Claim OwnershipThe HC Commodities Podcast
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For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global
Each day, around the world, we have fascinating one-on-one conversations with our connections in the commodities sector. Our collaborators are uniquely informed, creative and inspirational in their fields. We want to provide our community a seat alongside us, listening in to these conversations in that special way podcasting provides as we tackle topical and people related issues with the leaders and leading minds in our sector. Visit www.hcgroup.global more information on us and our services.
To connect with our host Paul Chapman, you can find him at www.linkedin.com/in/paulchapmanhc/
Each day, around the world, we have fascinating one-on-one conversations with our connections in the commodities sector. Our collaborators are uniquely informed, creative and inspirational in their fields. We want to provide our community a seat alongside us, listening in to these conversations in that special way podcasting provides as we tackle topical and people related issues with the leaders and leading minds in our sector. Visit www.hcgroup.global more information on us and our services.
To connect with our host Paul Chapman, you can find him at www.linkedin.com/in/paulchapmanhc/
318 Episodes
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Returning today to discuss the latest developments from Israel & US's war with Iran is Nick Kumleben, Director at Greenmantle, the geopolitical risk advisory firm. What are the commodities markets telling us about duration? What are the incentive structures in place? How are traders faring in this period of extraordinary volatility? Is the US Treasury trading and how rumor and innuendo are driving that volatility? What would mines in the strait mean? Would boots on the ground actually lower prices? Why are the equity markets so sanguine? could this, plus a smoldering private credit fund concern, lead us quickly to the global financial crisis?
Today, we return to US domestic energy supply and private equity. The vibrancy of private capital markets launched the shale revolution and is now unlocking key bottlenecks in infrastructure as the US looks to meet the world’s demand for LNG and domestic AI. Where is shale production today? Are rumors of its demise overstated? Where is demand headed, particularly for natural gas? And how is private equity faring more broadly in a world of higher interest rates and other macro-economic headwinds? And what are the opportunities within energy and its infrastructure? Our guest is Jason Downie, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Tailwater Capital, a private equity firm with over 6 billion in capital and a core focus on energy infrastructure.
Nick Kumleben, Director of the Geopolitical Risk Consultancy founded by Niall Ferguson, Greenmantle, rejoins us to discuss the latest events in Middle East. What are the short, medium and long-term consequences of Israel and the US's joint attack on global trade and commodities. What are some non-linear effects and why ultimately duration is key.
1Today, we discuss how volatility and battery energy storage systems are reshaping clean energy and repairing power markets. What does the domination of clean power do to markets? What are the consequences both for power purchase agreements, battery storage and traders? What are the nuances in different regulatory regimes? How is Europe diverging from the US, and what has happened to the green premium? Our guest to discuss all of this and more is Luca Pedretti, CEO and founder of Pexapark, a pricing intelligence firm for clean energy.
Today, we review energy supply and demand and some of the key sentiments coming out of International Energy Week, not only about where both those curves are headed, but also key associated risks to each. Are our assumptions correct about energy demand in the world of AI? Are our assumptions correct around development curves, especially in the Global South? Is there a hydrocarbon glut out there? And what about the long term? All this comes to us from Claudio Galimberti, Chief Economist at Rystad Energy, and their recently published House View. Rystad is an energy consulting and market analytics firm with over 40 offices around the world and headquartered in Oslo.
The House View is available for download here. https://www.rystadenergy.com/house-view-report
AI is already changing commodity trading operating models. And unlocking adjacent technologies such as digital assets and DeFI? That itself is changing the competitive landscape and attracting new participants from outside the sector. Where is that investment going? And how profound is this change going to be? And how quickly is it going to be upon us? Our guest is Eren Zekioglu. Eren has spent a career at hedge funds and at trading houses and at the intersection of trading, operations and technology, including at Glencore and Gunvor.
Food, fuel, geopolitics, great power competition and trade - Soybeans sit at the heart of it all. What are the big macro trends with the commodity? How has trade and geopolitics impacted it? How has new drugs like GLPs impacted it? And what is the outlook? Joining us once again is Walter Cronin, President and Co-Founder of White River Nutrition, a US soy processing company based in Nebraska, which alongside meal and soybean oil produces high -quality soy ingredients.
Today, we discuss the importance of energy, what the growing demand for energy means, and how hard it can be to deliver that energy. To demonstrate that, we are using Texas as a microcosm. Texas produces the greatest amount of energy in the US. Its mix of energy spans renewables, nuclear, natural gas, coal, and yet its citizens pay some of the highest prices in the Southern States. At the same time, it's ground zero for hyper-scalers and is the epicenter of fracking yielding epochal volumes of hydrocarbon. To discuss all this and more is one of the leading lights in the Texas energy sector, Mike Howard, Founder and CEO of Howard Energy Partners, the largest privately owned mid-streamer in the US. Beyond his business ventures, Mike is a key advocate for energy's role in society and the importance of getting it right, in technology, in physics, in legislation and in investment. www.hcgroup.globalwww.hyperionsearch.com
Gold, copper and silver have gone parabolic. The dollar is falling. And yet, hydrocarbons remain at an inflation adjusted all-time lows. Is the world being complacent due to the narrative of the oil glut, food glut, and natural gas glut. However, as our guest Jeff Currie says "if you have to scrape the data for evidence of a glut, perhaps there isn't one" Are we headed for a great repricing? Are we on the precipice of inflation and macro-economic turmoil. As tech companies plow their free cash flow into assets, will the investors return to hydrocarbons?
