The Business Trendsetter Podcast

Only 6 weeks into the new administration and many small and mid-size business leaders are giving up on planning.  With Musk at DOGE sending out cost cutting measures, while other real department heads appear to be doing nothing – or doing something equally outrageous – it’s easy to say “there’s no reason to plan. Who knows what will happen next?” That would be wrong. This podcast explains how the big trends have not changed. On the surface it may appear different, but if you know your customers’ needs you know to continue pursuing them.  What’s happening around you is not “disruption, “ but in fact chaos.  And during chaos opportunities abound. Surely you can see through the chaos to identify customers’ needs and how the cuts being made only create more opportunities to fill those needs.  Don’t be paralyzed by the loudness and outrageousness.  Don’t let poorly defined terms like “swamp” confuse you.  Instead recognize that chaos has happened before, and you can manage your way through it with good planning.  Lead like a winner during this period and you’ll be a winner as things reach a “new normal.” Thinking Points:Did you do scenario planning back in November, after the election, to prepare for what’s happening now?Are you recognizing how the big trends have not changed?  Just how you can react to them in some markets.Chaos creates opportunity - by definition.  Do you see it that way, or are you choosing to be paralyzed?Do you realize great leaders create. They don’t tear apart. Are you ready to help your customers grow during their feeling of fear?

Starbucks succeeded for years by building out a fantastic Value Delivery System supporting its Value Proposition.  This podcast explains how leadership allowed a focus on the VDS to drift the company away from its VP, and recently hire a new CEO who’s doing enormous harm to long term value by implementing short-term VDS improvements.This podcast also overviews what SMB leaders need to know about DeepSeek and the evolution of AI. AI is getting better and cheaper, and like the internet did previously, is greatly improving business capabilities at lower cost. What’s been called “breakthroughs” are significant advancements that demonstrate all businesses will have no choice about using AI if they are to survive, thus it is imperative SMBs start using the technology now.  This podcast provides jumping off points to get started.Thinking Points:Do you know your Value Proposition? Are your “improvements” enhancing your VP to customers, or detracting from your VP by focusing on how to lower cost?Are you encouraging employees to seek out applications of AI to improve operations and enhance your Value Proposition?Are you testing applications for both generative and reasoning AI?Does your future planning include significant application of AI, or are you expecting AI to happen magically?

Netflix just blew out expectations for new subscribers, and the stock – one again – is at all time highs.  To understand why Netflix is so successful is to understand that the company keeps investing in entirely new markets and solutions, which drives new revenue streams.  Rather than focusing on how to do more of the same better, faster, cheaper Netflix keeps using trends to find new growth opportunities. This podcast explains how attempts to defend & extend your business ultimately fail – like Sears.  And like the bad decisions McDonald’s made to grow the burger business rather than investing in Chipotles and Boston Market.  And how the CNN CEO killed CNN+ when the market was going digital.  Yet we all over-invest in our old business, and under-invest in doing the new thing.  Because we’re too comfortable thinking we can get away with it, when in fact we can’t. Thinking Points:How much of your time do you spend defending & extending your current business versus looking for new opportunities?How many of your best people are working on defending your current business vs identifying new opportunities?How willing are you to invest in something new for higher growth, even as returns on your existing business are declining?Are you watching trends and figuring out how the world will create opportunites, or are you fixated on solving problems?

The episode of the Business Trendsetter Podcast Innovators Series features Manny Teran interviewing Frank Vidal, a development manager and founder of the Tucson Thrive virtual mastermind group. Frank shares insights into his community-building efforts through Tucson Thrive, which fosters open, vulnerable discussions and authentic relationships among members. The conversation explores mentorship gaps for entrepreneurs, the impact of social media and AI on networking, the importance of financial literacy, and the need for creating meaningful personal connections. Frank highlights the value of storytelling, vulnerability, and building community as cornerstones of personal and professional growth.  

