35 West

On Sunday, May 5, Panamanians will cast their votes to determine the next president, as well as all members of the National Assembly. With a crowded field of candidates vying for the presidency, and only a single round to determine the victor, it promises to be a divided field. The elections are also taking place within a deeply polarized context, as Panama has been rocked by mass protests against the Cobre Panama Mining project, the country grapples with both a worsening water crisis, and the endemic challenge of corruption continues to loom large. In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Annette Planells, a civil society leader and anticorruption activist, and Executive President of the newspaper La Prensa. Together, they discuss the election's implications for Panama's ongoing fight against corruption, especially in light of the disqualification of ex-president and former frontrunner Ricardo Martinelli following his conviction on bribery charges. They also reflect on how the various candidates will navigate some of the most salient questions in Panamanian politics today, including water insecurity, infrastructure, as well as Panama's relations with both China and the United States.

Looking across the hemisphere today, crime and insecurity appears on the march, with transnational criminal groups ascendant from Mexico to the Caribbean and southern cone. In light of this, it is important to reflect upon the history of U.S.-LAC security cooperation, where we have seen two major, multi-year security initiatives launched and concluded in the past 25 years, Plan Colombia, and the Mérida Initiative.   In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Dr. Paul Angelo, Director of the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at National Defense University. Together, they discuss his new book From Peril to Partnership: US Security Assistance and the Bid to Stabilize Colombia and Mexico. They trace the divergent origins and outcomes of both Plan Colombia and the Mérida Initiative, as well as the current security challenges facing the hemisphere.

Semiconductors form the building blocks of modern digital life. Chips govern everything from missile guidance systems to the headlights in your car, and the fight for the cutting edge of this technology appears to be entering a new phase. The United States, in partnership with allies like Japan and the Netherlands, has sought to cut off China’s access to advanced chip designs and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In response, China has announced a raft of export controls on minerals needed to produce modern chips, leveraging its dominance in the supply chain for mining and refining key minerals. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Dr. Chris Miller, Associate Professor with the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and author of Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. Together, they analyze the challenges and choke points in the semiconductor supply chain, including the need to identify and certify alternative suppliers, as well as the role that countries in the Western Hemisphere can play in breaking China's monopoly over the raw material inputs for semiconductors. They also unpack the challenges to getting more mining, refining, and processing online, and how the United States can better partner with allies to shore up this sector of the supply chain.

Haiti’s years-long political and security crisis entered a new phase last week when Prime Minister Ariel Henry, Haiti’s acting head of state since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, announced his resignation. Now, Haiti faces a period of profound uncertainty, with a serious power vacuum in government, ascendant criminal groups within striking distance of the halls of state power, and increasingly narrow prospects for a long-awaited international aid mission. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Georges Fauriol, Senior Associate with the CSIS Americas Program and fellow with the Caribbean Policy Consortium. Together, they unpack the implications of Henry's resignation, the recent surge in gang activity, as well as what the future may hold as Haiti continues to struggle to come to terms with citizen security. They also discuss the reactions of Haitian civil society, and the lack of substantial action on the part of the international community.

Citizens from LAC countries have also played a more direct role in the conflict as foreign fighters for both sides. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv publish exact data on the number or nationality of LAC fighters who join their ranks, but estimates range from several hundred to more than a thousand fighters total spread across each front.  On February 23, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, sat down with Elizabeth M.F. Grasmeder, Adjunct Professor of National Security Policy with Duke University, and Andrei Serbin Pont, Executive Director of CRIES-LAC, for a conversation on X (formerly Twitter) about the role of foreign fights from LAC on both sides in Ukraine. Together, they unpacked the motivations of fighters for joining both Ukraine and Russia, why Moscow and Kyiv have turned to recruiting foreign fighters, and the broader implications of war in Ukraine for Latin American countries.

On Sunday, February 4, Salvadorans headed to the polls to cast their votes in what virtually all analysts predicted would yield a landslide victory for incumbent President Nayib Bukele. However, official confirmation of Bukele’s victory was interrupted as the president declared the opposition was “pulverized” before the final transmission of the votes had been completed and announced by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. While this appears to have been resolved in Bukele’s favor, with the tribunal officially announcing Bukele’s victory with some 83 percent of the vote, this incident is but the latest in a steady march of democratic backsliding in El Salvador, one where Bukele has shown contempt for any effort to check his executive authority. In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Noah Bullock, Executive Director of Cristosal, a leading human rights organization which has been closely tracking the infringements upon civil and political rights under the Bukele administration. Together, they unpack the consequences of El Salvador's presidential elections, what to expect under a second Bukele term, and how the United States should respond.

Last month, Ecuador was rocked by a series of attacks carried out by members of criminal gangs. Over the course of two days of grueling violence, inmates rioted and took over prisons, gangs detonated car bombs across the country, and armed gunmen even stormed a live television broadcast in the violence-wracked city of Guayaquil. Then a few days later, the prosecutor investigating the attack on the TV station was gunned-down in cold blood. In response, newly-elected President Daniel Noboa has mobilized the armed forces and declared a state of “internal armed conflict” along with designating some 22 criminal groups as terrorist organizations. In this episode, Sebastián Hurtado, President and Founder of the Quito-based political risk consultancy Prófitas returns to 35 West to sit down with Christopher Hernandez-Roy. Together, they analyze the causes and consequences of spiking violence in Ecuador, the pressures Noboa faces to deliver quick results, and the challenges facing the Ecuadorian government's attempts to regain control over prisons and tamp down on ascendant criminal groups.

In the months since Bernardo Arevalo's upset victory in Guatemala's presidential elections, a small elite often referred as “the pact of the corrupt,” has tried to derail the president-elect from taking office. In response, the United States imposed visa restrictions on nearly 300 Guatemalan congressmen and business leaders, while the Organization of American States, other international organizations and civil society raised mounting cries to respect the outcome of the election. For the time being, their tireless efforts appear to have paid off, with President Arrevalo taking office on January 14th, but only after a last-ditch effort by members in congress to block him.  In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Ambassador Frank O. Mora, U.S. Ambassador to the Organization of American States. Together, they shine a spotlight on the efforts of Guatemalan civil society, the OAS and the U.S. to defend democracy from efforts to overturn electoral results. They also look ahead to upcoming elections in the hemisphere, and analyze the role of the United States and OAS in safeguarding election integrity, and resisting democratic backsliding.

En esta edición especial en español, Christopher Hernández-Roy, Director Adjunto y Senior Fellow del Programa sobre las Américas, conversa con Yaxys Cires, Director de Estrategia del Observatorio Cubano de Derechos Humanos sobre los resultados del último Examen Periódico Universal de Cuba del Consejo de Derechos Humanos de Naciones Unidas. Analizan la dicotomía entre la retórica gubernamental y la triste realidad de los derechos humanos en Cuba así como la profunda crisis económica que atraviesa la isla y cómo el régimen de Díaz-Canel ha respondido a estas presiones. In this special Spanish-language episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Americas Program, sits down with Yaxys Cires, Director of Strategy at the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights to discuss the recent United Nations Human Rights Council Universal Periodic Review of Cuba. They discuss the dichotomy between the government’s rhetoric and the sad reality of Cuba's human rights record. They also discuss the mounting economic crisis facing the island and how the Díaz-Canel government has responded to these pressures.

Mexico's general election on June 2 of 2024 promises to be a seminal moment for Mexican politics and society on a number of fronts, in particular, the race has made headlines as a contest between two women, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum on one hand, and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez on the other, promising to herald Mexico’s first female president. But the race is also a test of the staying power of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena Party, and whether its breakout success in 2018 can be translated into sustained influence over Mexican politics. In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Alma Caballero, Northern Latin America Managing Director at McLarty Associates. Together, they discuss the policy positions of the frontrunners, the challenges that will face either a Gálvez or a Sheinbaum government, and the influence President López Obrador is likely to wield over Mexico's political environment even after departing office. They also delve into questions of security, and the threat organized crime may pose to the electoral process next year.

