Credit Currents - Moody's Ratings

A temporary truce between the US and Iran is contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but disruptions to global supply chains, energy markets, oil prices and various sectors are still risks to credit quality.    In our latest episode of Credit Currents, taped hours before the news broke, we discuss the ways geopolitical shocks ripple through sectors, whether there could be an impact on issuer ratings or outlooks, and why some sectors like defense are less affected.   Host: Chandra Ghosal, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings   Guest: Nick Hill, Global Head of Credit Strategy and Guidance, Moody’s Ratings    Related Research:  Geopolitical risk – Global – Prolonged disruption in the Middle East would have global credit implications 26 March 2026 Corporate default rate would likely rise if Middle East conflict is prolonged 26 March 2026 Sovereigns – Global: Middle East shock will test sovereigns with limited credit buffers 8 April 2026  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Streaming giant Netflix withdrew its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery on the eve of this year’s Oscars, but it doesn’t mean Paramount has won the battle for dominance over the media landscape. Regulators still must approve the deal, and Paramount’s offer comes with huge debt.    In this first episode of Credit Currents, a new video podcast series from Moody’s Ratings, we reveal the stakes at play for traditional film and TV studios, the exponential value of intellectual property (IP), and how massive acquisitions can create credit risk.   We also consider the potentially significant impact of AI on viewing habits and customer preferences.    Host: Patrick Ronk, Vice President, Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings    Guest: Emile El Nems, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings   Related Research:  Media, Telecommunications – US – Media's significant consolidation, streaming shift continue; more telecom competition 2 Feb 2026 Corporates | Media & Publishing - Netflix, Inc. - Credit Opinion – Update to credit analysis following affirmation and changing outlook to stable 29 Dec 2025 Media & Publishing – US – Large streamers thriving amid intense competition, smaller streamers at risk 16 April 2025  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Streaming giant Netflix withdrew its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery on the eve of this year’s Oscars, but it doesn’t mean Paramount has won the battle for dominance over the media landscape. Regulators still must approve the deal, and Paramount’s offer comes with huge debt.     In this first episode of Credit Currents, a new video podcast series from Moody’s Ratings launching on April 2, 2026, we reveal the stakes at play for traditional film and TV studios, the exponential value of intellectual property (IP), and how massive acquisitions can create credit risk.   We also consider the potentially significant impact of AI on viewing habits and customer preferences.     Host: Patrick Ronk, Vice President, Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings     Guest: Emile El Nems, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings     © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Corporate and sovereign default rates are decreasing as GDP growth, slowing inflation and monetary easing aid debt management. But EMs face a number of credit risks including potential US tariffs.Guest: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s RatingsHost: Colin Ellis, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Emerging Markets – Global: 2025 Outlook - Stable but fragile, with looming credit risks  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Markets Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change.Guests: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Gong Cheng, Managing Director, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy, Moody's RatingsHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Institutional reforms, policy reversals, debt restructurings and the prospect of new hydrocarbon production are leading to gradual improvement in some sovereigns’ creditworthiness from weak levels.Guest: John Walsh, Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Governance is key to realising credit benefits for new hydrocarbon producersSovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Institutional reforms are supporting creditworthiness for select sovereigns  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Risk exposure is highest for those directly involved in the region’s three main hotspots. But the knock-on economic effects of the tensions have the potential to hurt, or help, other APAC governments.Guest: Anushka Shah, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Sovereigns – Asia-Pacific: Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for a host of governments   © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-AnalystHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research: Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory divergesNonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fallNonfinancial Companies – India: Offshore funding indispensable despite improving domestic liquidity  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Challenges include the region’s reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy demand amid population growth, the companies’ weak financials and governments’ reliance on revenue from oil and gas producers.Guests: Roxana Munoz and Carolina Chimenti, both Vice President - Senior Analysts, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated research:Oil & Gas – Latin America & Caribbean: National oil companies struggle to reconcile governments' emission-reduction goals  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country’s currency is increasing. The sovereign’s creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies.Guests: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Iker Ballestero Barrutia, Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Moody's Ratings takes rating actions on eight Turkish corporates following upgrade of Turkiye sovereign ratingGovernment of Turkiye – B1 positive: Update following upgrade to B1, outlook remains positiveGovernment of Turkiye: Macro-financial monitor: CBRT tightening shows first results, but more is needed to moderate inflationMoody's Ratings upgrades Turkiye's ratings to B1, maintains positive outlookGovernment of Turkiye: Announced policy shift is credit positive but implementation comes with challenges  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government’s ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too.Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Moody's Ratings downgrades Kenya's ratings to Caa1; maintains negative outlookGovernment of Kenya: Protests against Finance Bill's tax measures challenge government's fiscal consolidation strategyGovernment of Kenya: Kenya's IMF agreement bolsters short-term liquidity; fiscal consolidation is key to improving credit qualitySovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa: 2024 Outlook - Negative on large debt maturities amid tight funding conditions    © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Emerging Markets – Global: GDP growth stays solid; disinflation slowsGlobal Macro Outlook 2024-25 (May 2024 update): G-20 momentum persists in 2024 with disinflation and cooler growth ahead  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The creation of a coalition government following 29 May elections will likely support broad policy continuity and reforms, but the risk of government instability and ineffectiveness is significant.Guest: Aurelien Mali, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's RatingsRelated research:Government of South Africa: National unity government will likely support broad policy continuity and the pursuit of economic reforms    © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Moody’s Ratings experts discuss the fragile recovery and new threats in EMs, including macro conditions, default trends, credit risks for sovereigns and corporates, and bright spots.Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Fragile recovery in EM credit conditions will continueEmerging Markets – Global: Local currency bond markets are growing fast, a credit-positive trend for debt issuersSovereigns – Emerging Markets: Favorable financing conditions will not solve structural credit challengesGovernment-Related Issuers – Emerging Markets: GRIs’ standalone credit strength and government support vary widely across EMsBanks – Emerging Markets: Asset-quality risk is receding but remains high in several countriesTo learn more, visit the Emerging Markets topic page.  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Join Scott Phillips, head of EM at Moody’s Ratings, and Maciej Woznica, portfolio manager at asset management firm Coeli, for a tour of the least-developed emerging markets.Guest: Maciej Woznica, Portfolio Manager, CoeliHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Gradual recovery in emerging market credit conditions will continue (infographic)  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s property market woes.Guest: Yang Liu, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Corporates – Emerging Markets: EM corporate default rate will fall further in 2024 and approach advanced economy rateDefault Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.Guests: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets, Moody’s RatingsRelated research:Tail risks from Israel-Iran conflict pose a major threat to sovereigns regionally and globallyIslamic finance sector will retain strong momentum in 2024Sukuk issuance to decline again in 2024 before stabilizing in 2025Strong US dollar sukuk issuance is positive for companies' capital raising effortsIslamic finance's adoption of blockchain could be beneficial, but faces crucial barriers  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Moody's RatingsSpeaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings   © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.Guest: Gong Cheng, Managing Director - Credit Strategy, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.Guests: Lillian Li, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Ruosha Li, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Ratings  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.