The administration is changing in 2025, and it’s sure to impact businesses. But you can plan for change. Looking backward, all the way to Kodak and Xerox and Amazon we can see that it is possible to plan your way to success, while avoiding pitfalls, decline and failure.  It’s important to plan for trends, rather than just looking at the past, realizing that big trends transcend politics offering the chance to grow regardless administrations. This podcast overviews the big trends that will impact all businesses, and offers insights on how to plan for success.  Demographics have nothing to do with administrations, and by understanding those trends you can become a leader in your business – both by retargeting your hiring and better understanding customer needs.  And understanding that promotion is now completely different, yet still accessible if you put your money in the right place. Meanwhile, understanding your Value Proposition can keep you from backsliding into oblivion as you do more of the same, while those who overcome rigidity to their Value Delivery System move forward with new offerings meeting emerging needs. Thinking Points:Do you let your plans be jerked around by headlines and politician statements, or do you have a handle on how long-term trends will impact your customers needs and your suppliers?Are you implementing processes that worked 10, 20, or more years ago failing to recognize that you need new processes to reach customers and effectively source?When you meet a really tough problem do you become Don Quixote, fighting to continue despite the trends, or do you adapt to the inevitable?Are you tracking the results of your existing practices and looking for “a better way?” 

Molly Gravatt, the inspiring founder of Radiant Dev, shares her remarkable journey from a career in volleyball  to trailblazer in technology staffing. Her story is a testament to the power of perseverance, people, and purpose. With over a decade of experience at Allegis Group, Molly honed her expertise in building connections and understanding what drives businesses forward: their people.A life-changing moment during her divorce, coupled with unwavering support from her partner, gave Molly the courage to leap into entrepreneurship. Today, Radiant Dev is redefining the staffing industry by crafting high-performing engineering teams and fostering meaningful relationships with both W2 and 1099 workers.Molly’s approach stands out in an industry often marked by transactional interactions—she champions a personal, thoughtful touch that prioritizes people over process. She also speaks passionately about the transformative role of AI in recruitment, the shifting dynamics of the workforce, and the urgent need to eliminate bias in hiring practices.Molly’s story is a powerful reminder that embracing change, valuing people, and leading with authenticity can spark extraordinary success.

Spark Partners is excited to introduce the Innovators Series, a special mini-series within the Business Trendsetter Podcast. In this new series, Manny Teran will sit down with entrepreneurs, business leaders, and bold innovators to uncover the stories behind their journeys—exploring their triumphs, challenges, and the lessons they’ve learned along the way.Meanwhile, the core Business Trendsetter Podcast will continue to bring you weekly episodes featuring Adam Hartung and Manny Teran, offering valuable insights into trends, current events, and case studies that reveal what it truly takes to achieve long-term success. Stay tuned and join the conversation with Spark Partners!

After almost a decade, and investing $10B, GM has simply quit the Robotaxi effort.  It joins a long list of big-time investors who wrote off more billions – Uber, Lyft, Ford and even Apple. Why were they so wrong?  This podcast explains how the lack of a Value Proposition meant these efforts were unlikely to succeed, even with “all the money in the world.”  Lacking a clear reason for their existence, this was money chasing technology for technology’s sake – versus customer needs. We can learn from this lesson not only how to be smart about investing in new markets, but also how to get more focused with our offerings in order to improve our Value Proposition and chances of success – as has happened with the long-haul driverless truck segment.  And, we can learn how tracking investments by the giants create opportunities for SMBs to leverage their investments for gains in smaller businesses.  When we can’t afford to invest like giants we can afford to adapt new developments for the good of our customers and our business. Thinking Points:Are you sure you know your Value Proposition – and the poorly met needs of customers?  Do you know what they need and don’t have a solution for today?Do you look for segments where needs are particularly acute, and offer much higher returns for implementing new solutions that add value?Are you focused on understanding were companies with big money are investing their money, so you can leverage their investments into solutions for your customers?Are you willing to be an early adopter of new technologies so you can lead your customers to better solutions, rather than cautiously waiting and thus letting competitors get the edge?