En este episodio especial en español, Laura Delgado López, becaria visitante del programa de las Américas, se sienta a conversar con Victoria Valdivia Cerda, profesora de la Academia Nacional de Estudios Políticos y Estratégicos (ANEPE) y experta en política y derecho espacial. Ellas conversan sobre las distintas formas en que los países latinoamericanos enfocan su actividad espacial, incluyendo el desarrollo tecnológico, la cooperación internacional y el impacto de la competencia entre grandes potencias en los programas espaciales de la región. También, discuten el desarrollo de capacidades espaciales de doble uso, los riesgos de las armas antisatélite y cómo sus implicaciones van más allá del sector espacial.   In this special Spanish-language episode, Laura Delgado López, visiting fellow with the Americas Program, sits down with Victoria Valdivia Cerda, professor at the National Academy of Political and Strategic Studies (ANEPE) and expert in space policy and law. They discuss the different ways in which Latin American countries approach space activities, including technology development, international cooperation, and the impact of great power competition on regional space programs. They also discuss the development of dual-use space capabilities, the risks of anti-satellite weapons and how their implications go beyond the space sector.

On October 29, more than ten thousand elected positions, from local councils to departmental governors, throughout Colombia went up for election. The results confirmed predictions of setbacks for President Gustavo Petro’s governing Pacto Histórico coalition, which lost races in key cities such as Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali, in addition to several governorships. In this special episode, Juliana Rubio sits down with Sergio Guzmán, the Director of Colombia Risk Analysis. Together, they explore the key trends shaping the electoral environment, and delve into a couple of key races such as the Bogotá mayoral election. They also outline ways in which the Petro government may react, and prospects for the president to push forward his ambitious agenda within a more divided political context.

On Sunday, October 15, following a race that appeared neck-and-neck at several points, Daniel Noboa emerged victorious as Ecuador’s youngest elected president. Noboa’s victory over opponent Luisa González, the handpicked representative of former president Rafael Correa, signaled a desire for a change among the electorate, not only a departure from the outgoing Lasso government, but also a rejection of efforts to campaign off of nostalgia for the early Correa years. Yet whether Noboa, son of one of the country’s wealthiest businessmen, can deliver the kinds of novel change needed to pull Ecuador out of both a flagging economic situation and spiraling security crisis remains to be seen. In this special episode, Sebastián Hurtado, President and Founder of the Quito-based political risk consultancy Prófitas returns to 35 West to sit down with Christopher Hernandez-Roy. Together, they discuss the implications of Noboa's victory for Ecuador-U.S. relations, Noboa's agenda, and how he might plan to work with a divided legislature to deliver on key campaign promises.

En este episodio especial en español, Ryan C. Berg se sienta a conversar con Brenda Struminger, periodista y corresponsal de la Casa Rosada para Infobae. Ellos conversaron sobre la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales argentinas y las cuestiones claves en juego, especialmente los planes de cada candidato para resolver la crisis económica del país. También analizaron la relación bilateral entre Argentina y Estados Unidos, y lo que significarán las elecciones para los esfuerzos de Argentina por hacer frente a la creciente inseguridad. In this special Spanish-Language episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Brenda Struminger, a journalist and Casa Rosada correspondent for Infobae. They discuss Argentina's upcoming first-round presidential elections and the key issues at play, most notably the plans of each candidate to resolve Argentina's current economic crisis. They also dig into the bilateral relationship between Argentina and the United States, and what elections will mean for Argentina's efforts to tackle rising insecurity.

The level of economic integration that Mexico, the United States, and Canada have managed to achieve with one another is surely one of the defining success stories of the Western Hemisphere. Undoubtedly however, more needs to be done to realize the full potential of North American trade, especially as politically charged disputes over key issues from energy to automotives and agriculture risk undermining support within all three countries at a time when it is most sorely needed.   In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Orlando Pérez, Senior Counsel at TMI Abogados, and the principal negotiator of USMCA’s intellectual property chapter. Together, they discuss the genesis of USMCA, contemporary challenges to the agreement, and what needs to be done to encourage further trade integration in light of the recent 2023 U.S.-Mexico High-Level Economic Dialogue. They also investigate recent calls for extending USMCA to countries outside of North America, and lessons for future trade policy.

