Future Commerce

DoorDash shoppers come to the app with a need, not a shopping list, and that makes them unusually loyal and unusually open to discovery. Katie Daleo, General Manager of CPG Ads at DoorDash, joins Phillip and Alicia to talk about how brands can plan for moments instead of audiences, why DoorDash pursued Alliance for Audited Media incrementality certification, and what changes when commerce media is measured on orders and intent instead of impressions.Plus, we dig into the newly launched Brand Center, which turns what Dashers see on the shelf into real-time availability and substitution data, why brand and performance marketing are converging again, and why Katie sees DoorDash as "local commerce at scale."The Moment Is the New DemographicKey takeaways:DoorDash's incremental ROAS methodology earned AAM incrementality certification, and Katie says partners are seeing 30%+ incremental sales lift on average.Discovery is up for grabs. In some categories, unbranded DoorDash searches (think: "beer") drive 10% of orders, so brands have to win the shopper who hasn't picked a brand yet.Videos under six seconds perform best, and placement matters: what works on the homepage can get in the way on a product page when someone just wants to check out.The funnel collapses inside the app. Awareness, consideration, and conversion can happen in a single session, so offsite creative and in-app click-through need to work as one journey.Brand Center turns the shelf into a data source. Brands can now see on-shelf availability, which SKUs actually make it onto DoorDash, how their product content shows up, and where shoppers go when an item is substituted.Out-of-stocks are a loyalty test. Roughly 40% of shoppers ask for a refund rather than accept a substitute, which tracks with the third of shoppers who arrive with a specific item in mind."If you can find a solution that works for the consumer, it will work for the brand, in which case it will work for DoorDash." — Katie Daleo"Data is the currency we have with CPG partners." — Katie Daleo"You can now do the full funnel in like three minutes." — Katie Daleo"Any media should be showing impact, but the actual metric or the methodology may need to be different." — Katie Daleo"I think of DoorDash as a platform that allows you to do local commerce at scale." — Katie DaleoAssociated Links:Episode 474: Commerce Media's Day Two: The Agentic Shelf and the Measurement ReckoningThe Senses: The Advertising Week Mid-Week Dispatch“Vertical Dramas” and the New Era of Commerce MediaAd Infinitum: Retail Media is The Final BossEpisode 452: LIVE at Shoptalk Spring: Retail Media Confessions, Hype Cycles, and the Creator ReckoningThe Future of the Funnel (Live from K:LDN 2026)Insiders 224: Non-Determinism and the Death of Performance MarketingInsiders 238: Where Were You When the Monoculture Returned?The Senses: Quick Commerce's God ComplexEven TikTok is an Ad Network NowCheck out Future Commerce on YouTubeCheck out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and printSubscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce worldListen to our other episodes of Future CommerceHave any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Halloween is now America’s second-largest consumer holiday, surpassing Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day in total spend, especially in categories like home decor. From the high street, the UK is catching up fast due to the rise of community-driven events, third spaces, and niche internet communities.Melissa Minkow, Global Director of Retail Strategy & Insights at CI&T, joins Phillip and Alicia from London to share what Halloween looks like on the other side of the Atlantic. Melissa explains why UK Halloween is getting “Americanized,” how algorithms shape our real-world rituals, and why fandom keeps stretching the season.Spooky Season Goes GlobalKey takeaways:UK Halloween spend is expected to hit £705M, driven mostly by Gen Z and millennials. Meanwhile, US Halloween spend is projected to reach $13.5B, with households spending an average of $285. UK Halloween isn’t a carbon copy of America’s. In the UK, community lives in third spaces like pubs and transit, not front porches.The retail calendar is stretching earlier, largely driven by fandoms inflating moments into months of licensing, drops, and ticketed events.“People want the moment when it is the moment.” — Melissa Minkow“There’s no temperance in the algorithm.” — Phillip Jackson“I have often wondered… if I ever was actually a sneakerhead or if performance marketing and algorithms made me one.” — Phillip JacksonIn-Show Mentions:Catch up on Ep. 484: Aubrey Horowitz of Home Depot, “We Plan Halloween 3 Years in Advance”Deloitte’s 2026 Halloween surveyTreatonomics: Morning Consult x Hershey’s research on the new Halloween calendarChanté Joseph, “Is Having a Boyfriend Embarrassing Now?” (Vogue)Kate Berlant on Good HangShoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance CapitalismGet tickets to VISIONS Summit, February 10, 2027 at MoMAAssociated Links:Spooky Commerce: What Halloween Shopping Trends Tell Us About Modern CultureConsumers are Overindulging on Halloween. Disney is Meeting the Moment.Aug-tober is Here (The Senses)Memory Morphing: How Media Reshapes Recall and