We often think of risk and uncertainty as the same thing. We say “I don’t  know what to do,” concluding doing something (often anything) seems risky.  But that is wrong.  Just because you’re uncertain what to do doesn’t mean it’s risky.  And you can be certain about what you do while taking actions (often doing the status quo) that incur a lot of risk.  It’s important to know the difference so you can manage both uncertainty and risk successfully. This podcast explains how doing nothing in the face of uncertainty is usually the worst thing you can do.  Instead we need to recognize that uncertainty doesn’t mean risk, and work to reduce the uncertainty so you can properly assess risk and make good decisions.  Just because you don’t know what to do doesn’t mean you don’t need to take action.  Success requires we understand how to recognize uncertainty, and manage the uncertainty.  Then accumulate information in order to properly assess the risk.  This podcast explains how you can do that, especially as we face a very challenging and uncertain change in administrations in 2025. Thinking Points:Do you often stop, and wait, before making a business decision just because you’re uncertain what to do?Have you ever recognized that if you had taken a decision sooner you would have created a better outcome?Do you often see the future as risky?  Do you avoid what you perceive as risky?Do you try to eliminate uncertainty by avoiding change – even in the face of unavoidable change?

The election results are in, and it’s assured that America – which means the globe – is going to be dealing with change.  Are you prepared?  Hoping these changes won’t affect your business is foolhardy, and luck is not a strategy! Long-term trends are not affected by this election.  The upside-down demographic pyramid isn’t going to change, nor is climate change and awareness thereof, nor is the rapid movement to automated processes. The new administration will likely react to all 3 differently than the previous administration, but the trends are still there and will impact  your business.  Scenario planning can be well applied to these short-term impacts in order to prepare for threats, and seize opportunities!  This podcast explains how to use scenario planning tools to understand likely impacts, and how to prepare. SMB leaders are busy folks. They have a business to run, with daily struggles to meet customer needs and manage costs.  It’s easy to skip scenario planning for the future in lieu of managing today.  But we KNOW that the short-term future will be loaded with change. This isn’t a maybe, it’s a certainty.  Never has scenario planning been more important to prepare for the short-term disruptions, while positioning for long-term success.  Listen to how you can identify changes and use scenario planning to act today so you are prepared tomorrow.Luck is not a strategy!!  Scenario planning can create a viable strategy for future success.  Now is the time.Thinking points:Mass deportations will worsen the labor shortage problem.Reduction in law enforcement (FBI, ATF, etc) will increase cybercrime, fraud, white collar crime, drug sales and gun availability.Protecting your customers, employees, suppliers and community will increasingly rely on you doing more, relying on government entities less.Reduced reliance on vaccines and immunizations, plus lowered budgets for drug and food testing, means that responsibility for health and welfare of customers, employees and family members will be up to business leaders.Firings of military leaders and elimination of DEI programs will further damage the ability to recruit and retain soldiers, leading to fewer troops available for fighting offshore threats.  Increasing the risk to supply chains and more foreign conflicts.Simultaneously a near-term focus of using the military for domestic issues like rounding up deportees will reduce resources for offshore threats, protecting supply chains and taking advantage of global opportunities.

AI chip maker Nvidia is replacing Intel on the Dow Jones Industrial Average this week.  This may seem irrelevant to your business.  But it is, in fact, pretty meaningful.  There is an important lesson in this podcast for all leaders about maintaining relevancy, following trends and smartly investing your resources. The DJIA members are supposed to be the 30 most secure, powerful and safe public companies in America.  But they keep changing. In the last years some pretty important companies were kicked off the list – Intel, Walgreens, Exxon-Mobil, Pfizer, GE, AT&T, Alcoa, HP, Bank of America, Kraft, General Motors, Kodak, Sears.  Who replaced them?  Nvidia, Amazon, Salesforce, Amgen, Apple, Nike, Visa, United Health Group, Cisco Systems, Verizon and Home Depot.  Do you see a pattern? Those kicked off were great companies, but they became great being good at something that became irrelevant.  The replacements are companies that recognized big trends, then built on those trends to rapidly grow sales and become important market leaders.  The new guys – like the Biblical David – used new tools to overwhelm industry giants and come out victorious.  This podcast explains how companies of all sizes can act like David in order to be more successful, and overwhelm other competitors that look like giants but can be beaten by using new, available tools. Thinking Points:Do you ever question your relevancy in your market?  To your customers?Do you know your customers biggest unmet needs – even if those ummet needs aren’t aligned with your Value Delivery System?Do you invest in new tools to be more competitive, or mostly invest in trying to improve what you’ve always done?Do you recognize trends, and change where you invest along with the trends to be more successful?

