Patrick Boyle On Finance

Check out Eight Sleep and unlock $200 off using my link: https://www.eightsleep.com/boyle/ British stocks closed at an all-time high this week, but as exciting as a new all-time high might sound, the British stock market has been lagging US and European stocks since the Brexit referendum.A recent report from Goldman Sachs says that the British economy is 5% smaller than it would have been had it remained in Europe.The IMF last week listed the UK in its Fiscal Monitor publication as one of four large economies that “critically need to take policy action to address fundamental imbalances between spending and revenues”.In this week's video we ask what has gone wrong in the UK, and can it all be pinned on Brexit?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle on YouTubePapers Mentioned In The Video:Dimson Marsh & Staunton Global Investment Returns Yearbook: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/in-focus/2024/global-investment-returns-yearbook.htmlBroadberry & Irwin - Labor productivity In Britain & America During The 19th Century: https://www.nber.org/papers/w10364Schroders - Six Charts on UK Equities: https://www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/intermediary/insights/six-charts-that-show-just-how-cheap-uk-equities-are/Rathbones - The Non Patriotic Case For UK Equities: https://www.rathbones.com/knowledge-and-insight/investment-update-non-patriotic-case-uk-equitiesMeghan Greene - Markets must stop comparing the UK and the US: https://www.ft.com/content/13579c61-5e1f-48b5-bb4d-2dc787444fb3Robert Armstrong - UK stocks are not all that cheap: https://www.ft.com/content/80d7f1de-dcb7-46c9-be5a-32b73c9c071e Support the Show.

Saudi Arabia’s plan to build a 170km long, 500m tall, mirrored city in the desert, filled with 9 million people has been curtailed to 2.4km long.According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia’s government had “scaled back its medium-term ambitions” for Neom, of which The Line is the most significant sub-project.The Saudi government had hoped to have 9M residents living in The Line by 2030, but this has been scaled back to fewer than 300,000, according to the report.The curtailment of plans comes as Saudi Arabia has not yet approved the 2024 budget for Neom, according to Bloomberg.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle on YouTube Support the Show.

Sales growth of electric vehicles has slowed dramatically this year.  Tesla delivered 20% fewer cars in the first quarter of 2024 than in the prior quarter, and BYD who was previously the world’s biggest EV maker saw sales decline more than 40% over the same period.BYD’s EV sales were still up 13% when compared to the same quarter a year earlier, while Tesla’s sales were down 9%. Both companies have been slashing prices to stimulate demand.While EV sales overall are still rising, they are rising at a slower rate than before. On top of that, the space has become more competitive as legacy automakers have introduced new EVs, and Chinese manufacturers have ramped up exports, overtaking Japan as the world's biggest vehicle exporter last year.Apple, who spent a decade and ten billion dollars on research, decided in February to end their efforts to build an electric car. The Apple car would have likely cost over $100 thousand dollars and would have had lower profit margins than their core consumer electronics business. Apple’s stock price rose on the announcement that they were abandoning their EV project.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle on YouTubeVideos Mentioned: James May:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQY-VeA87cM&t=307s Harry's Garage:  https://youtu.be/nZysvgm2_Aw?si=AzvFLM2Ta56HgRxl Support the Show.

Japan’s central bank raised interest rates last week for the first time in seventeen years, ending the world’s only remaining negative interest rate regime. The Bank of Japan also abandoned its yield curve control policy which has been in place since 2016, which saw it buying Japanese government bonds to keep longer term interest rates from rising.  It has however maintained bond buying at the same pace for now.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle on YouTube Support the show

After a decade of decline, bankruptcy filings around the world are on the rise.  In the United States, business bankruptcy filings rose more than 40 percent last year and non-business bankruptcy filings rose 16 percent.Bankruptcies in England and Wales just hit a 30-year high according to the latest figures.In Japan, corporate bankruptcies involving a total liability of 10 million Yen or more increased year on year by more than 35 percent.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleBook Link:Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy by Joseph Schumpeter: https://amzn.to/3IxYsc9Visit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle on YouTube Support the show

Elon Musk filed a lawsuit last week against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman, alleging the company’s deal with Microsoft compromised the start-up’s original mission.  Musk is seeking disgorgement, additional unspecified damages and specific performance. Let’s go through these claims one by one, see what legal experts have been saying about the case. We will also discuss the Open AI memo saying that the claims in this lawsuit suit stem from Elon’s regrets about not being involved with the company today and the emails OpenAI released showing that Musk initially supported the plan to create a for-profit entity and wanted a merger that would make Tesla its "cash cow." Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle on YouTubePapers Mentioned:Copy of the Legal Complaint: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYCUmwA4Xxpw/v0Ann Lipton Blog: https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/business_law/2024/03/spins-roulette-wheel-moelis-and-openai.htmlJeremy Tilman Blog: https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/contractsprof_blog/2024/03/musk-v-altman-the-breach-of-contract-claims.htmlMatt Levine Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-01/openai-isn-t-open-enough-for-elon Nilay Patel Article: https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/1/24087937/elon-musk-suing-openai-nightmare-1l-contracts-exam Support the show

Office mortgage default rates are rising around the world which could mean problems for the banks, insurance companies and pension funds who lent money to real estate investors.Let’s discuss the distressed sales of office buildings that have been happening over the last few months, why New York Community Bancorp is down more that 65% year to date, what banking regulators are saying about loan portfolios at large US banks and how banks are hedging their loan books. Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle on YouTube Papers Mentioned:Monetary Tightening, Commercial Real Estate Distress, and US Bank Fragility: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4413799The Secular Decline of Bank Balance Sheet Lending: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32176 Support the show

A new Harvard Business School study analyzed the impact of giving AI tools, to white collar workers at Boston Consulting Group.In the study, management consultants who were told to use Chat GPT when carrying out a set of consulting tasks were far more productive than their colleagues who were not given access the tool. Not only did AI-assisted consultants carry out tasks 25 per cent faster and complete 12 per cent more tasks overall, but their work was also assessed to be 40 per cent higher in quality than their unassisted peers.In today's video we look at the pros and cons of using AI at work.This Week's Sponsor:Get Magical AI for free and save 7 hours every week: https://getmagical.com/patrick Papers Mentioned:Harvard Paper: https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-9e74-42d6-a1c6-c72fb70c7282.pdfNicholas Carlini Blog: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/my-benchmark-for-large-language-models.htmlNicholas Carlini Quiz: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/llm-forecast/Effects of AI on Employment Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4527336Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.

As the global fight over manufacturing share and exports heats up, with surplus economies doubling down on exports, and deficit economies discussing protectionist strategies, the policies of the largest global economies are in clear conflict. Are trade wars likely, how do they work, and can the global economy regain balance?Michael Pettis Books:The Great Rebalancing: https://amzn.to/4bDIGKfTrade Wars Are Class Wars: https://amzn.to/3I2xHMHPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.

Adam Neumann has been trying to buy WeWork - the company he cofounded out of bankruptcy — allegedly with the help of the hedge fund manager Dan Loeb of Third Point.Neumann’s new real estate company "Flow" has sent a letter to WeWork requesting that they consider its takeover approach. Flow has already raised $350 million from the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, disclosed in the letter that Loeb’s Third Point would help finance a transaction.  The Financial Times contacted Third Point to verify their involvement in the deal and were told that the fund had only held “preliminary conversations with Flow and Adam Neumann about his ideas for WeWork.” They went on to say that they have made “no commitment to participate in any transaction.”Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the show

A Delaware court this week voided Elon Musk’s $55.8 billion dollar pay deal with Tesla. The voiding of these stock options erases about a quarter of Musk’s current wealth.The judgement came in response to a shareholder lawsuit launched by Richard Tornetta who owned nine shares in the company.  Judge Kathaleen McCormick found Tesla directors, who negotiated the pay package, were "perhaps starry eyed" due to Musk's "superstar appeal" and did not adequately inform shareholders.Elon Musk announced after the judgement that he would seek to reincorporate Tesla in Texas, a state that he believes could be more hospitable to his way of doing business than Delaware. We’ll dig into whether that would work near the end of the video.Roger Lowenstein - Origins of the Crash: https://amzn.to/3Ou3OIQPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.

