Small Time Bets: The Only Annual Podcast

In this special year-end episode, Jonathan and Douglas look into the crystal ball for 2026 before facing the music on their 2025 calls. We’re shaking up the format this year: 2026 Big Bets come first, followed by the definitive marking of last year’s homework.Part 1: The 2026 Predictions 🔮We break down our high-conviction bets for the year ahead across five key pillars:​The Markets: Will the momentum continue, or are we due for a correction?​AI: Moving from "efficiency" to "autonomy" - what happens next?​Tech: The hardware and platforms set to dominate the next 12 months.​Society: Cultural shifts, the "proof of personhood" movement, and beyond.​Politics: Geopolitics, trade, and the evolving landscape of the Trump administration.Part 2: Marking the 2025 Homework 📝We revisit our 2025 predictions to see who actually came out on top. It was a year of "shadow wars" and "Trump bumps." Highlights include:​The Big Hits: We correctly called the "shadow war" on European subsea infrastructure and the rise of a new micromobility category - the "Enclosed Quadricycle".​The AI Shift: Our prediction on AI legal advice eroding prices hit home, with major platforms slashing costs by 60%.​Market Volatility: While we were directionally right on the "up and to the right" market, the "Liberation Day" tariff crash in April 2025 kept us from hitting our ambitious Dow and S&P targets.​Corporate Winners: Alphabet was a standout, soaring over 60% as Waymo moved toward independence with a $100B+ valuation.​The "Misses": From the Ukraine stalemate to the delayed launch of GTA 6 and the "iPhone Fold," we own up to where our timing was off.Who won the 2025 crown, and who is doubling down for 2026? Tune in to find out!

Jonathan and Douglas are back with their diamond hands and their crystal balls! Join them for their annual predictions podcast, featuring 12 predictions each for the year ahead and a look back at their 2024 track record. Will they be right again? Tune in and find out!

Jonathan and Douglas check in to see where their 2023 predictions landed; and then look ahead to very specific 2024 predictions covering tech, politics, markets and mashed peas.

This is the trailer and episode 0 for “Tech Back Control”, a podcast about taking back control from technology, using technology.  We're entering into an era where generational disruptions in technology have the potential to shift power back into the hands of the people and the planet. AI is giving super powers to the masses; open digital money is uprooting the legacy financial system; the 3rd iteration of the web means an internet run by the people, for the people; and a 4th industrial revolution might help us make food, buildings and everything without killing the planet at the same time. There's some hope hiding in plain sight and I'm going on a journey to find and explore it.  To find out more, follow on Twitter or join the Discord or check out other links in the link tree  https://linktr.ee/techbackcontrol

We review our 2022 predictions, see what surprises surfaced along the way and share our 2023 predictions. Also: A Year in the Markets and the equivalent look back and forward in Web3. Links we mentioned: Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu We have a merch store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop Our TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets Our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

After 5 weeks away Jonathan and Douglas talk ChatGPT, a month of Musk-Twitter, provide a proper summary of FTX, and a roundup of NFT news. Links we mentioned: Making ChatGPT run a fictional chat room: https://twitter.com/gfodor/status/1599233429941686273?t=MC8EmsA3ahzuSXj4wFDqAA&s=09 Making ChatGPT pretend to be Linux: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/12/openais-new-chatbot-can-hallucinate-a-linux-shell-or-calling-a-bbs/ FTX spreadsheet comment re “hidden, poorly internally labled ‘fiat@’ account” https://d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net/production/7ab64a3b-6ce0-47cc-96ac-5e2d2a8c5d6c.png CZ explains SBF was lobbying against Binance: https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1589374530413215744?s=46&t=cApjraFG0hlMNEYl4zz4zA A motion-activated rechargeable light strip: https://amzn.to/3UPethO Coinbase NFTs subject to Apple’s 30% in-app purchase fee, supposedly levied on ethereum gas: https://twitter.com/CoinbaseWallet/status/1598354819735031809?t=kov-CcyFM--3RJyWRRPbDQ&s=09 Christie’s NFTs: https://nft.christies.com/auctions/next-wave-the-miami-edit  Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu We have a merch store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop Our TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets Our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

Tech is down and crypto is up as rates rise in the US and UK. But 0.75% has different meanings on either side of the Atlantic in our market update. Then this week we go deep on autonomous vehicles because suddenly everyone’s a critic. Triggered by a harmless TechCrunch article. This Week in Crypto looks at Meta’s embrace of arweave for NFTs on Insta; and in NFTs we cover the Meebits MB1.1 relaunch, clarify which NFT projects survive, and make sense of Art Gobblers. And FYI we’re going dark for a month, so stay warm. Links we mentioned: The article “It’s time to admit self-driving cars aren’t going to happen” by TechCrunch’s Darrell Etherington: https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/27/self-driving-cars-arent-going-to-happen/amp/ Elon promising self driving “next year” supercut: https://youtu.be/o7oZ-AQszEI SunGod sunglasses: https://www.sungod.co/?r=PPoVcICTbd Instagram announces meaningful NFT marketplace: https://twitter.com/Meta/status/1587929277864910849?s=20&t=jjrYpyRMNNyNgSUsrSdYZQ The Meebits relaunch: https://turnon.meebits.app/ Art Gobblers: https://artgobblers.com/ Small Time Bets across TikTok, YouTube, Twitter, Discord, merch and more: https://linktr.ee/smalltimebets

We begin with a market update in which tech is down but overall things are up, followed by Twitter boosts Doge, McDonald’s doing well, Chick-fil-A better. Transhumanism is this week’s topic, it mostly means modding your body. We consider some examples and impacts. This Week in Crypto we look at what internet infrastructure web3 might decentralise, but then ask why and how, but also again why? And in NFTs this week we are impressed by Reddit doing a much more successful NFT bubble within the collapsed bubble of the current bear market. Media we mentioned: The Culture series by Iain M Banks The Three-Body Problem by Liu Cixin Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark Hacking Darwin: Genetic Engineering and the Future of Humanity by Jamie Metzl The Huberman Lab podcast The GreenPill podcast Links we mentioned: Zoe, the personalised gut science product: https://joinzoe.com/signup Free Deliveroo Plus for a year for Amazon Prime users: https://deliveroo.co.uk/amazon-prime Deliveroo new user £10 credit: https://roo.it/douglasa1357 Decentralised YouTube Odysee: https://odysee.com/ Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu We have a merch store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop Our TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets Our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

We begin with a crypto market update, amid stocks volatility and with crypto alarmingly low. Solana has an off day, BNB bridge hacked, Celsius doxxes all their users, and ShapeShift decentralises further. In NFTs this week, Apple fees, OpenSea analytics and Anthony Hopkins. Also because we have a soft spot for 10KTF, the latest physical products of Wagmi-san. Links we mentioned: Iconomi copytrading with the Small Time Bets portfolio: https://www.iconomi.com/asset/SMALLTIMEBETS?viewPublic=true Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu We have a merch store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop Our TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets Our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

Because we’re based in the UK we can’t not talk about the last 45 days. Then it’s this week / month in the markets and whether this is the right time to buy stocks or sell your house or something. We return to the tech beat with a lookback at the following events: Google Pixel 2022, Surface, Meta’s Quest Pro. Then we ask if metaverse hype has any substance. Links we mentioned: Shark cordless vacuum: https://amzn.to/3CW3Sui Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu We have a merch store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop Our TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets Our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

This week: algo-curated content, a markets update, the UK’s diminished budget, and Patagonia not for sale. This week in crypto the SEC claims jurisdiction and in NFTs the season one finale of 10KTF. Links we mentioned: The podcast Your Undivided Attention on TikTok: https://www.humanetech.com/podcast/bonus-addressing-the-tiktok-threat A far infrared heating panel by Kiasa: https://amzn.to/3RbzgKo Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu We have a merch store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop Our TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets Our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

This week, bad tech. How hyperloop, Starship international flights and Elon’s tunnels just make zero sense, as much as we want them to. Also a 170km long city in Saudi - The Line. After a markets update, the Merge! How it went, what’s next for ethereum. Do Kwan’s arrest, OFAC clarification on Tornado Cash, and Wall St launches a centralised crypto exchange. In NFTs, Starbucks announces Odyssey NFT rewards and OG.art becomes a platform for dynamic art, Jadu avatars for AR. Links we mentioned: Neom’s The Line: https://youtu.be/0kz5vEqdaSc Gritin silk eye mask: https://amzn.to/3UjpU20 Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu We have a merch store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop Our TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets Our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

Some opening remarks on the Queen, duty and continuity. Then this week, getting through the winter: with storage heaters, radiator insulation, Bitcoin mining, infrared wallpaper, zero emission boilers. Energy price caps and unintended consequences. The Apple Special Event: Severance, Apple Watch, Ultra, iPhone 14 camera, Satellite SOS, the Apple “make nothing bad happen” proposition, Dynamic Island, AirPods Pro 2nd gen. This week in Crypto and the Markets: a slight upturn, Cosmos and Balancer quietly outperforming, Merge next week, USDC flipping Tether, Binance delisting USDC, Coinbase funding lawsuit against Treasury re Tornado Cash, Vitalik’s book, Gitcoin. This week in NFTs, Flow partners with Ticketmaster, Jonathan Mann gets to 5000 daily songs, Jadu drops AVA avatars for AR. Links we mentioned: NexGen infrared wallpaper https://nexgenheating.com/product?proid=l9Mtfj The Tepeo zero emission boiler: https://tepeo.com/thezeb AI Generative Art is bonus content on our YouTube channel: Dall.e 2: https://openai.com/dall-e-2/ Stable Diffusion: https://creator.nightcafe.studio/stable-diffusion-image-generator Midjourney: https://www.midjourney.com/home/ Scandinovia stackable plastic tumbler cups: https://amzn.to/3RC17o6 Jonathan Mann’s 5000th song: https://youtu.be/C1lKjIV58RE Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu We have a merch store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop Our TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets Our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

This week is an AMA on: if the Apple premium is worth it, electric vehicles vs the grid, the Inverse Kramer ETF; and where to put savings at a time like this. After a markets update we cover crypto AMA questions including: partners’ attitudes to crypto, which centralised exchanges are okay, best and worst ever investments, the DYDX bot test; and will ethereum drop post merge. We close with NFTs and a look at a credible and already popular metaverse application: live music events Recorded at BrewDog Waterloo Podcast studio. Links we mentioned: Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu We have a merch store: https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop Our TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets Our YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ Give Directly: https://www.givedirectly.org/uk/ Ariana Grande’s concert in Fortnite, August 2021, highlights: https://youtu.be/gGYElBtjytU

This week we talk food production and try to make sense of a world where obesity and food waste sit alongside food banks, shortages and riots. Today’s grain mostly comes from four companies. It’s abundant, subsidised and cheaper than the alternative, but it depletes our soil, decimates diversity; and producing food accounts for nearly a quarter of global GHG emissions. Are lab-grown meat and carbs the answer? In Crypto and the Markets this week the Fed’s Jackson Hole statement (more rate rises) knocked everything back into red, we ask what really drives inflation and what’s the unspoken goal. Also: “is crypto a ponzi? Is it useful?”. In NFTs the redemption of Pudgy Penguins, Zuk unstuck, and properties of the metaverse revisited. Links we mentioned: Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu On Government Cheese: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_cheese Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse selfie: https://www.facebook.com/4/posts/pfbid036rRnizKxuw9CwVftTZKTikmGZixWidyrEWGLaZg4Sm6jDFdPRPdn6Z5UJG5yeXRWl BrewDog Waterloo: https://www.brewdog.com/uk/brewdog-waterloo