During the pandemic we learned how to work very effectively outside the office.  Work From Home became the trend, and it has persevered more than 5 years later.  But some leaders want to go against the trend and make employees return to the office full time.  It is never a good idea to fight trends, and this podcast explains why full time return to office is a very bad idea. 1) Employees are less productive working from an office.  A lot of time is wasted on unnecessary tasks (documented in this podcast,) which costs a lot of money.  And leaders tend to be really sloppy managing people and the work process, leading to even poorer productivity.2) Employee engagement is going in the dumpster – which is the opposite from the goal return to office was supposed to create.  This podcasts takes a deeper dive into sources of engagement, and identifies why the trend to working from home creates higher engagement, while forcing folks to the office does the opposite.3) Demographics do  not favor the employer. With more retirees and fewer young workers, employees have the stronger hand. If you want to succeed you have to manage employees along the trends that make them want to work for you. Thinking points:Did you think productivity was worse in the pandemic, or better?Do you really think employees prefer 100% in office to a WFH or hybrid environment?  Want data confirms your thinking?Do you focus on creating stronger engagement, or are you trying to brute force higher productivity?Do you want an innovative and motivated workforce? If so, are you doing what will motivate them (rather than motivates you?)

Every business owner wants to know the secret to great success.  It’s really more simply than most think – because it’s all about growth. Years ago we researched the sources of wealth creation, and nothing was even close to being as important as revenue growth. This podcast explains why 10%/year revenue growth is crucial to remaining relevant, and why just 2 quarters of declining revenue can be deadly.  A dive into Starbucks revenue troubles demonstrates how easily a company can derail itself by focusing on one thing. And we explain why higher earnings at Tesla is buoying the stock, but revenue problems in the auto part of the company likely portends rough days ahead for the EV pioneer.  Companies that don’t shift with markets will end up like the pharmacy retailers Walgreens, Rite Aid, CVS and independents that have mosly lost relevancy despite fantastic histories. Thinking points:Do you have a plan to grow  your revenues at 10%/year for the next decade?Do you think business is fine as long as you have earnings, even if revenues struggle?If you see a growth stall ahead do you know how to refocus on growth?Is your market shifting in ways that could make you irrelevant in the future?

Not so amazingly, we now know that people no longer stay at their jobs as long as they once did.  Few stick around 10 years, and most leave a job every 4.  Likewise, we know that warmer oceans have led to warmer gulfs, so hurricanes are more frequent and stronger – as are other bad weather events like floods and tornadoes. Despite knowing this is true, too few people build these facts into their future scenarios so they can make better decisions.  This podcast explains how you can make far better decisions for the long-term health of your company if you utilize demographic trends to expand your gig workforce, and to smartly look for suppliers who aren’t in demographically troubled locations.  Likewise, if you use climate trends you can realize that old notions about geographic location are out of date, and you’ll be a lot better off you position your business where you can succeed.Lastly this podcast overviews how NFL coaches are making better decisions and winning more games by using data, rather than historical practices and gut instincts.  Announcers, fans and even owners are finding it challenging, but the NFL is quickly moving toward statistics for play calling, similar to how major league baseball did 20 years ago.Thinking points:Even though demographic trends are clearly apparent and easy to predict, do you make them part of your decision-making?Even though climate change is real, obvious and used for making weather predictions are you still denying that climate has an enormous impact on your business -- and how you make adjustments today can be the difference between success and failure?Are you open to changing your ideas about hiring, management and location in order to improve your business success?Do you collect data on your products, solutions and customers so you can see how to be more successful, or do you rely on gut instinct and how things always got done?

23andMe came on the scene as Time magazines “Invention of the Year” in 2008.  The silicon valley DNA testing company went public with a $6B valuation in 2021. Now it’s worth $150M and sinking fast as the Board has resigned and the company appears directionless.  What went wrong? MOL Group in Hungary thought of itself as an oil & gas developer and retailer.  But today it is doing wildly better, growing revenues and profits and is a leader in AI implementation despite being far from silicon valley operating in eastern Europe.  What went right? This podcast explains how the former relied on its invention – its Value Delivery System – to launch, but never developed an understanding of its customers and the value they were ready to pay for.  Neat technology, but not developed in a way that offered real value for customers or those in health care.  It never had a clear Value Proposition.  MOL group redefined its business away from its Value Delivery System, developing a very clear Value Proposition, which it used to move quickly into adopting and implementing artificial intelligence for streamlined operations that delivered greater growth. Your failure or success depends on having that clear Value Proposition to drive strategy and investment into new technologies for optimization and revenue growth.  And this podcast goes further by describing how you can go from Value Proposition to action with a process for applying AI. Thinking Points:Do you know your Value Proposition – and is it clearly stated for the whole organization to use as a guiding light?Are you sure your Value Proposition isn’t just a fancy description of you Value Delivery System?Are you ready to move forward with new technologies, like AI, because you clearly see how they add value to your customers (as well as  yourself?)Are you committed to transitioning and enhancing your Value Delivery System with new tools like AI in order to remain relevant with customers and find new routes to higher revenues?

Recent headlines could have easily persuaded you that the long term trend to sustainable energy was being upended. Yes, coal generation is closing, and nuclear plants are being reopened.  Yes, the demand for electricity is expanding faster than ever due to the growth of AI. But headlines don’t try to explain trends, and the trend to sustainable energy will continue.  This podcast explains how important it is to separate trend data from headlines, so that you can smartly follow trends to better growth.  At the same time, by exploring Apple’s floundering in AppleTV and its movie production we dig into how following trends often means finding new ways to deliver value, like Alphabet’s YouTube.  And we explain the process of using teams to develop new approaches that build on trends, avoiding the traps of historical approaches that are outdated and losing relevancy. Thinking Points:Do you scan headlines, and then let these short-term exclamations alter your trend analysis?When doing something new do you look for new approaches, or try to implement historical “best practices?”Are you investing in trends, or defending and extending your old business?Do you have teams dedicated to finding innovative ways to build on trends like AI?

The “Mandela Effect” is a term describing large numbers of people believing something is true, when in fact it is not true.  The term originated from large numbers of people believing Mandela was dead almost 30 years before he died. There are lots of examples, such as most people think they can buy “Jiffy” peanut butter when the real name is Jif.  Or thinking Tupperware is non-existent when in fact it was still selling plastic ware until filing bankruptcy this week. This podcast explains how in business there is one very deadly Mandela Effect.  That is the belief that long-term success comes from focusing on earnings and cash flow.  This belief will inevitably lead to failure – as case reviews of Boeing, Intel and Red Lobster were explained in previous podcasts – and how it is explained in this podcast via case study of Kmart and Sears.  Earnings and cash flow are the RESULT of better managing – meaning increasing – revenues.  A focus on revenues – like previously explained in the Microsoft podcast – is crucial for both short and long term success.  Only by looking at poorly met and unmet customer needs – things outside your “core” – can you keep revenues growing and insure you’ll have the desired earnings and cash flow in the future. Thinking Points:Do you pay more attention to growing revenues, or growing earnings?Do you know your customers’ “pain points?”  Their poorly met and unmet needs?Do you use “gut instinct” for business decision-making, or do you focus on revenue impact?Are you ready to go outside your historical business model (and comfort zone) to increase revenues? 

