Claim OwnershipFactSet Evening Market Recap
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StreetAccount U.S. Evening Market Recap is FactSet's daily podcast aiming to capture the most material market moving news. With a target time of ~5 minutes, this is an ideal listen for those looking to stay connected to the most important themes driving the U.S. economy & corporations.
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US equities ended higher Monday, just off best levels, in a mostly uneventful day of trading. The market gave up some strength in the later afternoon after the US Treasury released Q2 borrowing estimates that were marginally higher than the January estimate. Another big earnings week is ahead with 175 S&P 500 companies reporting this week.
US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P breaking a streak of three straight weekly declines and the Nasdaq up after four weeks down. Corporate earnings were a big part of the week's narrative, with investors taking in reports from 158 S&P constituents--including several highly anticipated megacap tech firms. April flash PMIs came in broadly below consensus, reflecting an overall reduction in orders for the first time in six months and companies scaling back employment for the first time in nearly four years.
US equities ended lower Thursday, just off best levels as market regained some sharp early-morning losses. The market shook off some of the overhang from disappointing tech earnings and stagflation worries sparked by this morning's economic data. The first read for Q1 GDP came in below consensus at a 1.6% SAAR, with the release noting increased consumer spending, but weaker private inventory investment.
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, little changed after a strong start to week, with the Dow Jones down 11 bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 2bps and 10bps respectively. March headline and core durable goods orders beat though February revised down across the board. Today's $70B auction of five-year notes tailed after yesterday's strong two-year note auction. Visa was helped by accelerating US volumes.
US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. Momentum, growth, long duration, small-caps, and lower quality were the big factor beneficiaries. Bounce continued today with help from lower rates/weaker dollar in the wake of softer flash PMI data. Some better earnings takeaways, particularly from several of the higher-profile names also helping.
US equities ended higher Monday, off best levels. Market bounce seems to be gaining traction amid talks that recent selloff is more technical than fundamental. While macro is quiet, micro has very busy with approximately 40% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report this week.
US equities ended mostly lower this week as the market struggled to shake off more hawkish repricing of Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical volatility in the Middle East. Recent Fedspeak supplied ongoing support for higher-for-longer rate narrative with Powell noting this week recent data has shown lack of further progress on inflation. Beyond more hawkish Fed commentary and volatile geopolitics, some other bearish narratives from this week included a big retail sales beat, flagging AI tailwinds as NVDA and SOX are both in corrections, stretched systematic long positioning, and spiking volatility with the VIX at six-month highs.
US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. For the second straight day, the market's bounce attempt ran out of gas, though not much behind today's weakness, with rates the easiest excuse as the 2Y is back near year to date highs. The April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index notably improved month over month, hitting its highest level since April 2022, while employment remained in contraction.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 12bps, 58bps, and 115bps respectively. Today's $13B 20Y auction stronger than expected after last week's string of weak auctions. Latest Fed Beige Book said economy expanded slightly, while price increases were little changed since late February, but consumer spending reports were mixed. Reports Biden will propose a big hike in tariffs on China steel and aluminum.
US equities finished mostly lower in up-and-down Tuesday trading. S&P ended down for a third-straight session with equal-weight S&P a notable laggard to the official index. Tone continued to be driven by hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations alongside solid economic data and sticky inflation. Another busy day of Fedspeak with Powell noting recent data shows lack of further progress on inflation.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels. Some post-bell strength began reversing early in the session, and stocks came under pressure for much of the afternoon. March retail sales beat, while ex-autos and fuel and control group sales also ahead.
US equities were lower as the S&P 500 finished down for a second-straight week, while the Nasdaq capped off a third-straight weekly decline, and its fifth in the past six weeks. The biggest story of the week revolved around inflation data. Several pieces of the bullish arguments remain intact, particularly early earnings season takeaways that suggest a firmer macro backdrop and strong early beat rates.
US equities ended mostly higher in Thursday trading, just off best levels, after shaking off early-morning weakness. In-line core PPI print provided some relief following a third straight hotter core CPI reading that drove a meaningful – and further – hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations. Renewed momentum and growth outperformance is the other big story, with some likely help from the recent flurry of AI headlines and upbeat sell-side research.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, though off worst levels that followed this morning's CPI report, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 109bps, 95bps, and 84bps respectively. Risk off on hotter CPI prints, with both headline and core CPI increasing 0.40% m/m in March, ahead of expectations. Today's 10Y auction weaker than expected, following yesterday's sale of 3-year notes that also tailed. Crude hit session highs after report US and allies believe an Iran missile strike on Israel is imminent.
US equities ended mostly higher in Tuesday trading, losing early morning gains around midday before recovering some into the close. The market is in waiting mode for several potential catalysts later this week, particularly the March CPI on Wednesday. NFIB small business optimism declined to its lowest level in March since December 2012, marking the 27th consecutive month below the 50-year average, with inflation cited as biggest problem.
US equities ended narrowly mixed in Monday's trading session with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq hovering around unchanged though small caps outperformed. The NY Fed one-year inflation expectations were unchanged for third-straight month, though increased at the 3Y horizon. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee commented today that recent jobs data confirms that the economy is strong, and noted late last week that he sees continued high inflation in housing services as the biggest danger to the inflation picture.
Major US equity indices were down for the week, though helped by a solid post-NFP gain on Friday. The week's big theme was the notable backup in Treasury yields driven by some firmer economic data (particularly a strong March jobs report and a hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading). It was also another week overflowing with Fedspeak, again centered on an appearance by Chair Powell and again doing little to shift the broad narrative of a possible start to rate cuts at the June FOMC meeting.
US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, carrying some strength through midday before reversing in the afternoon. The market reverted to a risk-off atmosphere this afternoon, with some blame going to increasing Middle East tensions. Weekly initial claims rose faster than consensus, and the prior week’s was revised up, while continuing claims came in lighter than forecast.
US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, ending off best levels after some late-session volatility, with the Dow Jones closing down 11bps, while the S&P and Nasdaq closed +11bps and 23bps respectively. , ISM services printed at 51.4, below consensus 52.7. New-orders component pulled back and prices paid hit lowest level since March 2020. ADP private payrolls were up 184K in March, outstripping the 150K consensus, with continued strength in leisure/hospitality. Paramount was up on a report about exclusive deal talks with Skydance.
US equities closed down in Tuesday trading, remaining fairly rangebound for much of the session and ending not far from worst levels. Rate backup remains the big story, with the blame largely gone to the firmer ISM manufacturing print yesterday, though there is also some focus on supply, higher commodities prices, and deficit concerns. February’s JOLTS job openings was down slightly month over month but in line with consensus.
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