RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know:We run through five things we’re thinking about regarding recent developments in the Middle East from a stock market perspective.Then, we wrap up with a few things we’re watching in terms of general stats to help us know when the recent risk off mood in markets may have played out.

The big things you need to know:First, the stock market is still experiencing a growth scare, in our view, where it is attempting to stabilize. We see more downside if recession is priced in.Second, we review how the process of resetting EPS expectations has begun, and run though key themes from the early reporters and companies that have presented at conferences since the Rose Garden. Our overarching takeaway from our reading is that recession is not yet a foregone conclusion but also that US equities are not out of the woods.Third, we run through our latest thoughts on the Growth trade, which has been outperforming again, and note that it is not a clear-cut call.

The big things you need to know: First, we review our stance on Small Caps. We had a little more love for them coming into Valentine’s Day weekend due to better fundamentals, but still see challenges that raise the bar for further outperformance (less appealing positioning and valuations, plus continued linkage to evolving views on the Fed). Second, other things that jump out include more evidence of a tough reporting season, the slide in sentiment on the AAII survey which is not signaling oversold conditions yet, and thoughts on why we’re not intrigued with the Tech sector yet from a generalist perspective. Programming note: The podcast will be on break next week and resume later this month.

The big things you need to know:First, we run through our thoughts on last week’s choppy price action in the S&P 500 and reiterate our 7,750 12-month-forward S&P 500 price target.Second, we update the stats we’re tracking for 4Q25 reporting season, which generally bounced back in our latest update but remain weaker than what we’ve seen in past reporting seasons.

The big things you need to know:First, reporting season stats have come in “slightly squishy” in our view, suggesting to us that the choppy price action in the S&P 500 of late has been about more than geopolitical concerns.Second, what we read in earnings call transcripts this past week continues to suggest that the macro backdrop is mixed, though we are not seeing any indications of major problems.Third, the thing that jumped out the most to us in our other updates was the slight downtick in optimism on the stock market outlook in the latest Conference Board consumer confidence survey.

The big things you need to know:First, the various earnings stats we track point to a sleepy start to reporting season, suggesting to us that geopolitics hasn’t been the only thing contributing to the US equity market’s recent gyrations. These stats also highlight how the mega cap growth trade has seen its dominance on the earnings front erode in some ways, helping fuel the rotation trade to Value and Small Caps.Second, our review of this past week’s earnings call commentary suggests that views of the macro have been mixed, with geopolitical concerns and consumer pressures noted, but tariffs described as manageable.Third, things that jump out from our other updates include the rise in the Russell 2000’s P/Es which are approaching 2024 highs

The big things you need to know:First, our thoughts on earnings heading into 4Q25 reporting season – questions we think need answering and stats we’re watching.Second, other updates include our thoughts on implications in house views on the Fed for our own US equity market outlook, why we think last week’s economic data releases support the strong start to the year in US equities, why we think Small Cap performance is at an important crossroads vs. Large Cap, and how recent trends in funds flows capture the complex crosscurrents in place for US equities today.

The big things you need to know: First, after updating our models for end of year, we are reiterating our 7,750 12-month S&P 500 price target, noting that the signal from our sentiment model deteriorated since our last update in early December while the signal from our GDP model strengthened. Second, a few things that jumped out in our other updates included the recent divergence in the size and style trades, the S&P 500’s inability to recapture last summer’s peak on the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions, and the latest results of the Duke CFO survey where optimism picked up on one’s own company and the broader economy, accompanied by an optimistic view on the productivity benefits coming from AI.

The big things you need to know:First, we are upgrading S&P 500 Health Care to overweight from market weight.Second, we are upgrading S&P 500 Communication Services to overweight from market weight.Third, our other S&P 500 recommendations are unchanged. We remain overweight Financials and Materials, underweight Consumer Discretionary, and market weight all other sectors. Among our market weights, we have a preference for sectors that look attractively valued on our quant analysis (Consumer Staples, Energy, REITs) over those that look expensive (Utilities, Tech, and Industrials) which have been the early beneficiaries of the AI trade.We also close with a quick thought on the biggest macro takeaways from our 4Q25 global analyst outlook survey.

The big things you need to know:First, several things that US equity markets have been linked to (breadth, bitcoin, private market fears, Fed cut expectations, consumer sentiment) have gotten better in recent updates.Second, a few signals from our year-ahead outlook analysis have shifted over the past week.Third, there have been a few interesting twists and turns in positioning since Thanksgiving week in terms of sectors and factors.

The big things you need to know:First, our 12-month-forward price target for the S&P 500 is 7,750, approximately the median and average of five different models that we use, which focus on sentiment, valuation, the appeal of stocks relative to bonds, the economic outlook, and monetary policy.Second, some of the key headwinds / downside risks and tailwinds / upside risks we’re monitoring include shifts in expectations for the economic backdrop, renewed interest in geographical diversification, and the midterm elections.Third, tactically (near term) we are leaning into the rotation in leadership within the US equity market from Growth to Value and the mega cap Growth trade to the rest of the market, but caution that a shift in earnings dynamics is still needed for this transition to have significant duration.Fourth, we have gotten more comfortable adding to Small Caps but see risk that recent outperformance ends up being short-lived once again unless the underlying economic backdrop / overall economic conditions heat up significantly.

The big things you need to know:First, with the S&P 500 having finally entered what we consider to be tier 1 / garden-variety-pullback territory on Thursday, we review what we’re watching to help us gauge if / when the pullback has run its course.Second, with old leadership within US equities under pressure, we review which trades are working best right now (or might be starting to work) among the data sets we track regularly (Small Caps – at least on Friday and Value, sectors with valuation appeal, and safer factors).Third, we review what we learned from the consumer companies that reported over the past week (companies highlight a mixed macro backdrop, ongoing and intense consumer challenges, ample inventories, their ability to manage through tariffs, and more specific AI use case examples).

The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment staged a partial comeback last week as the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500 moved up again slightly vs. the prior week but remained below its August high.Second, we run through the latest big picture takeaways from S&P 500 earnings calls.Third, other things on our mind include our work the valuation profile of high earnings quality stocks within Small Cap and how we’re thinking about the government shutdown.

The big things you need to know:First, the percent of S&P 500 companies beating consensus EPS forecasts remains well above 2Q25 levels despite slipping a little last week. Meanwhile, the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions improved slightly but remains well below the high of the last reporting season.Second, macro commentary in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls remained mixed and varied by sector, with the strongest tone coming out of Tech and Health Care and the weakest tone coming from Consumer.Third, we noticed more tricks than treats as we ran through our latest updates over Halloween weekend, and run through some of the charts that are spooking us the most on the broader market right now.

The big things you need to know:First, 3Q25 reporting season has gotten off to a strong start on beat rates for the major indices, but we are continuing to see deterioration in the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the biggest market cap names in those indices, and the rest of both indices when their top weights are excluded – something we continue to see as a challenge for performance if it persists.Second, we run through the main macro takeaways we found in our review of last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls. The tone on the overall macro, consumer and tariffs came across as mixed, with a number of companies expressing optimism about improvements / stabilization underway or potentially coming into view.Third, other things that jump out in our updates this week include a new study we’ve published on the relationship between ROEs and P/Es in the major Small, Mid and Large Cap indices.

The big things you need to know: First, solid commentary from the S&P 500 Financials that reported last week helped get 3Q25 reporting season off to a good start, though it was overshadowed by private credit concerns. Second, we reviewed stock market performance in early 2023 around the regional banking crisis as a starting point for thinking about risks to the broader US equity market. Third, other things that jump out include further deterioration in earnings revisions trends for the major indices and stalling sentiment.

The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment has been fading for the broader US equity market and is at a critical juncture for the biggest market cap names and Tech sector within the S&P 500.Second, macro signals were mixed from the S&P 500 companies that reported over the past few weeks.Third, our thoughts on Friday’s weakness in the S&P 500.

The big things you need to know:First, across all industries and regions, our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months.Second, at the global sector level our analysts have the most positive performance outlooks for REITs, Materials and Financials.Third, our analysts were slightly less optimistic on forward performance for Europe/UK than other regions.Fourth, our analysts generally had mixed views of the policy backdrop.Fifth, when we look at some of our macro indicators, Canada has been the bright spot in terms of performance YTD and over the past month.

The big things you need to know:First, many of the US equity investors we met with last week were frustrated and wary.Second, other things that jump out in our work include a speech by the USTR to the financial community in NYC last week, the recent fade in the broadening trade and Small Cap leadership, the continued easing in earnings sentiment, and expectations around the shutdown’s duration in betting markets.

The big things you need to know:First, we review what clients were most interested in talking about on our trip to the UK last week, which included differences between US and UK investor sentiment, valuations, geographical funds flows, and sectors.Second, we recap the macro tidbits we picked up from last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls (where the auto-related names had a negative tone), our takeaways from the Duke CFO survey that came out last week (optimism about their own companies moved up slightly), and what we learned from our review of how stocks have traded around government shutdowns in the past.