IFS Zooms In: The Economy

Rachel Reeves is once again facing tough choices on tax and spending. After promising no further tax rises last autumn, the Chancellor could now see a sizeable downgrade to the borrowing outlook - enough to wipe out the limited ‘headroom’ she built into her fiscal plans last spring. To stick to her ‘iron-clad’ rules, Reeves may now need a sizeable fiscal consolidation through tax rises, spending cuts, or both.Helen talks to IFS economists Carl Emmerson and Ben Zaranko about why we’re back here again, what’s really driving the UK’s fiscal challenges, and what options the Chancellor has to get the public finances back on track. They discuss whether Reeves can stick to her fiscal rules, what role productivity and growth forecasts play, and how the government could avoid fiscal 'ground hog' day again.🎟️ Plus, we share details of our upcoming live recording at the British Library on 4th November, part of the ESRC Festival of Social Science.This episode is part of the 2025 Green Budget, our annual report exploring the Chancellor’s options.📘 Read more: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/green-budget-2025-full-report🎫 Sign up for our live podcast: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-zooms-live-how-could-chancellor-raise-more-tax💡 Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The two-child limit stops most families on Universal Credit from claiming support for a third or later child — worth about £3,500 a year per child. Introduced in 2017, it’s now at the centre of a political debate, with the Chancellor under pressure to scrap or reform it in the November Budget.Helen talks to IFS economists Tom Waters and Christine Farquharson about why the policy was introduced, how it’s affected families and child poverty, and what the options are for changing or removing it.🎟️ Plus, we share details of our upcoming live recording at the British Library on 4th November, part of the ESRC Festival of Social Science. Sign up here: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-zooms-live-how-could-chancellor-raise-more-taxBecome a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

--> Sign up to our live podcast in London on 4th November: http://eepurl.com/jonGY-/From child benefit to winter fuel payments, debates over who really deserves support run through the history of the UK’s welfare state. In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we ask whether benefits should be universal, means-tested or contributory — and why the UK's benefits system has become one of the most means-tested in the developed world.Helen is joined by Nicholas Timmins (Institute for Government) and Tom Waters (IFS) to explore Beveridge’s original vision, the rise of means-testing and whether ideas like Universal Basic Income could work.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK has promised to raise defence spending to levels not seen since the 1980s. That means tens of billions more pounds each year, with big implications for the armed forces, the economy, and the public finances.In this episode, Helen speaks to Matthew Savill (RUSI) and Max Warner (IFS) about what defence spending actually pays for, how it has changed over time, and what the government’s new commitments could mean for growth and future military capabilities.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, we turn the tables and put your questions to the experts.From childcare and early years, to schools, apprenticeships, and family life — listeners sent in brilliant questions on the challenges facing children and young people today.Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson and guests Carey Oppenheim, Sam Freedman, Philip Augar, and Anne Longfield to discuss:- Should mothers be supported to stay at home rather than return to work?- Has YouTube made teaching harder for schools?- How can we encourage more firms to offer apprenticeships and sponsorships?- What are the consequences of declining physical activity and play?👉 Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for more evidence-based discussions from IFS Zooms In.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nearly a third of children in the UK live in relative poverty, and rising numbers face material deprivation. The government’s Opportunity Mission pledges that every child should grow up in a safe, loving home and that families should be able to afford the essentials — but how close are we to that goal?In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson (IFS) and Baroness Anne Longfield (Centre for Young Lives; former Children’s Commissioner for England) to explore:- How family structures are changing and what that means for children- The impact of child poverty and financial insecurity- Why children’s social care is under growing pressure- What early intervention could do to improve outcomes👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for the final Q+A episode, where we put your questions to the experts.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What happens after GCSEs, and how well does England’s education system support young people as they move into adulthood?The government’s Opportunity Mission sets out to “build skills for opportunity and growth,” aiming to give every young person a pathway that’s right for them. In practice, that means navigating a system divided between academic routes, like A levels and university, and technical or vocational routes, often delivered through further education colleges.In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson (Associate Director, IFS) and Sir Philip Augar (Chair of the government’s 2019 review of post-18 education and funding) to explore the strengths and challenges of post-16 education in England. They discuss GCSE attainment, the divide between higher and further education, funding pressures, and what a skills system fit for the future might look like.📩 We want your questions for our final Q&A episode! Send them – voice notes welcome – to podcasts@ifs.org.uk.🎧 Subscribe for the full Are the kids ok? mini-series: just search IFS Zooms In in your podcast app.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are England’s school-aged children thriving – or are too many being left behind?The government’s Opportunity Mission promises to end the link between a child’s background and their future. But with rising absences, a growing mental health crisis, and a SEND system under strain, how close are we to that goal?In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson (Associate Director, IFS) and Sam Freedman (Institute for Government, Ark Schools) to explore:What’s driving improvements in average attainmentWhy so many children are still struggling to keep upThe challenges in special educational needs and disabilities (SEND)How COVID has shaped education, attendance, and well-beingWhat reforms could ensure every child has the chance to succeed📩 We want your questions for our final Q&A episode! Send them – voice notes welcome – to podcast@ifs.org.uk or comment on the episode.🎧 Subscribe for the full Are the Kids OK? mini-series: just search IFS Zooms In in your podcast app.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are England’s youngest children getting the best possible start? Or are too many beginning school already behind?One of the government’s five ‘missions’ is to break down barriers to opportunity by tackling inequalities in early childhood. Its ‘Best Start in Life’ strategy aims for 75% of children to reach a ‘good level of development’ by age five - but with only 68% meeting that bar today, how ambitious is that goal, and what will it take to get there?In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson (Associate Director, IFS) and Carey Oppenheim (Nuffield Foundation) to discuss:Why the early years matter for long-term outcomesThe role of childcare, parenting and home environmentWhat the evidence says works to close development gapsHow government policy can (and can’t) deliver change📩 We want your questions for our final Q&A episode! Send them – voice notes welcome – to podcasts@ifs.org.uk or comment on the episode.