Claim OwnershipMoody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded
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Moody’s experts from around the globe and external guests join hosts Scott Phillips and Vittoria Zoli discuss macro, financial and credit trends shaping the world of emerging markets. Published by Moody’s Investors Service.
98 Episodes
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The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s property market woes.Guest: Yang Liu, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s RatingsRelated Research:Corporates – Emerging Markets: EM corporate default rate will fall further in 2024 and approach advanced economy rateDefault Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.Guests: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets, Moody’s RatingsRelated research:Tail risks from Israel-Iran conflict pose a major threat to sovereigns regionally and globallyIslamic finance sector will retain strong momentum in 2024Sukuk issuance to decline again in 2024 before stabilizing in 2025Strong US dollar sukuk issuance is positive for companies' capital raising effortsIslamic finance's adoption of blockchain could be beneficial, but faces crucial barriers
Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Moody's RatingsSpeaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings
It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.Guest: Gong Cheng, Managing Director - Credit Strategy, Moody's RatingsHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings
China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.Guests: Lillian Li, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Ruosha Li, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s RatingsHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Ratings
Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.Speaker: Mickaël Gondrand, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk. Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:State-contingent debt instruments can aid debt restructuring, but can carry fiscal risks
Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.Hosts: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service
Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.Speakers: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Rehan Akbar, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Investors Service
Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director - Global Sovereign Risk - Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.Speakers: Rebecca Karnovitz, VP-SCO – ESG Research & Outreach at Moody’s Investors Service; Matt Kuchtyak, VP-Sustainable Finance at Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Natasha Brereton-Fukui, SVP-Global ESG Research at Moody’s Investors Service
EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated research:Federal Reserve on hold for longer implies slower pivot to policy easing for some EMs
This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt’s weakening credit quality.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Elisa Parisi-Capone, Vice President - Senior Analyst - Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Moody’s strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland’s election and India’s inclusion in an EM government bond index.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Steffen Dyck, Senior Vice President -- Sovereigns, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss the country-specific reasons inflation is slowing in emerging markets; why Mexico’s industrial production is increasing; and how Gabon’s coup factored into its outlook change.Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Mickaël Gondrand, Analyst – Sovereigns, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
In this episode, Moody’s analysts discuss the reasons for the current property-sector stress and the potential effects for developers, banks that finance them, local authorities and the economy.Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss the growing use – and credit effect – of these transactions amid some sovereigns’ debt sustainability concerns and a need to invest in climate initiatives.Speakers: Thorsten Nestmann, Senior Vice President - Group Credit Officer, Sovereigns and Christopher Bredholt, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Public Project and Infrastructure Finance, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
BSI Fund Chief Investment Officer Kojo Amoo-Gottfried joins Emerging Markets Decoded to discuss emerging markets topics including the macro perspective and investor sentiment toward the asset class. Speaker: Kojo Amoo-Gottfried, Chief Investment Officer, BSI FundHosts: Scott Phillips, AMD – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investor’s Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.Speakers: Lillian Li, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jessie Tung, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
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