Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

334 Episodes

Reverse

EU Bonds Going Into Global Indices

2024-05-3110:27

Could mean less demand for traditional EZ sovereign debt, especially as France risks a downgrade from S&P.

Who’s Best For The Economy - Labour or Conservatives?

2024-05-2811:27

Also: credit spreads are tight and stable. It was quiet - too quiet…. And CMBS takes its first big hit since the GFC.

Bank Of England To Skip A June Rate Cut

2024-05-2410:26

And it’s not just because of July’s General Election - service sector inflation is too strong. 💪

Doctor Copper Makes A Record High

2024-05-2009:02

Does that mean global growth is reaccelerating?

Equity Yields Are Way Below Credit Yields. Does That Make Sense?

2024-05-1512:11

And Biden puts 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.

US Economic Surprises Rolling Over?

2024-05-1309:07

Aggregate US stats are now disappointing- although the rest of the world is doing OK.

Greenspan, ‘Atlas Shrugged’, & 2001 A Space Odyssey

2024-05-0810:59

Also: Swedish rate cut, and no more excess savings left in America.

US Employment Weakens, Bonds Rally

2024-05-0308:59

2 year US Treasury bond yields drop from 5% to 4.75% in 2 days.

Why Economics Needs To Be Sexier

2024-05-0110:52

And H5N1 (Bird Flu) starts to get attention in financial markets. Gulp.

Gold vs Real Yields

2024-04-2911:20

Also: yen intervention at last? And US immigration at 3 million per year.

US Growth Slows Sharply in Q1, But Bonds Don’t Like PCE Inflation. 5% 2 Year Treasury Yields.

2024-04-2610:49

And Japanese inflation goes the other way, with a downside shock.

The Tortured Bond Investors Department

2024-04-2210:21

Ben Bernanke v the Bank of England.

UJWOB Season 13: Bond Markets Now More Pessimistic Than The Fed On Rate Cuts

2024-04-1911:32

And: Skyscraper - I Love You.

India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance

2024-03-2716:11

And RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.

Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function?

2024-03-2509:10

Looser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS’.

Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan.

2024-03-2212:18

And I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).

Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations.

2024-03-2008:19

Also: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.

The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan 🇯🇵

2024-03-1811:47

The BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot’ at this week’s FOMC.

Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile?

2024-03-1410:07

And in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!

The ‘Right Tail Risk’ Is Fading

2024-03-1110:59

The latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market’s view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.

#box-pro-ellipsis-171718505032346{-webkit-line-clamp:2;}Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds