The President’s Inbox

This episode unpacks unsettling parallels between today’s increasingly multipolar world and geopolitical conditions on the eve of World War I, and reviews lessons from history about the cost of great-power war.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Odd Arne Westad, the Elihu Professor of History and Global Affairs, Yale University   We Discuss: Why Odd Arne Westad believes that the geopolitical dynamics of 2026 more closely resemble those of 1912 and 1913 than those of 1939 or the Cold War era. How an era of collapsing globalization, rising nationalism, and newly powerful states echoes the conditions in the decades before World War I. How policymakers can learn from history without ransacking it for convenient analogies. Why Europe stumbled into war in 1914 despite deep economic integration. What Christopher Clark’s Sleepwalkers and Norman Angell’s The Great Illusion can still teach about miscalculation. Why nuclear weapons and economic interdependence may be weaker restraints on war than we assume. The similarities between Belgium in WWI and Taiwan today as geopolitical flashpoints, and what Westad learned on a recent trip to Beijing. The three steps Westad would take to keep today’s great powers from sleepwalking into catastrophe.   Mentioned on the Episode: Norman Angell, The Great Illusion, Simpkin, Marshall, Hamilton, Kent & Co. Odd Arne Westad, The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History, Allen Lane Odd Arne Westad, “Trump, Xi, and the Specter of 1914,” Foreign Affairs   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/is-2026-the-new-1914   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode surveys the foreign policy stakes of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, from the Iran war and gas prices to tariffs, Ukraine, and Israel.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guests: Hannah Hartig, Senior Researcher, Pew Research Center Jessica Huseman, Editorial Director, Votebeat   We Discuss: Why the national mood is “sour” heading into the midterms, and how the economy and cost of living dominate voters’ concerns. How to be a smarter consumer of polling data.  Whether foreign interference in the vote count is a real risk, and why Huseman doesn’t worry about tabulation being hacked. How high gas and diesel prices are voters’ primary concern related to the Iran war, and whether they blame Trump for the spike. Why foreign policy has become a more important issue for Democratic voters since 2022 and 2024, though it still ranks behind other concerns.  How tariffs are landing in highly partisan, region-specific ways, from the Midwest to the northern border states facing Canadian tariffs. Where Ukraine and a widening generational divide over Israel fit in, and whether either issue actually moves votes on Election Day.   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/foreign-policy-and-the-2026-midterms   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks America’s strategic stalemate with Iran, Trump’s post-midterm options, and how Tehran and the Gulf see the war.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guests: Cole Bucy, former CIA analyst; former director for Iran at the National Security Council   Nate Swanson, director of the Iran Strategy Project, Atlantic Council   We Discuss: Why the United States has been strategically stuck in the Iran war for months with three bad options: escalate, negotiate, or hold the line. How the U.S. blockade and sanctions have squeezed Iran without cracking the regime. Why no Iranian elite or military defections have appeared and what that says about the regime’s staying power. Whether and how President Trump will “take the gloves off” after the midterms, with options including decapitation strikes and the “mother of all bombs.” How Tehran reads American politics, and whether the midterms are truly the pivot point each side assumes they are. Why China is the hole in the sanctions “siege,” and how Beijing is exposing the limits of Washington’s power.  What Bucy and Swanson would advise the White House to do now, and why the Gulf may hold the key to regional security.    Mentioned on the Episode: Cole Bucy and Nate Swanson, “Trump Unleashed,” Foreign Policy   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-iran-war-and-the-midterms   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the ongoing threat of influence and interference operations posed by Russia, China, and Iran as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Jessica Brandt, Senior Fellow for Technology and National Security, CFR, and former director of the Foreign Malign Influence Center at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence   We Discuss: The difference between foreign “influence” operations and “interference” operations, and why the distinction matters. How Russia, China, and Iran run influence campaigns, from troll farms to the corruption of influential Americans.  Why the intelligence community assesses that no foreign adversary could alter a U.S. vote count “at scale” without detection. What the Tenet Media case revealed about Russia’s ability to covertly fund American influencers. What President Donald Trump has claimed about Chinese interference in 2020 and what the evidence actually shows. How the federal government’s influence-defense apparatus has been scaled back or stood down after being built up through 2024. Why America’s decentralized, paper-backed election system is itself a source of security. Whether AI and “influence-for-hire” firms are about to turbocharge the threat ahead of the 2026 and 2028 elections.   Mentioned on the Episode: “Executive Order 13848: Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election,” The White House “Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company That Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests,” U.S. Department of Justice   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/will-there-be-meddling-in-the-midterms   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks what strategy really is, the seven questions every strategist must ask themselves before initiating a military operation, and why war stays so stubbornly unpredictable.   Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR   Guest: Eliot A. Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics   We Discuss: What strategy can actually accomplish, and whether the outcome of war is ultimately a matter of chance. Why Eliot Cohen adopts a deliberately narrow definition of strategy—and why he has little use for the fashionable term “grand strategy.” The distinction between strategy and planning, and why execution is what separates a strategist from a planner. The seven questions every strategist must ask, from “what else is going on?” to “what is your theory of victory?” Why understanding the adversary—“Who are those guys?”—is a recurring American blind spot, including in the Iran war.  How surprise, groupthink, and the limits of human judgment repeatedly derail even the best-led war efforts. What Carl von Clausewitz meant by describing war as the continuation of politics by other means. Why a classical liberal education may be the best training for judgment in an age of AI.   Mentioned on the Episode: James M. Lindsay, "The 10 Best and 10 Worst U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions," CFR.org Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Princeton University Press Eliot A. Cohen, The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics, Princeton University Press Robert W. Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S.-GVN Performance in Vietnam, RAND Corporation Peter Paret, ed., Makers of Modern Strategy: From Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age, Princeton University Press   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-seven-questions-every-military-strategist-must-ask   Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.