In Real Terms

The shift towards de-carbonization will undoubtedly be one of the most disruptive secular changes we have seen in many years, with the after affects felt in a number of disparate industries and sectors. While agricultural solutions to cleaner transportation fuels have been in place for years in the form of ethanol, practical and political considerations have limited the necessary expansion of this bio-fuel blend stock.  A shift towards drop-in bio-fuel alternatives such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel have the potential to radically alter the landscape of production agriculture, and more specifically the global edible oils markets.    Bill Lapp Bill Lapp is founder and president of Advanced Economic Solutions.  Bill graduated from Southern Illinois University in 1979 with a B.A. in Mathematics, and from Purdue University in 1981 with a M.S. in Agricultural Economics. He has over 30 years of experience analyzing and forecasting economic conditions and commodity markets, and has a wealth of experience providing comprehensive economic analysis of the major commodity markets. Bill has been a featured speaker at numerous national forums, including the restaurant industry’s semi-annual Supply Chain Management conference and the USDA Annual Outlook conference.  Prior to forming Advanced Economic Solutions, Bill was Chief Economist for ConAgra Foods. He has served on numerous boards, including the Kansas City Board of Trade, Kansas City Federal Reserve Board’s Center for the Study of Rural America, the Farm Foundation, and the Food and Agriculture Committee of the Omaha Chamber of Commerce. In addition, he is a member of USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service Advisory Board, and participates on the Harvard Business Industrial Economists’ Round-Table.

Projections for global growth in both incomes and population will undoubtedly stress the existing system of food and agriculture in ways that argue for innovative solutions. Technology has been at the forefront of this innovation with new and varied alternative sources of protein. IRT visits with Sharyn Murray of GFI to discuss the world of alternative proteins. Check out the blog page at Inrealterms.com Follow us on Twitter @in_real_terms Contact: steve@inrealterms.com Sharyn Murray Sharyn partners with investors and startups to increase investment in the alternative protein industry. Previously, she spent nearly a decade as a researcher and marketing professional at GCM Grosvenor, where she built expertise in the alternative investments industry. Sharyn earned a BA in economics and psychology from Northwestern University and is a CFA charterholder. She feels incredibly privileged to have a chance to devote her career to mitigating the challenges presented by industrial animal agriculture.

While much of the world faces an existential energy crisis partially driven by the growing need to de-carbonize, nuclear energy’s role in this transition has been somewhat marginalized. Security and safety concerns have long hampered the growth of nuclear here in the U.S., but a growing strain on the existing grid argues for a continued, if not increased, reliance on nuclear energy. IRT visits with Adam Stein senior nuclear analyst for The Breakthrough Institute to discuss the state of the nuclear power industry.  Adam Stein Adam Stein is a senior nuclear energy analyst at the Breakthrough Institute. His focus is on the technology, policy, risk, and economics of nuclear energy. He also studies complex interdisciplinary systems and decision-making in risk, resilience, and clean energy systems. He has spent sixteen years in the energy sector as a researcher and consultant. His work has been published by the Electric Power Research Institute, presented to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and contributed to many high-profile projects, including the first-ever license application for an advanced nuclear reactor in the U.S. Adam earned his Ph.D. and M.S. in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University where his research focused on changing the paradigm for emergency preparedness and response for nuclear facilities. Prior to studying at Carnegie Mellon, he completed an MBA from IUP, and studied Mechanical Engineering and Nuclear Engineering at the University of Pittsburgh.

Historically, high levels of inflation combined with low- to-negative real rates of interest have been catalysts for higher precious metal prices. However, the current level of moribund pricing across the precious metals group has been both frustrating and surprising to many long-time investors in the group.  IRT welcomes MKS PAMP Group analyst Nicky Shiels to discuss the state of the precious metals markets and the competition for investor attention in a world increasingly attracted to cryptocurrencies.  Nicky Shiels Nicky Shiels is Head of Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP Group, where her focus is to develop the precious metals marketing & research platform and to enhance sales & trading strategies. Prior to joining MKS, Nicky worked in the financial industry for almost 15 years as a Commodities  Strategist where she’s gained invaluable expertise in precious and base metals markets. During her recent tenure at Scotiabank, Nicky established and grew their metals strategist platform and was a member of their top-ranked Metals & Mining global research team.  Her expertise spans macro and capital markets, fundamental metals research, metals market forecasting and emerging industries such as electric vehicles & the energy transition. She has actively presented at key metals conferences and industry events and is a contributing voice in many media outlets such as the WSJ, FT, Reuters & Bloomberg. Nicky graduated from Yale University with a B.A majoring in Economics.

The post-pandemic state of U.S. agriculture is booming with both Corn and Soybean prices reaching decades year highs. While the term structure of prices reflects continued strong export demand, what has been most interesting is what is happening on the by-products side indicating strong bio-fuel related demand. Much of the recent discussion regarding de-carbonization has focused on EV versus non- EV, however strong battle lines are currently being drawn in the bio-fuels markets, particularly in the renewables and bio-diesel markets. IRT talks with Dr. Scott Irwin of The University of Illinois school of agriculture about the global grain markets and the potential pivot by some U.S. bio -fuel producers towards a variety of alternative fuel slates. We discuss the important implications that this shift will have on U.S. agriculture in the future.  Check out the blog page at Inrealterms.com Follow us on Twitter @in_real_terms Contact: steve@inrealterms.com   Dr. Scott H. Irwin Dr. Scott H. Irwin is a national and international leader in the field of agricultural economics. His research on agricultural markets is widely-cited by other academic researchers and is in high demand among market participants, policymakers, and the media. He is best known for his work on the impact of speculation in commodity markets. Irwin has published numerous academic articles on the subject and has been called upon to provide testimony before the U.S. Congress, the OECD, and the CFTC, as well as publishing op-ed articles in the New York Times and Washington Times. He is also a well-known innovator in the development of agricultural extension programs that have helped hundreds of thousands of farmers in Illinois, the U.S., and throughout the world make more informed production, marketing, and financial decisions. His vision and leadership have been the driving force behind the award-winning farmdoc project at the University of Illinois since its inception in 1999. Irwin is a member of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) and was named a Fellow in 2013, the highest honor bestowed by the Association. He has also received the Distinguished Group Extension Program Award (three times), the Quality of Communication Award, and Quality of Research Discovery Award from the AAEA.

While the narrative on the current energy transition is heavily influenced by the ongoing emphasis on ESG, the realities of a growing global economy that is still dependent on fossil fuels paints a much different picture. IRT sits down with one of the oil industry’s leading experts: Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners to discuss the risks and opportunities in today’s rapidly changing energy environment Check out the blog page at Inrealterms.com Follow us on Twitter @in_real_terms Contact: steve@inrealterms.com   Dan Pickering   Dan Pickering is the Chief Investment Officer of Pickering Energy Partners (PEP). PEP manages client assets via energy strategies focused primarily on public markets and private equity. Prior to PEP, Mr. Pickering served as the President of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. and Chief Investment Officer of TPH Investment Management. Dan has spent 26 years as an energy portfolio manager, researcher and analyst, first at Fidelity Investments (where he managed ~$1 billion of energy sector funds), then as Head of Research at Simmons & Company and as the founding partner of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Dan currently serves as the portfolio manager of the PEP Energy Equity Opportunities Fund and on the Investment Committee of PEP’s energy co-investment and private equity strategies. He also serves on the Advisory Board’s for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co, the Energy ESG Council, the Houston CFA Society, as well as the Board of Trustees for Texas Children’s Hospital and the Texas Children’s Hospital Foundation. Dan grew up in Missouri, has a BS in Petroleum Engineering from the Missouri School of Science and Technology and an MBA from the University of Chicago.

The integration of EV’s into the global transportation fleet makes clear that all roads lead to lithium as the primary source of battery material required for more vehicle electrification The procurement and processing of lithium will be at the forefront of challenges given today’s electrification pivot. IRT speaks with Joe Lowry of Global Lithium on how problematic the supply situation may become and its impact on the lithium, automaker and battery manufacturing industries as well as its potential long -term implications for price. Check out the blog page at Inrealterms.com Follow us on Twitter @in_real_terms Contact: steve@inrealterms.com   Joe Lowry With over two decades of “Big 3” lithium experience living and working in the United States, Japan and China, Joe has been dubbed by industry players as “Mr. Lithium”. He is considered one of the world’s leading lithium experts.  Involved in supplying raw materials to the lithium-ion battery space since the beginning of the industry in Japan, few have the depth of knowledge and contacts. In addition to his role as MD of Asia Pacific for FMC Lithium (now Livent); Joe also served as President of a Japanese based battery materials JV and President of FMC Zhangjiagang Specialty Chemicals, LTD in China Joe hosts “The Global Lithium Podcast” available on Anchor, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other leading podcast apps.

The massive surge in renewable power generation, combined with the recent events in Texas and elsewhere, highlights the need for long-duration battery storage.  Vanadium Redox Batteries provide one such solution, and their usage is growing in China and elsewhere. IRT talks with industry expert Terry Perles about the potential for this technology to address some of the problems associated with intermittent power sources, as well as its potential applications in certain EV technologies.  Check out the blog page at Inrealterms.com Follow us on Twitter @in_real_terms Contact: steve@inrealterms.com   Terry Perles  Terry Perles has more than 32 years of experience in the vanadium industry in roles including sales, marketing, strategic planning and senior management.   Mr. Perles joined US Steel Corporation in 1980 as a Construction Management Engineer and held assignments at the company’s steel mills in Homestead and Clairton, Pennsylvania. In 1988, Mr. Perles joined vanadium producer Stratcor and during his 20-year tenure held positions in sales, marketing and senior management.  In 1998, he was appointed Vice President of Sales & Marketing and charged with the responsibility to manage global vanadium sales to the steel, titanium and chemical industries.  Mr. Perles also chaired the company’s strategic planning committee. By 2006, the EVRAZ Group had acquired controlling interest in Stratcor and Mr. Perles joined East Metals S.A. of Lugano Switzerland, the trading arm of the EVRAZ Group.  During this time EVRAZ Group operated vanadium assets in Russia, South Africa, Czech Republic and the USA, and Mr. Perles directed sales and marketing of the corporation’s global vanadium business. In March 2010, Mr. Perles established TTP Squared, Inc., a metals industry consulting firm serving both producers and consumers of vanadium chemicals and alloys.  In December 2010, Mr. Perles established MoTiV Metals, LLC, a Pennsylvania corporation acting as a North America sales agent for metal producers supplying vanadium, molybdenum and titanium alloys and chemicals to steel, titanium alloy and chemical industries.   In May 2012 Mr. Perles joined the senior management team of Atlantic Ltd., owners and operators of the Windimurra vanadium project in Western Australia. In 2019 Mr Perles and a group of investors formed US Vanadium LLC for the purpose of acquiring Evraz Stratcor Inc and the vanadium production facility in Hot Springs Arkansas.,US. Vanadium now operates the facility in Hot Springs producing high purity vanadium oxides and downstream chemicals.  Mr. Perles is a non-executive board member at US Vanadium. Mr. Perles holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Virginia and an MBA from the University of Pittsburgh.  He served as a member of the International Titanium Association board of directors from 2005 to 2009.  He has been an active member of the Vanadium International Technical Committee (VANITEC) since 2004 and served as Chairman of the VANITEC Market Development Committee from 2012-2014. Mr. Perles has made more 30 presentations on the vanadium market at key conferences in North America, Asia, Europe and India over the past ten years and is recognized globally as an expert in the field of vanadium market fundamentals.  

The risk-adjusted returns for Midwest Farmland have outperformed almost every major asset class over the past 30 years, a fact not well known to most in the investment community. We look at some of the specific risks endemic to farmland ownership, discussing both row crops and specialty/permanent crops. The Podcast also looks at some geographical areas which might present some future opportunities. Check out the blog page at Inrealterms.com Follow us on Twitter @in_real_terms Contact: steve@inrealterms.com   Murray Wise Murray Wise has over 40 years of experience in global agriculture and land markets. During the farm recession of the mid-eighties, he saw the opportunity in farm asset management and pioneered the notion of agriculture as an investable asset class. With a core client group formed by institutional investors and pension funds, Murray managed one of the largest global portfolios of agricultural land. Murray’s entrepreneurial spirit has defined his career; he founded Westchester in 1986 after acquiring the Champaign, IL division of the Sandage Companies. Murray transformed Westchester Group, Inc. from a small farmland investment firm into an industry-leading agricultural land asset management company. In 2010, Murray and the team sold the agricultural asset management division of WGI to TIAA-CREF. The Iowa farm real estate and management office, MWA Capital, and the land auction division of Westchester Group, Inc. subsequently formed Murray Wise Associates, LLC.

RT looks at the Platinum market where the price has been under pressure for the better part of a decade due to various factors including “dieselgate” as well as a persistent supply overhang. The podcast examines the relative pricing of the metal versus Palladium and the recent emergence of substitution from Palladium back to Platinum among auto catalyst manufacturers. The show then discusses the outlook for platinum going forward, including its “green” potential as the world transitions away from carbon -based transportation and power generation. Check out the blog page at Inrealterms.com Follow us on Twitter @in_real_terms Contact: steve@inrealterms.com   Dr. David Jollie Dr. David Jollie is Head of Sales and Market Insight at Anglo American Platinum.  Before joining Anglo American in 2016, he spent five years as an analyst and as head of research at Mitsui Precious Metals, covering all of the precious metals globally.  He also previously spent more than twelve years working at Johnson Matthey, where he undertook a variety of roles, all focused on the platinum group metals.  He began working there as a development chemist focusing on diesel exhaust emissions before moving into the precious metals marketing business as a market analyst covering the demand side.  For the last four years at Johnson Matthey he wrote their leading reviews of supply and demand in the platinum group metal market, traveling frequently to meet with end users and producers.  He has a degree in chemistry from the University of Oxford and a doctorate in chemistry from the University of Nottingham in the United Kingdom.    

Today IRT looks into the world of Minor Metals with one of the industry’s long -standing participants and advocates. Anthony describes his experiences over the course of his 40 -year career in the minor metals industry reflecting on some of the technological advances he has witnessed and their effects on the pricing and commercial flows of metal. The discussion is particularly appropriate when looking at today’s metals environment which makes certain underlying assumptions based on a number of nascent technological innovations.  Check out the blog page at Inrealterms.com Follow us on Twitter @in_real_terms Contact: steve@inrealterms.com   Anthony Lipmann Born in 1957 and educated at Pembroke College, Oxford, Anthony entered the metals industry in 1979 working for M.C. Brackenbury & Co, one of the last partnerships on the London Metal Exchange. He then worked for a number of companies in the metal trade, gaining experience in copper concentrates, ferro alloys, alumina and a wide range of minor metals, before re-booting the family business in 1993. Lipmann Walton & Co Ltd describes itself as a sweet-shop of minor metals – a place where end users know they will find a wide range of the less common minor metals, scraps, alloys and compounds for use in super alloys, electronics, glass, catalysts and steel applications. Anthony was Chairman of the MMTA between 2003-06 and has also written widely on the subject of metals and metal trading.    

The convergence of Central Bank activity, ever-increasing deficit spending, and low to negative real interest rates have brought the investment landscape to a critical juncture. Join two commodity experts with over 50 years of combined asset management experience as they explore the market’s pivot towards real assets. In Real Terms will deliver expert assessments on the sometimes esoteric and often idiosyncratic fundamentals impacting a wide range of industries. REAL topics will include, but not limited to: energy/power, renewables, timberland, agriculture, base/precious metals, real estate, cryptocurrency. Check out the blog page at Inrealterms.com Follow us on Twitter @in_real_terms Contact: steve@inrealterms.com