Taints Nostalgia (Ep. 334)Where Were You When the Monoculture Returned?Check out Future Commerce on YouTubeCheck out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and printSubscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce worldListen to our other episodes of Future CommerceHave any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Stretched wallets are still spending. Deloitte projects up to 4.8% growth in holiday spending this year, driven mostly by price of goods rather than volume of sales. Shoppers say they feel stretched, yet they keep spending. Brian McCarthy, a principal in Deloitte’s strategy and analytics practice, joins Phillip and Alicia to forecast this year’s holiday spending. Brian explains why behavior outweighs sentiment, how AI shopping agents are changing the way people find products, and why physical stores still bring in most of the new holiday dollars.The Store StaysKey takeaways:Deloitte projects 4% to 4.8% holiday growth, driven mostly by price rather than volume.Behavior beats sentiment: anxious shoppers still spend, just more strategically.Value-seeking is a lasting change: shoppers now weigh durability, quality and private label.To show up in AI shopping agents’ picks, brands need detailed, well-structured product data.Digital sales are growing, but in-store sales still bring in most new holiday dollars. “Behavior holds stronger than sentiment when it comes to holiday.” — Brian McCarthy“We’re seeing that sentiment shift not towards spending less, but towards spending more strategically, more thoughtfully, more intelligently.” — Brian McCarthy“We hear ‘value’ and we immediately think cost savings. But… that’s not always the case.” — Alicia Esposito“From tradition, nostalgia – holiday spending is still dominantly in store.” — Brian McCarthyIn-Show Mentions:Just released: Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail SurveyCheck out Deloitte’s first Halloween studyReview Deloitte’s 2026 Back-to-School SurveyAssociated Links:The 2025 Holiday Reality Check (Ep. 429, with Deloitte)The BFCM Sprint: Last-Minute Tips and Tactics from DeloitteSeparating Real Signals from the Noise (Ep. 480)BFCM 2025: We Give Thanks for Couch CommerceAgentic Commerce and the eCommerce Site’s New Existential CrisisThe Concierge Economy: Understanding AI's True Role in the Shopping ExperienceThe Alpha Effect: How Gen Alpha is Redefining Back-to-School SpendingMember Brief: Return on Experience and the New KPIs of Store DesignCheck out Future Commerce on YouTubeCheck out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and printSubscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce worldListen to our other episodes of Future CommerceHave any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Aubrey Horowitz, Merchant of Decorative Holiday at The Home Depot, is on the show to talk about the viral skeleton that set the Halloween decor bar 12 feet high. Aubrey shares a behind-the-curtain look at how Home Depot designs its seasonal assortment for America’s front lawns, shaped by a vocal community of haunters who shop earlier and earlier each year. Plus, we walk through Skelly’s ground-up development with suppliers, the future of app-controlled animatronics, the moving target of nostalgia (the ’90s are vintage now, but won’t be for long), and why the best feedback loop in retail is a customer base that never stops posting.Icons Like Skelly Market ThemselvesKey takeaways:Halloween enthusiasts finish planning by August, pulling seasonal demand into summer.Haunting is a mindset more shoppers are embracing. Home Depot is meeting growing demand by building collections year over year based on public feedback.Nostalgia never goes out of style, but which era defines the trend keeps shifting. Skelly brought haunted-house-scale giants to retail and turned yard decor into a creative medium.“You can all shop at the same retailer, and then come out with a completely unique and  completely different haunted yard scene.” — Aubrey Horowitz“How do I deliver a product that you may not know that you want yet, while also delivering the thing that you’re asking for?” — Aubrey Horowitz“In many ways the front yard is like the homepage of people’s lives.” — Brian Lange“We just had no idea that [Skelly] would take off and that people would wanna dress him up for all the holidays and leave him up year round.” — Aubrey HorowitzIn-Show Mentions:Skelly, The Home Depot’s 12-foot skeletonAssociated Links:Insiders 210: Spooky Commerce: What Halloween Shopping Trends Tell Us About Modern CultureConsumers are Overindulging on Halloween. Disney is Meeting the Moment.The Senses: Aug-tober is HereInsiders 239: The “Quiet Season” Fallacy: Why Waiting for Black Friday is Destroying Your Retail BusinessField Notes: Holiday Edition: Spirit ChristmasInsiders 040: Nostalgia as a Security BlanketEpisode 426: The 13th Month of RevenueEpisode 312: Barbenheimer: Nostalgia, Retail, Recall, and RelevanceJoin us at VISIONS Summit, November 3 at MoMACheck out Future Commerce on YouTubeCheck out Future Commerce+ for exclusive content and save on merch and printSubscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce worldListen to our other episodes of Future CommerceHave any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.