https://interactive.hcgroup.global/annual-review-2025-26/full-view.html
What drives global natural gas prices more: power politics or supply and demand? In this episode, we discuss the geo-politicization of natural gas and the challenge that presents to traders and investors alike. Why was 2025 such a difficult year for traders? And what are the most consequential stories in natural gas for 2026? H Returning to the show is Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Global Research Scholar at the Center for Global Energy Policy.
What is the future of commodity trading? Is volatility here to stay and thus the profit pools available continue to grow? What will the market structure look like in 10 years and who will be the privileged few that have built, or are building, commodity trading platforms to be able to capture that future? What will that future look like? Who will participate and which category of participant will have the greatest market share? And what will the teams and skill sets and people look like participating in that world? Our guest is Roland Rechsteiner, partner at McKinsey and the global head of their commodity trading and risk practice.
Emergency Pod: Nick Kumleben of Greenmantle, the geopolitical risk consultancy headed by Niall Ferguson, joins us to discuss the events in Venezuela, the 'Donroe' Doctrine and what it means for commodities. Is Venezuela an oil story or something else? Is the Donroe Doctrine a structured, intelligible set of principles or just a catchy phrase coined by a New York tabloid ? Intelligible or not, what does it mean for adversaries, allies (Denmark and Greenland?) and the rest of Latin America. Commodities once again sit at the heart of global power politics and it's through that lens we investigate. And what in turn does it mean for commodity markets themselves... can they withstand such unpredictability and government interventions.
Today, we are talking coffee, cocoa and sugar. And in the case of coffee and cocoa, the absolute wild ride they had in 2025.Record prices and extreme volatility. Was it all just a story of tariffs? Or is there something more fundamental going on? Our guest is Kona Haque. Head of Research for ED&F Man, one of the world's largest soft commodity traders that has recently been acquired by Hartree Partners
For a special episode we have the recording of a webinar, David Tannenbaum, the Director of Deep Blue Intelligence, and Carmella O’Hanlon from Blank Rome, discuss the US Coast Guard’s seizure of the Skipper, a Dark Fleet vessel, the legal basis underpinning it, and how the administration can enact a “blockade” of Venezuelan oil. They also discuss examples of typologies and red flags relating to Venezuela’s Dark Fleet, a what comes next. Please note: This taping occurred prior to the administration’s seizure of the Centuries and Bella 1, two other Dark Fleet tankers, on December 20th and 21st respectively.https://www.polestarglobal.com/deep-blue-intelligence/
As we come toward the end of the year, what is the global macro-economic picture. What have been the key themes in 2025 and how have they manifested in energy and commodity markets? And what can we divine about 2026? Are we in for stagflation? Boring commodity markets or is this the calm before the storm….? Our guest is David Fyfe, Chief Economist of Argus, the independent energy & commodity price reporting agency and intelligence firm.
As we begin to wrap up the year, we return to the crude markets. What has been oil’s journey in the latter half of 2025? What has all this meant for trader performances after a challenging first half? What is the outlook for 2026 in prices and volatility? Our guest is Homayoun Falakshahi. He leads crude analytics at Kpler, the data and analytics firm for the commodity markets.
In this episode we return to Singapore and commodity trading in Asia. Is Singapore still a must -have hub as part of a global commodity footprint? What are the key commodities traded there? How do those markets differ from Europe and North America? How has the broader Asia-Pacific region fared over the last decade? And what are some of the key challenges, both market and cultural to doing there? And what might the future hold? Our guest is Ian Lawson, who's had a multi -decade career in trading and origination, including heading those functions in Singapore for the likes of BP and Mercuria and is now a senior advisor at Baringa, the management consultancy.
Today, in time for the US Thanksgiving, we discuss wine. From rare Burgundies to commodity wine that is shipped in containers and blended. What is wine? How is it made? What is the market structure and how has that changed with internationalization, changing tastes and climate change. And why is English wine ascendant? Our guest is Nick Brewer, former COO of Noble Group and ECTP and now founder and owner of Oastbrook Winery (where you can stock up for Christmas here https://oastbrook.com/online-shop/).
Today, we are talking agricultural markets and the case for investing in agricultural commodities, particularly in ETFS. And why that case is enhanced in the volatile world of today and the perhaps much more volatile world of the future. Our guest is Jake Hanley, Managing Director at Teucrium, a US -based ETF issuer with a specialisation in agricultural commodities.
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Thanks, I'm a big fan of your podcasts. Good luck from Iran