The Other Hand

'Ireland is a poor country' NO! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tech bubble deflates a little further. More to come? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Has the old Vs young war started? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Market shocks, AI anxiety, cyber risks, and a shaky European backdropThis episode covers a fast-moving mix of markets, macroeconomics, and geopolitics. Chris and Jim move from oil and AI-driven equity volatility to cybersecurity scares, European weakness, UK consumer strain, and the growing pressure on France and the European car industry.The conversation is wide-ranging but tied together by one theme: the future is arriving faster than markets, governments, and businesses seem ready for.Key topicsIn this episode, Chris opens with oil at $114 a barrel and argues the move may reflect supply-demand tightening, stock drawdown, or delayed effects from earlier war-related shocks.They discuss the recent sell-off in AI-linked stocks and the simultaneous rally in US bonds, with lower Treasury yields driven by weak tech sentiment, extreme bearish bond positioning, and a search for safety.Jim highlights Meta’s quarterly results and the market’s growing focus on capital expenditure, compute infrastructure, and return on investment rather than revenue growth alone.The pair examine AI’s role in cybersecurity, including the discovery of major vulnerabilities and the alarming claim that 60% of British SMEs that suffer a successful cyberattack go out of business within six months.They note how AI is being used both to find vulnerabilities and to patch them, raising questions about whether the industry is getting a free marketing boost from each new security scare.Jim brings in inflation and PMI data from Japan and the euro area, showing that price pressure remains persistent while growth is slowing across the continent.France becomes a major focus, with weak PMIs, a budget deficit around 5% of GDP, debt near 119% of GDP, and 10-year borrowing costs above 5%, prompting comparisons with Greece and Spain.The discussion turns to UK consumers, with retail sales down 0.4% on the month and consumer confidence falling sharply, reinforcing the pressure heading into the next budget.They cover the UK mortgage market recovery, with first-time buyers accounting for 57% of Q3 mortgage drawdowns, while also contrasting current activity with the far larger pre-crisis peak.The European car market is framed as being under structural stress from Chinese competition, tariffs, raw material costs, and the EV transition, even as battery electric and hybrid sales continue to grow.Chris and Jim also discuss US tourism weakness, concerns about travel under Trump, and the political and reputational damage this could do to inbound visitor numbers.The episode closes on Ireland’s energy dependence on imported fossil fuels, planning resistance to renewables and data centres, and a furious condemnation of the Trump administration’s rhetoric on Putin. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Jim outlines the backdrop to the UK autumn budget: inflation rising to 3.5%, transport inflation at 6.6%, higher borrowing, and the likelihood of another Bank of England rate increase.The pair discuss the argument that the UK’s strength lies in high value professional services, including consulting, legal work, computer programming, and AI related business investment.They note that UK innovative companies have absorbed more than one-third of European venture capital in the first nine months of the year, reinforcing the case for not damaging the sector with heavier taxes.Jim and Chris revisit the debate over tax complexity, using Tim Harford’s critique of Britain’s “bad taxes” and examples like VAT oddities, National Insurance, and the enormous length of the UK tax code.The conversation highlights how complexity creates demand for tax lawyers and accountants, while AI may eventually let ordinary people search for loopholes or understand the system more easily.In energy, they discuss the UK government’s approval of the Jackdaw gas field and the proposed Rosebank oil field, framing both as pragmatic responses to energy security, jobs, and winter heating needs.They debate the tension between climate goals and the reality that the UK still needs fossil fuels, especially when domestic supply may have lower carbon consequences than importing liquefied gas from overseas.Chris explains that high oil and gas prices may partly reflect countries quietly rebuilding strategic reserves after running them down.The second half shifts to youth mental health, prompted by a Jigsaw report showing increased demand in Ireland for services and a deterioration in young people’s mental health.They explore possible causes: mobile phones, social media, war, housing pressure, job insecurity, AI related anxiety, and the weakening of friendship and community networks.Chris argues that data on mental health is hard to interpret because increased reporting may be driving some of the apparent rise, but he also notes there are real service backlogs, including 400,000 children waiting for mental health support in the UK.The discussion ends on a broader reflection that material living standards have improved over decades, so the explanation for worsening wellbeing may lie more in social connection than in economics alone. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.