The Fraser of Allander Institute Podcast

(00:00) - Introduction(03:22) - Rationale for the Policy(04:40) - Glasgow City Council's Evidence(06:45) - Emissions & Air Quality(10:23) - Piecemeal Approach to Implementation(11:37) - Concerns of Businesses & Residents(16:19) - Using Revenue Raised

Timestamps: 0:30 Budget expectations, OBR leak, and response 4:29 Lifting of the two-child limit on the child element of Universal Credit10:23 Clearing confusion around child benefit, two-child limit, and the benefit cap14:01 Freezing tax thresholds19:25 Smorgasbord of smaller taxes 28:26 Spencer reflects on his first Budget with the FAI 

This episode explores whether the energy sector – and particularly the North East of Scotland – is at a genuine turning point. The conversation looks at how a “just transition” could play out for workers and supply chains as the North Sea continues to decline, and how policy choices over the next five to seven years could mean either many more jobs in offshore energy or a sharp loss of capacity and capability. The guests unpack the idea of an “energy workforce”, not tied to a single fuel, and discuss how companies are increasingly global, chasing projects and moving people across borders while trying to stay agile in a volatile market.Alongside that, they dig into the UK’s shifting tax regime in the North Sea, the impact of the windfall levy, the challenges of the current investment climate, and the added frictions from employment law changes and immigration policy. New modelling shows that the pace of decline in oil and gas could have material economic impacts, especially for Scotland and the North East, where offshore activity underpins a large share of jobs and GVA. Despite the risks and recent redundancies, the tone ends up cautiously optimistic: with clearer policy, better signalling from government and the right incentives, the UK still has the chance to turn its existing strengths – workforce, supply chain and North Sea assets – into a world-class, net zero-focused energy powerhouse.This episode is the fifth in a series partnering Deloitte with the Fraser of Allander Institute. In this series expect lively debate, expert insights, and thought-provoking discussions that will reshape the conversation around Scottish economic growth. Culminating in a landmark event in March 2026, this collaboration will unveil ground-breaking insights and provide a platform for action. This Scottish-focused initiative builds upon Deloitte’s UK-wide Growth 35 programme, painting a bold vision for a thriving UK economy by 2035.Timestamps(00:00) - (04:30) - Welcome, context & guest introductions(04:30) - (12:30) - Is the energy sector at a turning point? – “Striking the Balance”(12:30) - (21:00) - From oil & gas to an “energy workforce” and a global supply chain(21:00) - (31:30) - Investment climate and the North Sea fiscal regime(31:30) - (38:00) - Employment rights, immigration policy and agility(38:00) - (42:00) - Economic modelling: managed vs accelerated decline(42:00) - (45:41) - Lessons from 2015, current mood & reasons for optimismThe full transcript is available here. 

(06:25) Setting the Scene: Sector Snapshot & Data Challenges - Opening context, series aims, and the recurring measurement/data issues in the sector.(11:43) — Jobs & Output: 47k Roles and £15.5bn Activity - Headline figures and what they signal about deployment and momentum.(17:02) — Beyond Either/Or: Oil & Gas and Renewables Together - Why “one rises as the other falls” is a false dichotomy; the supply-chain reality.(22:20) — Grid, Supply Chain & Investor Confidence - Electrification, grid buildout, portfolio procurement, and the need to secure volume.(27:39) — Communities & Skills: Place-Based Opportunities - Thriving industries mean thriving communities; skills pathways and careers.(32:57) — Regional Tour: Inverness, Ardrishaig & the ‘Electric Highway’ - Examples of local investments and EV-enabled connectivity.(38:15) — Shetland & Viking Wind: Community Stakes and Lessons -Decarbonisation at Sullom Voe and community participation challenges around Viking.(48:52) — Reality Check Since 2022: Costs, Pace and What’s Next - How rising input costs and programme pace shape near-term priorities and delivery.

In the final episode of our Key Figures series Mairi Spowage speaks to Professor in Economics at the Adam Smith Business School, and previous director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, Graeme Roy.

Our next episode of Key Figures features the esteemed David Bell, Professor of Economics at the University of Stirling and a core original member of the Fraser of Allander Institute.

In the third installment of our Key Figures series, Mairi Spowage speaks to Kim Swales and Peter McGregor: two economists who were director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at various times, and instrumental to our longstanding work in CG modelling.