A decade ago Microsoft was well on its way to irrelevancy. Forbes mag christened Ballmer was the worst CEO in America.  The Board fired him, and today his replacement has led Microsoft to pre-eminence in tech, atop the AI heap.  His lessons for how to turn around a behemoth are relevant for organizations large and small.This podcast explains how Nadella immediately de-invested in the “core” Microsoft products of Windows and Office.  Instead he poured company resources into SAAS (Software As A Service) and cloud computing.  He quit investing in 3% growth markets, and put the money (and people) into 30%/yr growth markets. Instead of letting xBox languish he made the enormous investment to buy Activision/Blizzard, and now the Gaming division is growing at 60% year over year every quarter.  And when other companies were reluctant to invest in AI, Nadella led the way.  He demonstrated that even an enormous company with a well defined legacy could nimbly change its investments so that the company could return to growth.  And you can follow his lead by investing in growth opportunities – and getting yourself neck deep into using AI. Thinking Points:Are you letting history guide your investments of money, people and time?  Or are you putting your resources where they can generate growth?Are you putting revenue growth first and foremost on your strategy agenda?  Or do you fall into discussions about earnings and cash flow?Do you know how AI will change  your customers world in 5 years, and thus change  your world?Are you investing in training, tools and processes to implement AI in your business?

Spark Partners has been coaching clients for almost 30 years on how to achieve long-term success.  But despite the research, the books, the Forbes (and other) articles and interviews, people are still getting things wrong.  The failure cases of 30 years ago are forgotten (Multgraphics, Kodak, Xerox) while new cases – with identical patterns to the old – are happening right now in 2024 – Boeing, Intel, Walgreens, Red Lobster and Big Lots. This podcast explores how the “best practices” for business from the 1990s and early 2000s are killing companies.  Old ideas of “focus on your core” doom your success.  Even though we think doing more, better, faster and cheaper will inevitably lead to success, the opposite is true.  The more you focus on what you do, the faster you’ll lose relevancy and find your way to big problems and failure.  The more you pay attention to earnings the more likely you’ll lose relevance and fall into a sales decline. Listen to how the pattern keeps repeating – and how you can break out of the pattern to be much more successful – like Campbell’s (surprised at that one I bet – go listen!)Thinking Points:Do you spend most of your time keeping the business going?  Improving things for customers?Do you use up all (or most) of your resources (time, energy, employees, assets) on your current business?Do you find yourself adverse to the risk of doing new things, so delaying starting new things?Do you know the biggest trends that will drive revenue growth in your industry over the next decade?Do you spend more time fixing problems than researching trends?Do you have a formal resource allocation process to help you invest in the right things?

Intel is looking more like Kodak, Hostess Baking, ToysRUs and GE every day.  People wonder “How can a company that is so successful, so innovative screw up its business so badly?”  There really is a pattern to what these companies did wrong, which you can avoid.  Listen to this podcast, using the Intel case study to explain how leaders fall into the bad decision-making trap.  Learn how you can be more like Microsoft, Apple and Amazon today, on the edge of “the next big thing.” People get stuck doing what they’ve always done, and reluctant to do (or invest in) new things.  Intel’s success in the 1060s as a chip manufacturer and then in the 1980s as a microprocessor manufacturer caused leadership – and the company culture – to believe that they would forever succeed if they just kept making chips and CPU microprocessors.  But the world shifted, and now chip making isn’t profitable – and Intel no longer has an advantage.  And the big growth in chip development isn’t in CPUs (like the x86 series upon which the PC business was built) but in parallel operations with neural processing units that were originally developed for gaming and now the heartbeat of AI.  Key decisions to support the historical company strength and not invest in smaller, newer but high growth markets years ago have led to Intel’s remarkable fall from success today. Thinking Points:Do you know the high growth “on the edge” things happening in your marketplace(s)?Do you always resource your old business before even considering investing in new things?Do you spend a lot of your time, your people, your money and other assets protecting your current business rather than looking for new growth opportunities?Are you growing at 10%+ every year?  Do you have a plan to double your revenue every 5.5 years?