🎧 Subscribe for the full Are the Kids OK? mini-series: just search IFS Zooms In in your podcast app.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is the UK heading for a fiscal crisis? Or can policymakers still steer the public finances back to a sustainable path?The Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report warns that, without action, UK government debt could climb above 270% of GDP by the 2070s - driven by rising borrowing, an ageing population, and the fiscal impacts of climate change.In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies) is joined by Richard Hughes (Chair, OBR) and Ben Zaranko (Associate Director, IFS) to explore the forces shaping the long-term outlook for the public finances, the 50 risks highlighted by the OBR, and what can be done now to avoid a crisis later.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Has Keir Starmer’s Labour government really brought in a “new way of doing government”? Or are its five missions more rhetoric than reality?To mark the one-year anniversary of Labour’s 2024 general election victory, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Institute for Government held a joint event exploring the government’s approach to governing – and whether its decisions, trade-offs and spending priorities reflect a genuinely mission-driven approach.In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we bring you the recording of that event, hosted by Hannah White (Director, Institute for Government), with panelists Helen Miller (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies), Stephen Bush (Columnist, Financial Times) and Gemma Tetlow (Chief Economist, Institute for Government).Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we’re zooming out to ask: what are the biggest economic challenges facing the UK in the years ahead?As Paul Johnson hosts his final episode before stepping down as IFS director, he’s joined by incoming director Helen Miller to reflect on the country’s fiscal outlook, the importance of economic growth, and the pressures of an ageing population.With rising demands on public services, debates over tax policy, and uncertainty around fiscal rules, how should policymakers navigate the road ahead? What choices will the government face to deliver sustainable growth?Paul and Helen discuss these big-picture questions - and what the coming years might hold.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we’re asking whether people in the UK will be able to afford a decent standard of living in retirement.While the foundations of the system—like the state pension and automatic enrolment—are strong, there are growing concerns. Rising state pension ages, the unpredictability of the ‘triple lock’, low private saving rates, and the complexity of managing pension wealth in later life all pose challenges for future retirees.So, what changes are needed to improve outcomes? What’s the right balance between state support and private saving? And how can pensions be made easier to navigate?Paul Johnson is joined by IFS Deputy Director Carl Emmerson and Senior Research Economist Laurence O’Brien to discuss the findings of the IFS pensions review.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we’re looking back at one of the most ambitious policies ever introduced for young children in England – Sure Start.  Launched by the Labour government in 1999, Sure Start aimed to give every child the best start in life by bringing together early education, childcare, health services, and parental support under one roof. At its peak, more than 3,000 centres were operating across the country. But since 2010, the programme has been scaled back, with funding cut by around two-thirds.  So, what difference did Sure Start really make? How was it implemented? And why does it still shape today’s debates around early years services? Paul Johnson is joined by IFS Associate Director Christine Farquharson and former Education Secretary Ed Balls to explore the legacy and lessons of Sure Start.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Delays in the Crown Court are at record highs, despite more funding and longer court hours. So what’s really causing the growing backlog of serious criminal cases in England and Wales?In this episode, Paul Johnson is joined by Ben Zaranko (IFS) and Cassia Rowland (Institute for Government) to explore why court productivity may have slowed, what the consequences are for victims and defendants, and whether more money alone can fix the problem.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, we unpack the government's 2025 Spending Review with analysis from experts at the IFS. Paul is joined by Helen Miller and Ben Zaranko to discuss what the Chancellor’s plans mean for public services, government investment, and the broader economic outlook. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rising tariffs, deepening tensions between the US and China, and a growing wave of protectionism—are we witnessing the unravelling of globalisation as we know it?In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Paul is joined by Professor Meredith Crowley (University of Cambridge) to explore the shifting landscape of global trade. Together, they unpack why trade barriers are rising, how trade wars are reshaping international relationships, and what this means for the UK and the global economy.This episode builds on Meredith’s 2025 IFS Annual Lecture. You can watch the full talk here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPIATYktrRM&t=1sSubscribe for new episodes each month and support our work by becoming a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's been two months since the government first announced its plans to enact the largest welfare reforms for a generation, aiming 'to help sick and disabled people who can and have the potential to work into jobs’. Since then, there has been considerable debate about the consequences of these reforms. But why does the government want to implement reforms in the first place? How does the current system work? And what could the impact be for those receiving these benefits?In this episode, Helen is joined by Tom Waters, Associate Director at IFS, and David Finch, Assistant Director at the Health Foundation, to unpack the government’s proposals and explore what they mean for the future of health-related benefits.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, we’re looking at corporation tax, which was introduced 60 years ago. Across the decades there have been no shortage of predictions that corporate tax revenues will decline, and yet the tax is forecast to raise record amounts in the coming years. To pick all of this apart, and to see how Donald Trump and tariffs play into the story, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by Amanda Tickel, Head of Tax & Trade Policy for Deloitte UK and Helen Miller, who is Deputy Director at The IFS and leads on our tax work. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, we look at the Spring Statement. What were the decisions and trade-offs made by Chancellor Reeves? To pick this apart, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by IFS Associate Directors Ben Zaranko and Tom Waters.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.