In the second episode of our Key Figures interview series, we talk to Elizabeth Ashcroft, one of the original editors of our long-running Economic Commentaries. We cover her life, the origins of the Institute, and her thoughts on the rapidly changing economic landscape in Scotland.

Clarification 15/9/25 -  Victor Bulmer-Thomas did not resign as Director of Chatham House in 2003 over the Iraq war. He left at the end of 2006, although he did author a paper on Blair's foreign policy that was very critical of the invasion. 

ParticipantsDr Hannah Randolph - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander InstituteDr João Sousa - Deputy Director at the Fraser of Allander InstituteTime stamps(0:40) What pressures does the chancellor face ahead of the autumn budget statement?(8:30) Prospects for improved economic conditions(11:00) Potential policy changes in the Autumn Budget statement(17:00) Impact on the Scottish budget process 

(00:25) Price changes after removal(01:37) Reasoning behind peak fares and removal  (03:23) Learning from the peak fares removal pilot(06:00) What policies might shift commuters away from cars?  (08:47) Alternatives to rail travel(10:57) Policy costs and potential for financial neutrality 

ParticipantsDr Hannah Randolph - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander InstituteAllison Catalano - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute and the Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (SHERU)Time stamps(00:06) Introduction(01:20) What is the LFS and what are the issues it's been having? (6:57) Alternative data sources for understanding the labour market(18:23) Misunderstandings around what's happened in the post-pandemic labour market(19:39) ONS changes to improve the quality of the LFS(23:40) How poor employment statistics may impact local decision-making(27:49) Information about FAI 50th anniversary conference

(00:29) What is GERS and why is it important?(10:19) What do the latest figures tell us and what factors are driving changes?(14:23) What were our thoughts on the Scottish Government response?(25:51) How likely is GERS to feature in the upcoming general election?

04:27 - What does the UK innovation survey say about innovation in Scotland?07:10 - Is there really a decline in innovation across Scotland? 12:00 - Is business investment in Scotland really less than rest of UK?15:44 - Product innovation versus process innovation21:00 - How do skills shortages affect innovation?24: 00 - How does company size affect innovation?27:04 - How can businesses collaborate with universities to address skills development?29:00 - Where is the policy environment in Scotland when it comes to innovation?             

(00:38) What is the Scottish Business Monitor?(02:44) What business types are represented and what is the sample size?(04:28) Has poor business sentiment from Q1 2025 recovered in Q2?(06:50) What changes have we seen based on the changes to employer national insurance contributions?(08:37) What does business sentiment look like for 2026?(11:26) What factors are contributing to current business sentiment? 

Timestamps(00:23) What is congestion charging?(02:59) Exemptions(04:49) Similarities with LEZs(07:10) Timing of charges(10:26) Use of discounts & revenue(14:54) Clyde Tunnel Toll(16:26) Edinburgh’s failed proposal(20:13) Other UK charges(21:43) Effectiveness of congestion charges(23:37) Glasgow’s public transport system(25:57) Public attitudes

Timestamps: (01:55) The Social Policy Association (SPA) and the East Asian Social Policy Research Network (EASP)(04:15) The Hospitality Sector – Serving the Future Project (07:30) Learning Disabilities & Employment (10:30) Child Poverty (14:40) Housing & Health (19:10) Labour One Year in Office: Tax Policy & Wealth Taxes? (24:30) Key Takeaways from the Conference 

Yesterday, the Scottish Government published their medium-term financial strategy, which kicks off the Scottish Budget process. Hannah Randolph is joined by FAI Director Mairi Spowage to share their reactions. (2:08) What does the medium-term financial strategy do? (8:47) Financial strategy across spending areas (18:04) Public sector reform (25:06) Looking ahead to the Scottish spending review

PARTICIPANTSDr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeProfessor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde Ben Cooper, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of StrathclydeTIME STAMPS(0:20) History of the FAI(5:30) FAI conference plans(10:15) Parliamentary reception plans(11:40) Where to find more information about the FAI 50th

Introduction What are investors saying? 03:43 Why is policy certainty so important? 10:27 Energy companies versus energy investors: 13:05 Where should government focus on? 17:52 Why the grid is so important? 24:42 Importance of effective carbon pricing regime: 31:04 Policy Responses from UK and Scottish Government: 42:11