Mooney on Irish Politics
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© Derek Mooney
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A sometimes jaundiced, but always informed commentary on today's Irish politics from Derek Mooney, an experienced campaigner, former ministerial adviser and now a public affairs consultant.
108 Episodes
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With Fianna Fáil picking its Aras candidate in 2 days time, Derek looks at how the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party may be about to re-exert its authority by refusing to declare a winner before its votes in secret. The title for this episode from from an old Michael Heseltine anecdote.... it doesn't matter who you say you're voting for.... just so long as you vote for me.
In this episode I discuss the evolving political manoeuvres ahead of the 2025 presidential race. Internal Fine Gael turmoil after the withdrawal of Mairead McGuinness should be a boon for Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil, but their continuing silence limits competition. The field is unlikely to go beyond four contenders... five at most.
Rather than making predictions about what might happen in 2025, I flag some key issues that will arise in the year ahead. Two of which have a distinctively presidential tinge...
In this episode I look again at the prospects for the presidential election and conclude that both the contest poses equal problems for the two biggest parties: Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil.I also dispel the notion that Taoiseach Micheál Martin is considering a run... he means what he says when he says he does not want to run... as Sigmund Freud never said... sometimes a cigar is just a cigar!! I also look briefly at what the college fees row tells us about government incoherence... and the capacity of Tánaiste Simon Harris to bring this government to an untimely end.
In this episode I consider how Northern Ireland and the changes to the triple lock may become issues at the upcoming Irish presidential election.I examine the evolving shifts in Micheál Martin's thinking on Irish unity and his preference for engagement with lapsed nationalists, over unionists and northern nationalists. I set out my problems with the government's proposed reforms of the Triple Lock on Irish Defence deployment... and with the opposition's response. I also explore how the presidential race could influence broader government stability.
In this episode I manage to link quotes from my late mentor Ben Briscoe and the great Lenny Bruce to lead me to a point where the Dáil speaking time and Garron Noone debacles meet... and leave me less than impressed.
In this podcast episode I discuss Taoiseach Micheál Martin's upcoming White House visit, addressing potential challenges such as US demands for Apple's tax money and pressure to buy American military equipment. I don't offer advice, as it is not needed. An Taoiseach, and his diplomatic team, know how to deploy diplomatic caution and avoid public confrontations with the Trump administration. They just need to watch out for VP Vance.
In this episode I critique both the government and opposition tactics in the Dáil speaking row, with each arguing that they should be able to play all across the pitch with the other side confined to their own half. Meanwhile Fine Gael's leadership issues is impacting government stability and messaging. So if FG TDs plan to dump Harris (and I think they do) then better to do it now.
In this episode I chat with Colum Eastwood MP, about the work his New Ireland Commission is doing to drive planning for a new and united Ireland. We delve into the Commission's strategies for engaging with diverse communities, its approach to creating a more prosperous society for all.
Colum mentions (in passing) he is currently writing a book... one to look out for later this year.
In this more security policy focused episode I look at some of the potentially positive elements of the probable Programme for Government (PfG), specifically the justice/law and order ones, and the very definitely negative ones on the defence, particularly the absence of any timeline to fix the decade of neglect.
In this penultimate episode of 2024 I look at 3 recent domestic developments: the first day of the new Dáil, Israel closing its Irish embassy and the Soc Dem ex TD saga and suggest that each has an element of the paradoxical about it... and that paradoxes are (to cite Sr Gertrude via Muriel Spark) is something we must live with.
As the two main parties prepare for coalition talks, I offer Fianna Fáil some thoughts on how that government should be structured:
Rotating Taoiseach 3 years FF + 2 years FG
15 Cabinet places split 8 to 7
FF to retain Finance (merged with D/Per) for 5 years
FF takes Justice
F/T Defence Minister
This is not so much a podcast, but just a rebroadcast of my comments on Times Radio (UK) from early this morning. Though based on the Exit poll which may have understated FF and overstated SF, the broad points remain correct.
It has been my view from the start of the campaign that voters did not feel there was a viable alternative on offer... and that's not healthy for our politics in the medium term... but what might that alternative look like?
After two polls showing Fine Gael in a steady decline has the three horse race become a two horse one with Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin competing fiercely for first place? I discuss this with former Sinn Féin MLA for Lagan Valley, Paul Butler, and get his perspective on the final few days.
Even before the Kanturk fiasco it looked like Fine Gael's highly personalised campaign, built around its leader was in trouble. Harris has just had his Gordon Brown 2010 moment... only this one is much, much worse. Can FG slide back even further? Is it now at risk of coming 3rd?
With just one week to go, I chat with Dr David McCann of the University of Ulster about government formation once the election is over. He suggests that 2.5 / 3 party governments will be the norm from here onwards. I suggest that Sinn Féin should be driving a wedge between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael rather than pushing the FFG line.
With 8 days to geo I chat with old friend and self confessed "liberal hardline centrist" Jason O'Mahony about how he thins the election campaign has gone, so far. We discuss the part that independents may play in government formation and conclude that (counter intuitively) more independents will mean less influence.
With 10 days to go to polling day... I look at last night's RTÉ Upfront 10 podium leaders debate and conclude... there is no shortage of opposition parties... what we don't have is any alternative government.
In this episode I am joined by Stephen Spillane of the Green party. He is a long serving political activist who knows and well understands the Cork political scene.
We do a tour of the 5 Cork constituencies and Stephen offers his insights on what to watch out for, in each.
Check out his Cork GE2024 blog
With 15 days to go… what do we know now that we didn't know before it started… well... not a lot. One of the few things I think we can say for sure is that the voters are not yet fully engaged.
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