Eurodollar University

Now it’s Morgan Stanley’s turn. Yesterday it was Cliffwater. Before that BlackRock and Blackstone. Of course Blue Owl. Morgan Stanley’s $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund becomes the latest shadow banking giant to both get hit with massive investor withdrawals and to deny most of them. Cliffwater also decided it was going to do the same. No wonder you keep hearing more and more people make 2008 comparisons – and there’s one more you definitely need keep in mind. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It is beginning to look more and more like a slow-motion shadow bank run. Yet another massive fund hit with largescale withdrawals. Not only that, the liquidity pressure also led to more asset sales. But those aren't even the worst of the day's news: that comes from JP Morgan and it has to do with COLLATERAL.-------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web-------------------------------------Cliffwater’s $33 Billion Private Credit Fund to See 7%-Plus Redemptionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/cliffwater-s-private-credit-fund-said-to-see-7-plus-redemptionsPimco Sees Crisis of ‘Bad Underwriting’ in Private Credithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/pimco-blames-sloppy-underwriting-for-private-credit-reckoningCliffwater in market with $1B private credit secondary salehttps://pitchbook.com/news/articles/cliffwater-in-market-with-1b-private-credit-secondary-saleJPMorgan Restricts Private Credit Lending After Markdownshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/jpmorgan-marks-down-private-credit-portfolios-ft-reportsSomething on Wall Street 'Smells Like' 2008, Says Former Goldman Sachs Chief. Here's What It Is.https://www.investopedia.com/private-credit-stress-smells-like-2008-says-former-goldman-sachs-chief-blankfein-11920345

We’ve been covering the macro housing bust for some time, and while it’s still there another major problem has come up and for the same reasons. Mortgage delinquencies and even foreclosures have come into the conversation, especially in places like Texas. Rates continue to tick lower but no one is buying houses, home price growth has completely stalled, and now more borrowers are falling behind on their loans. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.7% Increase in Februaryhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-increase-in-februaryCities With the Highest Mortgage Delinquency Rateshttps://wallethub.com/edu/cities-mortgage-delinquency-rates/141263VantageScore CreditGauge™ January 2026: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise as Early-Stage Credit Stress Broadens Across Borrowershttps://vantagescore.com/resources/knowledge-center/press_releases/vantagescore-creditgauge-january-2026-mortgage-delinquencies-rise-as-early-stage-credit-stress-broadens-across-borrowersMortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2025https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/02/12/mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2025HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORThttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chaos at the Asian open last night with uncontrolled panic buying sending oil prices up to as high as $120 per barrel. Thankfully, they backed down and actually ended the day down by 8%. Still, that wild ride isn't good, indicating the world is really struggling with the oil challenge. We're already seeing significant fallout across the world, from dollars to stocks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web-------------------------------------Oil Near $120 Sparks ‘Stampede to Sell’ in Stocks and Bondshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-03-09/oil-near-120-sparks-stampede-to-sell-in-stocks-and-bondsBroad agreement in G7 not to release oil reserves just yet, says G7 officialhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/broad-agreement-g7-not-release-oil-reserves-just-yet-says-g7-official-2026-03-09/Oil Market Chaos to Deepen as More Gulf Giants Cut Outputhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-08/oil-market-chaos-set-to-deepen-as-more-gulf-giants-cut-output$100 Oil Shock Set to Strain Asia’s Cash-Strapped Governmentshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/-100-oil-shock-set-to-strain-asia-s-cash-strapped-governmentsJapan’s Nikkei Enters Correction as Oil Spikes, Iran Fears Weighhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-08/japan-equities-set-to-resume-fall-on-escalating-middle-east-woesPrice Caps, Rationing and Stockpiling: Alarm Swells Over Oil Disruptionshttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/business/iran-oil-gas-asia.htmlYardeni Raises Odds of US Market Meltdown to 35% on Iran Warhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/yardeni-raises-odds-of-markets-meltdown-to-35-on-iran-war-riskshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Not one but two negative payrolls. That’s what we got from the latest update on the employment situation, a double dose of flat Beverage amidst a historic week in the oil market and another major escalation in the private credit bust. And all these things go together. The looming oil shock is coming at the worst possible time with employment already in this bad shape. And private credit, well, as I’ve been telling since last summer, negative payrolls would change everything. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chaos in the energy patch sent both prices and spreads exploding. It was the latter - the blowout in spreads - that is now the most concerning for what it says about this growing oil shock. At almost historic levels, just a nickel short of setting a new record, this kind of intensity and upset is alarming. Here's why and what you need to know.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJoin us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web

