important, the QCEW confirms there is a very good chance a recession began LAST YEAR. Not just the forgot how to grow kind, a full-blown one even mainstream Economists and the NBER will be recognizing. The evidence continues to show we all went from forgot how to hire to remember how to fire. The Fed's fifty next week is all but set.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy ‘is weakening’https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy.htmlBloomberg US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/us-payrolls-estimated-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-marchStanley Fischer The Great Recession: Moving Aheadhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140811a.htmChristopher Waller Let’s Get On with Ithttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

A record downward revision to payrolls adds to the evidence the US labor market is in dire shape while also heading in the wrong direction. In this video, we go over not just those details but also look ahead at the possible financial consequences should conditions continue to deteriorate in the way they appear to be. What else might be triggered by job losses in the real economy? More than a few possibilities. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold keeps soaring and not because of inflation. We know this without any doubt because as copper prices remain stuck, rising bullion against it has crashed the copper-to-gold ratio down to RECORD LOWS. That isn't about expectations for a crash, instead the market is expressing rising probabilities as to the future. One in which the latest data from FRBNY on job finding expectations fits only too well. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com------------------------------------------------------------------------FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectationshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/scehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQThere was one key stat from this week which helps explain the increasingly desperate state of the US labor market, offering background behind the "unexpectedly" weak payroll numbers from Friday. August's estimate was its lowest since...May 2009. Given the connection to employment, it all fits together with so many other signals including record low copper-to-gold. Yep, record low. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQ-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ISM Services August 2025https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/august/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Payrolls were ugly, a big miss for August on top of revisions to June which pushed the monthly change negative. If that wasn't enough, a rising unemployment rate after a crash in full-time employment. Plus, a plunge in Canadian payrolls punctuate the turning point for North American jobs. Rates were down sharply, no surprise. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Deep Dive Analysishttps://eurodollar.university---------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's not what everyone says, watch what they do. Big companies and big banks (JPM, too) are making heavy preparations for sharply lower interest rates. The former, in particular, have basically revived the long-dormant commercial paper market in a clear sign. At the same time, US and global banks are remaking their balance sheets in critical and unambiguous ways. Even some Fed officials are now seeing it, too. R is back to being an ultra-low STAR.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg America Inc. Swaps Decades for Days in Rush to Commercial Paperhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/30-years-try-30-days-america-inc-flocks-to-commercial-paperCNN Be prepared for 7% interest rates, warns Jamie Dimonhttps://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/investing/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-7-percent-interest-rate-recessionFRBNY John Williams All the Stars We Cannot Seehttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250825Bloomberg Won Advances After BOK Governor Defends Currency Interventionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-28/won-gains-after-bok-rhee-s-comments-on-forex-intervention-goalshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dollar Tree says after seeing a major influx of especially middle-income Americans in its stores, it won't be able to raise prices. The latest jobs data leaves absolutely no doubt why that is. According to the turnover stats, the US labor market LOST jobs in June and July.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WSJ Dollar Tree Shares Fall as Tariffs Dampen Near-Term Outlookhttps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-tree-boosts-outlook-as-sales-jump-c48b7461WSJ Dollar General Draws Shoppers Across Income Levels, Raises Outlookhttps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-general-boosts-outlook-after-earnings-rise-95e4bff8https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After trading conspicuously sideways for the past four months, gold has finally broken out of its range. However, at the same time the US dollar exchange value is threatening to do the same - by moving HIGHER. It's a bad combination: rising gold, higher dollar, and falling interest rates. If any doubts remain about what's really happening, the copper-to-gold ratio leaves everyone no doubt.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Why Investors Can’t Seem to Get Enough of Goldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/gold-price-record-why-bullion-is-safe-haven-amid-tariffs-inflationhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU