The Alpha Horizon

Resilienza dell'Unione Europea, inaspettato ottimismo, riapertura della Cina e il ruolo della guerra nelle relazioni internazionali. Questi alcuni dei punti chiave che sono emersi al World Economic Forum 2023 a Davos.Ascolta l'intervento di Davide Serra (Founder e CEO, Algebris Investments)

Some of the key takeaways from the World Economic Forum 2023 in Davos: The resilience of the European Union, unexpected optimism, China's reopening, hawkish central banks and the role of war in international relations. Listen to Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments)

Latest updates and open issues in the most recent European debate.Is Europe more united today than divided? What are the implications of this pandemic for European integration? Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum comments on why this Covid-19 crisis will be the one that either makes or breaks Europe for real.

How the European Union prepares to tackle the new economic crisis.ESM, Recovery fund, EU bonds – all you know and all you need to know. In this podcast, Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum, provides a clear commentary on these high debated EU measures.

How the Italian economy has been hit by Covid-19 (and how it could recover).The first case of COVID-19 domestic transmission was reported in Italy on February 21st. Since then, the Italian government has implemented an increasingly stricter set of measures aimed at reducing the speed of contagion. Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum, analyses the Italian scenario and summarises the estimates and views she further explores with her team in the latest Algebris Policy & Research Forum’s paper “COVID-19 IN ITALY. An early estimate of the impact on the economy”.

Why the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 differs from any past wars, recessions and financial crisis.We have often heard “We are at war with the virus”.In this podcast, Silvia Merler, Head of Research Algebris Policy & Research Forum, explains why the Covid-19 pandemic can not be associated with wars or crises as we usually intend them, while sharing possible recipes to tackle this new global crisis.

Bond and equity markets hit an air pocket in September 2022 as central bankers got serious about raising interest rates to tackle inflation. Both markets are now down around 20% YTD, with the S&P 500 down 25%. So: what is the global situation now? Listen in to Simon Peters (Investments Strategist) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development)

Until the end of 2021, macroeconomic volatility seemed a thing of the past. Secular stagnation would keep inflation low forever, paving the way for indefinite financial repression. Fiscal discipline was abandoned en masse, as central banks would buy bonds at any price. Unfunded fiscal expansions became the norm, leading to large deficits that didn’t revert.The developed world accumulated imbalances, and markets did not react. Currency and interest rates instability was a concern of just a few underdeveloped countries.2022 came as a sudden wake-up call. Global inflation jumped from 2% last year to 10% today, burning years of easy money in the bat of an eyelid. Developed markets had to re-learn how to cope with market discipline. Central banks had to re-learn how to be inflation watchdogs. Loose policies are now punished with higher rates and currency crashes. Bond vigilantes are back, and policy-makers need to get used to it once again.

When fortunes are lost, fortunes can be made. Timing can make all the difference between the two. June marked an important month in the ongoing bear market, as by month-end many “buy boxes” had been ticked, at least in credit markets. Russia reduced gas flows, inflation increased further, and central banks were not budging on growth. All that could go wrong has gone wrong, and fear has taken over markets. When the overriding emotion is panic, it is important to understand that there will also be opportunities. Listen in to Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development), Tao Pan (Head of AI and Big Data) Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research) discuss the key market risks for the next 12 months and what opportunities are arising for investors.

The longer the party, the worse the hangover. The old adage certainly applies to 2022. The Fed’s balance sheet is 3x larger than it was in 2019, and easy money turned into all-time high household wealth. Couple that with the largest fiscal push since WWII and the worst supply shock since 1973, and something has to give. That something is inflation, and with it, markets. Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development), Tao Pan (Head of AI and Big Data) Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research) discuss the key market risks for the next 12 months and what opportunities are arising for investors.

Wars are symptoms of broader trends. WWI marked the end of the globalization started with the industrial revolution, and WWII the beginning of a new era of global integration. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is no exception. Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development), Tao Pan (Head of AI and Big Data) and Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) discuss what the longer-term developments might be, how concerned should investors be about inflation and recession and how they can approach portfolio construction.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine raises important questions about whether or not financial and economic sanctions can work as intended. The scenario around Europe's ability to significantly reduce or remove its reliance on Russian gas should also be considered. Silvia Merler (Head of ESG and Policy Research) and Gabriele Foà (Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) talk to Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development) about the evolving situation in the latest episode of The Alpha Horizon

Recent developments on the geopolitical front have created increased uncertainty and volatility. Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development, and Simon Peters, Investment Strategist, discuss how the environment for risk assets has changed and what investors and asset allocators are doing.

Inflation is creating significant volatility and uncertainty. Simon Peters (Investment Strategist) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development) discuss what investors should be aware of in the current environment and how best to avoid the negative effects of inflation on investors’ portfolios.

Pandemic-related restrictions, extended valuations, inflation expectations, energy prices as well as developments in China and emerging markets: Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development, and Alberto Gallo, Head of Global credit strategies, discuss these and other factors in the context of what investors should be aware of for 2022.

Economic theory tells us that persistent deficits fuel inflation. Does this rule also apply to our biocapacity deficit, defined as the debt we accumulate with the environment and the planet? We explore this topic in a podcast episode hosted by Douglas Branson, Head of Business Development at Algebris Investments, with contributions from Silvia Merler, Head of ESG & Policy Research, and Gabriele Foà, Co-Portfolio Manager for the Algebris Global Credit Opportunities strategy.

With equity markets up strongly for the year, investors are grappling with extended valuations along with a number of other challenges such as inflation, the risk of economic growth disappointment, the possibility of further negative Covid-19 developments & geopolitics. Are there any areas of the equity market that investors can be positive, or even excited about? Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development) & Mark Conrad (Portfolio Manager, Global Financial Equities) discuss this and related matters in the context of the short, medium & long-term opportunities of investing in financial equities.

After a period of relative calm, investors are faced with a number of considerations; inflation, reduction in monetary stimulus, developments in China and still-extended risk asset prices. How concerned should investors be at the moment? And how does the current environment impact portfolio construction? Douglas Branson (head of business development) and Alberto Gallo (head of global credit strategies) discuss these and other factors in the context of what investors should be thinking about for the rest of the year.

Parlare di azionario pensando ad Algebris fa subito pensare alla specialità storica della società, il settore finanziario. In realtà, c'è molto di più - una expertise consolidata nel mondo dell'azionario italiano, grazie a un team di valore che sta ottenendo performance sempre più interessanti. Scopri di più in questo podcast con Alex Lasagna e Simone Ragazzi.

Nell'attuale contesto di mercato, gli occhi sono puntati sulle prossime mosse delle banche centrali e sull'andamento di alcune variabili macro-economiche fondamentali come l'inflazione. Ne parliamo con @Alberto Gallo e @Sebastiano Pirro nella seconda giornata di Salone del Risparmio: quali sono le migliori strategie da mettere in campo dal punto di vista del credito? Opportunità, rischi e aspettative dai due gestori Algebris in questo podcast