BlackRock's flagship private credit fund is getting hit with so many withdrawals the company has no choice but to start blocking these requests. It's another major escalation pointing to even more anxiety and maybe some panic in the credit market. The fact this shows up on a day when payrolls went negative yet again and oil has gone nuclear should not be dismissed, either. Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-webBlackRock Private Debt Fund Slumps After Slashing Dividendhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/blackrock-slashes-another-private-loan-value-from-100-to-zeroBlackRock Slashed Private Loan Value From 100 to Zerohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/blackrock-private-debt-fund-slumps-after-slashing-dividendBlackRock limits redemptions at private credit fund as outflows swellhttps://www.ft.com/content/2336fccb-745d-4f3b-8ade-d84f0027e70f

Energy prices renewed their surge higher today. As it stands, WTI is now just shy of $80 per barrel, up 22% in a week. Wholesale gasoline is now above $2.60 per gallon, a 30% rise since last Thursday. These are the biggest short-term energy spikes we’ve seen since 2022. Because of that, we have to start seriously considering various potential paths for this burgeoning oil shock, up to and including a 1990 scenario where conflict in the Middle East sent energy prices skyrocketing and tipped a weak economy here and around the world into full-blown recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

The Swiss National Bank just issued a very rare warning hinting at currency intervention in the franc.  While there is a mini-panic mainly in the mainstream media over oil being inflationary, look instead at what is going on in Switzerland and how it got to be this way. The last few years of consumer prices and interest rates. They are instructive about what we should expect everywhere else – including what happens when the world gets hit with a major oil spike. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------SNB Touts Intervention Threat as Iran Crisis Rattles Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/snb-says-increasingly-prepared-to-intervene-in-fx-marketshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The oil spike has reached the global pain threshold unleashing liquidations and a scramble for liquidity. At the same time, another big development in private credit that is already spilling over into other parts of the marketplace. The dollar is jumping, never a good sign and no shortage of reasons why it is.Eurodollar University Money & Macro AnalysisJoin us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web

The conflict erupting with Iran has already impacted financial markets, though the initial impact has been pretty muted. Most of the effect has fallen on the energy sector and related, no surprise. Oil has surged above $70 per barrel, US benchmark, while wholesale gasoline has soared 17% just since Thursday. Interest rates are up though not in the way you might think. Instead, USTs are signaling something else - something big. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/cy4DikN or code euro50.Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey's latest firm, Block, announced it is laying off as much as 40% of its current workforce. The company also said it would rely on AI moving forward to take up any additional work, sparking renewed fears the technology is about unleash a torrent of unemployment. Joblessness is definitely a major concern, but there is far more to it and the real story of Dorsey and Block. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The credit market's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week finishes off with yet another bankruptcy and more losses for the big Wall Street names. Worse, it's the same thing yet again: fraud and fake collateral. Plus, more bad news among BDCs has shares down. Dealer banks, however, continue to prepare for not only what we're seeing now, but looking ahead beyond it. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro AnalysisJoin us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-webNew Credit Blowup in London Has Wall Street Chasing Billionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/a-new-credit-blowup-in-london-has-wall-street-chasing-billionsMFS Creditors Warn of £930 Million Shortfall From Double Pledgeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/mfs-creditors-warn-of-930-million-shortfall-from-double-pledgesFS KKR Private Credit Fund Plunges to 2020 Low as Bad Loans Bitehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/fs-kkr-private-credit-fund-cuts-dividend-amid-rise-in-bad-loans

Just today over in Europe, two of the continent’s biggest insurance companies put out statements that show this thing has already gotten very serious. At the same time of course, European banks just bought another epic amount of govt bond safety, the second most in any month on record, after telling the ECB they’re highly risk averse and who can blame them with everything that keeps coming out. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Insurers See Themselves Shielded From Private Credit Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/axa-s-buberl-sees-concern-over-private-credit-says-exposure-lowDeutsche Bank Leads EU Lenders’ Exposure to Shadow Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/deutsche-bank-most-exposed-in-europe-to-shadow-banks-ubs-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another day, several more critical development in the credit markets. Loss projections are soaring. A second fund stepped forward acknowledging asset sales (at lower prices). Big (related) shift in rates markets that ties in the Fed, yield curve, and everything else. Here we go over all three; what happened, what it all means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's Free Guide (video) to interpreting market signals. Taken from the EDU membership, it will help you learn fundamentals necessary to deciphering and decoding market information in a useful manner, unlike everything you get from mainstream sources. https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home------------------------------------------------------Private Credit Fears Deepen With UBS Warning of 15% Defaultshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/ubs-now-sees-private-credit-defaults-reaching-15-in-worst-caseBoaz Weinstein Warns ‘Wheels Coming Off’ Private Credit Fundshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/boaz-weinstein-warns-wheels-coming-off-private-credit-fundsPrivate Credit Fund Is Selling $477 Million of Assets at 94% Value as Industry Worries Continuehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/new-mountain-bdc-is-selling-477-million-of-assets-at-94-value

