Power Problems

Emma Ashford, Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses her book First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World, forthcoming from Yale University Press. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dartmouth College's Daryl Press and George Washington University's Nicholas Anderson discuss their modeling of an outbreak of war on the Korean Peninsula, assess the balance of power between the North and South, and explore the implications for the US military alliance with South Korea.Show NotesNicolas Anderson, Daryl Press, “Lost Seoul: Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent,” Texas National Security Review Vol 8 Issue 3, Summer 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rosemary Kelanic, Director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, discusses the Israel-Iran war, U.S. involvement, whether regime change is the objective, and the risks of escalation. Show NotesRosemary Kelanic, “A U.S. War With Iran Would Be a Catastrophe ,” New York Times, June 14, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Samuel Seitz, a fellow at MIT’s Security Studies Program, explores so-called “madman behavior” in international politics and whether it’s effective in gaining leverage in international confrontations. He explains why problems of signaling, credibility, and reassurance tend to make madman tactics ineffective and he discusses examples from the Cold War to Trump’s first and second administrations. Show NotesSamuel Seitz, Caitlin Talmadge, “The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work,” The Washington Quarterly 43:3, 2020.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Christopher Chivvis and Lauren Morganbesser of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discuss the foreign policy attitudes of Gen Z, the relationship between public opinion and foreign policy, and the increasing salience of transnational issues, among other topics. Show NotesChristopher Chilis and Lauren Morganbesser, “What Gen Z Thinks about U.S. Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 17, 2025 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, talks about the Trump administration’s diplomacy with Iran. He discusses the failures of the first Trump administration’s and the Biden administration’s approaches to Iran, why Trump’s second time around could lead to a new nuclear deal, Iran’s changing regional geopolitical position, and why a more peaceful US-Iran relationship serves US interests in the Middle East.Show NotesTrita Parsi, “Why Trump’s Iran Diplomacy May Work,” Time, April 11, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Alexander Wendt, political scientist at Ohio State University, discusses his forthcoming book The Last Humans: UFOs & National Security, on the political and national security consequences of discovering that Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) are piloted by intelligent extra-terrestrial life. He argues that the ontological shock from this discovery risks triggering a civilizational “auto-immune reaction” of widespread disorder that could undermine the international state system and suggests possible policies and pathways to responsibly prepare for this scenario.Show NotesAlexander Wendt, The Last Humans: UFOs and National Security (forthcoming from Oxford University Press)Alexander Wendt, Raymond Duvall, “Sovereignty and the UFO,” Political Theory, 36(4), 607-633. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Stimson Center’s Christopher Preble and Geoff Wilson argue that nuclear weapons modernization programs are wasteful boondoggles that undermine deterrence and stability while serving as a give-away to parochial interests. They discuss a “deterrence first” posture on nuclear weapons, perverse incentives in the bureaucracy, profligate waste and inefficiency, the risks of nuclear escalation, the consequences of eroding nuclear deterrence, and threat inflation on China, among other issues. Show NotesGeoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, Lucas Ruiz, “Gambling on Armageddon: How US Nuclear Policies are Undercutting Deterrence and Lowering the Threshold for Nuclear War,” Stimson Center Report, February 19, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

T.V. Paul, professor of international relations at McGill University, talks about his recent book Unfinished Quest: India’s Search for Major Power Status from Nehru to Modi. Paul discusses India’s international status, the push for permanent membership on the UN Security Council, India’s military capabilities and “reactive grand strategy,” India’s complex relations with Russia and China, how some of India’s domestic problems hamper its international ambitions, and strategic management of the U.S.-Indian relationship, among other topics. Show NotesT.V. Paul, Unfinished Quest: India’s Search for Major Power Status from Nehru to Modi, (Oxford University Press, 2024).  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Barry Posen, professor of political science at MIT, argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 qualifies as a preventive war and was motivated in part to thwart U.S.-led efforts to expand NATO in Europe. He responds to detractors from this view and also discusses the partial political responsibility of U.S. leaders, the difference between explaining the war and justifying it, the lack of strategic empathy in U.S. foreign policy, how best to negotiate the end of the war, and whether the U.S. is making a similar mistake in incentivizing preventive war logic in Beijing with respect to Taiwan.Show NotesBarry R. Posen, “Putin's Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine,” International Security 2025; 49 (3): 7–49. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jennifer Lind, Associate Professor at Dartmouth College, argues that China’s rise now means the world is back to a bipolar balance of power. She provides insight into how U.S. foreign policy should manage this new reality and discusses why polarity is important, how to measure the balance of power, how stable unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar systems are, the major points of conflict between the US and China, and what to do about Taiwan, among other topics. Show NotesJennifer Lind, “Back to Bipolarity: How China's Rise Transformed the Balance of Power,” International Security 2024; 49 (2): 7–55. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Miranda Priebe, senior political scientist at RAND, discusses US strategy towards Europe and Asia and how to manage relations with Russia and China. She talks about changes to US posture towards Europe and Russia following the Ukraine war, NATO strategy, how to manage the Russia-China relationship, and potential changes to US posture in Asia, particularly towards Taiwan. She also touches upon the ‘isolationist’ label, the complicated politics of restraint, and how to put diplomacy at the forefront of US foreign policy, among other topics. Show NotesMiranda Priebe, Jasen Castillo, “Here’s why Trump’s foreign policy is hard to pin down,” MSNBC.com, December 28, 2024.Miranda Priebe, John Schuessler, Bryan Rooney, Jasen Castillo; “Competing Visions of Restraint.” International Security 2024; 49 (2): 135–169.Miranda Priebe and Sam Charap, :”Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That’s the Wrong Question.” The Washington Quarterly, 47(3), 143–159.Miranda Priebe, et al. “Like-Minded Allies? Indo-Pacific Partners' Views on Possible Changes in the U.S. Relationship with Taiwan.” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023.Miranda Priebe and Sam Charan, “Planning for the Aftermath: Assessing Options for U.S. Strategy Toward Russia After the Ukraine War.” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Oona Hathaway, professor of international law at Yale University, addresses President Trump’s plans to expand US territory into Greenland, the Panama Canal, and Canada. She discusses international law, the causes of the decline in interstate war, the difference between norms and laws, the problem of enforcement, tensions between norms against conquest and the need for a negotiated peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, among other topics. Show NotesOona A. Hathaway, Scott J. Shapiro, The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World, Simon & Schuster, 2017. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sam Bresnick, Research Fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, discusses artificial intelligence in the context of the US-China relationship. He explains how AI will be used by states in coming years and compares different obstacles and advantages that both the US and China have in their competition to develop AI and its various applications. Among other topics, he also discusses diplomatic pathways for the US and China to avoid dangerous AI scenarios. Show NotesSam Bresnick, “The Obstacles to China’s AI Power,” Foreign Affairs, December 31, 2024Sam Bresnick, et al., “Which Ties Will Bind?” CSET Issue Brief, February 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Julia Gledhill, Research Associate for the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center, discusses the “permanent war economy” and ongoing efforts to increase military spending. She also talks about perverse incentives for defense contractors, the myth that military spending is properly construed as a jobs program, and the lack of strategic thinking in policy debates on how to confront China, among other issues. Show NotesJulia Gledhill, “The Truth about the Permanent War Economy,” Stimson Center Issue Brief, December 2, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, discusses how the international politics of the Ukraine war have changed since Trump’s election win, how to move towards negotiations to end the war, and the various issues - from territory to NATO membership - to be resolved in any peace deal. Show NotesAnatol Lieven, “Three Conditions for a US-Backed Peace Agreement in Ukraine,” UnHerd, November 30, 2024.Anatol Lieven, George Beebe, “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine,” Quincy Paper #13, February 16, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Joshua Landis, professor of Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma, discusses the recent rebel advances in Syria, the causes and conditions that paved the way for the fall of the Assad regime, the many mistakes of US policy since the start of the civil war, and the regional politics wrapped up in Syria’s future.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University, discusses the foreign policy implications of Trump’s victory, the extent to which it represents a rejection of “Liberal Hegemony,” and why Trump failed in his first term to set U.S. foreign policy on a new course. He also discusses the bureaucratic challenges of reforming foreign policy, what to expect from Trump in the second term, and the potentially beneficial constraints of “American decline,” among other topics. Show NotesStephen M. Walt, “The 10 Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 Election,” Foreign Policy, November 8, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Brandan P. Buck, research fellow at the Cato Institute, discuss the impact of foreign policy in Trump’s electoral victory, whether Democrats will rethink their foreign policy agenda following their losses, what changes Trump might make with respect to the wars in Europe and the Middle East and towards China, among other topics. Show NotesChristopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, “America’s Foreign Policy Inertia,” Foreign Affairs, October 14, 2024Brandan P. Buck, “Harris Embrace of Cheney Goes Back to World War I,” Responsible Statecraft, October 22, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, discusses America’s new regime of high protective tariffs under the Trump and Biden administrations and assesses what may be to come on trade policy under a future Trump or Harris administration. He discusses the overly expansive authorities presidents have to impose tariffs, the weakness of commonly employed national security justifications for them, and the economics of why tariffs fail, among other topics.Show NotesClark Packard and Scott Lincicome, "Presidential Tariff Powers and the Need for Reform," Cato Institute Briefing Paper No. 179, October 9, 2024Scott Lincicome, "Six-Plus Years of Incoherent, Ineffective China Policy," The Dispatch, October 2, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.