En este episodio especial en español, Juliana Rubio se sienta a conversar con Tamara Dávila, Tamara Dávila, psicóloga, feminista y activista política, y también una de las 222 presas políticas que fueron enviadas a los Estados Unidos el 9 febrero de este año.  Ellos conversaron sobre el activismo continuo de Tamara en favor de los derechos humanos y la democracia en Nicaragua, así como en el papel indispensable de las mujeres en los movimientos democráticos. Además la conversación se centró en las formas en que la represión política en Nicaragua se cruza con el género y otras identidades, y la necesidad de una presión sostenida contra el régimen. In this special Spanish-Language episode, Juliana Rubio sits down with Tamara Dávila, psychologist, feminist, and political activist, and one of the 222 political prisoners sent to the United States on February 9 of this year.  They delve into Tamara's continued activism on behalf of human rights and democracy in Nicaragua, as well as the indispensable role of women in democratic movements. They also outline the ways in which political repression in Nicaragua intersects with gender and other identities, and the need for sustained pressure against the regime.

On Sunday, August 20, Ecuadorians went to the polls to vote in a snap election clouded by political upheaval, violence, and uncertainty.  The campaign was marred especially by the assassination of vocal anticorruption candidate Fernando Villavicencio on August 9. With no candidate on August 20 securing the margin needed to win outright, Ecuador’s period of political uncertainty will stretch on further, and with it, important questions of security, democracy, and the future of U.S.-Ecuador relations. In this special episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Sebastián Hurtado, President and Founder of the Quito-based political risk consultancy Prófitas. Together, they unpack key trends in and around the first round election, including the performance of key candidates, the overlay of insecurity and entrenched corruption, and what to expect from the run-off on October 15. They also delve into the composition of the new National Assembly, and two key ballot initiatives on environmental issues.

On August 20, Guatemalans will head to the polls to elect their next president, marking the culmination of a long and fraught electoral process. The election will pit Sandra Torres, a longstanding political force heading one of the country’s most well-oiled political machines, against unexpected contender Bernardo Arevalo, who surged to claim second place in the June first round elections.  In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Will Freeman, Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Together, they set the stage for the coming elections, outlining the unexpected rise of Arevalo and his party, the policy positions of the two candidates, and the overarching context of Guatemala's evolving political environment and democracy. They also touch upon the implications of this elections for U.S.-Guatemala relations, as well as common threads between Guatemala and Ecuador, who will host elections on the same day.

Energy is an often overlooked, yet fundamental building block for economic growth and prosperity— especially in light of a shifting geopolitical context which has placed a premium on securing supply chains from disruption by malign actors and strategic competitors, there is a unique opportunity for North America as a bloc to rethink energy security. But the development of the North American natural gas industry has unfolded unevenly. While the United States has been quick to make the jump, even becoming a net energy exporter, Mexico in particular has been steadily decreasing its domestic production in favor of cheap, competitive U.S. imports. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Benigna Cortés Leiss, Nonresident Fellow in Latin American Energy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. Together, they discuss the obstacles facing Mexico's domestic natural gas sector, and how a focus on state-owned oil company PEMEX to the exclusion of other actors, has undermined the country's potential to capitalize on its other energy resources. They also discuss how a more robust Mexican gas industry could join the United States and Canada to seize on opportunities and ameliorate global energy insecurity prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

A shifting global narcotics market has brought on new challenges, with one of the most significant developments occurring in the global cocaine trade, where Europe has emerged as the preeminent destination for these illicit shipments. As drug trafficking organizations pivot their operations to take advantage of the high prices cocaine fetches on the European markets and low penalties for distributors, the Caribbean becomes a more important transshipment point. The Caribbean’s strategic geography, insufficient port security and interdiction assets, direct connections to Europe, along with criminal networks make this region an appealing transit point for drug trafficking organizations. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Rufus Ferdinand, Deputy Chief Operations Officer for the Joint Regional Communications Center (JRCC) at the Caribbean Community’s Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (CARICOM IMPACS). Together, they discuss the agency's priorities for confronting shifting criminal dynamics, improving intelligence cooperation, and enhancing technology adoption and training. They also delve into the second-order consequences of narcotics trafficking, especially firearms trafficking in and through the region.