Now it’s Jamie Dimon's turn, JP Morgan’s highly visible CEO is the latest to make the 2008 comparison. Following up last year’s cockroach quip this time saying a lot of people in the financial industry have done dumb things. But here’s the thing, markets all over the world are starting to price it. The worry showing up in safe havens is maybe this really is happening - right now. From Canadian bonds to Swiss francs, Japan, China and yes Treasuries.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's Free Guide (video) to interpreting market signals. Taken from the EDU membership, it will help you learn fundamentals necessary to deciphering and decoding market information in a useful manner, unlike everything you get from mainstream sources. https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home------------------------------------------------------Jamie Dimon says AI euphoria, record stocks and banks doing ‘dumb things’ could lead to another financial crisishttps://www.cnn.com/2026/02/24/economy/jamie-dimon-warningThe Viral Citrini Substack Post That Has Sparked New AI Worries on Wall Streethttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-tariffs-02-23-2026/card/the-citrini-substack-selloff-70cWx0scioiLradyuTRaYen Slides After Report on Takaichi Caution Over Rate Hikeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/yen-extends-decline-after-report-on-takaichi-s-rate-hike-viewhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In the wake of Blue Owl’s shocking announcement last week basically trapping retail investors in a private credit fund they don’t want to be in, signs of fallout from it are trickling in. To begin with, private continues to sell off, Blue Owl especially. But it’s not just private credit, we’re seeing stress in other corners of the risky credit markets, too, which has a number of prominent analysts and observers wondering if maybe we are seeing too many signs that look too much like 2007.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Walmart has been one of the few to benefit from the difficult economy the past few years. It’s gotten to the point where even high income earners have become regular Walmart shoppers. But here’s the thing, this week when forecasting earnings for the year ahead, now even Walmart is a bit concerned over the possible further negative consequences of what it’s CFO called a “hiring recession.”Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre--------------------------------------------------------------------------This is the kinds of material we've been covering - at length and in depth - at Eurodollar University in our Deep Dive Analysis and memberships. It's the background, the core concepts, the unique insight that allows us to not just stay on top of everything, but actually understanding what's going on and why to then anticipate roughly where the markets, the economy, the entire world is heading. EDU's Memberships and Subscriptions. Go from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------Walmart Cites Worrying Economic Indicators in Cautious Forecasthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-19/walmart-cites-worrying-economic-indicators-in-cautious-forecastFood Companies Sink as Executives Warn of Consumer Stresshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-17/general-mills-warns-of-slumping-sales-on-weak-consumer-sentimenthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

While Blue Owl’s blowup exploded the private credit mess back into the mainstream with yesterday’s first confirmation of Stage 2, there had been some building pressures in the monetary system leading up to it. Including a seemingly out of nowhere surge in borrowing from the Fed’s repo facility on Tuesday, a whopping $30 billion spike. And that’s not even the biggest part of this. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Credit Crisis Stage 2 has been observed. Stage 1 is when money flows out of a bubble but is roughly still balanced meaning some uncomfortable fund managers but no big consequences like forced selling. Stage 2 is when that balance unbalances leading to bigger problems like forced selling. Today, we got confirmation of forced selling for the first time...and a LOT more. --------------------------------------------------------------------------This is the kinds of material we've been covering - at length and in depth - at Eurodollar University in our Deep Dive Analysis and memberships. It's the background, the core concepts, the unique insight that allows us to not just stay on top of everything, but actually understanding what's going on and why to then anticipate roughly where the markets, the economy, the entire world is heading. EDU's Memberships and Subscriptions. Go from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------Blue Owl Halts Redemptions on Private Credit Retail Fundhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-18/blue-owl-loan-sale-raises-1-4-billion-for-investor-payoutsBlue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investorshttps://www.ft.com/content/b2f299f6-2a82-4a43-bcbf-86cac3937550Blue Owl BDC Allows 17% Redemptions as Investors Storm Exithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-07/blue-owl-bdc-allows-for-17-redemptions-as-investors-storm-exit