Back after 6 weeks we talk fast and cover lots. Upsets in US and UK politics against a backdrop of rising energy prices, inflation, strikes and recession. Meanwhile Samsung releases more folding phones and Jonathan got a Steam Deck. In Crypto and the Markets, we unpick the 10% stocks rally and ask if the Merge will boost Ethereum prices. The US Treasury’s shutdown of Tornado Cash is the main news of the day. We also take a speed run through: Coinbase, Tesla BTC, Celsius and the “Solana hack”. In NFT news we begin by asking if NFTs are over. Then a late sidebar on Biden’s cleantech bill, and Jonathan explains how he made an NFT for his wedding. In our speed round we cover: Amazon.eth, Opensea layoffs, and Yuga news. And we return to the latest adventures of Wagmi-san in New Tokyo. Links we mentioned: Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu Atlantic article about Europe’s misplaced schadenfreude as the American Empire wobbles: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/08/europe-america-military-empire-decline/670960/ Family-run Malaysian cakes and pastries in west London: https://pandanbakery.com/ The US Treasury announces Tornado Cash sanction: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0916 Wagmi-san walks around a wet 3D New Tokyo: https://twitter.com/10ktfshop/status/1550240069159571456?s=21&t=K92xiF_HZBks6AKGqerL9A BrewDog’s new Waterloo venue: https://www.brewdog.com/uk/bars/uk/brewdog-waterloo

Electric vehicles past, present, future - and what this means for car manufacturers. What of hydrogen? Who wins self-driving? And what’s Apple up to? In Crypto and the Markets: Winter. How long does this last and what might Spring look like? Also the underwhelming metaverse and an EU regulatory milestone. In NFTs this week we use a cork board plus some string to identify the key players in NFT. And conclude NFTs may behave more like luxury goods. Links we mentioned: Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu UK digital mortgage broker: https://trussle.com/

The end of VC-subsidised perks like cheap Ubers and half price groceries now that money isn’t cheap anymore, also the sub-15 minute delivery segment. Then in Crypto & the Markets we ask how long this low lasts. Also: a Solana phone. In NFTs this week, NYC roundup, two 10KTF surprises, eBay buys into NFTs, as does Uniswap. Doodle partners with Pharrell Williams for Doodles Records. We ask whether everything has a Greater Fool dynamic from the outside, or just NFTs. Also Yuga finally rebuts conspiracy theories around the Apes. Links we Mentioned: Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu The End of the Millennial Lifestyle Subsidy: https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/06/uber-ride-share-prices-high-inflation/661250/ From at least 2018, VC Fund My Life: http://www.vcfml.com/ UK Digital Mortgage Broker Habito: https://www.habito.com Wagmi-san goes 3D, faces Kaiju: https://twitter.com/10ktfshop/status/1540155122164137986?s=21&t=LuyFEoSGjzbHq-6BnQ1fRg 10KTF Puma tie-in: https://twitter.com/10ktfshop/status/1540143603355377664?s=12&t=_bjgOGHKlO2LuEPnfGfclw Yuga Labs’ rebuttal to Bored Ape claims: https://medium.com/@team_69582/a-letter-from-the-founders-678e5a3431e7

Tale of two AIs, DALL·E 2 vs LaMDA, the question of sentience. A brutal week in the markets, we know. Celsius, 3AC and the risk of contagion from CeFi into DeFi (and further). Winter, the market cap of crypto, A16Z powering through. NYC NFT conference coming up and which projects will make it. Links we mentioned: Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu Curated wardrobe selections from Stitch Fix with £15 off: https://www.stitchfix.co.uk/invite/vm34wnrtrw?sod=i&som=c

WWDC chat, with extra on CarPlay, Continuity Camera, Passkey and Apple Pay Later. In Crypto & Markets, ethereum long term, inflation, A16Z’s 4th crypto fund, regulatory developments x 3, and HOP airdrop. We greet NFT winter and take note of Goblins and MeeKicks before closing out with “NFT or The Tiger Who Came to Tea”. Links we mentioned: Our Discord: https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu Mark Andreessen on Bankless explains Web 1 thru 3: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/bankless/id1499409058?i=1000564518979 Clothes which fit like they were tailored with 25% off at Spoke: https://spoke.mention-me.com/m/ol/mz8sc-jonathan-tipper