Jesse Lauriston Livermore was a famed American stock trader known for his huge successes and devastating failures in the early 20th century. Starting as a "chalkboard boy" in a Boston brokerage, he became hugely wealthy as a trader first in "bucket shops" and then on the exchange in New York.  Livermore made millions in the Panic of 1907, the roaring 20's and in the 1929 market crash. His experiences are chronicled in the classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefèvre.Despite his legendary wins, Livermore went bankrupt numerous times and faced personal challenges, culminating in his tragic suicide in 1940. His legacy endures as an influential figure in financial history.Books:Jesse Livermore – The Man Who Sold America Short by Tom Rubython: https://amzn.to/3vWOrCAJesse Livermore – Worlds Greatest Stock Trader by Richard Smitten: https://amzn.to/47QO3TmJesse Livermore – Speculator King by Paul Sarnoff: https://amzn.to/47R9jIvReminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre: https://amzn.to/496874UHow to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore: https://amzn.to/4baKom1Online SourcesNew York Times Time Machine: https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/browserTime Magazine Archives: https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,847596-2,00.html Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_LivermorePatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.

Big startups are shutting down. More than 3000 private venture backed startups failed in the last year.  Of the startups raising money, 19% were funded at a lower valuation than in prior funding rounds. 38% of VCs disappeared from dealmaking last year and more than a quarter of a million workers at tech companies lost their jobs over the same period. US corporate bankruptcy filings closed out 2023 with the most filings since 2010. The year has been described as a mass extinction event for startups in the press.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the show

How much do you need to earn per year to be in the top 1%?  The answer to this question varies depending on if you are asking about the 1% in a given country or globally?In today's podcast we discuss how much you have to earn and how wealthy you have to be to be considered in the top one percent.  We discuss the careers and lifestyles of the one percent.  We look at inequality research to understand if inequality is actually growing as much as researchers like Thomas Piketty say it is.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.

How is China able to sell European drivers so many cheap cars? Customs data shows that Chinese EV shipments to the European Union have increased by 361% since 2021. All over the world, Chinese automakers are taking market share which is threatening European automakers.  Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.

Dozy Mmobuosi, the founder and CEO of Tingo Mobile has been accused by US Regulators of running a "staggering fraud."Tingo Mobile claimed to provide mobile phones to rural farmers in Nigeria and build a fintech super app. It quickly grew into a multibillion-dollar empire with a listing on New York’s Nasdaq stock exchange.Dr Dozy, the London-based tycoon attempted to buy the Premier League football team Sheffield United but struggled to prove his financial resources.It turns out that Mmobuosi’s businesses, as they were commonly understood, may never have existed. The SEC has accused the Nigerian businessman Mmobuosi Odogwu Banye – of perpetrating an ongoing fraud of “staggering” proportions.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.

In this week's podcast we look at the biggest financial news stories of the year, bank runs, The Elon Musk - Mark Zuckerberg fight, The Sam Bankman Fried Trial and much more.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.

Higher mortgage rates should be expected to depress the housing market, and the US has just seen one of the steepest rate increases in history.Would-be homebuyers are facing massive sticker shock, with measures of affordability worsening at the fastest pace on record.  The US real estate market has frozen up with the volume of new sales slowing at a faster pace than even during the aftermath of the global financial crisis.Does this mean that home prices are about to collapse?  Will we see a repeat of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the show

Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei describes himself as an anarcho- capitalist and says that he will take a chainsaw to the Argentine economy. He has campaigned that he will dollarize the economy and shut down the central bank.  What does this mean, and could it work?Argentina mostly exports agricultural commodities but used to be one of the wealthiest nations in the world. Decades of economic mismanagement have destroyed the economy and created a web of artificial price and exchange rate controls that have produced huge distortions.Milei is described as a libertarian economist whose ideological heroes are Milton Friedman, Robert Lucas, Murray Rothbard and Margaret Thatcher. Milei campaigned on promises of taking a chainsaw to the state, closing down the central bank and replacing the peso with the US dollar. But he has made a dramatic shift towards moderation since winning the election.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.

Elon Musk told advertisers who have halted spending on X due to his endorsement of an antisemitic post to “go f**k” themselves, in an unhinged interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin (who Elon calls Jonathan). Musk said that a recent exodus of big brands was “going to kill the company, and the whole world will know the advertisers killed the company”.Musk, who bought Twitter (which he has renamed X) for $46.5 billion dollars (including transaction costs) in October 2022, dismissed the idea that he wanted advertisers to return. “If somebody is going to try to blackmail with advertising, blackmail me with money, go f**k yourself,” he said. “Go. F**k. Yourself. Is that clear, I hope it is.”Twitter makes almost all of its revenue from advertising and is saddled with $13 billion dollars of debt.  Is Twitter about to go bankrupt?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the Show.